Great Lakes Region

[sac]

Great Lakes--Conference leaders, Pool C picture


Record--team--W%/SOS--Games remaining against other leaders or PoolC's in parenthesis

AMCC
15-5  Medaille  .750/.469   
15-6  LaRoche  .714/.494 

HCAC
15-3  Hanover  .833/.524              (@MtStJoseph 2/15)
17-3  Mt. St. Joseph  .850/.515     (Hanover 2/15)
14-6  Anderson  .700/.500

MIAA
16-3 Hope     .842/.530 

NCAC
17-4  Denison      .810/.470   
15-6  Wooster      .700/.540     ( @Ohio Wes. 2/11, Wittenberg 2/18)
15-6  Ohio Wes.   .714/.501     (Wooster 2/11, @Wittenberg 2/15)
15-6  Wittenberg  .714/.465     (Ohio Wes. 2/15, @Wooster 2/18)

OAC
17-4  Marietta    .810/.591             (Ohio No. 2/18)
14-6  John Carroll    .700/.580       (Ohio No. 2/11)
14-7  Ohio No.    .667/.539           (@John Carroll 2/11, @Marietta 2/18)

PAC
16-4  St. Vincent   .800/.464     (@Thomas More 2/15)
14-6  Thomas More  .700/.503  (St. Vincent 2/15)

This is pretty much the data used for this Wed's ranking.




My total stab at a ranking might be:
1.  Marietta
2.  Hope
3.  Hanover
4.  Mt. St. Joseph
5.  John Carroll
6.  Wooster
7.  Denison
8.  Ohio Wesleyan
9.  St. Vincent

Wooster-Denison is really close I could go either way and be content.  Slots 8 and 9 are pretty difficult which is looking at either low SOS or under .700 records.  ONU wouldn't be a bad choice, better if they win twice twice next week. 

Slots 8 and 9 aren't going to have much of a Pool C chance but who gets slotted there will impact rankings ahead of them.  JCU would really like an OAC team in one of those slots for the RRO's, Wooster-Denison would like an NCAC,  Hanover-Mt St. Joe would love to see Anderson there.

[fantastic50]

My total stab at a ranking might be:
1.  Marietta
2.  Hope
3.  Hanover
4.  Mt. St. Joseph
5.  John Carroll
6.  Wooster
7.  Denison
8.  Ohio Wesleyan
9.  St. Vincent

Wooster-Denison is really close I could go either way and be content.  Slots 8 and 9 are pretty difficult which is looking at either low SOS or under .700 records.  ONU wouldn't be a bad choice, better if they win twice twice next week. 

Slots 8 and 9 aren't going to have much of a Pool C chance but who gets slotted there will impact rankings ahead of them.  JCU would really like an OAC team in one of those slots for the RRO's, Wooster-Denison would like an NCAC,  Hanover-Mt St. Joe would love to see Anderson there.

At this point, I would say
1) Marietta (17-4, .591) - easily #1
2-5) In some order, Hope (16-3, .530), Hanover (15-3, .524), MSJ (17-3, .515), JCU (14-6, .580) - not sure where JCU lands
6) Wooster (15-7, .540) - ahead of Denison because the .070 SOS difference
7) Denison (17-4, .470)
8) Ohio Northern (14-7, .539) - SOS is far better than any other contender
9) St Vincent (16-4, .464) has numbers that look a lot like those of Denison

I could easily see OWU (15-6, .501), Thomas More (14-6, .503), Anderson (14-6, .500), or LaRoche (15-6, .494) as #9 instead.

The top 5 look like strong Pool C candidates, with Wooster on the fringe of bubble contention.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

My total stab at a ranking might be:
1.  Marietta
2.  Hope
3.  Hanover
4.  Mt. St. Joseph
5.  John Carroll
6.  Wooster
7.  Denison
8.  Ohio Wesleyan
9.  St. Vincent

Wooster-Denison is really close I could go either way and be content.  Slots 8 and 9 are pretty difficult which is looking at either low SOS or under .700 records.  ONU wouldn't be a bad choice, better if they win twice twice next week. 

Slots 8 and 9 aren't going to have much of a Pool C chance but who gets slotted there will impact rankings ahead of them.  JCU would really like an OAC team in one of those slots for the RRO's, Wooster-Denison would like an NCAC,  Hanover-Mt St. Joe would love to see Anderson there.

