Great Lakes Region

[KnightSlappy]

The AMCC is now in the Great Lakes Region, but the rankings as per the handbook remains at 7 teams.

Remember that the vRRO will still be applicable every regional ranking week, but since it is "once ranked, always ranked" now the final regional rankings that are private will have vRRO we don't see. Also, if you play 70% of your games in region so all of your games count in the primary criteria - the vRRO will be reflected there as well.

The AMCC is now in the Great Lakes Region, but the rankings as per the handbook remains at 7 teams.

If I remember correctly, they've always used traditional rounding rules to determine the number of ranked teams in each region, so the GL should be at 8 this year.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

This is true... though the handbook reads 49 schools and 7 bids... the 6.5 ratio gives us 7.538... so who knows.

[KnightSlappy]

This is true... though the handbook reads 49 schools and 7 bids... the 6.5 ratio gives us 7.538... so who knows.

Ah, just got my first glance of the manual. Looks like they're ranking 15% (or a minimum of 6), so the 6.5 bracket ration no longer applies. I'm not sure why you'd do a minimum of six, however.

[realist]

Is KVS on the committee this year?  Seems like I read or heard that somewhere, but can't find the info right now?

Yes. KVS is chair(man) of the Great Lakes Regional Advisory Committee. The role of the regional advisory committee is to assist the Division III Men's Basketball Committee in the evaluation of teams throughout the season in regional rankings, the evaluation of potential regional sites and the selection of teams for the championship.

Thanks.

[kiltedbryan]

A couple weeks away from the first official rankings.  Here's the in-region records taken off the d3hoops schedules.  These are rife with accounting errors as there seems to be lots of confusion on what counts and what shouldn't.  I've filled the blanks in where I could.

Pat has all the AMCC schools within the Great Lakes Region, this should up the number of ranking slots to 7.  I assume this means that move is official now.


Wooster              13-0
St. Vincent           11-1
PSU-Behrend       13-2
Ohio Wesleyan   12-3
Wittenberg         12-3
Bethany              12-3
Mt. Union            12-3
Hilbert                 12-3
Calvin                   8-3**
DePauw              10-4
Marietta              10-4
LaRoche              10-4
John Carroll        10-5
Wilmington         8-5
Hope                   8-5
Trine                   8-5
Albion                 7-6

**  I can only assume Calvin believes they have an exemption to count all D3 games.  Their actual in-region D3 games is less than the 70% needed to count all of them.  If they don't have an exemption their regional record is 6-1


Wooster is pretty rock solid the #1 ranked team in this region.  St. Vincent and PSU-Behrend aren't likely to have better overall criteria than Wooster even if Wooster accumulates 1 more loss than these two teams.  In short, Wooster has a lot of cushion.

A lot of head-head match-ups remaining so losses will accumulate.    I wouldn't rule out the 5 loss teams but they're in the territory of having to run the table.  I imagine Hope and Wilmington will both have very good strength of schedule numbers.

I spent some of my MLK Day working on calculating both in-region records and OWP for the top Great Lakes teams. My analysis isn't ready for prime time, but I will agree with both of these statements. Wooster's an extremely strong #1 in the GL right now...through Saturday's games their in-region OWP was .572, which seems like it would be among the top 10-15 OWPs in the region based on teams I calculated OWPs for, and would account for 2/3s of the strength of schedule rating. Sorry, no calculations on what their OOWP would be. St. Vincent, by comparison, had an OWP of .479. +100 points of OWP is a lot.

To sac's second point on Hope and Wilmington: Through Saturday's games I had Hope's OWP at .686, by *far* the best in the region (of the 2 dozen or so I calculated). Wilmington was at .557; Marietta a bit higher, actually, at .584.

I'll try to make progress on adding more of them so that I could provide periodic updates here as we move toward rankings.

Also, is the NCAA still doing the home-neutral-away weighting factors this year? 1.25 for away, 1.00 for neutral and 0.75 for home? Or was that discarded?

