WBB: Landmark Conference

scottiedawg · February 11, 2025, 12:00:14 PM

Quote from: Augie2020 on February 11, 2025, 11:57:19 AMSo Bowdoin plays a 24 game schedule Scranton plays a 25 game schedule.Will that interfere with say those 15 games because your taking 9 away from Bowdoin taking 10 from everyone else that plays 25?

If you play fewer games you just have fewer opportunities to potentially improve your NPI.

This definitely affects UAA teams, who only have 25 games in which to build their resume, due to no conference tournament. Most teams will have 26-28 games in which to build their resume.

This also affects Region 10 teams who have trouble filling their schedule with D3 games, due to geography.

Augie2020 · February 11, 2025, 01:14:46 PM

So will Scranton ten games be the same teams Like Wilkes is #409,Lycoming#374,Moravian#291,Juniata#271 and Goucher#232. So to get the top 15 you double that up.Where as in the Nescac they only play some teams once. So if im doing it right the teams taking off would be Salem st #412,Maine Presque isle#386,Curry#272,Wheaton(Mass)#234,NJCU#230,Husson#221,WPI#216,Wesleyan #188,skidmore#164 etc. So conference play kills teams like a Scranton that has a bottom half that is motivated so good.Again they get disciplined even though they played way better teams and beat better teams they are still getting hurt from its league so us Catholic and Etown. Im just guessing that is the way it works or fo they take the worst top ten teams off?

Pat Coleman · February 11, 2025, 01:20:00 PM

In the case of Scranton, six games have already been dropped from the calculation: Two vs. Juniata, one vs. Moravian, one vs. Lyco and two vs. Wilkes.

If you go to the NCAA's NPI page, updated through Sunday, you can click on the ranking for the team and see the breakdown of what currently counts.

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/42874

So for Scranton, when you go to the page, click on the 3 under the NPI rank column -- that's a link you can use to see the details.

scottiedawg · February 11, 2025, 01:23:01 PM

At the end of the day if you have more than 15 wins, only your best 15 need to count.

Scranton's "non-counting wins" will be worse than Bowdoin's non-counting wins (because of the weak bottom of the Landmark).

The change to NPI relatively helps the teams that play in a large conference and who have a weak bottom of the conference.

Teams like: Scranton, Catholic, Etown, Washington & Jefferson (PAC), Trine and Hope (MIAA), Webster (SLIAC)....are teams that in the past were dragged down since every game counted in their aggregate SOS.

NPI effectively reduces that effect, as we only need to judge the top teams on their best 15 wins, not on every win on their schedule. I think this is very useful, as every top 50 team is beating Wilkes twice, but only the Landmark teams are forced to play them twice!

Tune into the show tonight! I'll be walking through 2 very different schedules to explain how NPI gets calculated--Catholic and Maryville. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YswnCaJj34

saratoga · February 11, 2025, 09:10:57 PM

Scott:
Great job on the show tonight.
Lots of questions answered & the mock bracketing projections were a nice addition.

Augie2020 · February 11, 2025, 09:17:26 PM

I second what Saratoga said. In womens basketball Tufts came away with an impressive win at Smith. Giving them their second loss.

ronk · February 11, 2025, 10:52:05 PM

In the mock bracket projection, Smith was the #2 seed in Scranton's quadrant. Wonder what their seed changes to after the loss tonight? 3? 4?

saratoga · February 12, 2025, 08:00:32 AM

That was a hard loss for Smith at home and a big win for Tufts.
They will certainly be impacted by the loss...question remains just how much?
Maybe next week Scott can provide an even more up to date projection as I'm sure a few more "upsets" are bound to happen.

scottiedawg · February 12, 2025, 11:06:50 AM

Quote from: saratoga on February 12, 2025, 08:00:32 AMMaybe next week Scott can provide an even more up to date projection as I'm sure a few more "upsets" are bound to happen.

I plan to be running a new simulation daily.

Unsure if/when there will be any new mock brackets.

ronk · February 14, 2025, 03:32:12 PM

Schedule change for the Scranton games tomorrow: will be @ 1 & 3 instead of 2 & 4.

saratoga · February 19, 2025, 09:20:48 PM

If I'm reading the Landmark by-laws correctly...
Should Scranton defeat E-town Saturday, both the Blue Jays & CUA will have identical records split equally through the points of emphasis.
The final deciding factor will be NCAA NPI rating where Catholic will then slip by E-town for the two slot & the all important bye.

Hard to find fault with 50 point wins but the Lady Royals propensity for not finishing layups really does concern me when in much tighter NCAA tournament games every basket & point will count & will be the difference between an early exit & moving on.

ronk · February 19, 2025, 10:13:47 PM

Quote from: saratoga on February 19, 2025, 09:20:48 PMIf I'm reading the Landmark by-laws correctly...
Should Scranton defeat E-town Saturday, both the Blue Jays & CUA will have identical records split equally through the points of emphasis.
The final deciding factor will be NCAA NPI rating where Catholic will then slip by E-town for the two slot & the all important bye.

Hard to find fault with 50 point wins but the Lady Royals propensity for not finishing layups really does concern me when in much tighter NCAA tournament games every basket & point will count & will be the difference between an early exit & movi ng on.

In this case, probably an extra home game against either Goucher or Juniata on Tuesday, but also a midweek travel trip on Thursday. The home court shouldn't make a difference in this semifinal since each won on the other's court earlier in the season.

saratoga · February 20, 2025, 11:00:42 AM

The home court shouldn't make a difference??
Really?
Do you think Coach Nolt or Donohue would agree?
I mean one of them will be on the road because that's how it has to be but to infer its no big deal is simply not accurate.
Playing on the road pre-Thanksgiving (E-town over CUA by 4) is a very different animal than playing in Feb./March with NCAA tournament seeding implications on the line.
The "visiting" team most certainly can win this game but don't for a second fool yourself that the E-town kids wouldn't rather be shooting at their baskets, in front of their fans, with their lighting, & no 3 hour bus ride.
At this point in the season, home cooking matters.

ronk · February 20, 2025, 11:28:09 AM

Quote from: saratoga on February 20, 2025, 11:00:42 AMThe home court shouldn't make a difference??
Really?
Do you think Coach Nolt or Donohue would agree?
I mean one of them will be on the road because that's how it has to be but to infer its no big deal is simply not accurate.
Playing on the road pre-Thanksgiving (E-town over CUA by 4) is a very different animal than playing in Feb./March with NCAA tournament seeding implications on the line.
The "visiting" team most certainly can win this game but don't for a second fool yourself that the E-town kids wouldn't rather be shooting at their baskets, in front of their fans, with their lighting, & no 3 hour bus ride.
At this point in the season, home cooking matters.

All that is true, but it didn't make a difference 2 weeks ago when all of the implications were also on the line.

saratoga · February 20, 2025, 11:55:42 AM

Just ask any college coach their preference in this type of game.
There will be coach-speak to the players..."it doesn't matter where we play, we're the better team, if we do the things we're good at, take care of the ball, limit turnovers etc. etc".
However, in all my years of coaching I've never felt it didn't matter where we played unless our team was head & shoulders beyond the other team.
Ask 100 coaches of 2 pretty evenly matched teams their preference of home or away & 90 will tell you home.
Regarding the other 10...nine are fibbing & 1 is clueless.