BB: Midwest Region

[ShineTime]

Does anyone else think UWSP Center Fielder Brandon Scheidler is one of the most underrated players in D3? 

[BaseballFan]

Well I dont know every D3 player and think there are probably some other players that dont get talked about when they should. Underrated in entire D3 probably not, Underrated for midwest region maybe, Underrated on USP probably.

The fact of the matter his stats dont have much too them except for a fairly good average.

[BaseballFan]

New National Rankings out UWW at UWO in top ten at 8 and 10. St. Thomas at 13 and CSS jumps to 21, Point drops to 23.
Interesting Ripon barely dropped for their poor weekend.

Still Midwest very strong with 5 teams in top 23 and 6 in top 26

[BaseballFan]

Here's my projection. Hope no horse dies this time as a result of my educated guesses.

Team, in-region record through 5/6, OWP and records vs. (at least) one-time regionally ranked teams (plus St. Olaf) – nonregion ranked teams
1. Whitewater, 30-6, .559 (Oshkosh 2-2, Point 3-1, St. Olaf 1-1)
2. St. Thomas, 21-5, .586 (Oshkosh 1-1, Stevens Point 1-1, St. Olaf 2-0, Trinity-Conn. 0-1, Amherst 1-0)
3. Oshkosh, 28-7, .587 (Whitewater 2-2, Stevens Point 3-1, St. Thomas 1-1)
4. St. Olaf, 19-6, .565 (Whitewater 1-1, St. Thomas 0-2, Wartburg 1-1)
5. St. Scholastica, 21-3, .557 (Oshkosh 1-1, St. Thomas 1-1, Elizabethtown 1-0, Alvernia 1-1)

In no particular order:
Stevens Point, 22-10, .616 (St. Thomas 1-1, Oshkosh 1-3, Ripon 1-1, Whitewater 1-3, Wooster 0-2)
St. Norbert, 21-9, .549 (Augustana 0-1, Carthage 0-2, Stevens Point 0-2, Ripon 3-1, Mt. St. Joe 1-0)

There are a few regular-season DH's and a huge game between Bethel and St. Olaf to be played on Wednesday. The DH's will have very little effect on these OWPs, but if Olaf were to lose tomorrow, Point could be back in at No. 5.

Hard to deny Point's OWP, though. Olaf and Point could be closer than we (just I?) think.

Nice job Oshdude, Im guessing you are predicting that Ripon is not even close anymore after losing 3 of 4 to Norbert.

Like I have stated before I would probably put Scholastica in front of Olaf, a much better record overall and something I think may be pretty key is CSS split with Thomas, Olaf got swept. Its going to help CSS when they will most likely go 3-0 in their tourney. Olaf has a big game tomorrow (is that correct?) then has to play their tourney and dont see them making it through 4 games without a loss this will help CSS to get a better seed and potentially let STP sneek in.

Why is Olaf even playing that game against Bethel? They already know they are the 2 seed and dont get a lot of reward if they win. But can hurt a lot if they lose.  Seems like Olaf could justify not playing a game 2 days before the tourney

[OshDude]

Here's my updated projection with new info. Hope no horse dies this time as a result of my educated guesses.

Team, in-region record through 5/6, OWP, OOWP* and records vs. (at least) one-time regionally ranked teams (plus St. Olaf) – nonregion ranked teams
1. Whitewater, 30-6, .559, .553 (Oshkosh 2-2, Point 3-1, St. Olaf 1-1)
2. St. Thomas, 21-5, .586, .522 (Oshkosh 1-1, Stevens Point 1-1, St. Olaf 2-0, Trinity-Conn. 0-1, Amherst 1-0)
3. Oshkosh, 28-7, .587, .557 (Whitewater 2-2, Stevens Point 3-1, St. Thomas 1-1)
4. St. Olaf, 19-6, .565, .510 (Whitewater 1-1, St. Thomas 0-2, Wartburg 1-1)
5. St. Scholastica, 21-3, .557, .481 (Oshkosh 1-1, St. Thomas 1-1, Elizabethtown 1-0, Alvernia 1-1)

In no particular order:
Stevens Point, 22-10, .616, .555 (St. Thomas 1-1, Oshkosh 1-3, Ripon 1-1, Whitewater 1-3, Wooster 0-2)
St. Norbert, 21-9, .549, .514 (Augustana 0-1, Carthage 0-2, Stevens Point 0-2, Ripon 3-1, Mt. St. Joe 1-0)

There are a few regular-season DH's and a huge game between Bethel and St. Olaf to be played on Wednesday. The DH's will have very little affect on these OWPs and OOWPs, but if Olaf were to lose tomorrow, Point could be back in at No. 5.