[sac]

Went ahead and updated this through Wed. night's games.  Bethany lost to Thomas More 82-74 in OT and Calvin beat Trine 71-49

Wooster              14-0
St. Vincent           12-1
PSU-Behrend       13-2
Ohio Wesleyan   13-3
Wittenberg         13-3
Mt. Union            13-3
Hilbert                 12-3
Calvin                   9-3**
Bethany              12-4
DePauw              11-4
Marietta              11-4
LaRoche              10-4
John Carroll        11-5
Wilmington         9-5
Hope                   9-5
Trine                   8-6
Albion                 7-6



Two head-to-head games involving these teams this weekend.

Wooster at DePauw
Marietta at Wilmington

[KnightSlappy]

St. Vincent and Grove City not yet reporting, but otherwise this (should be) complete through Wednesday:

Rank   Team        Conf   WP      wSOS    wRPI    Natl NCWP    NCSOS   NCRPI   Rank   Pool   D3   vRRO   OVR
1     Wooster      NCAC   1.000   0.539   0.654   5    1.000   0.535   0.651   18   A   14-0   0-0   15-1
2     Ohio WesleyanNCAC   0.813   0.543   0.610   24   0.857   0.551   0.628   32   C   13-3   0-0   13-3
3     Hope         MIAA   0.643   0.599   0.610   25   0.556   0.663   0.636   28   A   9-5   0-0   10-6
4     DePauw       NCAC   0.733   0.561   0.604   30   0.667   0.611   0.625   33   C   11-4   0-0   12-4
5     Marietta     OAC    0.733   0.558   0.602   31   0.667   0.576   0.599   49   C   11-4   0-0   12-4
6     St. Vincent  PrAC   0.917   0.489   0.596   36   0.800   0.530   0.598   50   A   11-1   0-0   14-2
7     Bethany      PrAC   0.750   0.539   0.592   42   0.750   0.570   0.615   37   C   12-4   0-0   13-4
008   Wilmington   OAC    0.643   0.560   0.580   59   0.400   0.542   0.507   198   C   9-5   0-0   10-5
009   Penn State-B AMCC   0.867   0.481   0.577   63   0.857   0.475   0.571   78   A   13-2   0-0   13-2
010   Mount Union  OAC    0.813   0.495   0.574   67   0.714   0.478   0.537   139   A   13-3   0-0   13-3
011   Wittenberg   NCAC   0.813   0.495   0.574   69   0.857   0.478   0.573   76   C   13-3   0-0   13-3
012   Bald Wallace OAC    0.563   0.576   0.573   71   0.571   0.619   0.607   42   C   9-7   0-0   9-7
013   Car Mellon   UAA    0.615   0.539   0.558   93   0.600   0.465   0.499   217   C   8-5   0-0   9-5
014   John Carroll OAC    0.688   0.509   0.553   101   0.857   0.468   0.565   88   C   11-5   0-0   11-5
015   Grove City   PrAC   0.545   0.549   0.548   107   0.500   0.530   0.523   167   C   6-5   0-0   7-8
016   Case Western UAA    0.643   0.510   0.543   117   0.727   0.471   0.535   144   C   9-5   0-0   9-5
017   Calvin       MIAA   0.750   0.455   0.529   147   0.714   0.488   0.545   123   C   9-3   0-0   12-4
018   Ohio NorthernOAC    0.500   0.538   0.529   149   0.571   0.581   0.578   69   C   8-8   0-0   8-8
019   Capital      OAC    0.438   0.558   0.528   152   0.429   0.600   0.557   98   C   7-9   0-0   7-9
020   Denison      NCAC   0.500   0.525   0.519   164   0.571   0.525   0.537   140   C   8-8   0-0   8-8

Sorted by RPI. Home/Away multiplier included. 'NC' is non-conference.

[sac]

St. Vincent won

[KnightSlappy]

Not every score in the D3 world has been reported, but this should be reasonable accurate for GL teams through Wednesday.

