Great Lakes Region

[KnightSlappy]

Maybe body of work might come into play a bit?  Wooster has played 8 more regional games than both Hope and Calvin and only has one more loss while having a whopping 7 more wins.  And the majority of Hope's and Calvin's regional opponents are also conference opponents.  Not so for the others in the regional rankings.  And that SOS you're referring to has only been bolstered by the fact that Calvin and Hope have played each other 3 times?!  Of their miniscule 10 regional games each has played, 3 of those 10 have been against each other which totally pads the stats from a SOS perspective IMO.  Maybe the NCAA is taking note of that?

Besides, Calvin's loss tonight should put an end to them being in the discussion for now...

I don't understand how playing the same team is considered "padding the stats." They still have to play the game, right? That's three games against a tough team.

[KnightSlappy]

Looks like the committee isn't counting Olivet's win over Finlandia as in-region.

[sac]

Maybe body of work might come into play a bit?  Wooster has played 8 more regional games than both Hope and Calvin and only has one more loss while having a whopping 7 more wins.  And the majority of Hope's and Calvin's regional opponents are also conference opponents.  Not so for the others in the regional rankings.  And that SOS you're referring to has only been bolstered by the fact that Calvin and Hope have played each other 3 times?!  Of their miniscule 10 regional games each has played, 3 of those 10 have been against each other which totally pads the stats from a SOS perspective IMO.  Maybe the NCAA is taking note of that?

Besides, Calvin's loss tonight should put an end to them being in the discussion for now...

Which is totally wiped out by playing winless Alma 2 times (3 for the unfortunate champion)

[ChicagoHopeNut]

Maybe body of work might come into play a bit?  Wooster has played 8 more regional games than both Hope and Calvin and only has one more loss while having a whopping 7 more wins.  And the majority of Hope's and Calvin's regional opponents are also conference opponents.  Not so for the others in the regional rankings.  And that SOS you're referring to has only been bolstered by the fact that Calvin and Hope have played each other 3 times?!  Of their miniscule 10 regional games each has played, 3 of those 10 have been against each other which totally pads the stats from a SOS perspective IMO.  Maybe the NCAA is taking note of that?

Besides, Calvin's loss tonight should put an end to them being in the discussion for now...

Which is totally wiped out by playing winless Alma 2 times (3 for the unfortunate champion)

Exactly. I feel if anything Hope and Calvin should get a pity vote for having Alma destroy their record.  Of course winning the MIAA tourney and getting an automatic bid is the goal but avoiding playing Alma in the first round of the MIAA tourney would be nice too. Either Hope or Calvin will get stuck playing Alma three times and be left with a 0-51 record for SOS just from Alma.

[David Collinge]

Keep in mind that the regional committee (who do the regional rankings) and the national committee (who select the Pool Cs) are not the same folks, and they may have entirely different ways of looking at the data.  Also keep in mind how the Pool C process works: one team per region under consideration at any one time, in order of the regional rankings.  If the national committee runs the numbers in a KnightSlappy sort of way, it won't matter how much they like Hope or Calvin or Behrend or whoever; nobody gets a Pool C bid before Wooster if they are #1 on the list.  Upshot: everyone in the GL with a Pool C hope had better pray that Wooster wins their conference tournament. 

(Of course, Wooster won't be the GL#1 if they don't win the NCAC tournament, but still...)

[sac]

#4 Calvin and #5 PSU-Behrend took losses tonight.

[ScotsFan]

Maybe if poor Hope and Calvin had MORE regional games, their numbers wouldn't take such a hit everytime they play winless Alma. 

And it's not like Wooster is scoring big points having to play the EC with their whopping 3 wins twice or Kenyon and their impressive 4 wins twice.  And Trust me.  Oberlin has been Wooster's Alma plenty of times over the years so you're not going to get any sympathy votes from me... 

[KnightSlappy]

I spent most of the night "in the basement" working on my calculations. I made a few tweaks to try to line up with the regional rankings better. I tweaked the way OWP and OOWP is calculate to match the numbers reported by the committee, and I also added in an RPI50 column. I'm now using this (a 50-50 WP to SOS ratio) to calculate rank and Pool C position.

Here's how it looks with Wednesday's games added in:

REG   #   WP      OWP     OOWP    SOS     RPI50   RPI     NAT   Pool        REG     OVR   CONF     Team
GL   01   0.842   0.488   0.510   0.496   0.669   0.582   027   A   C      16-3    16-4   NCAC     Wooster
GL   02   0.818   0.521   0.509   0.517   0.668   0.592   029   A   C       9-2    14-6   MIAA     Hope
GL   03   0.778   0.503   0.530   0.512   0.645   0.578   042   A   C      14-4    15-5   OAC      Wilmington
GL   04   0.727   0.564   0.488   0.538   0.633   0.586   056   C   022     8-3    12-8   MIAA     Calvin
GL   05   0.765   0.491   0.495   0.492   0.629   0.560   062   C   027    13-4    13-5   AMCC     Penn State-Behrend
GL   06   0.706   0.563   0.509   0.545   0.625   0.585   066   C   030    12-5    14-5   OAC      John Carroll
GL   07   0.750   0.478   0.505   0.487   0.618   0.553   073   A          15-5    15-5   PrAC     Thomas More
GL   08   0.737   0.440   0.500   0.460   0.598   0.529   094   C   055    14-5    14-6   PrAC     Bethany
GL   09   0.688   0.506   0.495   0.503   0.595   0.549   096   C   057    11-5    15-5   NCAC     Wittenberg
                                          
