BB: Midwest Region

[username]

The surprise seems to be that Hamline was bounced out of the rankings.  Unfortunately for Macalester, they did not take care of business against St. Thomas and went 2-3 since the last rankings.  Bethany Lutheran and St. Thomas certainly did not hurt their cases by both going 5-0 since the last rankings.  I don't think much disagreement can occur among the top three, but how does Hamline go 5-1 since the last rankings and manage to get dropped out?

Below is a table of the rankings.  As I said, not much disagreement with the top three but spots 4-6 seem a little funny.  In the table below the in region wins, losses, win%, NCAA S.O.S. and NCAA S.O.S. are pretty self explanatory, the final column is just the NCAA S.O.S. rankings among the eight teams in the table.

Hamline has two more wins than Bethany Lutheran.  They also have three more wins and one less loss than St. Thomas; this also includes two wins over St. Thomas.  Obviously the S.O.S. shows a decent gap but how can that mean more than head-to-head results.  If S.O.S. is an overarching determining factor perhaps that should place St. Thomas above Bethany Lutheran as it is now, but how can Hamline be placed below St. Thomas considering the head-to-head matchup and overall record, including many common opponents?  I don't know though, I guess that's why I'm not on the NCAA committee that makes the decisions.

Congratulations to Macalester on winning the conference co-championship that must feel great for those players and coaches to finally come through.

I rode my bike over to the St. Olaf/St. Thomas game and saw some scouts watching Hughes; looks like he could go high in the draft.  It will be interesting to see what happens with that.  I wonder if Schmiesing and Hughes were heavily recruited out of high school, Coach McDonald and his staff do a good job of really developing players.

	In Region	In Region	In Region	NCAA	NCAA	Comparative
Team	Wins	Losses	Win%	S.O.S.	S.O.S. Rank	S.O.S. Rank
UW-Stevens Point	29	6	0.829	0.546	68	4
UW-Whitewater	28	9	0.757	0.564	31	2
St. Scholastica	25	3	0.893	0.537	85	5
St. Thomas	21	9	0.700	0.583	11	1
Bethany Lutheran	22	8	0.733	0.553	53	3
Concordia (Ill.)	28	7	0.800	0.494	260	8
Hamline	24	8	0.750	0.514	189	7
Macalester	21	9	0.700	0.534	95	6

[BigPoppa]

Concordia's #260 SoS really puts their backs against the wall. I am not sure if they are in a must win it to get in situation or not, but it appears that the committee is telling them that or they'd be a bit higher.

[OshDude]

Concordia's #260 SoS really puts their backs against the wall. I am not sure if they are in a must win it to get in situation or not, but it appears that the committee is telling them that or they'd be a bit higher.

A bit of trivia: Among the 15 MW teams over .500, CUC has a better SOS than just one team – Presentation. CUC is also 2-5 vs. RR teams.

Two weeks in a row now that I disagree with the committee. There are a few candidates with better resumes than CUC.

[BaseballFan]

Any guesses on the regional seeds, I know its tough when a team may get shipped in or out.

1. Stevens Point
2. CSS 3-0 in conf. tourney
3. UWW 1-2 in conf tourney, my gut is saying #2 seed based on committees history of lack of respect for CSS's schedule, but i cant give it to them on the basis of conf. tourney
4. Hamline or 5
5. Aurora or 4
6. St. Thomas or a team being shipped in? Im going St. Thomas based on SOS and their history.

Again there are more qualified people than me but its just fun to discuss and think about

[TheSportsFan]

1. Stevens Point
2. St. Scholastica
3. Whitewater
4. Carthage
5. Hamline
6. Ripon

[GBMAN]

Projections for the midwest region from D3 Baseball.

