BB: Just Some Guy's West Region Rankings

[Just_Some_Guy]

Just_Some_Guy's West Region Rankings for the week of March 4th- March 11th:

1. Chapman 13-1 – I am not necessarily convinced that they're in a class all by themselves, but at the same time I wouldn't dare put anyone else at this spot yet. They've certainly played like a team that could repeat as west regional champs and with a solid big three rotation and Yacko in the pen, along with Yacko and the middle infield duo of Cavan and Redding at the plate this team is probably as good as any team in the country right now.

Key Contributors:
RHP Devin Drag – 5-0, 2.19 ERA, 36K's in 37 IP, .223 avg against
RHP/3B Kurt Yacko – 1-0, 0.93 ERA, 30K's in 19.1 IP, .109 avg against
         .483 avg, 5 HR, 23 RBI, .867 SLG, .500 OBP
         (Has been a little vulnerable defensively)
2B Kyle Redding - .447 avg
SS Ryan Cavan - .415 avg, 6-6 SB, .514 OBP (also vulnerable defensively this year)
CF Tyler Dean - .396 avg, 2 HR, .500 OBP, 6-7 SB
RHP Wayde Kitchens 2-1, 2.36 ERA .188 avg against
RHP Matt Luzar 4-0, 2.55 ERA

Key Games: Took 2 of 3 from McMurry, Def. Redlands 16-5, Swept Cal Lutheran



2. UT Tyler 12-0 - Elevating UT Tyler to the #2 spot isn't so much about what George Fox did, but about UT Tyler's sweep of previously #4 Texas Lutheran. I thought this team might just be padding their stats against a soft schedule, but they raised their team batting average after facing TLU to .402. And their team ERA is 2.30. Top to bottom this team can swing it, and with solid starting pitching and a ridiculously talented bullpen (that is used well by the coaching staff), this team could challenge Chapman for west region supremacy if they were eligible for the playoffs this year. Okay, so that's a pretty premature statement, but I feel like this team wins the ASC East by two games or more over UTD.

Key Contributors:
The whole starting lineup – The team is hitting .402 for cripes sakes, led by 3B Towns (.524), SS Fox (.488/.638 OBP), and CF Goss (.462/.632). RF Damewood might be this team's best hitter and he currently has the lowest batting average of any starter with a .333 average. ASC Pre-season POTY, Clay Copeland is hitting .378.
The bullpen – Starting pitching has been solid (they're 8-0). Campbell and Holland are both 3-0 with ERA's under 3.00, but this is a team that can go to any number of guys out of the bullpen. Nate Jennings who has only thrown 5 innings may be the best with a 90+ fastball and has only relinquished 1 hit so far this season.

Key Games: Swept Texas Lutheran, def. McMurry 3-1



3. George Fox 9-0 - Year in and year out George Fox is the premiere team in the NWC, and this year doesn't seem to be any different. With the exception of a pretty solid Cal Lutheran team in their first game of the year George Fox has dismantled everyone they've played on the way to a .354 team batting average and 2.42 team ERA. This team might not have any serious threats until Puget Sound near the end of March so expect their undefeated streak to continue. Hopefully, they'll be prepared for their tough schedule come April.

Key Contributors:
SP Nick Bratney - 3-0, 1.29 ERA, but doing so without seemingly overpowering stuff. Only 6 SO in 21 innings and opponents are hitting .329 against.
SP Chris Albrecht – 3-0, 2.84 ERA
RP Nick Hedgecock – 1-0, 1.35 ERA, .143 against
Daniel Downs - .513 avg, .821 SLG,
Dan Wentzell - .486 avg, .800 SLG, .568 OBP
Drew Johnson - .425 avg, .500 OBP, 10-12 SB
And you can bet Bo Thunnel .333 will be in the mix at the end of the year as well.

Key Games: def. Cal Lutheran 6-3, def Redlands 12-2



4. UT Dallas 9-3 - Led by one of the most potent offensives in D3 baseball, this UTD team made it within one game of defeating TLU and representing the ASC in the region tournament last year.  Well that same offense minus one player is back, and despite seemingly mediocre pitching this team will contend for an ASC title again this year. They're out to a 9-4 start despite a team ERA hovering over 6.00 and opponents hitting over .300 against. With UT Tyler not eligible for the playoffs, only Mississippi will challenge UTD for the East's number one seed.