At this point, I would say
1) Marietta (17-4, .591) - easily #1
2-5) In some order, Hope (16-3, .530), Hanover (15-3, .524), MSJ (17-3, .515), JCU (14-6, .580) - not sure where JCU lands
6) Wooster (15-7, .540) - ahead of Denison because the .070 SOS difference
7) Denison (17-4, .470)
8) Ohio Northern (14-7, .539) - SOS is far better than any other contender
9) St Vincent (16-4, .464) has numbers that look a lot like those of Denison

I could easily see OWU (15-6, .501), Thomas More (14-6, .503), Anderson (14-6, .500), or LaRoche (15-6, .494) as #9 instead.

The top 5 look like strong Pool C candidates, with Wooster on the fringe of bubble contention.

I think you could make a good argument for Denison to be 8th or even 9th.  Using the previous discussion of "converting SOS differences to W-L", you could argue both Ohio Wesleyan and Ohio Northern should be ranked ahead of them.

[sac]

Official

GREAT LAKES               
Rank   School   In-Region Record   Overall Record      
1   Marietta            17-4            17-4      
2   Hope            16-3            17-4      
3   Mt. St. Joseph     17-3            17-4      
4   Hanover            15-3            17-3      
5   John Carroll    14-6            14-6      
6   Wooster            15-6            15-6      
7   Ohio Northern    14-7            14-7      
8   Ohio Wesleyan     15-6            15-6      
9   Denison            17-4            17-4


All the rankings
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3/regional-rankings-0

[fantastic50]

I have been experimenting with simulating all future games (including conference tournaments) and mock selections.  This is still in a rough form, but here's what I have on the GL region at the moment, ranked by bid probability if in Pool C.  Raw data is from Ken Massey's site, so the school names are in his format, for now.

Team (W-L, SOS, conf record) NCAA berth probability & breakdown
1) Marietta (18-4, 0.589, OAC 13-2) 99% (40% AQ, or 99% if in Pool C)
2) Hope (17-3, 0.533, MIAA 11-0) 99% (74% AQ, or 97% if in Pool C)
3) Hanover (16-3, 0.521, HCAC 13-2) 92% (40% AQ, or 87% if in Pool C)
4) Mt_St_Joseph (16-4, 0.517, HCAC 12-3) 79% (35% AQ, or 68% if in Pool C)
5) John_Carroll (15-6, 0.569, OAC 12-3) 77% (27% AQ, or 68% if in Pool C)
6) Wooster (16-6, 0.535, NCAC 13-2) 53% (35% AQ, or 28% if in Pool C)
7) Denison (18-4, 0.465, NCAC 12-3) 21% (16% AQ, or 6% if in Pool C)
8) Anderson_IN (15-6, 0.496, HCAC 12-3) 19% (15% AQ, or 4% if in Pool C)
9) Medaille (16-5, 0.477, AMCC 13-2) 53% (52% AQ, or 3% if in Pool C)

Others...
Ohio_Wesleyan (16-6, 0.497, NCAC 13-2) 31% (30% AQ, or 1% if in Pool C)
Ohio_Northern (15-7, 0.538, OAC 13-2) 29% (26% AQ, or 3% if in Pool C)
PSU-Behrend (16-6, 0.452, AMCC 11-4) 22% (22% AQ)
Wittenberg (16-6, 0.457, NCAC 10-5) 18% (18% AQ)
La_Roche (15-7, 0.501, AMCC 11-4) 12% (11% AQ, or 1% if in Pool C)
Alma (11-11, 0.515, MIAA 7-4) 11% (11% AQ)
Calvin (11-8, 0.494, MIAA 7-4) 8% (8% AQ)
Hilbert (13-9, 0.458, AMCC 9-6) 7% (7% AQ)
Transylvania (13-8, 0.526, HCAC 9-6) 7% (7% AQ)
PSU-Altoona (12-9, 0.438, AMCC 11-4) 6% (6% AQ)
Trine (10-11, 0.504, MIAA 6-5) 6% (6% AQ)
Mt_Union (13-9, 0.556, OAC 8-7) 3% (3% AQ)
Rose-Hulman (11-11, 0.504, HCAC 9-6) 3% (3% AQ)
Pitt-Bradford (11-10, 0.431, AMCC 9-6) 2% (2% AQ)

[fantastic50]

My guess at this week's regional rankings.  I think that #3-5 could be in any order, and so could #6-8.  No one really deserves the #9 spot, so I left ONU there after a close loss on the road to a quality opponent.

