Great Lakes Region

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Keep in mind... the RACs and the national committee are looking at FAR more than just primary criteria. We have heard them talk about diving into the numbers as best they can and as deep as they are allowed to make a decision. These decisions doesn't necessarily come down to SOS comparison, WL% comparision, and especially vRRO comparisions. And vRRO analysis could mean dozens of different data points to work from.

Dave . . . I am operating under the assumption that barring an uncharacteristic amount of AQ upsets in the conference tournaments (especially in the GL) that JCU, with a win on Saturday, will have a very strong resume and will likely make the tournament regardless of OAC tournament performance.  I just think that they will be on the board for quite a while and will eventually be selected.  Thoughts?  Too optimistic.

John Carroll is right on my bubble line. I think by getting to their OAC title game they help themselves a ton. I think the SOS has been helping them, but the committee isn't staring at the number and making decisions based on it... they are diving into it more and as we have seen, it hasn't been a huge help for JCU as of yet. So yeah, I think if they are there in the OAC title game they have done what they can to better themselves and they will get to the table. The question becomes if MSJ or Hanover are there ahead of them and block them for awhile first.

And being at the table a long time doesn't necessarily mean a team will be selected. Teams from the Atlantic, especially, and East regions have sat at the table the entire 19 picks (in the past; 21 this year) and not been selected. There isn't any truth to "at the table a long time betters their chances of being picked." Sadly, I think the opposite can run true.

But yeah... JCU I think has a chance at an at large... but as you said, let's see how many upsets take place.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Keep in mind... the RACs and the national committee are looking at FAR more than just primary criteria. We have heard them talk about diving into the numbers as best they can and as deep as they are allowed to make a decision. These decisions doesn't necessarily come down to SOS comparison, WL% comparision, and especially vRRO comparisions. And vRRO analysis could mean dozens of different data points to work from.

Dave . . . I am operating under the assumption that barring an uncharacteristic amount of AQ upsets in the conference tournaments (especially in the GL) that JCU, with a win on Saturday, will have a very strong resume and will likely make the tournament regardless of OAC tournament performance.  I just think that they will be on the board for quite a while and will eventually be selected.  Thoughts?  Too optimistic.

John Carroll is right on my bubble line. I think by getting to their OAC title game they help themselves a ton. I think the SOS has been helping them, but the committee isn't staring at the number and making decisions based on it... they are diving into it more and as we have seen, it hasn't been a huge help for JCU as of yet. So yeah, I think if they are there in the OAC title game they have done what they can to better themselves and they will get to the table. The question becomes if MSJ or Hanover are there ahead of them and block them for awhile first.

And being at the table a long time doesn't necessarily mean a team will be selected. Teams from the Atlantic, especially, and East regions have sat at the table the entire 19 picks (in the past; 21 this year) and not been selected. There isn't any truth to "at the table a long time betters their chances of being picked." Sadly, I think the opposite can run true.

But yeah... JCU I think has a chance at an at large... but as you said, let's see how many upsets take place.

Thank you for your thoughts.  I did not mean to indicate that I thought being at the table for a long time would be a good thing.  I more meant that it is my belief that JCU will not find itself buried in the Great Lakes rankings and never make it to the table for consideration.   You make a good point about Hanover and MSJ but, again, I do not predict that happening.  Too many conference tourney upsets and it could be an early off season if JCU does not take care of business but I like their chances.   I think a win in the next two games for JCU (regular season finale and conference quarters) and all will be well.  Your scenario - three more wins and an appearance in the title game) is the safer route, of course. 

Of course, the safest route is to simply win that tournament next Saturday but I have not seen us do that very many times.  As good as we have been since we joined the OAC in 1989, we have only won 4 tournament titles and we made the finals and lost 4 other times.  In that same span we have won 10 regular season titles and advanced to the tournament  12 times (2 more came while a member of the PAC for a total of 14 appearances) so at-large has been our path most times.

[sac]

Last Week's poll     
1   Marietta           19-4      19-4
2   Hope            18-3   19-4     
3   Mt. St. Joseph    18-4   18-5     
4   Hanover            17-3   19-3     
5   John Carroll    16-6   16-6     
6   Wooster            16-7   16-7     
7   Denison            19-4   19-4     
8   Ohio Northern    15-8   15-8     
9   Ohio Wesleyan    17-6   17-6


Seem to be 3 big things about Wed's poll.

What order to you place Hope, Hanover, Mt. St. Joseph?
Hanover      20-3        .864/.522/2-2
Hope           19-4        .826/.521/2-1
Mt. St. Joe   17-4        .792/.510/2-1

Does Wooster move ahead of John Carroll?

John Carroll  17-7     .704/.568/2-5
Wooster       18-7     .720/.536/3-5


Does 9 loss Ohio Northern remain in the poll at all?  Keeping in mind there is no team with an SOS above .500 in position to be ranked.
Ohio Northern    16-9          .640/.550/2-4

[KnightSlappy]

Without diving into common opponents or anything I think Hanover jumps to No. 2 ahead of Hope and MSJ.