Hard to deny Point's OWP and OOWP, though. Olaf and Point could be closer than we (just I?) think.

*If you only knew how long that took me ... with about 1,000,000 calculations, give me a +/- .005-ish margin of error.

[BaseballFan]

Here's my updated projection with new info. Hope no horse dies this time as a result of my educated guesses.

Team, in-region record through 5/6, OWP, OOWP* and records vs. (at least) one-time regionally ranked teams (plus St. Olaf) – nonregion ranked teams
1. Whitewater, 30-6, .559, .553 (Oshkosh 2-2, Point 3-1, St. Olaf 1-1)
2. St. Thomas, 21-5, .586, .522 (Oshkosh 1-1, Stevens Point 1-1, St. Olaf 2-0, Trinity-Conn. 0-1, Amherst 1-0)
3. Oshkosh, 28-7, .587, .557 (Whitewater 2-2, Stevens Point 3-1, St. Thomas 1-1)
4. St. Olaf, 19-6, .565, .510 (Whitewater 1-1, St. Thomas 0-2, Wartburg 1-1)
5. St. Scholastica, 21-3, .557, .481 (Oshkosh 1-1, St. Thomas 1-1, Elizabethtown 1-0, Alvernia 1-1 Juniata 2-0)

In no particular order:
Stevens Point, 22-10, .616, .555 (St. Thomas 1-1, Oshkosh 1-3, Ripon 1-1, Whitewater 1-3, Wooster 0-2)
St. Norbert, 21-9, .549, .514 (Augustana 0-1, Carthage 0-2, Stevens Point 0-2, Ripon 3-1, Mt. St. Joe 1-0)

There are a few regular-season DH's and a huge game between Bethel and St. Olaf to be played on Wednesday. The DH's will have very little affect on these OWPs and OOWPs, but if Olaf were to lose tomorrow, Point could be back in at No. 5.

Hard to deny Point's OWP and OOWP, though. Olaf and Point could be closer than we (just I?) think.

*If you only knew how long that took me ... with about 1,000,000 calculations, give me a +/- .005-ish margin of error.

Very nice work! Must have some time on your hands

[Ralph Turner]

Here's my projection. Hope no horse dies this time as a result of my educated guesses.

Team, in-region record through 5/6, OWP and records vs. (at least) one-time regionally ranked teams (plus St. Olaf) – nonregion ranked teams
1. Whitewater, 30-6, .559 (Oshkosh 2-2, Point 3-1, St. Olaf 1-1)
2. St. Thomas, 21-5, .586 (Oshkosh 1-1, Stevens Point 1-1, St. Olaf 2-0, Trinity-Conn. 0-1, Amherst 1-0)
3. Oshkosh, 28-7, .587 (Whitewater 2-2, Stevens Point 3-1, St. Thomas 1-1)
4. St. Olaf, 19-6, .565 (Whitewater 1-1, St. Thomas 0-2, Wartburg 1-1)
5. St. Scholastica, 21-3, .557 (Oshkosh 1-1, St. Thomas 1-1, Elizabethtown 1-0, Alvernia 1-1)

In no particular order:
Stevens Point, 22-10, .616 (St. Thomas 1-1, Oshkosh 1-3, Ripon 1-1, Whitewater 1-3, Wooster 0-2)
St. Norbert, 21-9, .549 (Augustana 0-1, Carthage 0-2, Stevens Point 0-2, Ripon 3-1, Mt. St. Joe 1-0)

There are a few regular-season DH's and a huge game between Bethel and St. Olaf to be played on Wednesday. The DH's will have very little effect on these OWPs, but if Olaf were to lose tomorrow, Point could be back in at No. 5.

Hard to deny Point's OWP, though. Olaf and Point could be closer than we (just I?) think.

Great job, dude!  +1 and thanks!   

Please remember, fans.  The OWP does not include the games against that opponent. 

