WBB: Landmark Conference

[gordonmann]

Those are fair questions.

I dropped Amherst from No. 2 to No. 7, ahead of all other teams with one loss except Mary Hardin-Baylor (lost to an NAIA school) and St. Thomas (lost to Gustavus after 77 straight wins in conference and has a win over Trinity).  That could end up being too high for Amherst, but Amherst brings back much of what they had last year when the same thing happened. They lost to unranked-but-solid Eastern Connecticut on a night where they shot like poop and then returned to form the rest of the season, losing in double overtime in the Sweet 16 to St. Thomas. There's a leap of faith on my part that Amherst's result against Emmanuel was an aberration but not a very big one. They romped over Eastern Connecticut in their next game.

At this point I have DeSales on my ballot, but don't have Brandeis. Unlike DeSales, Brandeis does not have a recent history of success and that is a factor I consider -- does this program have a history of producing great teams. Brandeis also plays in a much tougher conference than DeSales so it's conceivable that Brandeis could be a better or comparable team to DeSales but never rise on the radar because playing at Wash U, Chicago, Emory and Rochester is much tougher than playing at Misericordia, King's, Eastern and Stevens. If Brandeis puts up the same winning percentage in the UAA that DeSales does, then the Judges will be higher on my ballot.

Consider DeSales and Trinity (Conn.) from last season. The teams played each other evenly over the holidays before DeSales pulled it out at the end. DeSales ended up being the best team in the Atlantic and ranked in the Top 25 most of the season. Trinity was buried in the NESCAC and absent from the Top 25. DeSales was the better team in my opinion, but not by the margin that the polls suggested.

The difference between Scranton and Tufts is really slight and you could certainly flip the two teams.

[Rofrog]

Yes and one of the biggest factors is Scranton brings back the same team but Bridgette(which is a big loss)that beat Tufts.One rule of thumb is until Scranton losses they should have started ahead of Tufts because of the Players Scranton had coming back from that final four trip compared to Tufts losing alot more players that contributed to Tufts.

[Pat Coleman]

Yes and one of the biggest factors is Scranton brings back the same team but Bridgette(which is a big loss)that beat Tufts.One rule of thumb is until Scranton losses they should have started ahead of Tufts because of the Players Scranton had coming back from that final four trip compared to Tufts losing alot more players that contributed to Tufts.

That's certainly a valid opinion for a Scranton fan to take, but the Top 25 voting panel is not made up of 25 Scranton fans, so your mileage may vary.

[gordonmann]

One rule of thumb is until Scranton losses they should have started ahead of Tufts because of the Players Scranton had coming back from that final four trip compared to Tufts losing alot more players that contributed to Tufts.

Fortunately that's something we can quantify through the data we collect.

Points returning: Tufts 79%, Scranton 71%
Rebounds returning: Tufts 87%, Scranton 70%
Assists returning: Tufts 80%, Scranton 69%

Statistically speaking Tufts had more coming back. Each team lost one starter - Mann for Scranton and Knapp for Tufts. Mann was certainly the more impactful player when healthy.

[Roundball999]

For what it's worth (debatable), Massey has Tufts at #2 and Scranton at #8.  In a head to head matchup between the two, Massey gives Tufts a 70% win probability over Scranton at a neutral site with a mean score of 60-53.  Massey algorithms are sketchy early in the season especially, but there's no emotion involved just statistics.

[Rofrog]

Massey also said Tufts would beat Scranton by 15 last year and they didnt.I dont see them as legit.

[Rofrog]

Gordon about Mann she was out 18 games Knapp played every game!So I disagree on that.Plus they had some seniors coming off the bench that can score.Time will tell.

[Rofrog]

Not miles away.Why was Swathmore men picked number one and how did you come to that conclusion?

[Roundball999]

Well that's the funny thing about statistics, they deal in probabilities not certainties.  Massey still has Tufts with a 65% probability to win last year's game but that doesn't make the statistics wrong, it just shows what we all know - no team is a lock when facing a decent opponent.

Probably the statistics Gordon pointed out are more relevant than Massey in this case though. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Not miles away.Why was Swathmore men picked number one and how did you come to that conclusion?

Because Swarthmore made it to the national championship game and lost one player ... one that the team may be even better despite his departure. He was an incredible talent, but was always a work to make sure he stayed within the team. His senior year he did far better. But the guy coming off the bench last year and is starting now is a better defender, better distributor, and can score as well.

And most men's teams have lost a lot of players in turn over. The national champions lost two key players and have gone from being near the top of the preseason poll to out of the poll in the latest release with three losses.

