Great Lakes Region

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

They don't have to fly the SCIAC to the NWC, but the men have been a little more conservative in their bracketing lately and not putting auto flight teams into pods with teams that won't have to fly anywhere.  Even if they're a lower seed and not likely to make it out of the weekend, I'm guessing, they'll still end up either in the NWC or Texas.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

They don't have to fly the SCIAC to the NWC, but the men have been a little more conservative in their bracketing lately and not putting auto flight teams into pods with teams that won't have to fly anywhere.  Even if they're a lower seed and not likely to make it out of the weekend, I'm guessing, they'll still end up either in the NWC or Texas.

If that is how the bracketing and the selections dictate. Don't forget, the women have shown an East Coast team flying to the Northwest not that long ago. Who makes the tournament and how the bracket comes together can make a lot of decisions change. Sure, the Northwest and Texas look obvious, but what if Rhodes makes it along with Hardin-Simmons and, though maybe crazy but certainly possible, Colorado College? None of those three seem to be in a position to host. Two won't... Rhodes, maybe? Makes things very, very interesting.

[Gregory Sager]

Sure, it's nice to get creative with the projected bracketing and assume four flights for the opening weekend. But that's a dangerous assumption. While, as Dave pointed out, it's true that D3 is contributing more to the NCAA's coffers by increasing membership dues, we can't ever forget that D3 is the NCAA division that holds out the beggar's bowl when it comes to championship tournament budgeting.

I'd love it if the committee had the green light from Indianapolis to go ahead and bracket for four opening-weekend flights. But I'm thinking in terms of the worst-case scenario, budgetwise, which is why I'm eyeing a possible move by Rhodes or Hendrix to a Texas pod -- especially when there's currently three Texas teams sitting fifth or above in the South Region rankings and it looks as though LeTourneau could be a viable host. (I can't see any justification whatsoever for holding an opening weekend in Memphis or Conway, given the unimpressive records put together by those two SAA squads and the fact that it really doesn't appear that it would be necessary at all. In fact, if need be you could bus either the Lynx or the Warriors to St. Louis, where Wash U looks like a very likely candidate to host a pod.) It's also why I'm figuring that the SCIAC rep will go north to the Evergreen State, given that the SCIAC rep will be all alone on an island and the Whitman-based pod is going to need a couple more teams besides the Blues and the Pirates.

A NESCAC at-large would be unreasonable punishment for Whitman. If they're going to make them host a pod with Whitworth and CMS (who is probably better than their selection numbers indicate) they should get one of the lowest ranked Pool A teams to fly in.

Good point. Southern Vermont, welcome to Walla Walla!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Sure, it's nice to get creative with the projected bracketing and assume four flights for the opening weekend. But that's a dangerous assumption. While, as Dave pointed out, it's true that D3 is contributing more to the NCAA's coffers by increasing membership dues, we can't ever forget that D3 is the NCAA division that holds out the beggar's bowl when it comes to championship tournament budgeting.

I'd love it if the committee had the green light from Indianapolis to go ahead and bracket for four opening-weekend flights. But I'm thinking in terms of the worst-case scenario, budgetwise, which is why I'm eyeing a possible move by Rhodes or Hendrix to a Texas pod -- especially when there's currently three Texas teams sitting fifth or above in the South Region rankings and it looks as though LeTourneau could be a viable host. (I can't see any justification whatsoever for holding an opening weekend in Memphis or Conway, given the unimpressive records put together by those two SAA squads and the fact that it really doesn't appear that it would be necessary at all. In fact, if need be you could bus either the Lynx or the Warriors to St. Louis, where Wash U looks like a very likely candidate to host a pod.) It's also why I'm figuring that the SCIAC rep will go north to the Evergreen State, given that the SCIAC rep will be all alone on an island and the Whitman-based pod is going to need a couple more teams besides the Blues and the Pirates.

A NESCAC at-large would be unreasonable punishment for Whitman. If they're going to make them host a pod with Whitworth and CMS (who is probably better than their selection numbers indicate) they should get one of the lowest ranked Pool A teams to fly in.

Good point. Southern Vermont, welcome to Walla Walla!

