Great Lakes Region

[sac]

Capital 84  Denison 75....and zero undefeated teams left in the Great lakes.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Capital 84  Denison 75....and zero undefeated teams left in the Great lakes.

The interesting thing about this game was that Denison led in this one by 21 at one point...a complete turning of the tables and another feather in the cap for the OAC this year.

[sac]

Taking a stab at Great Lakes rankings if they were this week

1.  Denison
2.  Mt. St. Joseph
3.  Marietta
4.  Hope
5.  Hanover
6.  LaRoche
7.  Thomas More
8.  Calvin
9.  John Carroll


Others:  Mt. Union, Anderson, Medaille, Carnegie Mellon

Denison is pretty clear #1, separating 2 through 5 is more difficult, you can make good cases for each, I strictly went by record/SOS leaving head-to-head asside for now.  LaRoche has the record but not the SOS, Calvin and Thomas More in the best spot with 4 losses.  JCU better SOS than 4 loss Anderson, Medaille and 5 loss Mt. Union/ Carnegie. 

Quality wins (those over teams that I ranked or would obviously be ranked in other regions)
Denison  --none
Mt. St. Joseph--  John Carroll, Hanover
Marietta -- LaRoche, Christopher-Newport
Hope --  John Carroll, River Falls
Hanover  --John Carroll
LaRoche -- none
Thomas More -- Mt. St. Joseph
Calvin -- none
John Carroll  --  LaRoche, Marietta

Mt. Union --  none
Anderson --  Mt. St. Joseph
Medaille --  none
Carnegie Mellon -- Brockport St.

This was a quick excercise, I'm open to changes.  Some traditionally pretty strong programs sitting on 6 losses already  Wooster, OWU, Capital.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Taking a stab at Great Lakes rankings if they were this week

1.  Denison
2.  Mt. St. Joseph
3.  Marietta
4.  Hope
5.  Hanover
6.  LaRoche
7.  Thomas More
8.  Calvin
9.  John Carroll


Others:  Mt. Union, Anderson, Medaille, Carnegie Mellon

Denison is pretty clear #1, separating 2 through 5 is more difficult, you can make good cases for each, I strictly went by record/SOS leaving head-to-head asside for now.  LaRoche has the record but not the SOS, Calvin and Thomas More in the best spot with 4 losses.  JCU better SOS than 4 loss Anderson, Medaille and 5 loss Mt. Union/ Carnegie. 

Quality wins (those over teams that I ranked or would obviously be ranked in other regions)
Denison  --none
Mt. St. Joseph--  John Carroll, Hanover
Marietta -- LaRoche
Hope --  John Carroll, River Falls
Hanover  --John Carroll
LaRoche -- none
Thomas More -- Mt. St. Joseph
Calvin -- none
John Carroll  --  LaRoche, Marietta

Mt. Union --  none
Anderson --  Mt. St. Joseph
Medaille --  none
Carnegie Mellon -- Brockport St.

This was a quick excercise, I'm open to changes.  Some traditionally pretty strong programs sitting on 6 losses already  Wooster, OWU, Capital.

I'll take a shot at this too...

1. Denison (not the best SOS and I'm still not completely sold that they're the best team in the region but they're 14-1 and have earned the top spot.)
2. Marietta (SAC I believe we can add Christopher Newport to the list of quality wins here as well)
3. Hope (I like Hope over MSJ at this point, similar D3 records but I like Hope's schedule a little more)
4. MSJ
5. Hanover
6. John Carroll (may still end up being the best team in this region, playing really well right now but still feeling the effects of the sluggish start.)
7. Wooster
8. Calvin
9. Mt. Union

Unfortunately, for La Roche and Thomas More..SOS is going to be a big negative for them. I could see them on here with 1 loss, MAYBE 2 but La Roche has 3 losses and Thomas More 4. The last 3 or 4 could go a lot of directions...Ohio Wesleyan is right there with that group as well. Another thing that could hurt John Carroll is early losses to Hanover and MSJ...that could come back to bite them.

[HOPEful]

The below numbers don't include this weekend's games, but here are KnightSlappy's Regional rankings numbers
(found at http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/)

My question is... with such an awful SOS, is it really a given that Denison is the 1? Massey puts them behind Marietta and Hope and just ahead of Mt. St. Joe.

Rank   Team          WP       SOS       RPI    D3   vRRO   OVR       1   Marietta           0.714   0.619   0.643   10-4   0-0   10-4       2   Mt St Joseph   0.846    0.534   0.612   11-2   0-0   11-3       3   John Carroll     0.615   0.609   0.610   8-5   0-0   8-5       4   Hope               0.750   0.560   0.607   9-3   0-0   10-4       5   Capital            0.643   0.579   0.595   9-5   0-0   9-5       6   Hanover          0.818   0.516   0.591   9-2   0-0   11-2       7   Denison          0.929   0.457   0.575   13-1   0-0   13-1       8   Mt Union         0.643   0.542   0.567   9-5   0-0   9-5       9   La Roche        0.786    0.494   0.567   11-3   0-0   11-3

[KnightSlappy]

The below numbers don't include this weekend's games, but here are KnightSlappy's Regional rankings numbers
(found at http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/)

My question is... with such an awful SOS, is it really a given that Denison is the 1? Massey puts them behind Marietta and Hope and just ahead of Mt. St. Joe.