1) Marietta (19-4, 0.580, 3-4, LW#1)
2) Hope (18-3, 0.525, 2-1, LW #2)
3) Hanover (17-3, 0.514, 1-2, LW #4)
4) John Carroll (16-6, 0.571, 2-5, LW #5, W vs ONU)
5) Mt St Joseph (17-4, 0.513, 2-0, LW #3, L at Transylvania)
6) Wooster (16-7, 0.543, 3-5, LW #6, L at Ohio Wesleyan)
7) Ohio Wesleyan (17-6, 0.503, 2-4, LW #8, W vs Wooster)
8) Denison (19-4, 0.460, 3-2, LW #9)
9) Ohio Northern (15-8, 0.545, 2-3, LW #7, lost at John Carroll)

St Vincent (17-5, 0.476, 1-0, L at Bethany)
Thomas More (15-6, 0.496, 1-0)
Anderson (IN) (16-6, 0.495, 1-3)

[HOPEful]

So back in 2014, Hope hosted Wheaton even though everyone seemed to think that Wheaton was more deserving (Hope lost to Penn St. Behrend) and the best reason for doing so seemed to be the Hope finished 2nd in the Great Lakes region.

Is this an actual thing? Does number 2 in the GL have significant weight when it comes to hosting that first weekend?

[sac]

#1 and #2 from each region hosting is believed to have held mostly true the last 3 or 4 years, with deference to women's programs a couple of times.  (St. Thomas)

Women have priority for round 1 and 2 in odd years.  The Hope women are currently 4th in their region and probably out of hosting position.  So yes, at the moment Hope's men are probably in a position to host the 1st and 2nd round.

As we've seen in the recent past that can change pretty easily.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Last year the Chair said publicly they gave hosting duties to the 16 best teams on their list regardless of region.  That ended up being the top 2 from 6 of the 8 regions and the 3rd in two of them.  I imagine that it would be tough to not give a #1 in each region a chance to host, but we might see that happen if the Atlantic or South have a weak #1.

[fantastic50]

Last year the Chair said publicly they gave hosting duties to the 16 best teams on their list regardless of region.  That ended up being the top 2 from 6 of the 8 regions and the 3rd in two of them.  I imagine that it would be tough to not give a #1 in each region a chance to host, but we might see that happen if the Atlantic or South have a weak #1.

I think that geography forces things a bit on this issue.  Both Whitman and Whitworth may deserve to host, but are there enough tournament teams within driving distance to have pods in both Walla Walla and Portland?  I suspect that the ASC champ will host, even if they aren't close to the top 16 nationally. 

The strong Central region will likely get 3 hosts (Wash U. plus two WIAC schools), so for geographic reasons, that probably means Hope will host from the GL, along with Marietta. The Northeast should get three (Babson plus two NESCAC teams) but may deserve even more.  Maybe three from the Mid-Atlantic (Susquehanna, Salisbury, Christopher Newport), but only Rochester in the East, and only either Neumann or Ramapo in the Atlantic?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Last year the Chair said publicly they gave hosting duties to the 16 best teams on their list regardless of region.  That ended up being the top 2 from 6 of the 8 regions and the 3rd in two of them.  I imagine that it would be tough to not give a #1 in each region a chance to host, but we might see that happen if the Atlantic or South have a weak #1.

I think that geography forces things a bit on this issue.  Both Whitman and Whitworth may deserve to host, but are there enough tournament teams within driving distance to have pods in both Walla Walla and Portland?  I suspect that the ASC champ will host, even if they aren't close to the top 16 nationally. 

The strong Central region will likely get 3 hosts (Wash U. plus two WIAC schools), so for geographic reasons, that probably means Hope will host from the GL, along with Marietta. The Northeast should get three (Babson plus two NESCAC teams) but may deserve even more.  Maybe three from the Mid-Atlantic (Susquehanna, Salisbury, Christopher Newport), but only Rochester in the East, and only either Neumann or Ramapo in the Atlantic?