Key Contributors:
RF Trent Elizondo – .589 avg, 8 2B, .786 SLG, .619 OBP, 18 RBI
CF Mitch Elliot – .447 avg, 2 HR, .809 SLG, 17 RBI, 8-8 SB
2B Brett Rosen – .424 avg, 4 3B, .985 F%
RP/SP Tim Flasik – 1-0, 0.75 ERA, .150 against
SP/RP Andrew Hastings – 2-0, 3.94 ERA

Key Games: Took 2 of 3 from Trinity, Dropped 2 of 3 to McMurry, Swept Southwestern (2 games), Swept Hardin-Simmons (3 games) – impressive schedule thus far, and played well against it.



5. Texas Lutheran 11-3 - For a team that has been one win away from the West Region title two years in a row because of great pitching and solid defense, this team seems sketchy on both this year. While the INF is a different look, the staffs only significant loss was LHP Brian Wallace. This team is not hitting that great either so what makes Texas Lutheran not an average team. They know how to win and they have some sheer grit, get in the trenches and go to work for you type of team. It may be messy, but I have no doubt that Texas Lutheran is in the ASC mix when it's all said and done. They need not dwell on getting swept by a VERY GOOD UT Tyler team at home.

Key Contributors:
SS Jake Kaase - .447 avg, .542 OBP
1B Jason Foley - .407 avg, 6 2B
SP Daniel Besa - 3-0, 2.95 ERA, 22 SO, 21.1 IP, .256 against
RP Robert Conley - 1.00 ERA, 1 SV, .125 against
Also, RP Tom Hembree has yet to give up a hit in 5 IP
This team needs SPs Adam Enloe and Kyle Newman to get back to last years form.

Key Games: def. Southwestern 9-3, defeated Trinity 5-0, swept by UT Tyler (3 games)



6. Redlands 9-3 - Emerging as the #1 team in the SCIAC, the Redlands return nearly the whole team that was the #1 seed in the West Region tournament last year. This Redlands team evidently has a lot of depth judging by the way the games played and innings have been dispersed throughout thus far this year. There are definitely some whispers that the SCIAC isn't a very strong conference, but with many key players a year older, and playoff experience under their belt, don't take this team lightly by any stretch of the imagination. This team is tearing up the basepaths with 46 SB in 51 attempts.

Key Contributors:
Rob Sieffert - 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 11 SO in 11.1 IP, .135 against
Kyle Gardner - 1-1, 3.38 ERA/ hitting .438 at the plate
Rob Walker - 3-1, 3.54 ERA,
Ryan Garcia - .500
Matt Goldstein - .440, 5-5 SB
Also Billy LaVelle (.429, 6-7 SB), Kyle Rizzo (.409, 9-9 SB), and Luke Wetmore has 4 HRs

Key Games: def. Pac Lutheran 7-2, lost to George Fox 2-9, lost to Linfield 6-9, def Cal Baptist 3-2, lost to Chapman 5-16


7. Trinity 5-5 - Trinity hasn't been able to put it all together yet this year, and have lost two more games against good competition since these rankings have come out. The offense has been a little worse than I expected with only Vera, C Teddy Wilson and 2B Steven Ramos swinging it very well. The pitching hasn't been very good at all with Britton Horn and at times Drew Bignall throwing like TU would expect from this deep pitching staff. That said, if this pitching staff comes around like it's capable of (i.e. Bronson, Poffenroth and Oates picking it up), and Hunter and Hopkins maintaining the way they're throwing this team will still find it's way into the West Regional. Why?  Because they're going to dismantle everyone in the SCAC other than Millsaps, and be competitive in the SCAC tournament.

Key Contributors:
2B Steven Ramos - .478, .547 OBP, 3-5 SB
CF Nick Vera - .386, 2 HR, 14 RBI, .682 SLG, 6-6 SB
SP Drew Bignall - 1-0, 1.84 ERA, but opponents are hitting .332 w/ 3 bombs against
SP Britton Horn - 0-0, 2.18 ERA, .253 against
RP Ryan Hopkins - 1-0, 2.53 ERA, .256 against

Key Games: lost 2 of 3 to UT Dallas, lost to TLU 0-5, Hardin Simmons 5-10 and McMurry 2-4



8. McMurry 6-6 - This McMurry team has taken 2 of 3 from two ASC East playoff mainstays the last two weekends. In addition they beat a solid Trinity team (despite their horrid start). With Nick Schafer back from an injury that has kept him out the last two years and TR Cody Curry throwing well this is really a whole new look team on the bump and throughout the lineup. While some familiar faces (David, Vorhees, Cervantez and Casey) are back, McMurry has used 6 transfers and freshman Jake Jackson a lot in their new look starting lineup and they've probably played the toughest schedule to date in the country.  Look for this team to make a run at the ASC West, especially if they pitch like they did against Mississippi and not like they did against UT Dallas.