GL   WP      wSOS    wRPI    NAT   CONF   TEAM
01   1.000   0.538   0.654   005   NCAC   Wooster
02   0.813   0.542   0.610   024   NCAC   Ohio Wesleyan
03   0.643   0.597   0.608   027   MIAA   Hope
04   0.733   0.560   0.603   030   NCAC   DePauw
05   0.733   0.555   0.600   032   OAC    Marietta
06   0.923   0.481   0.591   041   PrAC   St. Vincent
07   0.750   0.538   0.591   044   PrAC   Bethany
08   0.643   0.559   0.580   059   OAC    Wilmington
09   0.867   0.479   0.576   064   AMCC   Penn State-Behrend
10   0.813   0.495   0.574   067   NCAC   Wittenberg
11   0.813   0.493   0.573   069   OAC    Mount Union
12   0.563   0.574   0.571   073   OAC    Baldwin Wallace
13   0.615   0.547   0.564   080   UAA    Carnegie Mellon
14   0.688   0.511   0.555   100   OAC    John Carroll
15   0.643   0.509   0.543   117   UAA    Case Western Reserve
16   0.583   0.523   0.538   123   PrAC   Grove City
17   0.750   0.454   0.528   150   MIAA   Calvin
18   0.500   0.537   0.528   151   OAC    Ohio Northern
19   0.438   0.557   0.527   153   OAC    Capital
20   0.500   0.524   0.518   166   NCAC   Denison

[kiltedbryan]

Thanks KS - really appreciate getting these snapshots of the region!

[wooscotsfan]

Thanks KnightSlappy -- these RPI ratings for the Great Lakes are very informative! k+

It is interesting where Wittenberg and Mt. Union fall on his list (behind teams like St. Vincent and Penn St. Behrend) and then you look at their weak strength of schedule and the reason is obvious.

[sac]

Pitt-Greensburg 65 PSU-Behrend 61
DePauw 78  Wooster 74

[KnightSlappy]

Pitt-Greensburg 65 PSU-Behrend 61
DePauw 78  Wooster 74

Wooster will hold on to the RPI lead in the GL, but DePauw looks like they might slide into the #2 spot (we'll keep our eye on what happens in Delaware).

Calvin drops to 20th after beating Olivet on the road.

[sac]

Marietta 78 Wilmington 76

[KnightSlappy]

Mostly complete through Saturday. Numbers 2-5 are basically a tie in terms of RPI.

RG   ##   WP      wSOS    wRPI    NAT   D3      RRO   CONFER   TEAM
GL   01   0.933   0.559   0.653   005   14-1    0-0   NCAC     Wooster
GL   02   0.750   0.566   0.612   021   12-4    0-0   OAC      Marietta
GL   03   0.643   0.601   0.612   022   9-5     0-0   MIAA     Hope
GL   04   0.750   0.562   0.609   023   12-4    0-0   NCAC     DePauw
GL   05   0.824   0.538   0.609   024   14-3    0-0   NCAC     Ohio Wesleyan
GL   06   0.923   0.475   0.587   049   12-1    0-0   PrAC     St. Vincent
GL   07   0.765   0.521   0.582   052   13-4    0-0   PrAC     Bethany
gl   08   0.824   0.491   0.574   062   14-3    0-0   NCAC     Wittenberg
gl   09   0.813   0.492   0.572   065   13-3    0-0   OAC      Mount Union
gl   10   0.824   0.480   0.566   077   14-3    0-0   AMCC     Penn State-Behrend
gl   11   0.600   0.553   0.565   079   9-6     0-0   OAC      Wilmington
gl   12   0.529   0.569   0.559   087   9-8     0-0   OAC      Baldwin Wallace
gl   13   0.688   0.512   0.556   092   11-5    0-0   OAC      John Carroll
gl   14   0.571   0.529   0.540   120   8-6     0-0   UAA      Carnegie Mellon
gl   15   0.538   0.533   0.534   134   7-6     0-0   PrAC     Grove City
gl   16   0.500   0.541   0.531   141   8-8     0-0   OAC      Ohio Northern
gl   17   0.471   0.550   0.530   143   8-9     0-0   NCAC     Denison
gl   18   0.471   0.550   0.530   144   8-9     0-0   OAC      Capital
gl   19   0.769   0.449   0.529   147   10-3    0-0   MIAA     Calvin
gl   20   0.600   0.505   0.528   148   9-6     0-0   UAA      Case Western Reserve