FB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Dr. Acula]

The fact that Wooster is not even on that list is not comforting if I'm a Grizz fan.

I'm basing this on only seeing Wabash play twice (HS, Witt) but if I'm a Franklin fan my best case scenario is:  sell out to stop the run, force 3rd and long and hope that Putko makes a couple mistakes that give me a short field, convert those turnovers into points.  A lot of moving pieces there, but they can't let Wabash run the ball at will or else it's not going to go well at all IMO.  It keeps the Wabash D fresh, it eats the clock and, in turn, adds even more pressure on the Franklin offense to put points up on each of their limited number of drives.  That's not a recipe for success.   

 

[firstdown]

The fact that Wooster is not even on that list is not comforting if I'm a Grizz fan.

I'm basing this on only seeing Wabash play twice (HS, Witt) but if I'm a Franklin fan my best case scenario is:  sell out to stop the run, force 3rd and long and hope that Putko makes a couple mistakes that give me a short field, convert those turnovers into points.  A lot of moving pieces there, but they can't let Wabash run the ball at will or else it's not going to go well at all IMO.  It keeps the Wabash D fresh, it eats the clock and, in turn, adds even more pressure on the Franklin offense to put points up on each of their limited number of drives.  That's not a recipe for success.   

Dr Acula - you are describing Wittenberg's game plan which worked because of their high quality defense.  It is going to be very difficult for a defense ranked 200 in Division 3 to duplicate this. 

[Dr. Acula]

Agreed.  I'm not saying it's likely, but it's still their best chance.  They need short fields somehow.  Turnovers, punt returns, something.   

[SaintsFAN]

The fact that Wooster is not even on that list is not comforting if I'm a Grizz fan.

I'm basing this on only seeing Wabash play twice (HS, Witt) but if I'm a Franklin fan my best case scenario is:  sell out to stop the run, force 3rd and long and hope that Putko makes a couple mistakes that give me a short field, convert those turnovers into points.  A lot of moving pieces there, but they can't let Wabash run the ball at will or else it's not going to go well at all IMO.  It keeps the Wabash D fresh, it eats the clock and, in turn, adds even more pressure on the Franklin offense to put points up on each of their limited number of drives.  That's not a recipe for success.   

Dr Acula - you are describing Wittenberg's game plan which worked because of their high quality defense.  It is going to be very difficult for a defense ranked 200 in Division 3 to duplicate this.

right -- but if you had the players and season Franklin has had ... what would YOU do differently from THAT?  That's the recipe used to hand Wabash their only defeat in 2014.   I don't think Franklin wins this game, but their only shot is stop the run and hope the Wabash QB makes some mistakes. 

I think BashDad's 31-17 is about right.

[firstdown]

SaintsFan

The long range forecast for Saturday in C'Ville is for rain and drizzle with temp's in the 40's.  While it is true that a slippery football can take some funny bounces, it also impacts the passing game to a degree.  Wabash does have its ground attack to rely upon, with Holmes and Zurek being pretty sure handed and will eat up a lot of yardage and clock.  Wabash faced similar conditions at Hiram a couple of weeks ago  and handled it pretty well.

[GrizFan]

Of course the Grizzlies are underdogs, they are on the road in the playoffs! 

I think 31-17 is about right. 

However, the GRIZ were also 14-21 point underdogs going into the Otterbein (only loss was to UMU) playoff game in 2008 (a 62-45 GRIZ win), a 21 point underdog at undefeated #5 North Central in 2008 playoff (a 38-28 GRIZ win), a 14 point underdog at Adrian in 2012 playoffs (a 41-10 GRIZ win), and we were also told that the GRIZ shouldn't expect to win home playoff games against Thomas More (2011) and Wash U (top 10 defense in 2013) - both Grizzly victories! 

I am just hoping for a good, safe game and a game which makes Indiana football proud!   

[wally_wabash]

Of course the Grizzlies are underdogs, they are on the road in the playoffs! 

I think 31-17 is about right. 

However, the GRIZ were also 14-21 point underdogs going into the Otterbein (only loss was to UMU) playoff game in 2008 (a 62-45 GRIZ win), a 21 point underdog at undefeated #5 North Central in 2008 playoff (a 38-28 GRIZ win), a 14 point underdog at Adrian in 2012 playoffs (a 41-10 GRIZ win), and we were also told that the GRIZ shouldn't expect to win home playoff games against Thomas More (2011) and Wash U (top 10 defense in 2013) - both Grizzly victories! 

I am just hoping for a good, safe game and a game which makes Indiana football proud!

Wait, what?  Who told you Franklin shouldn't beat Washington last year?  That person isn't credible and you need to reevaluate your relationship with that person. 

Also not sure that the -14 against Adrian was a real thing.  The others I can kind of see (the 2008 line vs. Ott is weird, but to be honest, y'all were still not quite getting the shine you deserved in 2008). 