And on the men's side the amount of parity is ridiculous. There is so much talent across up to 40 teams nationwide ... with the next group still capable of beating a lot of the top teams. So, when you only lose one player and bring back all the key pieces otherwise, it is a major note. On the women's side, the talent is significantly more isolated near the top of DIII, so when teams lose significant talent it is more note worthy.

It's kind of an apples and oranges comparison really.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

One rule of thumb is until Scranton losses they should have started ahead of Tufts because of the Players Scranton had coming back from that final four trip compared to Tufts losing alot more players that contributed to Tufts.

Fortunately that's something we can quantify through the data we collect.

Points returning: Tufts 79%, Scranton 71%
Rebounds returning: Tufts 87%, Scranton 70%
Assists returning: Tufts 80%, Scranton 69%

Statistically speaking Tufts had more coming back. Each team lost one starter - Mann for Scranton and Knapp for Tufts. Mann was certainly the more impactful player when healthy.

OOPS. I was supposed to post this earlier and walked away from my computer.

I apologize if this is out of sorts, now.


As a voter who looks at this stuff especially at the beginning of the season ... if I was torn as to who I should rank above who ... the info Gordon shared would have me comfortably putting Tufts ahead of Scranton in this season's poll(s). Sure, Scranton beat Tufts LAST season ... but as pointed out, they both lost a key player, but I think voters feel Scranton's key was more impactful to the overall team than Tufts ... meaning Tufts brings back more impact. And we can't gauge freshmen who haven't played.

And as Ryan pointed out, it seems voters are putting more stock in Scranton even if the poll doesn't show them ahead of Tufts. At this point ... we are splitting hairs.

But a win over a team last year ... doesn't automatically mean a team should be ranked ahead of that team this time around.

You asked about Swarthmore (I'm now catching-up to the conversation at hand) ... I wasn't going to vote for them ahead of UW-Oshkosh to start the season even though UWO beat Swat in the title game. UWO lost more key pieces than Swat did and I felt as a result, Swat was a better team heading into the season. Last year is informative and the players coming back are known, but that doesn't mean last year's results dictate how voters feel about teams in preseason or early in the season.

[saratoga]

Not that I really care about their ranking, but I can't help but wonder how a 9-0 Albright team is not getting any votes when some teams with 3 losses are getting the love?

I understand that their schedule hasn't been exactly challenging, but neither are the schedules thus far of some 2 & 3 loss teams.

Not saying they should be ranked 17th. in the country but zero votes is also kind of hard to believe.

[Tim the Enchanter]

Let me preface this that I don't believe that polls in December before we get into the heart of conference play don't really mean much.

Saratoga, I was thinking the same thing about Misericordia...

In looking into it, it looks like there are 17 undefeated women's D3 basketball teams (18 if you count Maranatha Baptist, which only played one game before today). This list (https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-women/d3/current/team/169) also includes Augsburg, which has a loss.

Of these 17, 5 did not receive any votes:  Albright, Misericordia, Edgewood, Westminster and North Park. 

Not knowing much about them, I'm guessing they have played pretty easy schedules and just need a signature win.  Hmmm... Misericordia may be playing Scranton in the Poinsettia Classic... 

[gordonmann]

As the Top 25 administrator, each week I send the voters an email with the results for every team that received votes in the prior week's poll plus a couple teams I ask voters to consider, figuring someone is falling off their ballot. I want to avoid having group think or stale teams cycle in and out of the poll. I also send voters the link to our standings so they can do their own research. Most weeks there are one or two teams that get votes that weren't on my radar, which I always appreciate.

This week's "please consider" teams were Brandeis (because of the Tufts result), Gustavus (because of the St Thomas win) and Williams. You can see the varying degrees to which voters were interested.

Albright was on my list for next week if they beat Moravian. The Kean win is good, in my mind. Same goes for North Park which plays Wheaton. Edgewood is in one of D3's weaker conferences and would need a bunch more wins.

The early schedules for Miseri and Westminster are really weak. Miseri will eventually play DeDales and, as someone noted, Scranton. Westminster is in tougher spot because St. Vincent or W&J is probably the best team they play but we have a voter from that conference so the Titans shouldn't be overlooked entirely. If only Thomas More we're still there.

On the men's poll, I would have voted Oshkosh over Swarthmore. I apparently would've been wrong. That's why I don't vote in that one.

[Rofrog]

Gordon thanks for the explanation on the poll.I just wish I can see the top 25 from the beginning because I thought Scranton had more first place votes than the top two and why did it drop if that was the case.I thought Scranton had 9 first place vote or was I wrong?