MBB: Landmark Conference

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I would put three teams from the CAC ahead of Scranton (meaning two Pool Cs)... and two teams from the MACC (meaning one Pool C)... that's assuming that Scranton is looking for a Pool C... if they get the AQ, the next team up is going to be even further down. Also, Dickinson I think will have a better SOS than Scranton, so if they don't win the AQ Scranton could find themselves behind Dickinson.

[ronk]

Catholic    6-2   12-7
Scranton   6-2   16-3
Susque    4-4   12-7
Drew        4-4   10-9
MMA          4-5   9-10
Moravian   4-5   9-10
Juniata     3-5   12-7
Goucher    2-6   7-12


My projected final standings:

Catholic           9-5
Scranton         9-5
Drew               8-6
Susque           7-7
MMA               7-7
Juniata           6-8
Goucher         5-9
Moravian        5-9

[saratoga]

From the Why You Can't Actually Take This Poll Seriously department.....
Augustana is currently ranked at # 23.
Things to ponder.....
*They already have 5 losses.
*They have lost 3 games in a row.
*Two of those games were at home.
*One of those teams weighs in at 10-10.
I'm sure the SOS will be right up there with Duke & North Carolina and there will be another dozen reasons why their 5 losses are actually good for them while someone else's 3 losses are absolutely horrible etc. etc. etc. so we do need to account for that.
Bottom line, my issue has nothing to do with Scranton getting zero additional votes by picking up 2 road wins this past week.
Personally, I'm still not completely sold on them.
However, there is absolutely no way you can convince me the body of work Augustana has put together up to this point & with 3 losses in a row has them deserving of anything other than perhaps 6 votes in the "other" category.
Absolutely laughable, yet somehow so predictable.

[NEPAFAN]

Cue the rationale and explanations in 3...2.....

[Pat Coleman]

No, I can't argue with you. I wouldn't have ranked Augustana this week. They just didn't fall far enough, because of all the other losses. This week they'll almost surely lose at IWU and finish falling all the way out.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I put Augustana 25 and you can read all about it in my blog... especially if you read my thoughts over the last few weeks. I nearly punted them all-together and probably should have...but didn't: www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2014/02/03/daves-top-25-ballot-week-9-2/

However, Augustana coming out of my poll wouldn't have freed up a spot for Scranton. I am not convinced this conference is that good this year. I took Dickinson out because I am not convinced they are that good anymore in a sub-par Centennial.

From the data I have looked at... Scranton has an SOS barely above .500 with just one win over any significant team (only because the RMC win now looks good... at the time it was ho-hum). They got trounced by Cabrini, lost at home to Merchant Marine, lost at home to Juniata who they did beat on the road, but the Eagles are not nearly the same team that beat the Royals three weeks prior.

I know this conference well... and I know this region well... and I am not voting for Scranton.

[saratoga]

Dave:
Read my post once more..."My issue has nothing to do with Scranton getting zero additional votes"...
As I said, I've got my own questions regarding the Royal's depth, lack of point guard & overall one dimensional approach game in & game out.
In fact, I'm not even sure they win at MMA on Wednesday as MMA is playing their best basketball of the season right now.
My point was & has been about the Poll.
It simply loses credibility when you have teams like I pointed out remaining in while others, regardless of your bias, never even get 1 additional vote & they continue to win.
Whether it's Scranton, Tufts or Cal Lutheran, the standard must be the same or you risk being taken seriously.
With enough voters keeping Augustana in after what they've recently accomplished, that credibility may be at an all time low.

[Pat Coleman]

With enough voters keeping Augustana in after what they've recently accomplished, that credibility may be at an all time low.

Not even the most questionable ranking for someone with a Mid-Atlantic mind-set. I thought St. Mary's staying in the poll in recent weeks was much, much worse than this. Augustana at least has one win against a team currently in the top five.

[CCHoopster]

There is debate with top 25 polls in D1,2,3 for both hoops and football. Anytime there is subjectivity in voting there is always room for disagreement and potential for error. Scranton, IMO, should certainly have more than 6 votes and St. Mary's/Augsburg I think are incorrect to be in there or to have been. But these polls really don't mean anything in the big picture. AQ's and Regional Rankings are gold.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

saratoga - my problem is you claim to understand why Scranton doesn't get more votes and raise the same problems I raise as to why they aren't getting those votes... but then turn around and use them as an example as to why others are so highly ranked. If you have a problem with the poll, raise those points, but don't turn around and use Scranton as an example when you don't even disagree with their position. Choose someone else that is a better example.