Key Contributors:
2B Weston Franco - .485, 2 HR, 12 RBI, .727 SLG, .526 OBP, F% 1000
3B/1B/LF Derek David - .411, 8 2B, .643 SLG
1B/DH Brent Vorhees - .296, 6 HR, 14 RBI,
SP/RP Clint Johnston 1-1, 2.20 ERA, 16 Ks in 16.1 IP, .233 against
SP Nick Schafer 3-0, 2.37 ERA, .232 against

Key Games: Virtually everyone on their schedule so far. Kudos to coach Lee Driggers for getting McMurry such a solid preseason schedule. Lost to UT Tyler 1-3, Lost 2 of 3 to Chapman, Lost to Southwestern 11-12, took 2 of 3 from UTD, took 2 of 3 from Mississippi College, def Trinity 4-2



9. East Bay 9-3 - This team made a decent showing last year at the West Regionals, but they also lost some key contributors from that team including the 2nd basemen (whose name currently escapes me that got drafted and was a HUGE spark plug). They're hitting only .287 as a team and they haven't played really tough competition yet, but ace Sean O'Dowd is leading the way on the mound. The teams' ERA is 3.07 and F% is .964 and that'll keep you in games. If this team scraps the same way they did last year and two Texas teams make it in again this year - you could feasibly see East Bay get a big this year as well.

Key Contributors:
C Mark Tuttle - .615, .923 SLG, .711 OBP,
RF Jesus Muela - .424, 2 HR, 14 RBI,
DH Michael Thomasson - .356, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 4-4 SB
SP Sean O'Dowd - 3-0, 1.37 ERA, 25 Ks in 26.1 IP, .196 against
SP Kyle Dunn - 2-1, 2.31 ERA
RP Matthew Viera - 1-0, 3.38 ERA, 13 Ks in 8 IP, .207 against

Key Games: Eh. We'll go with def. La Verne 11-4, dropped two to Claremont Mudd Scripps 3-5, 7-8



10. Pac. Lutheran 9-3 - The Lutes have won 20+ games for three straight seasons and have made themselves a consistent contender in the NWC. I don't think they overtake GFU for the NWC Title, but two NWC teams got in two years ago and it seems as though Pac Lutheran may be stronger than Linfield this year (though it's too early to tell). This team isn't incredible on paper, though they are fielding at a .970 clip, but with the parity going on in the SCIAC it made more sense to include the Lutes than a Cal Lu team that dropped 2 of 3 to a Pomona team we can't tell much about just yet. Anyone that says early season rankings aren't purely speculation is a liar.

Key Contributors:
1B Jordan Post - .415, .529 OBP
LF Tyler Green - .351, 5 HR,
CF Ryan Thorne - .354, 7-7 SB
SP Joe DiPietro - 3-1, 2.67 ERA
SP Brett Brunner - 1-1, 2.87 ERA, .230 against

Key Games: Lost to Redlands 2-7, Lost to Cal Lutheran 1-7, def. La Verne 16-6, swept Menlo (3 games)




Others: Cal. Lutheran, Pomona Pitzer, Concordia

Note: Rankings do not include any games played after Sunday the 4th, but the statistics were of the day I did the actual write up for that respective team. Enjoy!  These will probably go to bi-weekly rankings as they take me so long to do when I write up this much, etc.

Some_Guy

[Ralph Turner]

Please remember that UT-Tyler is a 4th year provisional member and is not eligible for the NCAA Playoffs.

[Just_Some_Guy]

...this team could challenge Chapman for west region supremacy if they were eligible for the playoffs this year. Okay, so that's a pretty premature statement, but I feel like this team wins the ASC East by two games or more over UTD.

Hence that line in my analysis.

Some_Guy

[Ralph Turner]

...this team could challenge Chapman for west region supremacy if they were eligible for the playoffs this year. Okay, so that's a pretty premature statement, but I feel like this team wins the ASC East by two games or more over UTD.