The only reason I suggested Rhodes is because it's a middle location between Texas and the MW/GL.  I only see them hosting if the other option is a flight to Texas for someone.  If they can do a four team no flight pod in Texas, I think you're right: they'll do it.

[HOPEful]

Hypothetical question...

If Mount Saint Joseph beats Hanover tonight, would Hope have to drop 2 of the next/last 4 to fall out of the #2 spot in the GL?

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Hypothetical question...

If Mount Saint Joseph beats Hanover tonight, would Hope have to drop 2 of the next/last 4 to fall out of the #2 spot in the GL?

I'd say no, since JCU (better SOS and better vs. RRO)has the potential to be very close to Hope as it is.  One loss by Hope would certainly move JCU in front.  I believe the only way Hope maintains a #2 ranking (and gets to host a pod) is to win their next 4 games

[HOPEful]

Hypothetical question...

If Mount Saint Joseph beats Hanover tonight, would Hope have to drop 2 of the next/last 4 to fall out of the #2 spot in the GL?

I'd say no, since JCU (better SOS and better vs. RRO)has the potential to be very close to Hope as it is.  One loss by Hope would certainly move JCU in front.  I believe the only way Hope maintains a #2 ranking (and gets to host a pod) is to win their next 4 games

They are 2-5 against RROs (Wins against Marietta and ONU, losses to Marietta, Mount St. Joe, Hanover, Hope, and ONU)

Hope is 2-1 (Wins against JCU and UW-River Falls, loss against Williams)

JCU was 5th in the region in last weeks regional rankings. I don't think they jump to 2nd without beating Marietta in the conference tournament.

If you compare the two side by side, I think the wins against Marietta and UWRF cancel each other out. Same for the bad losses to Muskingum and Wilkes. I don't know if the rest of their wins make up for twice as many losses, including the head to head game.

[sac]

Official

Rank   School   In-Region Record   Overall Record      
1   Marietta            19-4   19-4      
2   Hope            18-3   19-4      
3   Mt. St. Joseph    18-4   18-5      
4   Hanover            17-3   19-3      
5   John Carroll    16-6   16-6      
6   Wooster            16-7   16-7      
7   Denison            19-4   19-4      
8   Ohio Northern    15-8   15-8      
9   Ohio Wesleyan    17-6   17-6


A couple curious things
----Despite a loss, Mt. St. Joseph maintains the #3 spot over #4 Hanover   

----Despite OWU beating Wooster, they drop behind Denison and Ohio Northern, while Wooster maintains its spot.


data sheet link: http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank

RRO's are dumb and stupid

[KnightSlappy]

RRO's are dumb and stupid

Yes

But I don't think either of your curious observations has much to do with RROs, if that's what you were implying.

[sac]

RRO's are dumb and stupid

Yes

But I don't think either of your curious observations has much to do with RROs, if that's what you were implying.

No not in those cases.  But I think Denison moving up 2 spots was a case of RRO's giving them  the advantage over OWU, and ONU somehow staying ahead of OWU was also RRO related and possibly due to RRO%?.  Otherwise that must have been super close.

I also see other examples of RRO's in other regions.  And I'm really curious if others think RRO's Win% are actually being used over just the "results vs" we've been told about.  Perhaps there's more there than what I'm seeing, I do have an awful head cold.

[sac]

Hypothetical question...

If Mount Saint Joseph beats Hanover tonight, would Hope have to drop 2 of the next/last 4 to fall out of the #2 spot in the GL?

Whatever gap there is between Hope and Mt. St. Joe/Hanover is probably pretty small.    Hope can't gain anymore RRO's because of random line drawn in sand, but should Hanover, Mt. Joseph meet in the HCAC tournament they both pick up two more RRO games from this set of ranking data.

Hypothetically, MSJ beats Hanover twice, Hope wins out:

MSJ would be 4-0 vs RRO, Hope still 2-1 (assuming Williams remains ranked, JCU and River Falls should have no problem)  That might be enough for MSJ to make up for a .030 different in Win% and the current .010 SOS is going to close in MSJ's favor given the remaining games they have left.