I think MSJ stays ahead of John Carroll and Wooster by the slimest of margins though I could see these three ranked in just about any order.

[Fifth and Putnam]

I'd go:

1. Marietta (have to be a lock for hosting right? I can't see any scenario where they fall past #2 at this point.)
2. Hanover
3. Hope
4. MSJ
5. JCU
6. Wooster (JCU and Wooster are really tight..I leaned towards JCU's better SOS but it could go either way here.)
7. Denison
8. OWU
9. ONU

The order of JCU and Wooster is important because by that point we'd be getting to the end of what I believe is the Pool C chances for the region. Which of them gets to the table first could mean being in or out.

[HOPEful]

What do the numbers look like if Hope were to win the MIAA tournament and Hanover were to lose in their final to MSJ or Anderson?

[sac]

What do the numbers look like if Hope were to win the MIAA tournament and Hanover were to lose in their final to MSJ or Anderson?

It was my feeling heading into yesterday that even with a Hope win over Calvin and winning out, Hanover had a chance to catch Hope in the criteria if they also won out.  With Hope losing yesterday I'm not sure Hanover can fall back enough for Hope to catch them unless they lost in the QF.  It will probably be very, very close though. 

[Fifth and Putnam]

What do the numbers look like if Hope were to win the MIAA tournament and Hanover were to lose in their final to MSJ or Anderson?

It was my feeling heading into yesterday that even with a Hope win over Calvin and winning out, Hanover had a chance to catch Hope in the criteria if they also won out.  With Hope losing yesterday I'm not sure Hanover can fall back enough for Hope to catch them unless they lost in the QF.  It will probably be very, very close though.

I don't believe the HCAC has quarterfinals...only 6 teams make the tournament for the HCAC. Hanover would have a bye to the semis.

[Fifth and Putnam]

John Carroll falls to Muskingum on a final second 3-pointer. That probably ends their season. Ohio Northern is likely gone as well as they fall in the OAC quarterfinals as well.

In the NCAC, the top 4 seeds advance. Wooster, Denison, OWU, and Wittenberg all win.

[sac]

Official (does not include last nights results)

GREAT LAKES                     
Rank   School   In-Region Record   Overall Record            
1   Marietta                    21-4   21-4            
2   Hanover                    19-3   21-3            
3   Hope                    19-4   20-5            
4   Mt. St. Joseph            19-5   19-6            
5   Wooster                    18-7   18-7            
6   John Carroll            17-7   17-7            
7   Denison                    21-4   21-4            
8   Ohio Wesleyan     19-6   19-6            
9   Ohio Northern            16-9   16-9

All the regions  http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

[HOPEful]

Official (does not include last nights results)

GREAT LAKES                     
Rank   School   In-Region Record   Overall Record            
1   Marietta                    21-4   21-4            
2   Hanover                    19-3   21-3            
3   Hope                    19-4   20-5            
4   Mt. St. Joseph            19-5   19-6            
5   Wooster                    18-7   18-7            
6   John Carroll            17-7   17-7            
7   Denison                    21-4   21-4            
8   Ohio Wesleyan     19-6   19-6            
9   Ohio Northern            16-9   16-9

All the regions  http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

I think we can cement Marietta in as the 1. I think the same can be said of Hanover and the 2 if they win the HCAC tournament.

Hanover - W% - .864, SOS - .523
Hope - W% - .826, SOS - .519

I think it would be a real tough decision between Hanover and Hope if Hope were to win the MIAA tournament and Hanover were to lose to Mt. St. Joe or Anderson in the HCAC final. I would lean towards Hope as the tournament champion and by way of their RRO win against UW-River Falls, but I'm also very biased. 

Not to put the cart before the horse, both teams could struggle in their semi-final match-ups. Alma played Hope tough both times they met this year and Hope hasn't really wowed anyone with their play since the game @ calvin. And if Transylvania can get past Rose-Hulman, they lost at Hanover on a buzzer beating layup and at Transylvania, the Pioneers held a 1 point lead over Hanover with 5 seconds to go when Cam Fails hit a jumper to once again give the Panthers the win.

[sac]

Official (does not include last nights results)

GREAT LAKES                     
Rank   School   In-Region Record   Overall Record            
1   Marietta                    21-4   21-4            
2   Hanover                    19-3   21-3            
3   Hope                    19-4   20-5            
4   Mt. St. Joseph            19-5   19-6            
5   Wooster                    18-7   18-7            
6   John Carroll            17-7   17-7            
7   Denison                    21-4   21-4            
8   Ohio Wesleyan     19-6   19-6            
9   Ohio Northern            16-9   16-9

All the regions  http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

I think we can cement Marietta in as the 1. I think the same can be said of Hanover and the 2 if they win the HCAC tournament.

