FB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[frank uible]

I was attempting (apparently unsuccessfully) to more or less subtlely make the point that the Heisman is a very poor predictor of QB success in the NFL - not that Graham or Unitas or Brady had a terrific football year in college but to the contrary that these 3 men, each of whom became a much better NFL QB than any Heisman winner has become (admittedly the jury is still out on Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart), were not very close to winning the Heisman (in actuality Unitas and Brady were extremely far, and Graham ran a distant third to Notre Dame QB Angelo Bertelli in 1943).

[victorybell_57]

i heard ya loud and clear large man frank. let's face it, the nfl offenses may be less complex but more wordy or more complex and more wordy than the college ones, and the game moves faster. add that up with a 6'6 285 DE running a 4.6 coming after your butt, you better know where the dump off receiver is. in most cases, tom brady knows and akili smith didn't (and cough, cough, ryan leaf).

however, in my opinion, i think some qb's don't have a shot at making it in the nfl because the offenses some teams run are brutal. hard to average 1.9 a rush on first and second down, and throw third and 9 each series. on top of that, there are some awfully vanilla offenses in the nfl ever since free agency. i think about every defensive player in the league knows your top 8 passes. just another reason why i like the college game more and more. i used to love the sugar huddle, the west coast 9r's, three amigos, etc... now, it's all the same.

[frank uible]

To sum it up - Cleveland's chance of finding and ultimately selecting a specific QB, who is available in the 2nd round of the draft and who is of sufficient NFL quality to actually lead them "out of the woods", is not good. The fact that the QB is a Heisman trophy winner improves that chance to no or extremely little extent.

[70_dc_alum]

i dont know if i would say the jury is still out on Palmer.  2 straight pro bowls, Peyton Manning he is not yet but i dont think he is still bust material either.

smith is going to be a bit of a project in the NFL.  i dont think he has Vince Young's mobility so i dont think he will be nearly as allusive since he will no longer be juking fat d-takles from indiana anymore.  Size can be overcome but imagine all 5'10" of smith playing at Dallas with someone like Leonard Davis at 6'8"370 at gaurd.  hell even Steinbach is 6'7".

if the browns were smart they would trade down a few spots to let someone pickup peterson if they dont want him take a few extra picks and still get Johnson or Brady quinn later in the first round.  likely they will pick up peterson and let him spend a year under Lewis and then be the long term future.  too much upside there to pass on with the shear physicality of the AFC North.

[victorybell_57]

good comments, but i think the jury is closed on carson palmer. from all the talk around the league, he is the team leader and one the players respect a lot. in terms of football, many receivers (and those in the pro bowl) say he throws a great ball and knows the passing game very well. while he sucked for a few years at usc, i think he is proving he is going to be a great qb. now, if they can keep their troublemakers out of jail and get a few more pieces of the puzzle, they could be in the super bowl this year. they should have been two years ago before palmer hurt his knee.

i'm not holding much stock in troy smith. he could however, be steamin willie beamin in a few years. maybe he'll get the ladies creamin.

[Mr. Ypsi]

In fairness to Troy Smith, he also totally destroyed my beloved Wolverines the last two years, and Alan Branch, LaMarr Woodley, et. al., will hardly be mistaken for "fat d-tackles from Indiana"!

God, it is painful to stick up for a Buckeye!

[frank uible]

Palmer's NFL career is probably about 1/3 complete, and he has not yet lead the Bengals any place of major importance as had Graham and Unitas and Brady after 4 years.

[Adam Sayer]

That is why football is the ultimate team game. Dan Fouts never made it anywhere big...but he was a heck of a QB. Dan Marino got to the Super Bowl once...in his 2nd year.