I just updated the sheet.

Interesting to me: Calvin would be flirting with the No. 9 spot in the region by RPI had they managed to beat Millikin. 

I do not think Denison would be ranked at the top of the region right now. That SOS is so so bad. Then again, the region is so so bad.

[KnightSlappy]

The below numbers don't include this weekend's games, but here are KnightSlappy's Regional rankings numbers
(found at http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/)

My question is... with such an awful SOS, is it really a given that Denison is the 1? Massey puts them behind Marietta and Hope and just ahead of Mt. St. Joe.

Rank   Team          WP       SOS       RPI    D3   vRRO   OVR       1   Marietta           0.714   0.619   0.643   10-4   0-0   10-4       2   Mt St Joseph   0.846    0.534   0.612   11-2   0-0   11-3       3   John Carroll     0.615   0.609   0.610   8-5   0-0   8-5       4   Hope               0.750   0.560   0.607   9-3   0-0   10-4       5   Capital            0.643   0.579   0.595   9-5   0-0   9-5       6   Hanover          0.818   0.516   0.591   9-2   0-0   11-2       7   Denison          0.929   0.457   0.575   13-1   0-0   13-1       8   Mt Union         0.643   0.542   0.567   9-5   0-0   9-5       9   La Roche        0.786    0.494   0.567   11-3   0-0   11-3

Massey does not use the NCAA criteria so you really can't use it to predict regional rankings at all.

The GL RAC really has their work cut out for them this year. They have three weeks of action before they start the official rankings so hopefully some things start to sort themselves out. Nine ranked positions but only four teams currently have a WP over .700 and an SOS over .500 (and one region over Carthage is .714/.604 and not a slam dunk to get ranked in the Central).

[Fifth and Putnam]

I knew Denison's SOS was bad, but I didn't realize it was THAT bad. Yea, I don't think you can put them at #1 considering the SOS. I'd probably slide Marietta up to 1. Still several weeks before this is for real and I am guessing these teams will take some more losses before we get there.

[KnightSlappy]

I would quickly go:

1. Marietta
2. Hope
3. Mt. St. Joseph
4. Hanover
5. Denison
6. John Carroll
7. Mt. Union
8. La Roche
9. Thomas More

[HOPEful]

Massey does not use the NCAA criteria so you really can't use it to predict regional rankings at all.

I'm aware. I was more adding it in there as an additional point of reference to highlight the point that I don't see Denison as the automatic top team in the GL.

The GL RAC really has their work cut out for them this year. They have three weeks of action before they start the official rankings so hopefully some things start to sort themselves out.

Or it gets muddier! Marietta goes to Columbus on Wednesday and hosts JC on Saturday. Mount St. Joe doesn't play anyone notable until Anderson in February. Can you imagine the mess if Hope loses at calvin next week or Marietta drops one either at Capital or at home to John Carroll?

[KnightSlappy]

Massey does not use the NCAA criteria so you really can't use it to predict regional rankings at all.

I'm aware. I was more adding it in there as an additional point of reference to highlight the point that I don't see Denison as the automatic top team in the GL.

The GL RAC really has their work cut out for them this year. They have three weeks of action before they start the official rankings so hopefully some things start to sort themselves out.

Or it gets muddier! Marietta goes to Columbus on Wednesday and hosts JC on Saturday. Mount St. Joe doesn't play anyone notable until Anderson in February. Can you imagine the mess if Hope loses at Calvin next week or Marietta drops one either at Capital or at home to John Carroll?

Yes. Yes I can. 

[HOPEful]

And I'd probably go...

1. Marietta
2. Hope
3. Mt. St. Joseph
4. John Carroll
5. Hanover
6. Denison
7. Capital
8. Mt. Union

[Fifth and Putnam]

It's so weird seeing an NCAC team having such a low SOS...

The big obvious drag on their schedule is W&J (0-15) in Game #1. Brooklyn and Mt. St. Vincent over the holidays did nothing for them either (combined 6-26).

They have a good win over Ohio Northern...Case Western is so so..not awful but not a great win. Unfortunately, 2-3 games are absolutely killing the SOS.

I remember a few years back we had similar discussion over Marietta's SOS which was dragged down by La Roche who was 1-24 that year. 

[sac]

Denison's current advantage is really a math issue with a midseason number of games.  14-1 now is .933, thats a 200 point gap over Marietta's .733.  Lets say both teams win all six of their games over the next 3 weeks.  Denison goes to .952, Marietta .810, that gap is now less than 140. 

In three weeks Marietta will be alot closer if both teams keep winning, the SOS difference would be easier to overcome that gap.

Marietta also has a head-to-head problem having lost to John Carroll right now.  JCU has lost to Hanover, Mt. St. Joseph and Hope.  IMO it would be hard to just slot Marietta ahead of Denison given those results.  If Marietta beats Capital(who beat Denison) and JCU this next week, then I think its a lot easier to put Marietta ahead of Denison.

[sac]

And I'd probably go...

1. Marietta
2. Hope
3. Mt. St. Joseph
4. John Carroll
5. Hanover
6. Denison
7. Capital
8. Mt. Union

I don't think you can rank JCU ahead of Hanover right now given Hanover beat JCU and has 3 fewer losses.