Great Lakes Region

[EttaFan1]

Baffling loss is right.  It was a bad loss. Marietta "spit the bit" so to speak.  The Pioneers had a 7 point lead with a minute to play.  Between the inability to get the ball over the division line, and the inability to make free throws down the stretch, St. Vincent was able to tie.  Marietta continued to struggle with full court pressure and was unable to convert on the offensive end, and just like that they were on the wrong end of the score. 

It should be classified for what it is.  A bad, in region loss.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Marietta has put their foot on this region. Wow.

Certainly a surprise to me considering the losses this team took heading into the season between graduation and other issues. I really thought they'd still be a good squad, finish in the top 3 of the OAC and maybe sneak out an at-large bid if they could get to 20 wins. Here they are now at 21-2 and one hand on the OAC title probably sitting on top of the Great Lakes Regional Rankings next week. Heck of a job by Coach VanderWal and crew.

Marietta is an outstanding team and they are a joy to watch.  As I said in the OAC post, I wish our two schools could play every week this season. The way they defended Linnane was textbook but cannot be easily replicated by other schools because most other schools do not have the talent to execute. Hoping for two more games between these two.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Marietta has put their foot on this region. Wow.

Listening to your Hoopsville broadcast, Dave. . . .you should have made the drive.  These are two outstanding teams.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Marietta has put their foot on this region. Wow.

Certainly a surprise to me considering the losses this team took heading into the season between graduation and other issues. I really thought they'd still be a good squad, finish in the top 3 of the OAC and maybe sneak out an at-large bid if they could get to 20 wins. Here they are now at 21-2 and one hand on the OAC title probably sitting on top of the Great Lakes Regional Rankings next week. Heck of a job by Coach VanderWal and crew.

Marietta is an outstanding team and they are a joy to watch.  As I said in the OAC post, I wish our two schools could play every week this season. The way they defended Linnane was textbook but cannot be easily replicated by other schools because most other schools do not have the talent to execute. Hoping for two more games between these two.

Appreciate the kind words about Marietta. It's a special group this year that really plays well together as a TEAM. John Carroll is a quality Top 10-15 team in my mind and as long as the wheels don't fall off the wagon for either team here this week, I think we'll see both make the NCAA Tournament this year.

[sac]

Updated thru Sun 2/14   Bold =  SOS over .500

Hope                               19-1
Marietta                           21-2
John Carroll                     21-2
PSU-Behrend                  20-2

------------------------.900

Ohio Wesleyan                 20-3
Hilbert                              20-4

------------------------.800

Alma                             18-5
Hiram                            17-5
St. Vincent                   17-6
Wooster                        16-6

------------------------.700

Mt. St. Joseph              15-7
Grove City                     15-7
Mt. Union                      14-7
Bethany                        14-8
Trine                             14-8
Thomas More                14-8
Rose-Hulman                14-8
Wittenberg                    14-9
Pitt-Greensburg            14-9
Baldwin-Wallace            14-9
Defiance                       14-9
Denison                        13-9
Thiel
Albion                           11-9

------------------------.600

-----------------------------------.500



Northcoast:  OWU and Wooster still tied, both should win both games this week.  Hiram has two tricky tests with Denison and Wittenberg

MIAA:  Alma and Hope remain tied, both have banana peel games in front of them

OAC:   Marietta now leads the OAC and finish with two roads games at Otterbein and ONU,  John Carroll has to travel to Mt. Union Wed.

PAC:  St. Vincent leads by 2 games and needs to find just one win out of trips to Thiel and Thomas More this week.  2nd place Grove City has to play Bethany and Thiel

HCAC:  MSJ and Defiance are tied with Rose-Hulman just a game back.

