BB: Just Some Guy's West Region Rankings

[canpickit]

If you guys were asking people who read/post on this board what and how many World Series' they have been to I thought I'd throw my list out there, one that could be tough to duplicate.  I was on the 2003' National Champion team as well in the 2005, 2006 and 2007 World Series'.  If not for a 2-1 loss in the 04' Regionals to one of the best D3 pitchers of all-time (Hyde from George Fox), I'd love to think I could have been a part of a World Series team every year I played in college (medical redshirt in 06' but was the 4th coach).  I definitely was blessed to be a part of a successful and consistent program that found a way to win year in and year out.  Getting to Appleton 4 times never got old; everyone involved with the tournament were tremendous and gracious hosts.  Its amazing the caliber of people (from the Oshkosk & Lawrence people to the Timber Rattlers ground crew to the host families to the Paper Valley hotel people) who donate their time so selflessly to make the tournament run at such a high level.  Being away from small-school baseball has been tough, but I, as do many others who post on this board, have enough memories to last a lifetime.

P.S.  I have to admit I took some satisfaction out of my alma mater beating the 07 National Champs last night 19-2, maybe extracting a tad revenge for our loss last year in Appleton.  By the way, that Kean team last year was legit, you're not going to find many pitchers better than Augustine and Zeffiro.

[OshDude]

... Getting to Appleton 4 times never got old; everyone involved with the tournament were tremendous and gracious hosts.  Its amazing the caliber of people (from the Oshkosk & Lawrence people to the Timber Rattlers ground crew to the host families to the Paper Valley hotel people) who donate their time so selflessly to make the tournament run at such a high level ...

Amen. But to be fair, it's about 95 percent Lawrence/host families/T-Rats/Paper Valley and 5 percent Oshkosh, which basically hosts in name only when compared to the others. Oshkosh supplies most of the athletic trainers, its SID and a handful of vendors. While that's something, Lawrence players are the extra guys on the tarp, the dudes supplying the umpires with balls, selling tickets and doing a lot of the other grunt work. The next time you see an Oshkosh player or coach doing that stuff will be the first time.

And I know that stuff is grunt work because I've sold WS tickets in that booth and I've been on that tarp crew (at 3 a.m. the one year I did it). That's because the Lawrence people were beat and the fact that I'm lucky (or unlucky, in this case) enough to hold strong dual LU/UWO ties.

The T-Rats folks are awesome. Thanks for mentioning them. The grounds crew, PR people, the ticket manager and administrative leaders do so much at the WS. It's the relationship with the T-Rats – along with the amazing host families and facilities, from the lodging to the practice areas, to the consistent attendance figures, to a fairly interesting town and area to explore, to the stadium – that make me think that the WS will stay in Grand Chute for a long time, weather permitting  . At least I hope so. Any knucklehead school(s) can host, but our peripheral offerings would be hard to match.

It's always nice to hear/read people talk/write about their WS experiences. I talked to people from Wheaton who asked if there was a direct petition they could sign and send to the NCAA to make sure the WS stayed in Grand Chute. They even planned to revisit the WS in the future, even if their team wasn't in it. Same thing from the 100s of people I've ever talked to at the WS, including your Chapman fans, although they fully expected to watch their team play in their "May home away from home," as they rightfully put it.

[cubs]

... Getting to Appleton 4 times never got old; everyone involved with the tournament were tremendous and gracious hosts.  Its amazing the caliber of people (from the Oshkosk & Lawrence people to the Timber Rattlers ground crew to the host families to the Paper Valley hotel people) who donate their time so selflessly to make the tournament run at such a high level ...

Amen. But to be fair, it's about 95 percent Lawrence/host families/T-Rats/Paper Valley and 5 percent Oshkosh, which basically hosts in name only when compared to the others. Oshkosh supplies most of the athletic trainers, its SID and a handful of vendors. While that's something, Lawrence players are the extra guys on the tarp, the dudes supplying the umpires with balls, selling tickets and doing a lot of the other grunt work. The next time you see an Oshkosh player or coach doing that stuff will be the first time.

And I know that stuff is grunt work because I've sold WS tickets in that booth and I've been on that tarp crew (at 3 a.m. the one year I did it). That's because the Lawrence people were beat and the fact that I'm lucky (or unlucky, in this case) enough to hold strong dual LU/UWO ties.

