BB: General New England Discussion

[wildthngvaughn]

There is a chance that 0 teams get at-large bids in New England.  With Messiah winning the MACC conference, Alvernia (33-7) will probably be getting an at-large bid in the Mid-Atlantic along with atleast 1 NJAC team (most likely Rowan).  That pretty much fills up that region unless the selection committee ships a mid-atlantic team to the South like they have with Johns Hopkins.  Now in the New York region, Brockport State is ranked #2.  I would have to assume that they are going to get an at-large bid.  With the addition of the automatic bids for the NEAC a couple years ago and the NECC this year, at-large bids in New England are going to be hard to come by.

[zoneit]

Wow. That makes a lot of sense but is not what many New Englanders will want to hear. 

RIC wins second in a row, maybe they will be the 2011 version of the Beacons!

[gap to gap]

Thanks for that info, wildthngvaughn. 

Endicott with 31 wins, if that ends up being 33 incl. ECAC title they will have a story to tell. If not, those twin 5-4 losses to WNEC will not soon be forgotten by the Gulls.

The problem with at large bids for NESCAC teams is that they generally play fewer games than most other leagues, so their win totals are less. But I agree that this year if Amherst or Tufts wins tourney, the other stands a very good shot at an at large bid unless they completely collapse in the NESCAC tourney. ECSU has the big rep though, plus 30+ wins, so if they are in the discussion, who knows even though Tufts and Amherst both beat ECSU head to head.

That actually works to a NESCAC teams favor as it is not wins but winning percentage.  Tufts has only played 18 in region games but a 16-2 winning percentage is very high.  Amherst has played more in region games but still 24-7 is very good.  Also becasue they look at opponents and opponents winning percentage when you only play each other those numbers are going to be inflated.  Not saying that they aren't good teams but it would be interesting to see what they would do in a schedule like Wheaton, or a LEC schedule where you see good team after good team.  Hell even WNEC who has to play some weaker teams in league goes out and plays 6 or 7 games a week.  I dont know that NESCAC teams could hold up in that situation.

[rob]

If you're going to pick one over the other, Tufts has a better in-region record and SOS.  Is also Nationally ranked and obviously ranked better regionally.(#1)

[KSCfan]

I would like to think that the NCAA would reward the teams that have played a tougher schedule, and more games when it comes to the at-large bids.  I just dont see how it would be fair to give Tufts the at large, or Amherst the at large over another team from the LEC that has played way more games than a NESCAC team.  Lets say Eastern and Tufts dont win thier league tournaments.  Why should Tufts be rewarded over Eastern, when Easterns Strength of Schedule is better, they have played more games, and have a similar record?? 

I guess it boils down to just win, and you dont have to play this game!!

[Ralph Turner]

There is a chance that 0 teams get at-large bids in New England.  With Messiah winning the MACC conference, Alvernia (33-7) will probably be getting an at-large bid in the Mid-Atlantic along with atleast 1 NJAC team (most likely Rowan).  That pretty much fills up that region unless the selection committee ships a mid-atlantic team to the South like they have with Johns Hopkins.  Now in the New York region, Brockport State is ranked #2.  I would have to assume that they are going to get an at-large bid.  With the addition of the automatic bids for the NEAC a couple years ago and the NECC this year, at-large bids in New England are going to be hard to come by.

At-large bids are not limited regionally.  The "bids" that the NEAC and the NECC recently gained came from the mathematical allocated formula for Pool B.  When those schools move from Pool B to Pool A, they actually helped to increase the number of Pool C bids, by an amount less than 1.00.

Pool C bids ultimately are determined by how many bids that the NCAA can afford to fund for the playoffs.  How many go to New England Region schools will be determined by the criteria that are in the Handbook.  See the FAQ on the front page of D3baseball.com.  

I project the New England Region to get 2 of the 15 Pool C bids.

[gap to gap]

KSCfan the problem is based on percentage Tufts and Amherst do play a "tough" schedule because winning percentages are so high.  Pretty ridiculous because if you look at a Keene, Wheaton, WNEC, Eastern those teams all have 2 or 3 real good arms at the top and some great closers.  If they had to play 3 games a week the damage they could do throwing someone like Schult every 3 games.

[rob]

I would like to think that the NCAA would reward the teams that have played a tougher schedule, and more games when it comes to the at-large bids.  I just dont see how it would be fair to give Tufts the at large, or Amherst the at large over another team from the LEC that has played way more games than a NESCAC team.  Lets say Eastern and Tufts dont win thier league tournaments.  Why should Tufts be rewarded over Eastern, when Easterns Strength of Schedule is better, they have played more games, and have a similar record?? 

I guess it boils down to just win, and you dont have to play this game!!