      Pool:   A   Top ranked team in Pool A eligible conference                              
         B   Pool B eligible team                              
         C   At large candidate                              
         N/A   Not eligible for postseason participation                              
                                          
      B or C #      Rank in Pool (C or B)                              
                                          
      A Status:   C   Pool A candidate, would rank within top 19 of Pool C                               
         C-2   2nd tier Pool A candidate, would rank 20-29 of Pool C                               
         Blank   Ranks outside of the top 29 of Pool C                              
                                          
      RPI50:   50% WP and 50% SOS                                 
      RPI:   25% WP and 75% SOS                                 
                                          
      Updated:   2/4/2010                     


This new 50-50 ratio seemed to do a better job across the regions in ranking teams (though I stupidly updated to include games through Wednesday before I fully checked it out).

If this is more like what the selection committee will look at, the GL's Pool C chances may not be as bad as we originally thought. Even with the loss last night, it still has Calvin as #22 in Pool C.

[sac]

Maybe if poor Hope and Calvin had MORE regional games, their numbers wouldn't take such a hit everytime they play winless Alma. 

And it's not like Wooster is scoring big points having to play the EC with their whopping 3 wins twice or Kenyon and their impressive 4 wins twice.  And Trust me.  Oberlin has been Wooster's Alma plenty of times over the years so you're not going to get any sympathy votes from me... 

I'm not going to rehash how difficult it is for Hope and Calvin to get regional games........we've been over it a billion times.  You Ohio schools have it good and easy.......you've got 4 more regional games built in to your schedules by being in a bigger conference, and every OAC school is closer to you than any OAC or NCAC school is for the MIAA.  You simply have more and easier options.

When the season is over, Hope and Calvin will either have 18 or 19 in-region games, thats fine.

[ziggy]

Maybe if poor Hope and Calvin had MORE regional games, their numbers wouldn't take such a hit everytime they play winless Alma.  

And it's not like Wooster is scoring big points having to play the EC with their whopping 3 wins twice or Kenyon and their impressive 4 wins twice.  And Trust me.  Oberlin has been Wooster's Alma plenty of times over the years so you're not going to get any sympathy votes from me...  

I'm not going to rehash how difficult it is for Hope and Calvin to get regional games........we've been over it a billion times.  You Ohio schools have it good and easy.......you've got 4 more regional games built in to your schedules by being in a bigger conference, and every OAC school is closer to you than any OAC or NCAC school is for the MIAA.  You simply have more and easier options.

When the season is over, Hope and Calvin will either have 18 or 19 in-region games, thats fine.

I have the solution, follow me with this one:
-The Asian Carp invasion of Lake Michigan creates such havoc that the government decides to just fill the whole thing with dirt and concrete.
-New highway systems are built linking Western Michigan and Chicago/Wisconsin thereby opening up a plethora of additional schools to fall within the 200 mile travel distance.
-Already annual games with Wheaton and Carthage become in region for Calvin. Hope gains the additional regional game with Carthage.

[realist]

How many of the HCAC schools in IN are within the 200 mile rule for Calvin or Hope?

[wally_wabash]

How many of the HCAC schools in IN are within the 200 mile rule for Calvin or Hope?

I think just Anderson and Manchester...however, if it's regional games you're looking for, any school in Indiana would count as Indiana and Michigan are in the same administrative region. 

[KnightSlappy]

How many of the HCAC schools in IN are within the 200 mile rule for Calvin or Hope?

All of Indiana is in-region for MIAA schools due to the fact that Michigan and Indiana are in the same administrative region.

Region 3: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia.

Good to see that Calvin can schedule all of those Puerto Rico schools for regional contests but Wheaton doesn't count...

[Mr. Ypsi]

How many of the HCAC schools in IN are within the 200 mile rule for Calvin or Hope?

All of Indiana is in-region for MIAA schools due to the fact that Michigan and Indiana are in the same administrative region.

Region 3: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia.

Good to see that Calvin can schedule all of those Puerto Rico schools for regional contests but Wheaton doesn't count...

Yeah, those arbitrary cut-off points can make for some weirdness.  To turn it around, Wheaton could play in-region games against Hawaii or Alaska schools (if any existed in d3! ), but Calvin doesn't count!

[sac]

How many of the HCAC schools in IN are within the 200 mile rule for Calvin or Hope?

I think just Anderson and Manchester...however, if it's regional games you're looking for, any school in Indiana would count as Indiana and Michigan are in the same administrative region. 

Only Manchester, Anderson is 230 miles + from Holland, further from Grand Rapids.