[fantastic50]

----Despite OWU beating Wooster, they drop behind Denison and Ohio Northern, while Wooster maintains its spot.
RRO's are dumb and stupid

I wonder whether the vRROs did have an impact here.  If we look at the three NCAC teams (through Sunday), each split their regular-season series against the others.  I think that Wooster and Denison are each getting credit for another quality win, which OWU lacks, and Wooster is getting credited twice for SOS because of multiple nonconference losses against great teams.

Wooster 16-7(.696)/.544/3-5 (RPI .582)
Other RRO wins: St John Fisher (17-5, then East #2)
Other RRO losses: at Whitman (23-0, West #1), at Marietta (19-4, GL #1), vs Wash. U. (18-4, Central #2)
Other losses: at Hiram (10-13), at Lewis & Clark (9-11)

Denison 19-4(.826)/.463/3-2 (RPI .554)
Other RRO wins: at Ohio Northern (15-8, GL #8)
Other RRO losses: none
Other losses: vs Wittenberg (17-6)

Ohio Wesleyan 17-6(.739)/.506/2-4 (RPI .564)
Other RRO wins: none
Other RRO losses: vs Illinois Wesleyan (Central #7), neu. Wash. U. (18-4, Central #2)
Other losses: vs Capital (11-12), neu. Otterbein (7-16)

And for comparison, here's Ohio Northern (who split with both Marietta & John Carroll), both clearly better teams than the NCAC trio.
Ohio Northern 15-8(.652)/.546/2-3 (RPI .572)
Other RRO wins: none
Other RRO losses: vs Denison (19-4, then GL #9), vs UW-Whitewater (18-4, Central #3),
Other losses: at Alma (11-12), at Mount Union (13-10), at Transylvania (14-8), at Trine (11-11)

Because of the nonconference schedule, Wooster's SOS is .038 better than OWU's (more than enough to make up for one extra loss) and .078 better than Denison (more than compensating for three extra losses.)  These three split against each other, but Wooster and Denison each have another good win, while OWU doesn't, which might have made the difference.  I think that ONU's two key wins are the only thing keeping them ranked, given that their WP is well below .700.

Looking ahead, I think that the best anyone below JCU can do (without winning an AQ) is to get on the bubble.  Out of these other four, Wooster may have the best chance.  If they lose the NCAC final (likely beating Denison and losing at OWU in the process), they could be 20-8(.714), with a .550-ish SOS and 4-6 vRRO, which might be enough.  It's nearly impossible to get a Pool C berth with a sub-.500 SOS, and Denison would be in that position with five losses.  OWU has a .500-ish SOS, but with 7 losses, I don't see that happening either.  ONU (by winning out to reach the OAC final) could have an SOS in the .560-.570 range and four high-quality wins (Marietta and JCU twice each), but 19-9(.679) is likely one loss too many; 20-8 probably would have done it for them.  Any of those teams that can win out except the conference final probably gets to the table, but may be left wondering what might have been if they had won just one more game somewhere along the way. 

It seems to me that the RRAC eventually will need to pick the one team out of this group with the best Pool C resume (as the #6 team in the region) and the ordering below that won't matter.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Keep in mind... the RACs and the national committee are looking at FAR more than just primary criteria. We have heard them talk about diving into the numbers as best they can and as deep as they are allowed to make a decision. These decisions doesn't necessarily come down to SOS comparison, WL% comparision, and especially vRRO comparisions. And vRRO analysis could mean dozens of different data points to work from.

[sac]

Hanover has a decent chance of being placed ahead of Hope next week with 4 RRO's to 3 and similar W% and SOS.   Even better chance if they win out and beat  MSJ in the HCAC finals.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Keep in mind... the RACs and the national committee are looking at FAR more than just primary criteria. We have heard them talk about diving into the numbers as best they can and as deep as they are allowed to make a decision. These decisions doesn't necessarily come down to SOS comparison, WL% comparision, and especially vRRO comparisions. And vRRO analysis could mean dozens of different data points to work from.

Dave . . . I am operating under the assumption that barring an uncharacteristic amount of AQ upsets in the conference tournaments (especially in the GL) that JCU, with a win on Saturday, will have a very strong resume and will likely make the tournament regardless of OAC tournament performance.  I just think that they will be on the board for quite a while and will eventually be selected.  Thoughts?  Too optimistic.