Great Lakes Region

[sac]

Regarding undefeated Marietta, maybe not a perfect example, but one that came to mind for me - St. Norbert last year in the Midwest.

2014, Midwest regional ranking #3 (Feb 26)
1   Washington U.   22-2   22-2
2   Illinois Wesleyan   22-3   22-3
3   Wheaton (Ill.)   17-8   17-8
4   Augustana   19-6   19-6
5   St. Norbert   21-1   22-1
6   Carthage   15-8   16-9
7   Rose-Hulman   20-5   20-5
8   Chicago   14-9   15-9

http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankings&sportCode=MBB&region=35&division=3

(St. Norbert's loss was to UW-Whitewater, the #2-ranked team from the West region.)

Interesting that St. Norbert had an OWP of .509 and could only get a #5 ranking with that one loss to Whitewater.    At the moment Marietta is below .500, next week I think they'll creep above .500

Ohio Wesleyan looks to have similar criteria to that #4 Augustana team.  17-4 with OWP of .545,  Augie was 19-6 OWP .553

[ziggy]

GREAT LAKES         
1   Marietta   21-0   21-0
2   Ohio Wesleyan   17-4   17-4
3   Wooster   16-5   16-5
4   Case   12-5   14-6
5   Hope   13-6   14-7
6   Saint Vincent   14-6   15-6
7   Mount Union   16-5   16-5
8   John Carroll   15-5   15-5
9   Penn State-Behrend   19-2   19-2

[sac]

GREAT LAKES         
1   Marietta   21-0   21-0
2   Ohio Wesleyan   17-4   17-4
3   Wooster   16-5   16-5
4   Case   12-5   14-6
5   Hope   13-6   14-7
6   Saint Vincent   14-6   15-6
7   Mount Union   16-5   16-5
8   John Carroll   15-5   15-5
9   Penn State-Behrend   19-2   19-2

Quick take......Hope's #5 ranking continues to suggest OWP and OOWP weigh heavily.  The difference between OWU and Marietta simply wasn't enough to justify OWU ranked higher.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2015/02/11/first-regional-rankings-released-today/

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

sac - you keep referencing OWP and OOWP... remember, the SOS is what is factored... the OWP and the OOWP are not considered separately at all. I keep getting the sense you think they are separate numbers.

And the committee seems to be saying... strong SOS numbers are nice, but you have to prove you can win as well - not going to reward let's call it "false" SOS numbers.

[sac]

Second take

Not sure I understand Calvin being out of the poll behind PSU-Behrend.   16-5  .516 OWP and 2-0 against a team they slotted #5 and I can't imagine their other criteria is any less than what PSU-Behrend has.   Behrend is 19-2 with a .445 SOS. 

That's a significant gap, at least worth 3 wins I think.  Maybe Hope's #5 isn't because of OWP and more because of head-to-head results against OWU, Wooster and Mt. U.  (2-1)

In that case OWP isn't being used in the same dramatic way as years past.  A little confusing.

[KnightSlappy]

Second take

Not sure I understand Calvin being out of the poll behind PSU-Behrend.   16-5  .516 OWP and I can't imagine their other criteria is any less than what PSU-Behrend has.   Behrend is 19-2 with a .445 SOS. 

That's a significant gap, at least worth 3 wins I think.  Maybe Hope's #5 isn't because of OWP and more because of head-to-head results against OWU, Wooster and Mt. U.  (2-1)

In that case OWP isn't being used in the same dramatic way as years past.  A little confusing.

Calvin also has the 2-0 H2H with Hope and common opponent (Hope) advantage over Mount Union. Not sure how you say John Carroll is above Penn State-Behrend but Calvin isn't.

[sac]

10-15 are probably Calvin, Trine, Baldwin-Wallace, Defiance, DePauw, Medaille in some order.

[KnightSlappy]

Updated the blog to use the SOS method the NCAA told us they weren't using but they really are using.

[ziggy]

Second take

Not sure I understand Calvin being out of the poll behind PSU-Behrend.   16-5  .516 OWP and I can't imagine their other criteria is any less than what PSU-Behrend has.   Behrend is 19-2 with a .445 SOS. 

That's a significant gap, at least worth 3 wins I think.  Maybe Hope's #5 isn't because of OWP and more because of head-to-head results against OWU, Wooster and Mt. U.  (2-1)

In that case OWP isn't being used in the same dramatic way as years past.  A little confusing.

Calvin also has the 2-0 H2H with Hope and common opponent (Hope) advantage over Mount Union. Not sure how you say John Carroll is above Penn State-Behrend but Calvin isn't.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next two updates as results versus regionally ranked opponents gets included in the mix. Could really ding Hope and doesn't really look to do any benefit for St. Vincent, Mt. Union or John Carroll either.

[sac]

Updated the blog to use the SOS method the NCAA told us they weren't using but they really are using.

Is this the tweak that makes home games more difficult than road games?  Last year I remember you throwing out what you called a "correct OWP" for Hope and it was lower than what the NCAA used.

This new tweak makes Hope's OWP higher.  Moved them up 7 places on your RPI chart.

[sac]

Second take

Not sure I understand Calvin being out of the poll behind PSU-Behrend.   16-5  .516 OWP and I can't imagine their other criteria is any less than what PSU-Behrend has.   Behrend is 19-2 with a .445 SOS. 

That's a significant gap, at least worth 3 wins I think.  Maybe Hope's #5 isn't because of OWP and more because of head-to-head results against OWU, Wooster and Mt. U.  (2-1)

In that case OWP isn't being used in the same dramatic way as years past.  A little confusing.

Calvin also has the 2-0 H2H with Hope and common opponent (Hope) advantage over Mount Union. Not sure how you say John Carroll is above Penn State-Behrend but Calvin isn't.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next two updates as results versus regionally ranked opponents gets included in the mix. Could really ding Hope and doesn't really look to do any benefit for St. Vincent, Mt. Union or John Carroll either.

Hope would be 2-3 in RvRRO as it stands  (OWU, Wooster, Mt. U, Whitewater, StevensPoint)
With Calvin ranked 2-5
With Trine ranked 3-4
With both Calvin and Trine ranked 3-6

I don't think St.Vincent, JCU or MTU can do better.  Maybe if JCU or MTU can beat Marietta.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

All well in good after the rankings come out... and that will be their numbers next week.

[KnightSlappy]

Updated the blog to use the SOS method the NCAA told us they weren't using but they really are using.

Is this the tweak that makes home games more difficult than road games?  Last year I remember you throwing out what you called a "correct OWP" for Hope and it was lower than what the NCAA used.

This new tweak makes Hope's OWP higher.  Moved them up 7 places on your RPI chart.

It's the tweak that makes road games weigh more heavily than home games. Not more heavily as in difficulty, but that the SOS components of the home games get shrunk and the away games get amplified.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

We have had the 1.25 to 0.75 multiplier in place for several years (even going through a tweek of those numbers). It is an effort for teams that always want to play at home to stop being rewarded for playing tough schedules in their friendly confines every single year.