If you're going to compare Tufts and Eastern I go with Eastern.  Although Tufts is ranked higher both Regionally and Nationally they just haven't played enough games to be considered.  Better SOS too but on a much smaller sample.  If they had played another 10 or so games and the stats were the same, then we could make a better comparison.  But they haven't.
Tufts over Amherst but Eastern over Tufts.  Of course assuming there are no AQ's involved.

[zoneit]

I would like to think that the NCAA would reward the teams that have played a tougher schedule, and more games when it comes to the at-large bids.  I just dont see how it would be fair to give Tufts the at large, or Amherst the at large over another team from the LEC that has played way more games than a NESCAC team.  Lets say Eastern and Tufts dont win thier league tournaments.  Why should Tufts be rewarded over Eastern, when Easterns Strength of Schedule is better, they have played more games, and have a similar record?? 

I guess it boils down to just win, and you dont have to play this game!!

If you're going to compare Tufts and Eastern I go with Eastern.  Although Tufts is ranked higher both Regionally and Nationally they just haven't played enough games to be considered.  Better SOS too but on a much smaller sample.  If they had played another 10 or so games and the stats were the same, then we could make a better comparison.  But they haven't.
Tufts over Amherst but Eastern over Tufts.  Of course assuming there are no AQ's involved.

I guess from your perspective the fact that Tufts and Amherst both beat ECSU late in the season is irrelevant. In Amherst`s case, 11-4. Per my earlier comment, I do agree that teams that play more games get the benefit of the doubt but I wish there was a way to check who has gotten at large bids over the last five or so years to see what in fact has happened and test that. Is there any way to access that info?

[gap to gap]

If you look at regional rankings (the only poll that means anything) Amherst and Tufts are both ahead of Eastern.  This is because they have a higher winning percentage and beat them head to head.  That is going to hurt Eastern largely.  If any conference 2 teams it is going to be the NESCAC if tufts does not win.  I just cant see Tufts falling done to the point where Eastern would pass them.

[zoneit]

Well, the field is set and surprise surprise, Eastern makes it despite mailing it in at the end of the year and in the LEC tournament.  MIT also comes out of nowhere to secure a bid, someone smarter than me is going to have to explain that one. Based upon strength of schedule and record, either Bowdoin or Amherst has a better case. Keene State can also make a strong case that they had a better year than MIT.

Looks like some eastern teams also got bumped by the likes of Buena Vista and Case Western, whose strength of schedule rankings are considerably below the contending eastern teams and records are at best comparable.

Would like to hear an explanation from someone on the selection committee as to how these lines were drawn. Pretty arbitrary, it seems to me. How about Eastern is Eastern, and we flipped coins on the others?

[Ralph Turner]

Well, the field is set and surprise surprise, Eastern makes it despite mailing it in at the end of the year and in the LEC tournament.  MIT also comes out of nowhere to secure a bid, someone smarter than me is going to have to explain that one. Based upon strength of schedule and record, either Bowdoin or Amherst has a better case. Keene State can also make a strong case that they had a better year than MIT.

Looks like some eastern teams also got bumped by the likes of Buena Vista and Case Western, whose strength of schedule rankings are considerably below the contending eastern teams and records are at best comparable.

Would like to hear an explanation from someone on the selection committee as to how these lines were drawn. Pretty arbitrary, it seems to me. How about Eastern is Eastern, and we flipped coins on the others?

Zoneit, the SOS discussions always point out that the more teams that you can choose from to build a schedule, the higher you can get your SOS.

The most Favorable regions for the sake of a conference team trying to build a schedule that takes advantqage of SOS and games against Regionally Ranked opponents probably goes this way...

Top Group:  New England, Mid-Atlantic

Next tier:  Mideast, the northeastern part of the South Region (Capital AC, the USA South and ODAC)

Next tier:  Central, Midwest, deep South, New York


Worst place to live to get a good SOS:  West Region, by far!

[zoneit]

Fine, SOS should be important. Bowdoin was number 2 in the country in that regard, Amherst 32. MIT was 35 with a worse record than Amherst and a comparable record to Bowdoin. Buena Vista SOS was 89 and Case Western 83 . They had decent records but with that SOS, one would hope so, and in any event the records were worse than Amherst and not significantly better than Bowdoin. Keene also had a comparable record and a much better SOS than Buena Vista or Case, 43.

Go figure. The committee may want to brush up on their math skills. Under the circumstances, MIT should offer to help for free.

[zoneit]

D3 All-Amenrican teams announced today. Three teams plus honorable mention. By my count, 66 players named.

7 from New England.


Am I the only one that finds this to be unfair? Continued bias against New England ballplayers?

Congrats to WNEC on winning the region and hope they can make some noise this week. Their pitching depth is definitely going to help and the close call in the CCC tourney may have been a blessing in disguise.

[wordsmith]

zoneit,

no I don't think it is biased towards NE. I just think this was/is a down year for talent is the region. No one or two really dominant players or teams as in recent years.

IMHO

Word