Hanover - W% - .864, SOS - .523
Hope - W% - .826, SOS - .519

I think it would be a real tough decision between Hanover and Hope if Hope were to win the MIAA tournament and Hanover were to lose to Mt. St. Joe or Anderson in the HCAC final. I would lean towards Hope as the tournament champion and by way of their RRO win against UW-River Falls, but I'm also very biased. 

Not to put the cart before the horse, both teams could struggle in their semi-final match-ups. Alma played Hope tough both times they met this year and Hope hasn't really wowed anyone with their play since the game @ calvin. And if Transylvania can get past Rose-Hulman, they lost at Hanover on a buzzer beating layup and at Transylvania, the Pioneers held a 1 point lead over Hanover with 5 seconds to go when Cam Fails hit a jumper to once again give the Panthers the win.

Hope's SOS should in theory sink more than Hanover this week since Hanover will be playing at least one, possibly two teams with better records than Hope might play this weekend.  Very hard for Hope to close that small SOS gap, plus Hanover will pick up another RRO if they play Mt. St. Joseph.  Even if Hanover loses the criteria probably still leans towards them being #2.

[fantastic50]

Here's what I'm thinking on the region:

1) Marietta (22-4, 0.576, 4-4 vRRO) lock & will host
2) Hanover (19-3, 0.520, 2-2 vRRO) near-lock & should host if HCAC champ
3) Hope (19-4, 0.520, 2-1 vRRO) likely in even if MIAA semi loss, may host if champ & Hanover loses
4) Mt St Joseph (18-5, 0.508, 2-1 vRRO) likely in if HCAC final, but bubble with semi loss
5) Wooster (19-7, 0.535, 3-5 vRRO) likely in if NCAC final, but doubtful with semi loss
6) John Carroll (17-8, 0.560, 2-5) not a contender after OAC quarterfinal loss
7) Denison (22-4, 0.466, 3-2 vRRO) bubble if NCAC final, but doubtful with semi loss
8) Ohio Wesleyan (20-6, 0.502, 2-3 vRRO) probably needs to win NCAC tournament
9) Ohio Northern (16-10, 0.549, 2-4) not a contender after OAC quarterfinal loss

[HOPEful]

Hope's SOS should in theory sink more than Hanover this week since Hanover will be playing at least one, possibly two teams with better records than Hope might play this weekend.  Very hard for Hope to close that small SOS gap, plus Hanover will pick up another RRO if they play Mt. St. Joseph.  Even if Hanover loses the criteria probably still leans towards them being #2.

I think the SOS difference will be too close to call on that alone.

The 5 primary criteria are:

Win% - which would be pretty much equal

SOS - Hanover will have the better SOS, but not by a ton. If the committee thinks the difference is enough and stops here, Hanover is the 2 seed.

RRO - What's better (2-1) or (2-3)? Picking up another RRO isn't necessarily a good thing if you don't win, right? Plus, if Hanover lost again to MSJ, they'd be 1-2 against the Lions.  Take away the two, maybe three games against Mount St. Joseph, and they're RRO record is (1-1), with the 1 win coming against a John Carroll team that Hope beat at John Carroll. We have been told many times that not all RROs are equal. Hanover getting crushed by Washington and Hope beating UW-River Falls @ Stout... and I would think RROs is a category Hope is beating Hanover in...

Head-to-head - N/A

Results vs common D3 opponents - John Carroll and Alma. Not much to gather here assuming Hope wins Friday night...

Of course, it's all a moot point if Hanover takes care of business on their home court this weekend...

[sac]

The final GL poll should look something like this with AQ's in Bold

1. Marietta
2.  Hanover
3.  Hope
4.  MSJ
5.  Wooster  ---may end up #4, with MSJ #5
6.  JCU
7.  Ohio Wes.
8.  Denison
9.  Thomas More/Ohio No

The 9th ranking slot is mostly moot for Pool C discussion,  ONU maintains the RRO's for Marietta and JCU, Thomas More would be neutral but weaken JCU's RRO's.

For Pool C purposes, depending on the Hanover/MSJ result this afternoon your Pool C order should be Hanover-Hope-JCU if Hanover loses or Hope-MSJ-JCU with the slight chance that its Hope-JCU-MSJ if MSJ loses.

Hanover-Hope-JCU  scenario
Hanover and Hope should be in without a lot of sweat
JCU will be on the table for discussion for multiple rounds, if selected it would be one of the last rounds.  More likely they are out. 

Hope-MSJ-JCU
Hope should be in, it gets dicey for MSJ with a not great SOS but they should get selected in one of Pool C's late rounds without a lot of upsets.  Like the first scenario JCU will be at the table and may not get selected.

Hope-JCU-MSJ
Hope should be in.  JCU may or not be selected, MSJ could be stuck behind JCU and never be discussed or make the table very late.
With JCU losing in the QF of the OAC and MSJ advancing to the HCAC final I think this ranking scenario is very unlikely

Ohio Wesleyan is probably only going to make the final table if JCU is selected, but it unlikely OWU's criteria will be good enough for selection.
Denison will be ranked behind OWU and never make the table for Pool C