If the Grizz get 62 on Saturday, I'll rock an FC avatar until the champion is crowned in Salem. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Of course the Grizzlies are underdogs, they are on the road in the playoffs! 

I think 31-17 is about right. 

However, the GRIZ were also 14-21 point underdogs going into the Otterbein (only loss was to UMU) playoff game in 2008 (a 62-45 GRIZ win), a 21 point underdog at undefeated #5 North Central in 2008 playoff (a 38-28 GRIZ win), a 14 point underdog at Adrian in 2012 playoffs (a 41-10 GRIZ win), and we were also told that the GRIZ shouldn't expect to win home playoff games against Thomas More (2011) and Wash U (top 10 defense in 2013) - both Grizzly victories! 

I am just hoping for a good, safe game and a game which makes Indiana football proud!

Wait, what?  Who told you Franklin shouldn't beat Washington last year?  That person isn't credible and you need to reevaluate your relationship with that person. 

Also not sure that the -14 against Adrian was a real thing.  The others I can kind of see (the 2008 line vs. Ott is weird, but to be honest, y'all were still not quite getting the shine you deserved in 2008). 

If the Grizz get 62 on Saturday, I'll rock an FC avatar until the champion is crowned in Salem.

I love when the "disrespect" card gets played when it isn't a real thing.

The Griz definitely were underdogs in the 2008 games.  Maybe even in the 2011 game vs. Thomas More.

No way they were a 14-point dog vs. Adrian in 2012.  That Adrian team lost its opener to Carthage, squeaked its way to the MIAA title, and won its last two regular-season games by a single point both times.  Who had them favored by 14 points in a playoff game?

WashU last year...I thought that game was a toss-up (which, ya know, it was).  WashU's defense was legit.  But I didn't see anyone saying that Franklin was an underdog in the game.

The "NOBODY BELIEVES IN US" card is a powerful thing, to be sure, but it's kind of funny to see this revisionist history.  Franklin was not an underdog in ALL of those games.  Some, sure.

[Pat Coleman]

2013 Franklin playoff team capsule:
How far can they go?   Depends on whether Week 1 Franklin or Week 10 Franklin shows up.

2012 Franklin playoff team capsule:
How far can they go?   One win is possible.

2011 Franklin playoff team capsule:
How far can they go?   Well, they know what the road looks like. And UW-Whitewater gets a return game.

[Pat Coleman]

Oops, also found this from Triple Take 2013:

Ryan's take: Washington U. 28, Franklin 24
Keith's take: Franklin 28, Washington U. 23
Pat's take: Franklin 18, Washington U. 14
Consensus: Split decision, a toss-up.

[sigma one]

As long as we are striving for accuracy, yes, that was the Witt game plan.  Here's how it worked out.  Wabash total offense, 352; Witt, 216.  Wabash passing 129; Witt, 157 (more than 100 yards below their average per game).  Wabash rushing, 223 (so much for crowding the LOS); Witt, 59.  Wabash sacked Jenkins 6X
     Wittenberg won on a blocked punt and a resulting very short field, and then picked up a fumble and returned it for a TD.  They had one long drive, resulting in a TD, in the second half.  That accounts for their 21 points.  To their credit, despite the huge discrepancy in yards, they were opportunistic.  And they did keep Wabash out of the end zone successfully.  A crucial holding call deep in Witt territory late in the game when Wabash had run for a 1st down also helped them. So it goes. 

[BashDad]

Let's just take a couple more whacks at this Franklin defense.

These are the teams who had their best or second best offensive performance against the Grizzlies:

IWU       (495 yards; 2nd most on the year; +123 against their offensive average)
UWW     (548; 2nd; +75)
Anderson    (349; 2nd; +87)
Earlham     (424; 2nd; +74)
Hanover     (590; 2nd; +195)

The rest of their schedule:

Bluffton       (270; 8th best; -86)
Manchester    (480; 5th; +34)
Mt St Jo       (450; 3rd; +1)
Rose-Hulman    (370; 9th; -127)
Defiance       (351; 4th; +7)

So.

In half their games, Franklin allowed for an opponent's second best offensive performance of the season. 

In 8 games, they allowed an opponent to exceed their season offensive average. The margin was, on average, +75. In other words, Franklin's opponent usually improved on their season average by around 75 yards. 

You see where this is going, I'm sure. Wabash's offensive average is 449 yards a game. This is what they've done:

1. Allegheny    (611 yards) Wab: +162 v offensive avg               Allegheny +129 vs their defensive avg
2. Oberlin       (604) Wab: +155                                 Oberlin: +144
3. OWU       (511) Wab: +61                                   OWU: +103
4. Hiram       (489) Wab: +40                                   Hiram: +70
5. Kenyon       (425) Wab: -24                                      Kenyon: +18
6. Denison    (413) Wab: -36                                      Denison: +78
7. Depauw    (397) Wab: -52                                      Depauw: +87
8. Wooster      (364) Wab: -85                                Wooster: -30
9. Wittenberg    (352) Wab: -97                                      Wittenberg: +75
10. HSC       (321) Wab: -128                                  HSC: -50

In each game, Wabash remained roughly 100 yards from their offensive average in both directions. Their highest output was 611; lowest was 321. 