[BaseballFan]

MIAC
1 UST vs 4 Gustavus Lonnie Robinson vs Dave Wold
2 Olaf vs 3 Hamline Todd Mathison vs Josh Roiger

WIAC
1 UWW vs 4 LaCrosse Mike Jacobson/Aaron Dott vs Ross Benitz
2 Oshkosh vs 3 Point Demmin vs Who wants the ball have to have the win Mike Thrun

UMAC
1 CSS vs To be determined
2 Bethany Lutheran vs To be determined
CSS will go 3-0 throw Peter Burg, Adian Kummet, Steve Gerten, others

MWC
2N Ripon vs 1S Knox Mike Lloyd/Matt Dwyer vs Jordan Ball
1N Norbert vs 2S Monmouth Jake Gasser vs Michael Reed

So I included probable game 1 starters IMO. Its hard to actually pick because some teams might throw off in their 1st game. So in that situation I tried to guess a number 3-4 starter. For example, what does UWW do? Do they throw Dominick or Dott in the first game to assure a win or do they take a chance with a 3 or 4 and then have your 2 guys for the last 2 games. So obviously my starters wont be correct on some cases.

Projected winner IMO

WIAC
UWW-have the benefit of not having to throw 1 or 2 in the first game unlike UWO and STP

MIAC
St. Thomas--Olaf needs to be Roiger or they could be sitting at home during the regional. Thomas wins it though

UMAC
CSS--will outscore their opponents 39-4

MWC
St. Norbert--will finally win it

Feel free to throw out your projections gives us something to discuss prior to these tourneys

[tommiepitcher]

Actually, due to tiebreakers Hamline is the 3 seed and Gustavus is the 4 - so I predict that St. Thomas will win the tournament since they don't have to face Roiger.

UST 6 - Gustavus 2
Hamline 2 - Olaf 1

UST 8 - Hamline 5
Olaf 8 - Gustavus 3 (Gustavus Eliminated)

Olaf 9 - Hamline 4 (Hamline Eliminated)

UST 13 - Olaf 3

let's see how wrong I can be...

[BaseballFan]

Actually, due to tiebreakers Hamline is the 3 seed and Gustavus is the 4 - so I predict that St. Thomas will win the tournament since they don't have to face Roiger.

UST 6 - Gustavus 2
Hamline 2 - Olaf 1

UST 8 - Hamline 5
Olaf 8 - Gustavus 3 (Gustavus Eliminated)

Olaf 9 - Hamline 4 (Hamline Eliminated)

UST 13 - Olaf 3

let's see how wrong I can be...

Wow I screwed that one up

[OshDude]

I like St. Thomas, Oshkosh and Ripon in the tourneys. Oh, and CSS in its thing-a-ma-jig, too. Hard for me to call that a tournament.

I'll go with Pool C's Olaf and Whitewater, and Pool B CSS, to round out the Oshkosh field.

[OshDude]

Pat, Ralph, Jim, other smartypants folks,
OOWP is the average of all winning percentages and not the quotient of all the raw numbers, correct? That's how I understood the Handbook's "averaging the percentages."

Ex: Whitewater had 12 in-region opponents. I figured each opponent's OWP, added all 12 OWPs, and then divided that number by 12.
I didn't take Oshkosh's 199-140 opponent record, add Point's 175-109, etc., and then find the quotient.

[ShineTime]

I know St. Olaf has an impressive record but let's be realistic here.  Point would 10 run rule them as would Oshkosh and Whitewater.  Point probably had the toughest schedule in D3.

[supermiac]

I know St. Olaf has an impressive record but let's be realistic here.  Point would 10 run rule them as would Oshkosh and Whitewater.  Point probably had the toughest schedule in D3.

That's a ridiculous claim. St. Olaf already beat Whitewater (the WIAC champs) 5-0 and lost a close one to them 8-7. There's always been a superiority complex associated with WIAC teams when comparing themselves to MIAC in baseball. Many times it's been justified, as we have seen over the past several years with the success of Point, Oshkosh and WW. However, this time it isn't. St. Olaf is a legitimate team with legitimate pitching and more athleticism than any of the top WIAC teams. Also, it doesn't matter who has the toughest schedule, Olaf has proven it can play with the big teams over the past couple years, and this year as well. If I were a Stevens Point fan, I would worry more about this weekend's conf. tourney and MAKING the playoffs before talking about the other regional teams. I think that's being more realistic.

[BaseballFan]

I know St. Olaf has an impressive record but let's be realistic here.  Point would 10 run rule them as would Oshkosh and Whitewater.  Point probably had the toughest schedule in D3.

Notre Dame football has the toughest schedule too but they dont play for a national championship...yes they have a tough schedule but they need to win more of their games. Stevens Point lost 14 games and Olaf is better than half of those teams are their schedule so to say stevens point would ten run them is just ridiculous