Midwest Regional in Whitewater, Wis.            
1. UW-Stevens Point (32-8)
2. St. Scholastica (35-5)  
3. UW-Whitewater (32-11) Pool C
4. Hamline (28-13)  
5. St. Thomas (27-16) Pool C      
6. Ripon (20-18)

** Carthage shipped to the Central Region..

[cubs]

Projections for the midwest region from D3 Baseball.

Midwest Regional in Whitewater, Wis.            
1. UW-Stevens Point (32-8)
2. St. Scholastica (35-5)  
3. UW-Whitewater (32-11) Pool C
4. Hamline (28-13)  
5. St. Thomas (27-16) Pool C      
6. Ripon (20-18)

** Carthage shipped to the Central Region..

Carthage is a Central Region Team (as is the rest of the CCIW) so they are "staying home."  Ripon is actually getting shipped into the Midwest Region, while Aurora is getting shipped out.

[biggio34]

I dont think that CSS will get a #2 seed even though all the projections I have seen say otherwise.  Although they may deserve it, I can't see them jumping Whitewater. 

1.  Point
2.  WW
3.  CSS
4.  Ham
5.  STU
6.  Aurora

I see no reason to ship any teams in or out unless the committee determines that St. Thomas isn't good enough for a C.  I think their SOS gets them in though.

[TheSportsFan]

I debated the 2 seed as well.......I decided to go with CSS for the 2 spot because Whitewater ended up getting 3rd in their tournament......plus CSS is on a nice 8 game win streak and is 9-3 vs. Regionally ranked teams (split with Whitewater at Whitewater).  Whitewater was 8-6 (and 3-3 vs. Oshkosh)

[biggio34]

Thoughts on pitching match ups for the first round?

Point, Whitewater and CSS should have everyone available on a decent amount of rest.  Hameline and UST's top arms will be on short rest.  I wonder if St. Thomas will be able to throw Edwards after he pitched 9 on Friday and was in relief for a few innings (and the loss) on Sunday.  Can anyone on Aurora's staff keep the game close against Point?  Will any of the teams throw off early in hopes of saving their best arms for later in the tourney?

[Strikeout]

This regional is going to be an awesome few days of baseball!  Point, WW, CSS, Hamline, UST and Aurora.  Obviously the selections committee has considered CSS's SoS in putting WW above them, however, CSS did amazing an amazing job mixing up the schedule adding a few more tough teams this year and I'm sure their players appreciated that and should also be a little more prepared than in the past.  I see them going very deep in this regional.  Point definitely throws off in game 1 saving their top arms and possibly WW as well if Edwards for UST can't go.  What do Hamline and Aurora have for arms?  If Hamline's top arms aren't ready to go, does CSS throw Lewis or start one of the younger guys?  That would be a huge boost for them if they can get by Hamline saving their top arms for Point, WW and UST. 

Game 1 predictions:
Point will down Aurora handedly while throwing off.  In excellent shape for game 2.
WW will throw one of their 3-4 guys and regardless if Edwards is ready to go, will beat UST in a good game.  UST always battles.
CSS takes out Hamline in a nail biter.  Saving Lewis for game 2.    '

Where can I find the tourny bracket?  What would be the 2nd round matchups?

[Just Bill]

Winner of Game 1 plays loser of Game 3.
Winner of Game 2 plays winner of Game 3.
Loser of Game 1 plays loser of Game 2.

After that it depends on how many teams are remaining.

[biggio34]

Winner of Game 1 plays loser of Game 3.
Winner of Game 2 plays winner of Game 3.
Loser of Game 1 plays loser of Game 2.

After that it depends on how many teams are remaining.