In 8 games, Wabash produced more offense than their opponent's defensive average (including Wittenberg, the best defense they faced all year). The margin was, on average, +72. In other words, Wabash usually produced around 72 more yards than an opponent was accustomed to giving up. 

Franklin gives up an average of 431 yards of total offense. 

1. Let's presume that Franklin allows, as they have 8 times this season, Wabash to gain 75 more yards than their season average. That would be 524 yards.

2. Let's presume that Wabash produces, as they have done 8 times this season (including against the best opponent they've faced), 72 more yards than their opponent is accustomed to. Against Franklin, that would be 503 yards.

3. Let's guess that, as over half Franklin's opponent's have done, Wabash produces at least their third highest offensive total of the year. That would be 511 yards.

Seeing a pattern here?

Guess what the average amount of points Wabash scores in games where they produce over 500 yards.

It's 60.

For Franklin to keep it close, they better hope for turnovers and big chunks of yards.

[GrizFan]

Let's just take a couple more whacks at this Franklin defense.

These are the teams who had their best or second best offensive performance against the Grizzlies:

IWU       (495 yards; 2nd most on the year; +123 against their offensive average)
UWW     (548; 2nd; +75)
Anderson    (349; 2nd; +87)
Earlham     (424; 2nd; +74)
Hanover     (590; 2nd; +195)

The rest of their schedule:

Bluffton       (270; 8th best; -86)
Manchester    (480; 5th; +34)
Mt St Jo       (450; 3rd; +1)
Rose-Hulman    (370; 9th; -127)
Defiance       (351; 4th; +7)

So.

In half their games, Franklin allowed for an opponent's second best offensive performance of the season.

In 8 games, they allowed an opponent to exceed their season offensive average. The margin was, on average, +75. In other words, Franklin's opponent usually improved on their season average by around 75 yards.

You see where this is going, I'm sure. Wabash's offensive average is 449 yards a game. This is what they've done:

1. Allegheny    (611 yards) Wab: +162 v offensive avg               Allegheny +129 vs their defensive avg
2. Oberlin       (604) Wab: +155                                 Oberlin: +144
3. OWU       (511) Wab: +61                                   OWU: +103
4. Hiram       (489) Wab: +40                                   Hiram: +70
5. Kenyon       (425) Wab: -24                                      Kenyon: +18
6. Denison    (413) Wab: -36                                      Denison: +78
7. Depauw    (397) Wab: -52                                      Depauw: +87
8. Wooster      (364) Wab: -85                                Wooster: -30
9. Wittenberg    (352) Wab: -97                                      Wittenberg: +75
10. HSC       (321) Wab: -128                                  HSC: -50

In each game, Wabash remained roughly 100 yards from their offensive average in both directions. Their highest output was 611; lowest was 321.

In 8 games, Wabash produced more offense than their opponent's defensive average (including Wittenberg, the best defense they faced all year). The margin was, on average, +72. In other words, Wabash usually produced around 72 more yards than an opponent was accustomed to giving up.

Franklin gives up an average of 431 yards of total offense.

1. Let's presume that Franklin allows, as they have 8 times this season, Wabash to gain 75 more yards than their season average. That would be 524 yards.

2. Let's presume that Wabash produces, as they have done 8 times this season (including against the best opponent they've faced), 72 more yards than their opponent is accustomed to. Against Franklin, that would be 503 yards.

3. Let's guess that, as over half Franklin's opponent's have done, Wabash produces at least their third highest offensive total of the year. That would be 511 yards.

Seeing a pattern here?

Guess what the average amount of points Wabash scores in games where they produce over 500 yards.

It's 60.

For Franklin to keep it close, they better hope for turnovers and big chunks of yards.

I agree the FC defense is young and not very good.  Franklin has never really had a great defense, they are built to score points.  I would throw out the IWU game as a reference.  The Titans have an excellent starting QB (Jack Warner) and he missed the next four and a half games with an injury.  IWU alternated two WRs at QB during that span and they generated very little offense.

[Pat Coleman]

Actually, they played a cornerback under center in one of those games. That was pretty widely discussed.

[bashbrother]

So it seems to be fairly straight forward....   Franklin's offense needs to score a ton of points on a good/great Wabash defense that has not given up more than 21 to any team this year.

Turnovers, timely Wabash penalties and maybe a trick play or two might be needed to level this playing field in this one.   Leonard is a smart/good coach and I am sure he will get his team as ready as they can be for what they will face on Saturday.

Wish the game was tomorrow.