Hence that line in my analysis.

Some_Guy

Thanks.  I appreciate your analysis.  +1
I think that they are that good, too.

[Bearkat00]

I know this is going out on a limb, but UTT may be the best team in the nation as fas as d3 baseball goes and they are only going to get better.  If you haven't seen them play yet, you need to.  This is the most complete baseball team they've ever ahd there and they have a  couple of freshman who are just waiting in the wings to get some playing time.  The only thing that I see there hurting them is the fact that it looks like they may over recruit, which could come back to bite you down the road. 

[Just_Some_Guy]

I FINALLY finished the rankings that I started on Monday, complete with analysis, key contributors and key games.  Per usual, I'd love to hear feed back, discussion regarding the rankings. There should be some solid games this weekend so I might do a power rating type thing or do a top ten, but without all the analysis, etc.

Some_Guy

[snoop dawg]

Just Some Guy,

Obviously you are not ......just some guy.  That was a very insightful summary.  Thank you for  the time and effort in providng us with such great info.  I think you have correctly summarized Redlands as a team to be concerned with. 

I think over the next two years they will continue to improve and be considered one of the best in the west!

[Ralph Turner]

+1, Looks about right!

Marietta comes to Abilene next week for games with McMurry, HSU, UT-Dallas and Southwestern!

[Bearkat00]

Great analysis this week!

I'll be at the MC - UTT game tonight and then the LETU - LA College tomorrow.

[Just_Some_Guy]

IF I would've done a poll this week, it would look something like this:

1. UT Tyler 16-0 - They're that good, they're that deep
2. Chapman 15-2 - They beat Tyler with Drag on the mound, other than that, I don't know
3. George Fox 12-0 - The class of the NWC
4. UT Dallas 12-5 - Ridiculous offensive numbers
5. McMurry 10-7 - Has played the toughest schedule of anyone in the west region bar none
6. Redlands 12-4 - Loss to Pomona keeps them from being #5
7. Texas Lutheran 13-4-1 - Pitching/Defense have been poor
8. Pomona Pitzer 12-5 - Big weekend at Calif Invit Tournament
9. Cal St. East Bay 11-5 - I don't think this record against this schedule will get them a bid this year
10. Puget Sound 7-5 - 6-0 in the NWC including a sweep of Linfield

Others:
Concordia Austin 11-9 - Losses to Huston-Tilliton, and a vastly improving Schreiner team keep them out
Hardin Simmons 8-7 - Potent lineup, not much pitching thus far
Trinity 5-9 - I just can't justify putting them in with this record, they'll be back I believe
La College 14-6 - Quietly playing pretty good baseball in the ASC East, shadowed by Tyler/Dallas
Mississippi 8-11 - played decent this year, lots of talent, sweep to #1 UT Tyler means nothing
Pac Lutheran 10-5 - probably not as good as I originally thought

[Bearkat00]

UTT is just amazing.  I watched the Fri night drubbing of MC and I would agree with Just_Some's analysis that MC being swept by UTT means nothing.  They make plays....the hit the ball well....they get the bunt down....they throw a lot of strikes.  There was nothing MC could do.  I really though MC threw the ball well, it's just UTT had a lot of hits with 2 strikes.  They made nice plays all around the INF. 

I also think they may have the nicest D3 facility in this region. 

[Blackcat00]

Concordia Austin probably plays the hardest non schedule of any D3 team in the conference. Texas Weslayen and Nationaly ranked Houston Baptist (NAIA) every year.

I remember playing opening up with TEXAS the year they won the national championship in 02 and playin Texas A&M Kingsville, and Lubbock Christian. Dont be deceived by their early record. And if im not mistaken. They are the only ASC team to be in the playoffs or tournament the last 5 years. And the only ASC team to make the World Series in Appleton Wisconsin.

[Ralph Turner]

Concordia Austin probably plays the hardest non schedule of any D3 team in the conference. Texas Weslayen and Nationaly ranked Houston Baptist (NAIA) every year.

I remember playing opening up with TEXAS the year they won the national championship in 02 and playin Texas A&M Kingsville, and Lubbock Christian. Dont be deceived by their early record. And if im not mistaken. They are the only ASC team to be in the playoffs or tournament the last 5 years. And the only ASC team to make the World Series in Appleton Wisconsin.