I think Troy Smith is definately a work in progress. But here's what he has going for him.
- Athletic - He's no Vince Young, but he's plenty capable to move around in the pocket and creat throwing lanes. Drew Brees is of similar height and less mobility, and he's done alright in The League.
- Willing to listen/learn - Juding by his attempts to become a more 'throwing' QB rather than a running QB shows me he's trying to get the best out of himself. He many opportunities to make highlight reel runs, but gave it up to make the pass (Penn State???) Something I think Tressel had been asking for.
- 2nd Round Pick - He may have won the Heisman, but there's not a lot of pressure. He won't be asked to step right in and run an NFL offense. He's not being listed with the names of Jamarcus Russell or Brady Quinn. The pressure to produce is on them. He'll have time to sit and learn (ala Carson Palmer). If he was a Top 5 pick, there would be more pressure to play him and ruin him (ala David Klingler).
- Athletic - I already covered this, but if QB doesn't work out, he's athletic enough to play a role similar to that of Antwaan Randle-El. Remember, OSU recruited him as an athlete. They didn't know where he would play.

My personal thoughts on Brady Quinn is he may have maximized his talents. I don't see him getting much better than he already is because he's had 2 years playing in a pro-style offense of a Superbowl Winning OC and wasn't great. Charlie Weiss has spent 2 years preparing him for the NFl and he struggled against USC, Michigan, and LSU. Great college teams, but not what he's going to see on Sunday. Personally, I think he will be the next Ryan Leaf.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Adam,

Yeah, I forgot to mention that the same Wolverines who were destroyed by Smith made Quinn look less than average.

I have no clue as to which will prove the better NFL QB (if either), but if it were based solely on common opponent Michigan, it would be no contest!

[SaintsFAN]

I think you guys are being a bit too hard on Quinn....yes he didn't play well against the better teams on the schedule....thats also because he and the WR's had to pick up the slack for the defense that wasn't able to stop even the Navy's of the world.  Thats a fact....I think what NFL teams love the most about Quinn is the intellectual aspects of his game...he knows the game inside and out.  Kind of like Peyton Manning did at Tennessee.  Manning was another guy that couldn't win the big game in college.....but he's learned how to win the big games at the Pro level.

The one thing I'd really be concerned about Smith is his hunger.  I watched the QBs at the combine and Smith was admittedly out of shape?  What?  Are you kidding....how many of us would have shown up out of shape for the biggest job interview of our lives in Indianapolis?

[frank uible]

If one is a new Heisman trophy winner, then one gets a lot of opportunities for rubber chicken, lumpy mashed potatoes and frozen peas.

[victorybell_57]

it may be unfair to compare guys to unitas and graham. different league then where a few superstars could control the game. they didn't have off-season programs and guys developing like they do now. some guys don't get their careers going until after 4-5 seasons if they can stay in it. now, brady was the man. and his team was great, while he was good he didn't have to win it by himself. his teams were average for michigan's standards in college, and he proved he could be good in the pro's with a good team. joe montana looked average in college against better teams also. i think he beat houston in a bowl game, houston isn't a usc or michigan. quinn's teams at ND are average, and played navy and other bottom rungers. he is a good qb and could be just like brady in the pro's, if he has a supporting cast.

troy smith, hey, let's wait and see. i would like to see him do well, but he needs a team. team game is right on this topic. you can't choose what team to go to like in college. he may get a great chance with a team like the bears, or be picked up to be the savior of a scrub team. brady had an opportunity to go to a good team as well. all i know is, akili smith sucks.

[frank uible]

Have not been making that comparison. See post #392 for my point.

[M and L]

In terms of the NFL mold so to speak, I just don't see Smith fitting in.  Hey had great talent to play collegiate ball.  but does he really have what it takes to play at the next level?  I'm not all that the convienced with him nor Brady Quinn.  I think that Quinn has more potienial and with the right mentor and coaching he can produce much like that of Joey Harrington or something to that effect.

Refering back to the BCS game (I know it is just one game, but he played that bad), He didn't look like a pocket passer at all or couldn't get a read right to save his life.  Nor a pass block to offer protection either.

With the given surronding on the field I thought Quinn produced more than Smith, throwing all stats out the window.

We still haven't talked about the QB who is going to the first choosen in the draft---- and that is the Kid from LSU

[M and L]

Sayer, Lets be practical here, effort gets it done 99% of time.  But ability combined with effort is going to get you to the NFL as everyone knows.  But how smart is he in terms of X's and O's. 

How well rounded is he?

Besided, i'm seeing a lot of OSU bias here