FB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[BashDad]

But, like I said yesterday, you rattled off a bunch of 2014 statistics and gut-feeling stuff that predicted a big Wabash win over Wittenberg...and Wabash totally outplayed Wittenberg in the box score...and yet, the winner of that game still goes down as Wittenberg.  If it can happen once, it can happen again.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[BashDad]

As a child bASSdad was the one Pee Wee Herman modeled himself after  "I know you are but what am I"

What?

[BashDad]

The headline of game story describing Franklin's win over Wabash:

Crazy Poop Happened. A Lot of Crazy Poop.

[ExTartanPlayer]

The headline of game story describing Franklin's win over Wabash:

Crazy Poop Happened. A Lot of Crazy Poop.

Attempting to be ever-so-slightly more serious:

We've identified that

1. Wabash has a strong running game
2. Putko has done great in most games...and not so great in one big game
3. Wabash has a really good defense
4. Franklin's defense isn't very good
5. Franklin's offense is very good

Thus, Wabash wins the game if they do one or more of the following things:

1. Play as well as they usually do on defense
2. Run the ball as well as they usually do (and don't need to pass)
3. If Franklin commits 10 guys to the box to shut down the run, score the ball via the pass

If any or all of those things happen, Wabash probably wins.  Thus, the ways in which Franklin could conceivably win the game:

1. Somehow manage to stop the run & hope Putko has a bad day (and X-factor Rice either does the same or doesn't play)
2. If #1 cannot be accomplished, score a lot of points

I expect, much as you do, that Wabash will be able to run, will play enough defense to slow the Grizz offense, and will win something like 31-21.  But it's certainly within the realm of possibility that Franklin will make it a game through one of a hundred different ways that a game can end up closer than the "on paper" says it should be: they might chuck it really well, their defensive coordinator might show up with a box of magic beans that he passes out to the defense before the game, the Wabash kicker could slip on a banana peel during an extra point, who knows.

[wabashcpa]

No scarlet glasses on here - I think Franklin will give Wabash all they want.

1.  Franklin will not be intimidated by Wabash - let's face it, most NCAC games are over before the kickoff.  The one game the last two years where someone actually hit back, Wabash hasn't fared so well.  And Franklin has played teams better than Wabash the last several years.  They will show up ready to play.

2.  Leonard isn't even going to waste time running the ball - expect Welp's arm to fall off by the time the game is over.  If Franklin can protect him at all, that could be trouble.  How good is our pass defense, really?  Who has tested it since Week 1?  This could be like an old Wabash-Hanover matchup - first team to 50 wins.  And yes, I know, Wabash hasn't given up more than 21 all year.  I think Franklin scores more.

3.  Can Putko carry a team to victory if needed?  Do you really have faith in this?  I'm not sold.

Wabash wins with ball-control offense - run, run, and run some more, and keep Franklin's offense of the field.  Wabash wins by putting insane pressure on Welp and speeding up his decision making and forcing mistakes.  Wabash wins by not shooting themselves in the foot with dumb penalties.

At the end of the day, I think Wabash is the better team and will win, but I definitely give Franklin a puncher's chance.  I think Leonard has earned that.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

No scarlet glasses on here - I think Franklin will give Wabash all they want.

1.  Franklin will not be intimidated by Wabash - let's face it, most NCAC games are over before the kickoff.  The one game the last two years where someone actually hit back, Wabash hasn't fared so well.  And Franklin has played teams better than Wabash the last several years.  They will show up ready to play.

2.  Leonard isn't even going to waste time running the ball - expect Welp's arm to fall off by the time the game is over.  If Franklin can protect him at all, that could be trouble.  How good is our pass defense, really?  Who has tested it since Week 1?  This could be like an old Wabash-Hanover matchup - first team to 50 wins.  And yes, I know, Wabash hasn't given up more than 21 all year.  I think Franklin scores more.

3.  Can Putko carry a team to victory if needed?  Do you really have faith in this?  I'm not sold.

Wabash wins with ball-control offense - run, run, and run some more, and keep Franklin's offense of the field.  Wabash wins by putting insane pressure on Welp and speeding up his decision making and forcing mistakes.  Wabash wins by not shooting themselves in the foot with dumb penalties.

At the end of the day, I think Wabash is the better team and will win, but I definitely give Franklin a puncher's chance.  I think Leonard has earned that.

+k  fair assessment IMO.  Each team has the things they do well.  which one can most effectively limit the other is the question.  My line still stands at Wabash by 7 or 8.

[BashBacker#16]

WabashCPA,

Seriously?

  "This could be like an old Wabash-Hanover matchup - first team to 50 wins."

No way.

Welp will be running for his life.  I can't wait to see the Bash D vs the FC O but I just can't get past the Bash O vs FC D.  They give up 500+ yards a game!  That's just crazy.  Game plan?

Also, I'm not saying they will be intimidated either but that won't factor in much at all - not in the outcome.

[wabashcpa]

Seriously.

You think Leonard is going to call 7 step drop back pass plays all day?  If so, you're right.  I'm thinking more quick hitters to neutralize the pass rush.  Does Wabash blitz linebackers or drop them into coverage?  I think Wabash pass D is vulnerable, especially with Woods out.  And I think Leonard is a pretty good offensive coach.  If there is a weakness to exploit, he will find it.  Can the Grizzlies execute it?  We will find out.  If they can, expect a lot of points.  If not, then you are correct.

[BashBacker#16]

WabashCPA,

You're posting in true Phi Psi fashion.  Leonard is a very good coach, I'm not saying that at all.  But, for you to think the Grizzlies will be running up and down the field is nuts.  Have other teams tried the catch and throw approach?  You think Pettiford will be sitting back in a 10 yard cushion?  Do you think the Bash D will close in hurry before a big gain?  How good is Griffith?  Cmehil?