I'm going to call you out on that one!!!!

I was a player for UWO back in the day, and I did the aforementioned things.....  Guess you must have had your eyes closed that year, since you didn't see it though.

[CUAfan]

Here are the top 10 teams in the West region by second-order winning percentage, using the BaseRuns formula to get each team's expected runs scored and allowed. It is not adjusted for opponent or anything, so keep that in mind. Caltech and La Sierra are not included, as I could not find any season stats for either of them. Not all the stats used were completely up to date (especially in the SCAC)....why are there only stats for 2 of Sewanee's supposed 13 games? After each team and their current second-order winning percentage is their rank from the first time I did this list prior to this past weekend's games (most of them, anyway).

1. Texas-Tyler, ASC -- .884 (1)
2. Linfield, NWC -- .870 (5)
3. Pomona-Pitzer, SCIAC -- .829 (NR)
4. Ozarks, ASC -- .809 (3)
5. Trinity (TX), SCAC -- .787 (4)
6. Rhodes, SCAC -- .780 (7)
7. DePauw, SCAC -- .775 (6)
8. Chapman, IND -- .765 (NR)
9. Mary Hardin-Baylor, ASC -- .736 (8 )
10. Redlands, SCIAC -- .735 (NR)

Dropped out: Puget Sound, NWC (3 to 12); Millsaps, SCAC (9 to 11); George Fox, NWC (10 to 14)

[Just_Some_Guy]

Here are the top 10 teams in the West region by second-order winning percentage, using the BaseRuns formula to get each team's expected runs scored and allowed. It is not adjusted for opponent or anything, so keep that in mind. Caltech and La Sierra are not included, as I could not find any season stats for either of them. Not all the stats used were completely up to date (especially in the SCAC)....why are there only stats for 2 of Sewanee's supposed 13 games? After each team and their current second-order winning percentage is their rank from the first time I did this list prior to this past weekend's games (most of them, anyway).

6. Rhodes, SCAC -- .780 (7)
7. DePauw, SCAC -- .775 (6)

Dropped out:  Millsaps, SCAC (9 to 11)

I believe the only SCAC teams that are actually in the West Region are Trinity, Southwestern and Austin College. The other teams are all part of the South region.

JSG

[OshDude]

I'm going to call you out on that one!!!!

I was a player for UWO back in the day, and I did the aforementioned things.....  Guess you must have had your eyes closed that year, since you didn't see it though.

What year was that? Do you know of anyone who did it before or after you? Were you told to do it or did you volunteer? I'm shocked with this news. Every LU guy I ever talked to said they never had any help from UWO players.

I stand corrected.

[Ralph Turner]

Here are the top 10 teams in the West region by second-order winning percentage, using the BaseRuns formula to get each team's expected runs scored and allowed. It is not adjusted for opponent or anything, so keep that in mind. Caltech and La Sierra are not included, as I could not find any season stats for either of them. Not all the stats used were completely up to date (especially in the SCAC)....why are there only stats for 2 of Sewanee's supposed 13 games? After each team and their current second-order winning percentage is their rank from the first time I did this list prior to this past weekend's games (most of them, anyway).

6. Rhodes, SCAC -- .780 (7)
7. DePauw, SCAC -- .775 (6)

Dropped out:  Millsaps, SCAC (9 to 11)

I believe the only SCAC teams that are actually in the West Region are Trinity, Southwestern and Austin College. The other teams are all part of the South region.

JSG

And Hendrix.   

[cubs]

I'm going to call you out on that one!!!!

I was a player for UWO back in the day, and I did the aforementioned things.....  Guess you must have had your eyes closed that year, since you didn't see it though.

What year was that? Do you know of anyone who did it before or after you? Were you told to do it or did you volunteer? I'm shocked with this news. Every LU guy I ever talked to said they never had any help from UWO players.

I stand corrected.

It was in the 2000 season.....

The only reason I remember the year was because it was quite an eventful one...
-We only got 6 games in on our Spring Trip and and had a bench clearing brawl (bullpens also emptied) against Hendrix College after a runner tried to take out a "young" Vince Mancuso on a play at the plate. 
-We gave up five runs in the bottom of the 9th to lose to UWSP in the WIAC Tournament and finish in 4th, with Whitewater, Point, and La Crosse being crowned "tri-champs."  At that time they still had a point system in place to award the automatic bid.
-Whitewater got the automatic bid that season, and we just so happened to sweep them during the regular season.

