FB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Adam Sayer]

If Franklin does get a 5 and plays CWR, the HCAC will win their first playoff game in a long while. I don't think CWR is good. They are beating up on nobodies. The W-L of their opponents is 18-43. Does that not stand out to anyone else? Statistically, the best team they have played is Carnegie Mellon who is 4-4 and they needed OT to win. FC will travel to Cleveland and kick the daylights out of that team.

Altor, I have a question. What happens if CWR loses and goes 9-1. Then who will get in?

[fc_alum_84]

If CWR loses FC may get a #4 seed and a home game (assuming they can win out).  I cant see them getting less than a 5 now that the new rankings are out.  A six might send them back to Wabash

[dc_has_been]

Even if CWRU wins out, why would they be slotted ahead of Franklin (if they win out)?  They shouldn't get a higher seed based upon been undefeated. 

[Pat Coleman]

... because?

Check the playoff criteria. In the FAQ.

[dc_has_been]

Can you be a bit more specific on that? I went to the plaoffs FAQ, but couldn't determine the answer that I was looking for.  So basically which # in the FAQ's am I looking at?
SaintsFan- you have a message.

[Pat Coleman]

How are at-large teams determined, something like that. Same criteria are used to rank teams.

[SaintsFAN]

hasbeen,

got it.  thanks.

[altor]

Altor, I have a question. What happens if CWR loses and goes 9-1. Then who will get in?

IMO, CWRU is in trouble in this scenario.  First, they will be stacked up in Pool B.  Four 1-loss teams trying for 3 bids.  If they are left as the odd-man-out, they move to Pool C, which is even more unclear.  A lot depends on how many 1-loss teams are in Pool C on Nov 10.

A CWRU loss moves both Franklin and MSJ up in the seeding.  Franklin becomes a solid #4, MSJ probably a #5 or #6.  Don't worry...they won't play each other in the first round, regardless.  Franklin probably hosts Hope while MSJ goes to Wabash.  If CWRU is in, they are the #7, but have to go to MUC (the IBC champ is probably too far away from Alliance for a 1st round game).  If CWRU is not in, perhaps they will move Waynesburg into the North.  Or, maybe Capital gets a reprieve.

There's a lot that can go down that will mess all this up.  If a couple conference leaders lose their first game in the next couple weeks and end up in Pool C (like last year)...we could have more 1-loss teams sitting at home for week 12.  If some of these 1-loss, 2nd place teams take a 2nd loss, we could get a couple 2-loss teams in the playoffs.  Also, how would the committee stack a 1-loss CWRU against a 2-loss Capital (or the multitude of other 2-loss teams, for that matter)?  I know who I would pick, but I'm not on the committee.

[Mr. Ypsi]

altor, don't forget the MIAA.  I'd say that their AQ (Hope or Olivet) will 'battle' the IBC AQ for 7th and 8th seed.  (Assuming no one gets moved out of the region, of course.)

I'm dubious that there is room for BOTH a 9-1 Case AND a pool C from the HCAC.

[Adam Sayer]

How are at-large teams determined, something like that. Same criteria are used to rank teams.

Wasn't Wheaton an at-large team in 2004 (Carthage was the AQ I believe)? They finished 9-1 while we finished 10-0 and were seeded ahead of us. I don't get why that couldn't happen again.

[Adam Sayer]

Looking at the ways thinsg play out, it seems possible a 2 loss team could get an at large bid. How often does that happen?

[altor]

I didn't forget Hope.  I just have them as a #7 at the moment, moving up to #6 if CWRU loses.  You have to remember Hope is 5-1 at the moment in the eyes of the committee.  Two of their losses are out of region and "don't count."  That puts them head and shoulders above Concordia or whoever comes out of the IBC.

There probably is not room for both a 9-1 Case and a 9-1 MSJ, which is why I said CWRU is in trouble if they don't win out.

Here are the OWP and OOWP numbers from the strength of schedule page.  I've chosen the 10 schools from the regional poll plus the current MIAA and IBC leaders:

School          Record  OWP    OOWP
Wheaton (Ill.)  8-0     0.568  0.595
Wabash          8-0     0.562  0.553
Mount Union     8-0     0.464  0.536
CWRU            6-0     0.387  0.546
Mt. St. Joseph  7-1     0.557  0.511
Franklin        7-1     0.552  0.506
Hope            5-1     0.614  0.508
Capital         6-2     0.613  0.517
Wittenberg      6-2     0.591  0.563
North Central   6-2     0.565  0.545
Ill Wesleyan    6-2     0.536  0.590
Concordia WI    6-3     0.389  0.471

CWRU has the worst OWP in the list.  If they don't get the Pool B bid, they have trouble getting the Pool C bid.  It also supports my assertions that Hope grades out better than Concordia and that my seedings of Franklin and MSJ are justified.

Also, new regional rankings came out today.  Capital did fall to #7, behind Franklin and MSJ.

[M and L]

All of this what ifs and crunching numbers is hurting my head.  There are still two weeks left to play football in which anything can happen.  To early to tell.

[SaintsFAN]

amen, M&L.


I know one thing...the AFC Poll means squat. 

[dc_has_been]

With all of the questioning going on w/ D1 about teams get ranked higher based upon their rep, do you think that happens in DIII playoff selection too?