Wabash isn't any of the following:  Manchester, Rose-Hulman (great D btw), Hanover, Defiance, Blufton, Anderson, Mt St Joe, etc.  They're far from it. 

We will see.  I'm giving Franklin 21 points which includes a late score.  I'm giving Wabash 49.  This D is one of the best we've ever had - and we've had some really good ones!

WAF

[wabashcpa]

Hope you're right.  We will find out how good the secondary is.  I know they are good at run support, jury still out (to me) on defending an all-out air attack, which is what I think they will see.  Lord knows I hope Brown gets 3 picks (Griffith represent!) and Wabash wins by 4 scores.  I just don't think Wabash has had to worry about seriously defending the pass since Week 1.

Have no idea what posting in true Phi Psi fashion means, but that was funny.  If that means I am an alarmist, then so be it.  I just don't see us rolling these guys.

[firstdown]

Wabashcpa  how many games did you attend this year? Holton Walker of H-S is likely the best wide receiver in Division 3.  Go ask Nash if he thinks the Wabash defense is for real.  Wabash is leading Division 3 in quarterback sacks for a reason, a quarterback lying on the ground isn't a very effective passer.  An all out passing attack might work if Wabash doesn't bring the heat.  It has a lot of speed - have you watched the Buresh brothers at work, Tyler McCullen running down the DePauw quarterback last week, AJ and Austin, and the rest of the defense?  Wabash brings constant pressure on the quarterback from all directions - the d line, line backers and defensive backs.

[wabashcpa]

How many games I attended is completely irrelevant to the discussion.  But, since you asked, the answer is 2 - left at halftime both games because they were non-competitive (Allegheny, Oberlin).  Watched the H-S game online and DVR'd the Bell Game, which I have subsequently watched.  To your point on H-S, Walker is a stud and caught 2 TDs, with very little help from others.  And yes, Nance ran for his life much of the game.  Probably not going out on much of a limb to say Franklin doesn't have a guy like Walker - no idea how Welp compares to Nance.  I am guessing Franklin will spread it around a little better, and that they will use the passing game as a pseudo running attack - lots of short passes to keep the chains moving.  Not sure they will have much choice, because, as has been discussed repeatedly, Welp probably won't have much time to sit in the pocket, and I don't think their running game will be of major concern.  But, they must be doing something right - yeah, the HCAC isn't great, but they still ran the table and scored a ton of points, so I wouldn't discount Leonard's ability to game plan for Saturday and figure out a way to move the chains.  They also gave up enough points that they know they are going to have to score a bunch this game, because they aren't keeping Wabash out of the end zone consistently.  They may try to control time-of-possession to keep their defense off the field.  If they can accomplish these things, they have a puncher's chance - that is all I am saying. At no point in any of this discussion did I say Wabash is doomed.  Just that Franklin will prove to be a tougher opponent than I think some of you think possible.  Hey, if our defense is all that, then pitch a shutout Saturday.  THAT will get people talking.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I"m away for a couple days and this board actually has activity

Throwing my two cents on some of the stuff I've read

Franklin does give up more points than it should to teams that the best would likely shut out, but they don't seem to let the elite rack up 70 on them either. I expect Wabash to put up somewhere around 40. The big question is how much can Franklin score. Against weaker teams the offense has managed to put up enough to win, against the best they struggle to get anywhere close.

The key to the game I've learned from the past several years is the 1st quarter Franklin offense. In big games (UWW, Mount Union, UMHB) the offense has had a tendency to start off the first few drives with a 3 and out, an interception, and a drive with 1 first down. Meanwhile the defense can't get a stop and by the end of the 1st it's 21-0 and Franklin never gets it much closer (there was the comeback against Mount in 2012 so it's not impossible).

I'm not sure where my fellow Grizzly was getting some of those playoff lines. The 2012 Adrian game was absolutely a coin flip (was shocked by how easy Franklin won), while 2013 WashU I didn't think Franklin should have got a home game but they did and it was another close call to pick.

I will play the underdog card because that's what they are in this game, but Franklin gets plenty of respect. It's a team that has regularly been ranked the past few years from a conference that is generally rather weak and had no national success prior. They're one of a handful of schools who can claim a playoff win in each of the last three years. Anyone who thinks Franklin gets as much respect as Rodney Dangerfield doesn't really know what's going on.

If I was setting a line on this game for the pickem I think I'd end up with it around 20.5 but of course I'd have to side with Franklin. This first round game is going to be tougher than the past few years.

Hopefully the Grizzlies can pull off the win and get to see our Warhawk friends yet again. Good luck to both sides on Saturday (with a little more luck to Franklin )

[BashBacker#16]

WabashCPA,

I knew you would like the Phi Psi remark!   

Correction:  I meant Brown (from Griffith) not Griffith. 

I think Welp will be a little frustrated with coverage (little separation) and that forces him to hold the ball longer than he should...then you know what's coming!  Buresh gets pub but his 33 sacks this season have been very impressive.  They'll be flying around.

We shall see.

[SaintsFAN]

Seriously.

You think Leonard is going to call 7 step drop back pass plays all day?  If so, you're right.  I'm thinking more quick hitters to neutralize the pass rush.  Does Wabash blitz linebackers or drop them into coverage?  I think Wabash pass D is vulnerable, especially with Woods out.  And I think Leonard is a pretty good offensive coach.  If there is a weakness to exploit, he will find it.  Can the Grizzlies execute it?  We will find out.  If they can, expect a lot of points.  If not, then you are correct.

Bingo.  It will be quick throws that act as a running game and then when the DB's come up, they'll start double moves.. I think the chess game between Leonard/Welp and the Wabash defense will be a very interesting thing to watch.