I understand your point, but it gets muddy when you bring Scranton into the equation, even if it is a passing comment.

[saratoga]

My point is this, if the Top 25 is to be considered somewhat valid & respectable, you cannot have 1 standard that allows for Team A to lose 3 in a row & remain ranked and another for Team B that wins 2 on the road & 6 in a row & gains nothing in this very same poll.
You rank them every week, where they are ranked this week is to be a snapshot of where they were last week, that is your sample size.
If Team A is floundering, no matter the reason, it must be acknowledged.
If Team B is getting it done, regardless of how you feel about them, that should be noted.
I could care less if Scranton is ranked in this poll.
However, don't tell me something isn't wrong when a team wins 2 road games & does not even get 1 additional vote.
These issues outlined are exactly why the only poll that matters is the Regional Ranking.
Next topic.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

You can't ignore the season, either... you can't ignore what they did before the slide. I don't know many voters who vote only a week by week basis... or the poll would be incredibly turbulent.

Should a team on a three-game slide still be in the poll? I understand your point why they aren't and I have even triple-guessed my own decision to keep them #25 on my poll. However, I also took into account they beat IWU and Carthage this season (just a few weeks ago)... interestingly enough that is who they play this week.

As for a team winning two road games: who did they play and who else of the 50 teams being considered play? It isn't a vacuum. Scranton played a below .500 team in Moravian on the road and a significantly struggling Juniata squad on the road. I have seen both of those teams in recent weeks and a win over them doesn't impress me right now. That all being said, I had 40 teams I was looking at in my Top 25 and they all had results this past week on the road and at home... they all had arguments for or against being in the Top 25... this isn't a vacuum. Just because one team won two games on the road doesn't automatically qualify for getting more votes if other voters don't agree.

Just to point out... Augustana lost 272 points in one week. That is a SIGNIFICANT drop. The keys are this: the top of the Top 25 is rather stable in terms of who are getting votes from the voters... but the bottom half is anything but. There are 45 teams getting votes which indicates a lot of voters are not on the same page as to who the bottom, let's say, ten teams in the country are. That ends up having teams that maybe don't "deserve" to be in the Top 25 by those like yourself getting enough votes to be in the poll. If there were only 30 teams receiving votes, than your argument would certainly reveal something more glaring... but with 45 teams getting votes it actually shows a lot of questions about a lot of teams.

I would suggest you dive into your own Top 25... look at all of the teams in the country you think deserve to be in the Top 25 (not just 25 teams, you may have 40 or so), and then put your ballot together and see how you do. I promise you a few things: it is far harder than it seems, you will be dissecting far more information and data than you dreamed, you will be pulling your hair out trying to figure out the bottom half of your ballot.

And guess what... in reality no polls matter. Only the BCS (thank god that is gone) used the polls in its computer-generated system.

[Pat Coleman]

Scranton was on two ballots last week (a 21st and a 25th) and on one ballot this week (a 20th). The second voter leapfrogged Centre onto their ballot ahead of Scranton, and Centre has won nine in a row, including the last five on the road. 

When you have so few votes, you're just plain going to fluctuate. Scranton didn't lose that point as much as Centre took it from them by performing even better. And that's why I always caution people not to look at the poll in a vacuum -- every other team's position can affect your vote total or ranking as well.

[CCHoopster]

This could be a Mid Atlantic Region forum question but it goes along with your conversations: Messiah won 2 home games vs Etown and Albright last week and went from 22 to 17. Is that because of their total body of work, SOS, and other criteria or the fact they went 2-0 and teams in front of them (I think 14, 16, 18, 19) all lost.

Not jointing the conversation, just asking a question to understand voting better.

Thanks.

[Pat Coleman]

This could be a Mid Atlantic Region forum question but it goes along with your conversations: Messiah won 2 home games vs Etown and Albright last week and went from 22 to 17. Is that because of their total body of work, SOS, and other criteria or the fact they went 2-0 and teams in front of them (I think 14, 16, 18, 19) all lost.

This is going to sound like a non-answer but it's probably a mix of both. Think of a team rising five spots as gaining 125 points: five points times each of the 25 voters. Messiah gained 94 points, so that's a pretty good leap.

That's part one. Part two is to look at who they passed and figure out why. Messiah passed DePauw, Wittenberg and Albertus Magnus, who each lost to unranked teams. And Messiah passed Bowdoin, which lost to Amherst. Albertus had a win against a ranked team during the week, which complicates their resume, but the results lent themselves to both Albertus and SUNY-Purchase falling. Messiah also passed Augustana, which has been discussed already.