Here is the tournament page with the bracket and scenarios...

http://uwwsports.com/sports/2011/5/9/BSB_0509114021.aspx?id=684

[Dagger]

This regional is going to be an awesome few days of baseball!  Point, WW, CSS, Hamline, UST and Aurora.  Obviously the selections committee has considered CSS's SoS in putting WW above them, however, CSS did amazing an amazing job mixing up the schedule adding a few more tough teams this year and I'm sure their players appreciated that and should also be a little more prepared than in the past.  I see them going very deep in this regional.  Point definitely throws off in game 1 saving their top arms and possibly WW as well if Edwards for UST can't go.  What do Hamline and Aurora have for arms?  If Hamline's top arms aren't ready to go, does CSS throw Lewis or start one of the younger guys?  That would be a huge boost for them if they can get by Hamline saving their top arms for Point, WW and UST. 

Game 1 predictions:
Point will down Aurora handedly while throwing off.  In excellent shape for game 2.
WW will throw one of their 3-4 guys and regardless if Edwards is ready to go, will beat UST in a good game.  UST always battles.
CSS takes out Hamline in a nail biter.  Saving Lewis for game 2.    '

Where can I find the tourny bracket?  What would be the 2nd round matchups?

I don't see point throwing off in the first game.  They may go with Delorit, if that constitutes throwing off, but I would be very surprised to see them not use one of their top guns.  Bloom has never been one to throw off in hopes of saving the ace for later, because if you don't win the first game then are you really in a better situation by having your ace in an elimination game versus the 2 pitcher in a winners bracket game?  Not to mention that IF point wins they would play the loser of the other game, making it even more important to win that first game.  You wouldn't need your better pitchers for the second game (theoretically), and then their 3rd guy, koback, has to match up pretty well with any other #3.  If anything I could possibly see starting either williams/delorit game one and then throwing koback game two (if they win) agains the loser of the other game, leaving whoever didn't throw between williams and delorit for the third game that would pit two 2-0 teams against one another.  If they lose the first game then the other part of williams/delorit would take game two right away, leaving koback for a possible game three.  Aces of staffs dont do you any good if you don't let them play...now's not the time to be throwing off in my opinion!

[Strikeout]

Thanks Biggio,

dagger you make a very good point.  I hadn't considered that.  It may not be worth the risk to throw off in game 1 but if they did, and won, there is very little chance another other team in this regional can match up with them in round 3.

1)  I see Point's staff as being in this order: Williams, Delorit, Koback.  Is this accurate, I have not seen any of them?  So they will throw Koback at best, beating Aurora and their best arm and facing the loser of CSS/Hamline.  I see point as having a golden road to the championship round if CSS can beat Hamline's best arm because they can throw off their first 2 games saving 2 of the best pitchers in the region for whoever makes it to them.

2)  WW throws their #2(Donovan?) or #3. at UST's #1 Edwards.  WW's offense is going to be too much for the Tommies and they lose not only the game but their top arm for the rest of the tourny. 

3)  CSS throws their #2/#3 at Hamline's ace saving Lewis for WW or Point.  I have to give the advantage to WW having already seen Lewis and like someone pointed out earlier in this thread, CSS hasn't seen WW's top arms yet.  However, Lewis is the real deal and if pitches like he did in the conference tourny I see CSS defeating WW and heading into the 3rd round with a deep rotation of younger arms and a pesky offense to back them up. 

Either way the matches stack up I see point going 2-0 with at least 1 of their top 2 arms left, if not both for the third round.  Huge advantage.
WW has a good chance as well, as long as they take care of business against UST.  They would have the best chance against Point in the third round having faced them an abundance of times this year.
CSS needs to focus on Hamline before thinking about WW/UST in the 2nd round.  If CSS gets by Hamline they will have a great chance to go deep and face Point.  Expect a very entertaining game with Lewis vs. Tincher/Donovan in the 2nd round if they win.
UST simply just needs to win game 1.  This team had an extremely tough schedule this year.  Playing in close games is their forte.  Like CSS, not the most talent in the region, but always contenders and an awesome defense.
Aurora & Hamline have very difficult roads.  Basically thrown into a regional with 3 top 10 teams and another who had one of the hardest schedules in D3 baseball. 

This tournament is going to be one of the best in the country with all roads leading to Point in the final round.