Remember, with no byes this year... anything is possible. I do not think the committee will allow Whitman and Whitworth BOTH to host and I don't think Whitworth will be allowed to be shipped elsewhere. However, there is a distinct chance that if only two Texas schools get in (assuming the SCAC champ is from Texas and not Colorado), they could BOTH be shipped somewhere else. You have to fly two teams to the Northwest, you have to fly the SCIAC champ somwhere, and you may be able to fly both Texas schools somewhere. And yes, there is a chance they park the two Texas schools for the same reason as the Northwest, though you STILL have to fly two teams to Texas, two teams to the NW, and the SCIAC team out. This actually makes for some interesting ideas... and I think last year showed the NCAA has loosened the purse strings a little and allowed for some more national feel. That's thanks to the Division III schools now paying more dues and a new contract with Turner/CBS bringing more money. I am not saying there will absolutely be more flights, but there is a better chance now than two or three years ago.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Last year the Chair said publicly they gave hosting duties to the 16 best teams on their list regardless of region.  That ended up being the top 2 from 6 of the 8 regions and the 3rd in two of them.  I imagine that it would be tough to not give a #1 in each region a chance to host, but we might see that happen if the Atlantic or South have a weak #1.

I think that geography forces things a bit on this issue.  Both Whitman and Whitworth may deserve to host, but are there enough tournament teams within driving distance to have pods in both Walla Walla and Portland?  I suspect that the ASC champ will host, even if they aren't close to the top 16 nationally. 

The strong Central region will likely get 3 hosts (Wash U. plus two WIAC schools), so for geographic reasons, that probably means Hope will host from the GL, along with Marietta. The Northeast should get three (Babson plus two NESCAC teams) but may deserve even more.  Maybe three from the Mid-Atlantic (Susquehanna, Salisbury, Christopher Newport), but only Rochester in the East, and only either Neumann or Ramapo in the Atlantic?

Remember, with no byes this year... anything is possible. I do not think the committee will allow Whitman and Whitworth BOTH to host and I don't think Whitworth will be allowed to be shipped elsewhere. However, there is a distinct chance that if only two Texas schools get in (assuming the SCAC champ is from Texas and not Colorado), they could BOTH be shipped somewhere else. You have to fly two teams to the Northwest, you have to fly the SCIAC champ somwhere, and you may be able to fly both Texas schools somewhere. And yes, there is a chance they park the two Texas schools for the same reason as the Northwest, though you STILL have to fly two teams to Texas, two teams to the NW, and the SCIAC team out. This actually makes for some interesting ideas... and I think last year showed the NCAA has loosened the purse strings a little and allowed for some more national feel. That's thanks to the Division III schools now paying more dues and a new contract with Turner/CBS bringing more money. I am not saying there will absolutely be more flights, but there is a better chance now than two or three years ago.

There's also a chance, if Rhodes hosts, that one of the Texas teams can drive there, which would pretty much guarantee them a host.  We're still probably going to get the SCIAC champ and someone from Texas at Whitman, but the other ASC/SCAC school has a lot more options this year.

[Gregory Sager]

Last year the Chair said publicly they gave hosting duties to the 16 best teams on their list regardless of region.  That ended up being the top 2 from 6 of the 8 regions and the 3rd in two of them.  I imagine that it would be tough to not give a #1 in each region a chance to host, but we might see that happen if the Atlantic or South have a weak #1.

I think that geography forces things a bit on this issue.  Both Whitman and Whitworth may deserve to host, but are there enough tournament teams within driving distance to have pods in both Walla Walla and Portland?  I suspect that the ASC champ will host, even if they aren't close to the top 16 nationally. 

The strong Central region will likely get 3 hosts (Wash U. plus two WIAC schools), so for geographic reasons, that probably means Hope will host from the GL, along with Marietta. The Northeast should get three (Babson plus two NESCAC teams) but may deserve even more.  Maybe three from the Mid-Atlantic (Susquehanna, Salisbury, Christopher Newport), but only Rochester in the East, and only either Neumann or Ramapo in the Atlantic?

Remember, with no byes this year... anything is possible. I do not think the committee will allow Whitman and Whitworth BOTH to host and I don't think Whitworth will be allowed to be shipped elsewhere. However, there is a distinct chance that if only two Texas schools get in (assuming the SCAC champ is from Texas and not Colorado), they could BOTH be shipped somewhere else. You have to fly two teams to the Northwest, you have to fly the SCIAC champ somwhere, and you may be able to fly both Texas schools somewhere. And yes, there is a chance they park the two Texas schools for the same reason as the Northwest, though you STILL have to fly two teams to Texas, two teams to the NW, and the SCIAC team out. This actually makes for some interesting ideas... and I think last year showed the NCAA has loosened the purse strings a little and allowed for some more national feel. That's thanks to the Division III schools now paying more dues and a new contract with Turner/CBS bringing more money. I am not saying there will absolutely be more flights, but there is a better chance now than two or three years ago.

