WBB: Landmark Conference

[Rofrog]

Just would like to say if losing to a 9-7 team is not good then losing to a 2-18 is Really not good!By the way Man the freshman are playing great for Coach Dipillo

[Rofrog]

I will still stand by my statement about Bethel they got beat by a 2-18 team and this is why masseys is garbage!Yes it proved my point again!I would never use massey as a standard in any game!

[Rofrog]

Okay here is a question for all,after games do they look at how the referees do or is there someone in the stands that monitor the game?I mean they missed alot of walks and a cheap shot by Stafford when she raised her arms to put a pick on Warhiftig and was never called that should have been a flagrant foul on 6 it is right around 1.37on video it was just one of many dirty plays that Catholic had in the playbook that under cut going after the loose ball in the 1st half when she undercut Sofia was also a dirty play.But Sophia had a T on her guess what, I would have said something if they cut my legs out also!

[Roundball999]

I will still stand by my statement about Bethel they got beat by a 2-18 team and this is why masseys is garbage!Yes it proved my point again!I would never use massey as a standard in any game!

Question: how many times is Massey right vs. wrong?  How does it compare to any other system of prognostication?  It was "wrong" for every game that Scranton lost this year - but I suspect every other prediction was wrong about those games too.

BTW, Massey was technically "right" about the Bethel/St. Mary's game.  It did not say Bethel had 100% probability to win, it gave St. Mary's a slim chance of winning.  This is how statistics work.

[saratoga]

Roundball:

I wish Vegas worked like your beloved Massey...

I'm putting all my money on the 49'ers but I think Kansas City has a slim chance of winning. That would get me which of the following?

A. Nothing
B. Zilch
C. Nada
D. A congratulatory letter stating "thanks for trying, come back any time".
E. All of the above.

By the way, I watched the second half of the game several times & Ro you are absolutely correct, the player in question clearly lifted her arms from the set position at her waist right up into the face of the Lady Royal.

Additionally, in the first half there were two low bridges on Sophia, the second of which led to what could have been a very serious fall.
She must have said something not very complimentary of Catholic's boxing out technique & got hit with a T.

Sophia again played her tail off underneath doing all the important things that contribute as did the young post players.

Great to see Mason kick it in...clearly more her game to drive to the basket, collect fouls, short jumpers & then expand to 3 point shots.

Great win & now just take care of business one game at a time & the top seed will be theirs.

[Roundball999]

Do you really think Vegas does NOT use statistical tools similar to Massey?  Big time sports betting odds are set by statistical models.  You know, statistical models like Massey.  People seem to misunderstand the difference between probabilities and prediction.

I like Massey as one data point to consider because it eliminates fan bias.  But it's just a data point.  It can't look into the future and it can't evaluate things like how individual players match up, which we all know can be a major factor in outcomes.

There's still the question of how many times Massey is "right" vs "wrong".  I suppose one can look at an outcome like Bethel/St. Mary's (which many knowledgeable non-Massey folks are calling the biggest upset of the year) and take it as proof that Massey is "wrong".  My view would be to also consider the vast majority of times it is "right" as "exceptio probat regulam in casibus non exceptis" i.e. the exception proves the rule.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Okay here is a question for all,after games do they look at how the referees do or is there someone in the stands that monitor the game?I mean they missed alot of walks and a cheap shot by Stafford when she raised her arms to put a pick on Warhiftig and was never called that should have been a flagrant foul on 6 it is right around 1.37on video it was just one of many dirty plays that Catholic had in the playbook that under cut going after the loose ball in the 1st half when she undercut Sofia was also a dirty play.But Sophia had a T on her guess what, I would have said something if they cut my legs out also!

Assigners as well as the NCAAs head of officiating have access to video of all games and officials are rated on how they do in games.  I'm not sure, at the d3 level, if every referee is rated for every game, but there is a pretty robust process for evaluation over time.

[saratoga]

Of course Vegas uses statistical models.

My reference was to your statement that Massey was 'technically right".

Statistics matter, just understand at the D3 level, there are a ton of variables & a greater degree of inconsistency.

Bottom line, if you want to have a winning team, get yourself high field goal % shots, get to the foul line, get offensive rebounds & don't turn the ball over.

[Pat Coleman]

I will still stand by my statement about Bethel they got beat by a 2-18 team and this is why masseys is garbage!Yes it proved my point again!I would never use massey as a standard in any game!

Question: how many times is Massey right vs. wrong?  How does it compare to any other system of prognostication?  It was "wrong" for every game that Scranton lost this year - but I suspect every other prediction was wrong about those games too.

BTW, Massey was technically "right" about the Bethel/St. Mary's game.  It did not say Bethel had 100% probability to win, it gave St. Mary's a slim chance of winning.  This is how statistics work.

This. +1

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I will still stand by my statement about Bethel they got beat by a 2-18 team and this is why masseys is garbage!Yes it proved my point again!I would never use massey as a standard in any game!

Question: how many times is Massey right vs. wrong?  How does it compare to any other system of prognostication?  It was "wrong" for every game that Scranton lost this year - but I suspect every other prediction was wrong about those games too.

BTW, Massey was technically "right" about the Bethel/St. Mary's game.  It did not say Bethel had 100% probability to win, it gave St. Mary's a slim chance of winning.  This is how statistics work.

OMG this. Yes.

[Baldini]

New women's poll is out,

1.) Scranton (starters)
2.) Scranton (bench players)
3-4-5) The top 3 teams in the Scranton women's intramural league
6-23) Vacant, no teams are worthy
24.) Tufts
25.) Hope

[saratoga]

Baldini;

How long were you working on that one?

I can't remember anyone saying Scranton should be number 1 or, anywhere close to the top right now.

Thanks for sharing your comic relief, just don't give up the day job.

[Pat Coleman]

Saratoga,

You were not the first poster who came to mind as the target of Baldini's needling.

[saratoga]

Well, that's good to hear as that ship has sailed.

Clearly not number 1 but, not number 17 either. 

[Baldini]

I guess I just don't get what all the angst is about with Scranton's ranking. If a team is not going to be one of the four number 1 seeds, the next goal is to host the first weekend and as long as Scranton takes care of their business they are going to be hosting the first weekend. Because of their geographical location the committee is probably pulling for them to handle their conference business. If they end up 20th in the polls, but win their conference they will still host.

On the other side of the coin is teams like Whitman, Loras and Oglethorpe who will probably be put on the road opening weekend regardless of the fact of being higher in the polls than some teams that will be hosting.

Am I wrong? What am I missing?