FB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[HansenRatings]

I'll tell you this much. That fancy computer simulator you're using can't figure out Franklin plays 10 games, not 9.

Good luck to all this year.

Just wonder if per chance the model doesn't include the Griz-Butler game due to divisional disparity?

Exactly. My model is DIII only. No out-of-division opponents are included.

[dc_has_been]

Thanks for sharing HansenRatings!

Will this change as the season goes on?

[HansenRatings]

Thanks for sharing HansenRatings!

Will this change as the season goes on?

It has actually already changed. Once Kickoff came out, I was able to update each team's ratings, adjusting for # of returning starters, and I re-ran the simulation. You can check out my updated conference predictions here:
http://loganahansen21.wixsite.com/hansen-ratings/single-post/2016/08/24/Kickoff-16-Predictions
and here:
https://loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

[dc_has_been]

Thanks for sharing HansenRatings!

Will this change as the season goes on?

It has actually already changed. Once Kickoff came out, I was able to update each team's ratings, adjusting for # of returning starters, and I re-ran the simulation. You can check out my updated conference predictions here:
http://loganahansen21.wixsite.com/hansen-ratings/single-post/2016/08/24/Kickoff-16-Predictions
and here:
https://loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

Great stuff and thanks for sharing!  Love the data!

I like that the HCAC has two teams in the top 100 for DIII.  It is a step in the right direction having two teams some recognition.  Now all of our teams need to start winning their non-conference games and get the conference ranking up a few spots!

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Thanks for sharing HansenRatings!

Will this change as the season goes on?

It has actually already changed. Once Kickoff came out, I was able to update each team's ratings, adjusting for # of returning starters, and I re-ran the simulation. You can check out my updated conference predictions here:
http://loganahansen21.wixsite.com/hansen-ratings/single-post/2016/08/24/Kickoff-16-Predictions
and here:
https://loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

Great stuff and thanks for sharing!  Love the data!

I like that the HCAC has two teams in the top 100 for DIII.  It is a step in the right direction having two teams some recognition.  Now all of our teams need to start winning their non-conference games and get the conference ranking up a few spots!

Maybe we can get some games vs the UMAC to help out in non-conference... we might actually be favorites in a few games

[sigma one]

HansenRatings:  you might want to check your DIII football rankings v. Hansen rankings.  A bunch of your DIII numbers don't match up with what I see on Kickoff.  Start with the Michigan conference, but I noticed others as well. 
        It will be interesting as DIII moves through the season to discover how the two sets of rankings play out game by game.
        Thanks for providing another aspect to DIII.   
        While I'm at it:  kudos to Pat and the gang for another year of fascinating pre-season coverage.  The human-interest stories are particularly noteworthy--not to discount all the hard work that goes into team previews and rankings as well. 

[Pat Coleman]

I believe he takes our rankings and removes the NESCAC teams before comparing them to his.

[sigma one]

Thanks, Pat. 

[HansenRatings]

Pat's correct. Can't include NESCAC in computer rankings w/o mutual opponents.

[sigma one]

Understood, Hansen.

[dc_has_been]

For any of you that are interested, DC's preview:

http://www.defianceathletics.com/football/news/2016-17/4479/2016-football-preview/

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Franklin down 14-25 at halftime to Thomas More... I feel like it's been a fairly close half. Grizzlies were stopped on a 4th and goal, TMC broke a couple big plays with the option and returned an interception deep. Other than that it's been an excellent back and forth game.
Grizzlies running game still not great against top teams, but at least it's moving forward and getting 2-3 yards consistently rather than getting stuffed for a loss.

Hopefully our favorite MSJ antagonist SaintsFAN is a little less happy in a couple hours

[SaintsFAN]

Congrats to Franklin.  You can't give the ball away on 1st and goal with 3 minutes left when you are trying to ice the game. 

Made too many mistakes tonight to win.  And the kicking game was terrible.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

That was a heck of a game. Great job both teams. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an encore performance in a few months.
Now I can breathe again and look forward to Butler next week

[GRIZ_BACKER]

Congrats to Franklin.  You can't give the ball away on 1st and goal with 3 minutes left when you are trying to ice the game. 

Made too many mistakes tonight to win.  And the kicking game was terrible.

TM may have run out of gas a bit in the 4th Qtr. Franklin kept after it and laid the wood in the second half. Down 32-14 after 15 seconds played in the second half. 29-7 differential after that. The GRIZ rolled up over 600 yards of offense on the Saints. We will see what we have for Butler next week. Great game by both teams. Great crowd and a lot of action and drama. Couldn't ask for a better atmosphere or game.