There's also a chance, if Rhodes hosts, that one of the Texas teams can drive there, which would pretty much guarantee them a host.  We're still probably going to get the SCIAC champ and someone from Texas at Whitman, but the other ASC/SCAC school has a lot more options this year.

Rhodes isn't ranked in the South Region, and with a record that's currently 13-10 it doesn't strike me as likely that the Lynx will be hosting anything in the D3 tourney. But both Memphis (the hometown of Rhodes) and Conway, AR (the hometown of SAA third-place Hendrix) are within the 500-mile limit of Longview, TX, home of LeTourneau. There are currently three Texas-based teams that are ranked in the South Region (#2 Concordia TX, #3 Hardin-Simmons, and #5 LeTourneau), so if either Rhodes or Hendrix wins the SAA's postseason tourney it's possible that there could be a self-contained (i.e., no flights necessary) pod based in Texas, as long as it's at LeTourneau.

That would simplify things greatly for the committee, as it could then give Whitman the pod-hosting privilege that the Blues deserve while only requiring two flights into Walla Walla -- one, naturally, being the SCIAC tourney champ and the other being whatever hapless team from elsewhere in the country gets potluck, probably one of the small army of NESCAC at-larges -- that would constitute the only two flights that the NCAA would have to pay for in the tourney's opening weekend.

[KnightSlappy]

That would simplify things greatly for the committee, as it could then give Whitman the pod-hosting privilege that the Blues deserve while only requiring two flights into Walla Walla -- one, naturally, being the SCIAC tourney champ and the other being whatever hapless team from elsewhere in the country gets potluck, probably one of the small army of NESCAC at-larges -- that would constitute the only two flights that the NCAA would have to pay for in the tourney's opening weekend.

It would be wonderful if the NCAA would approve an extra couple flights in this case to even out those two pods, otherwise they're pretty easily be the softest and toughest four-team groupings of the first weekend.

A NESCAC at-large would be unreasonable punishment for Whitman. If they're going to make them host a pod with Whitworth and CMS (who is probably better than their selection numbers indicate) they should get one of the lowest ranked Pool A teams to fly in.

Sending Whitworth to Texas and the ASC No. 2 to Walla Walla would make for a reasonable pods. But, alas, that would require four flights instead of two.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

That would simplify things greatly for the committee, as it could then give Whitman the pod-hosting privilege that the Blues deserve while only requiring two flights into Walla Walla -- one, naturally, being the SCIAC tourney champ and the other being whatever hapless team from elsewhere in the country gets potluck, probably one of the small army of NESCAC at-larges -- that would constitute the only two flights that the NCAA would have to pay for in the tourney's opening weekend.

It would be wonderful if the NCAA would approve an extra couple flights in this case to even out those two pods, otherwise they're pretty easily be the softest and toughest four-team groupings of the first weekend.

A NESCAC at-large would be unreasonable punishment for Whitman. If they're going to make them host a pod with Whitworth and CMS (who is probably better than their selection numbers indicate) they should get one of the lowest ranked Pool A teams to fly in.

Sending Whitworth to Texas and the ASC No. 2 to Walla Walla would make for a reasonable pods. But, alas, that would require four flights instead of two.

Remember... they don't have to send CMS to the Northwest. The women showed they can send the California schools elsewhere like Texaas. Two teams have to go to the Northwest... they can decided who they want with FAR more flexibility now. In the past, SCIAC teams to the Northwest made sense because of travel and whoever won Thursday had to get to a place easily Friday for a Saturday game... but with pods across the board... SCIAC team can go anywhere.

Per the Texas schools... if Hardin-Simmons or Concordia win... forget the idea of Rhodes being close enough - both are over 600 miles.

Per the idea of Rhodes hosting... they did this on the women's side a few years ago even though they weren't the higher of the four seeds (I want to say the third highest?). Getting a pod with driving partners was key and trumped seeding. I think now that we have a full bracket, sometimes the first weekend games may be forced to geographic locations more often than it has been in the past. Though, time will tell.

We know we are need teams to go to the Northwest. We may need two teams to go to Texas (depending on how the SCAC, basically, works out). There is a chance they ship the two Texas teams out, but with Concordia high on the regional ranking last week (very much subject to change), the idea of a Texas pod isn't that hard to imagine. That is four flights, period. One of them is going to be a SCIAC school. Maybe the committee can get creative outside of that.