Anyway, 2000 was the first year the Series was at Fox Cities Stadium, so there it wouldn't have been possible to work them before, unless of course you wanted to travel to Salem.   Before that however, I (along with other redshirts) also worked during the Midwest Regional that was played at Fox Cities Stadium in 1997 that UWO participated in.

As far as afterwards goes, I couldn't tell you..... and as far as being there, we didn't volunteer.  We were expected to be there!!!

[CUAfan]

Oops. That's what I get for assuming. At least I didn't try to stick the entire UMAC in the West. 

Next time it will just be West teams, promise.

[CUAfan]

Okay, revised list without the out-of-region SCAC. Now my top 10 in the West are as follows:

1. Texas-Tyler, ASC - .884
2. Linfield, NWC - .870
3. Pomona-Pitzer, SCIAC - .829
4. Ozarks, ASC - .809
5. Trinity (TX), SCAC - .787
6. Chapman, IND - .765
7. Mary Hardin-Baylor, ASC - .736
8. Redlands, SCIAC - .735
9. Puget Sound, NWC - .704
10. Dallas, IND - .681

[oldcat]

CUAfan does the BaseRuns formula include pitching stats or is it strictly based on hitting stats?

[CUAfan]

BaseRuns uses hitting stats. The method I used was to calculate team BaseRuns scored and allowed, then input those results into the Pythagorean formula to get an expected winning percentage based off what a team's run differential "should" have been.

Hope that answers your question...it's 2 AM here and I need to get some sleep.   

[oldcat]

Yes it makes sense now. thanks. But another question i have is, would you really put Chapman at 6 on your list?

[CUAfan]

Well, I put Chapman at 6 because that's where they came out in the math. They could very well be better than that (and probably are, if recent history is any indication). Thing is, everything I post by way of a ranking list, be it teams or players, is purely what the numbers end up being. I don't try to evaluate whether or not Team A has more talent than Team B, or whether or not Player A has a better pro shot than Player B; I only try to find out who has been better to date, by the numbers. If it helps, you can think of me of the "stats" side of the whole "stats v. scouts" thing.

[Just_Some_Guy]

Well, I put Chapman at 6 because that's where they came out in the math. They could very well be better than that (and probably are, if recent history is any indication). Thing is, everything I post by way of a ranking list, be it teams or players, is purely what the numbers end up being. I don't try to evaluate whether or not Team A has more talent than Team B, or whether or not Player A has a better pro shot than Player B; I only try to find out who has been better to date, by the numbers. If it helps, you can think of me of the "stats" side of the whole "stats v. scouts" thing.

Basically, he's the West Region's version of Boyd's World. ;-)

And you can consider me to be the perfect combination of stats and scouts. (I'm joking of course)

In all honesty though, an average division III player can start really hot and end up with great numbers because the season is so short. I thought Andrew Teaster of Ozarks was a perfect example of that last year. Typically, the best players will find their way to the top of the stat sheets, but it can go the other way as well. I could probably name quite a few guys I would've rather had up in a clutch situation last year that had significantly lower numbers than Teaster.

There are things that scouts can see (and project for that matter) that a stat sheet might not necessarily convey. At the same time, you can have a a sweet swing, and be a the most phenomenal athlete ever, smooth, fluid, etc. and not ever be able to play this game. Statistics, particularly over a couple of years, can definitely show someone alot, but not everything.

Essentially someone good at manipulating stats can make them tell whatever story they want.

By all accounts I would liken the BaseRuns formula a lot to mid-majors vs. big conference schools (since we're starting the tourney today). It seems to me that solid team can beat up on inferior competition and have be ranked very high in the BaseRuns formula (take a peak at who 5 of Puget Sound's wins are over), while a team that is playing tough competition, winning games by very small margins, but finding a way to win nonetheless might be ranked lower than an actual poll.

That's my two cents, and I'm not sure how well I articulated it, but it doesn't change the fact that CUAfan and all his numbers (Just email Boyd's World and ask for a job man) provide an intresting prospective and another dimension of the game to discuss.

JSG