AMCC:  PSU-Behrend leads by 1 game and travel to 2nd place Hilbert on Wednesday, followed by a trip to 3rd place Pitt-Greensburg

Wednesday Games
PSU-Behrend at Hilbert
John Carroll at Mt. Union
Alma at Albion

Saturday
PSU-Behrend at Pitt-Greensburg
St. Vincent at Thomas More
Bethany at Grove City

[sac]

Knightslappy's data is updated through 2/14
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

Marietta, Ohio Wesleyan, Hope, John Carroll, Alma all look in good position for a "C" if they need it at the moment.  Wooster would be on a bubble.  After that I think its not a realistic possibility for anyone else.  Mt. Union's not totally dead yet but they would need to win out and lose the OAC title game, even then it would be a long shot.


Thinking way ahead........Interesting scenario might be if Hiram wins out and beats Wooster in the NCAC semi-final.   Hiram has decent criteria but probably not enough to get selected as an at-large.  Wooster might have its bubble burst by that loss leaving the NCAC with just one bid in Ohio Wesleyan.   


As far as rankings, with both Trine and Mt. Union losing twice last week the door is open for PSU-Behrend or Mt. St. Joseph to get a good look, but both lost games last week.   Outside of last weeks ranked 9, the next most logical teams just don't have better numbers than Trine or Mt. Union.

[HOPEful]

Knightslappy's data is updated through 2/14
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

As far as rankings, with both Trine and Mt. Union losing twice last week the door is open for PSU-Behrend or Mt. St. Joseph to get a good look, but both lost games last week.   Outside of last weeks ranked 9, the next most logical teams just don't have better numbers than Trine or Mt. Union.

What about Albion? Would winning out and then losing to Hope in the MIAA tournament championship game put them in the discussion (that would include two wins against Alma)?

[sac]

That would put them 14-10, a win percentage of .583, no way that gets ranked or they ever make it to the Pool C table.

[HOPEful]

That would put them 14-10, a win percentage of .583, no way that gets ranked or they ever make it to the Pool C table.

I agree with you. However, I think if Albion finishes with a higher RPI than Trine (which they currently have), you should probably leave Trine off the list as well...

[sac]

I put all the 9 loss teams back on the board.  Helps to see all the teams even if many of them have no chance at all of being ranked.


Albion has a nice RPI but D3 doesn't use RPI, they use a convoluted system that uses components of RPI to try and arrive at something that RPI actually is without doing the math.

Using the D3 way, Trine still has better numbers than Albion.

[sac]

Two interesting things about the chart above

1)  Many of the head-to-heads among last weeks ranked teams are season splits, only Marietta over MTU, and Hope/Alma over Trine were sweeps.


2)  All of the teams with SOS above .500 are from the NCAC, OAC and MIAA.

[EttaFan1]

Interesting to see that Marietta's RPI of .648 is tied for the highest (Augustana) in the country. 

The difference between Hope's and Alma's RPI is paper thin - .004.

[fantastic50]

Wooster has the 4th-highest SOS on Matt Snyder's nationwide list of 320 teams, behind Emory, North Central, and sub-.500 Methodist, putting the Scots in the top 20 in RPI despite six losses.  While that SOS number will drop with three weaker opponents upcoming, I wonder whether it might make the difference of getting a Pool C, even if they fell to Hiram in the NCAC semis?

The other Great Lakes teams with a top-50 SOS are are Alma (22nd), Marietta (29th), and Albion (38th), with Mt Union 58th, but Hiram is 220th and Behrend is 316th, out of 320.

[sac]

Mt Union lost to Muskingum tonight 83-80,  I would say Mt Union's pool c chances are dead.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Remember that results versus regionally ranked opponents becomes a factor this week... so trying to read into what the committee decided last week and use that to base on this week without considering vRRO is basically a fool's errand. Just food for thought.

And I know it has been mentioned prior, but since it was brought up again... D3 (and actually many national committees in the NCAA) don't use RPI... they use another formula called SOS - Strength of Schedule. RPI isn't considered a worthwhile numbers since there isn't as much national cross over and playing as we see in Division I basketball. Thus not as many think the RPI represents the division well. Whether that is true or not is up for debate (we don't have to debate it, I am just mentioning it).