Welcome to the board, Blackcat.

Just one point of clarification for your expectations come NCAA playoff time...

I have copied the Concordia schedule and stricken the games that have no value in the primary criteria used by the committee.


02/02/07 Fri Houston Baptist  HOME  L 2-5   
02/03/07 Sat Houston Baptist  HOME  L 3-7   
02/04/07 Sun Texas Wesleyan  HOME  W 6-4   
02/09/07 Fri Houston Baptist  Houston  L 0-10   
02/10/07 Sat Houston Baptist  Houston  L 2-3   
02/11/07 Sun Huston-Tillotson  HOME  W 6-5   
02/16/07 Fri Southwestern  HOME  W 11-0   
02/17/07 Sat Southwestern (DH)  Georgetown  L, W 3-4   6-3 
02/18/07 Sun Alumni  HOME  1 p.m.   
02/23/07 Fri East Texas Baptist University  HOME  W 4-2   
02/24/07 Sat East Texas Baptist (DH)  HOME  W, W 4-3  38-10 
02/25/07 Sun Huston-Tillotson  Downs Field  L 8-5   
03/02/07 Fri University of the Ozarks  Clarksville, AR  W 12-8   
03/03/07 Sat University of the Ozarks (DH)  Clarksville, AR  W/L 7-4  10-14  
03/05/07 Mon Huston-Tillotson  HOME  L 7-4   
03/09/07 Fri Schreiner  Kerrville, TX  W 14-7   
03/10/07 Sat Schreiner (DH)  Kerrville, TX  L/W 1-0  7-0 
03/13/07 Tue Concordia-Seward  HOME  Cancelled    
03/16/07 Fri Texas Lutheran  Seguin, TX  2 p.m.   
03/17/07 Sat Texas Lutheran (DH)  Seguin, TX  1 p.m.   
03/19/07 Mon Doane College  HOME  7 p.m.    
03/23/07 Fri Howard Payne  HOME  7 p.m.   
03/24/07 Sat Howard Payne (DH)  HOME  1 p.m.   
03/30/07 Fri Sul Ross State  Alpine, TX  7 p.m.   
03/31/07 Sat Sul Ross State  Alpine, TX  12 p.m.   
04/05/07 Thu Hardin Simmons  HOME  7 p.m.   
04/06/07 Fri Hardin-Simmons (DH)  HOME  1 p.m.   
04/13/07 Fri McMurry  Abilene  7 p.m.   
04/14/07 Sat McMurry (DH)  Abilene, TX  1 p.m.   
04/20/07 Fri University of Mary Hardin Baylor  HOME  7 p.m.   
04/21/07 Sat Mary Hardin-Baylor (DH)  HOME  1 p.m. 


Those 30 games are the only ones that the NCAA Handbook uses to evaluate CUA come playoff time, (and the ASC Post-season tourney games.)

Your West Region record is 6-3.

Concordia-Austin is the only ASC team to make it to the D3 World Series.  TLU, McMurry and Miss College have also made the NCAA playoffs.

[mideastfan]

+1, Looks about right!

Marietta comes to Abilene next week for games with McMurry, HSU, UT-Dallas and Southwestern!

Marietta has beaten McMurry and UT-Dallas, and plays a split doubleheader today against HSU and Southwestern.  The competition is very good, and Marietta is holding their own during a "reloading"season.  Marietta never rebuilds, just reloads.  They lost 4 of their top 5 pitchers off last year's title team, but this year's squad is playing well so far.

[utilitycat17]

Concordia Austin probably plays the hardest non schedule of any D3 team in the conference. Texas Weslayen and Nationaly ranked Houston Baptist (NAIA) every year.

I would argue that McMurry plays a better non-conference schedule.  At the very least it is a more important schedule.  One game against Texas Wesleyan and losing four to Houston Baptist don't really make for a full schedule.  McMurry played 3 against Chapman winning 1.  They lost 3-1 to Tyler.  They also beat Trinity and lost by only 2 to Marietta.  Not to mention the games against the ASC East teams. 

I do have a side question though.  According to Concordia's schedule they played 4 games against Houston Baptist, however, according to Houston Baptist's schedule they played 6 games.  I would assume that one of the schedules is wrong, and I can't imagine Baptist making up 2 extra games out of thin air.  Is it just an oversite on Concordia's schedule or did the games not count for some reason.