Great Lakes Region

realist · February 08, 2010, 11:41:52 AM

Quote from: northb on February 06, 2010, 01:03:17 PM
Quote from: realist on February 06, 2010, 11:09:34 AM
Sorry about the dustup. I forgot about the administrative region aspect, and knew the status of Defiance.
I have always thought that the state borders concept was highly arbitarary. If the goal is to help establish larger "in region" areas for teams my thought is why not use a different base criteria for who is "in region" for each school. Simply say the nearest 75 or 100 D3 schools to your school (by road miles) are your "in region" eligible opponents.
Using this method every school falls under the same standard, and arcane boundaries do not exist.
One concern is that a game might be in-region for one school, but not for the other!

When I came up with this great idea it was an attempt to assist schools in sparsely (D3) populated areas come up with viable "in region"opponents. At the same time I did not want to punish a school in a highly (D3) populated area. My thought was, for example, if Wheaton were one of the closest 75 or 100 for Calviin.but the opposite were not true it would count as "in region" for both. With todays computer mapping capability it is not that burdensome a task to determine which schools would be "in region" eleigible for any school. Wheaton looks at Calvin's map to determine if they are "in region" or not. Perhaps an easier way to say this is anyone who is "in region" for one of two schools it is automatically "in region" for the other. Granted I did a poor job communicating how my plan might work.

KnightSlappy · February 08, 2010, 11:56:28 AM

Quote from: ScotsFan on February 08, 2010, 11:30:13 AM
I agree about Wooster being pretty safe for a Pool C at this point. I also don't see what would cause Hope to jump Wooster in this week's GL rankings? Hope's wins were against winless Alma and Olivet who is now under .500 in-region record wise, while both of Wooster's wins came against teams with over .500 in-region records. In fact, Wabash had an in region win percentage of over .700 before their loss to Wooster yesterday dropped them back to .680. Hardly reason for the ranking committee to make a change at the top if you ask me.

The question I have would be, is the OAC going to have a case for a Pool C candidate?

If both JCU and Wilma win out in their 4 remaining regular season games, they should both be in a pretty strong position to vie for a Pool C bid coming out of the GL I would think. Granted, that is a big if, but both are capable of winning out and by doing so, I think would come really close to passing Calvin and maybe even Hope because of the tougher opponents in the OAC they face coming down the stretch.

Not that Hope will pass them this week or anything, but since Hope has played fewer regional games, each win boosts their WP faster than Wooster's gets boosted. Last week Wooster had a 0.33 advantage in WP, this week it's only 0.17. Plus Hope's schedule still looks tougher (though that has closed in Wooster's favor this week), and I still feel Hope has the advantage with a win over common opponent Albion and they're 2-1 vs. likely still ranked Calvin.

Like I said, it may not happen this week or even at all, but I can see a scenario in which Wooster and Hope both keep winning, but Hope passing Wooster in the rankings. It may not matter in the end though; what are the chances that both these schools are looking for Pool C? Something in the 10% range?

ScotsFan · February 08, 2010, 12:38:15 PM

Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 08, 2010, 11:56:28 AM
It may not matter in the end though; what are the chances that both these schools are looking for Pool C? Something in the 10% range?

You're probably right. I'm just speaking from the perspective of gaining the top seed coming out of the GL more than anything WRT Wooster. If the Scots win out, I feel pretty strong that they should maintain their #1 ranking in the GL Region. If they happen to get tripped up along the way, their possiblities of a top seed will take a serious hit.

If only the Scots could have beaten the Brits back on opening day they would have a pretty comfortable lead in-region right now. But because of that loss, they now have zero room for error...

KnightSlappy · February 08, 2010, 12:51:51 PM

Quote from: ScotsFan on February 08, 2010, 12:38:15 PM
If the Scots win out, I feel pretty strong that they should maintain their #1 ranking in the GL Region.

If the Dutchmen also win out, they'll end up with a better WP than Wooster. I don't think anyone in Holland is counting on them to win out, but it is possible.

ChicagoHopeNut · February 10, 2010, 04:07:02 PM

The new regional rankings are out.

Great Lakes Region    In-Region Record    Overall Record
1. Wooster      17-3      17-4
2. Hope      10-2      15-6
3. John Carroll      13-5      15-5
4. Thomas More      16-5      16-5
5. Wilmington (Ohio) 14-5      15-6
6. Calvin      9-3      13-8

ChicagoHopeNut · February 10, 2010, 04:10:37 PM

After a quick glance at all the regions I noticed that Hope and Calvin at 12 in-region games have 2 in-region games fewer than every other ranked team across the country. And even then there is a single team, Randolph-Macon, with just 14 games. Maryville (TN) has 15.

Most teams are up at the 16-20 range.

KnightSlappy · February 10, 2010, 04:59:15 PM

I'm very confused as to how Wilmington is ranked higher than Calvin.

According to my data:
- Calvin has a better WP
- Calvin has a tougher SOS
- They are both 1-0 vs. Ohio Northern (the only common opponent)
- They are both 1-2 vs. in-region regionally ranked teams. Calvin is 1-2 vs. #2 Hope and Wilmington is 1-1 vs. #3 JCU and 0-1 vs. #4 Thomas More.
- They have not played head to head

I know it's probably close, but doesn't Calvin look better based on the criteria? (number of wins and loses is NOT a listed criteria)

Maybe the committee still has Olivet's record wrong which hurts Calvin's SOS?

ziggy · February 11, 2010, 10:10:48 PM

Quote from: ChicagoHopeNut on February 10, 2010, 04:07:02 PM
The new regional rankings are out.

Great Lakes Region    In-Region Record    Overall Record
1. Wooster      17-3      17-4
2. Hope      10-2      15-6
3. John Carroll      13-5      15-5
4. Thomas More      16-5      16-5
5. Wilmington (Ohio) 14-5      15-6
6. Calvin      9-3      13-8

So far this week:
-Wooster, Hope, John Carroll and Calvin got the wins they need for positioning.
-Thomas More also won but will take another hit on their already suspect OWP and SOS with their victory over Waynesburg. The Saints will have trouble holding off other teams that keep on winning; their upside potential is limited as far as the regional rankings go.
-Wilmington lost to Ohio Northern. That makes five losses in their last eight games, their stock is clearly falling.

KnightSlappy · February 12, 2010, 11:52:42 AM

Here's what the region looks like through Thursday's games.

REG   #   WP     OWP    OOWP    SOS    RPI50   RPI    NAT   Pool        REG     OVR   CONF    Team
GL   01   0.857   0.514   0.501   0.510   0.684   0.597   019   A   C     18-3    18-4   NCAC    Wooster
GL   02   0.846   0.510   0.508   0.509   0.678   0.594   023   A   C     11-2    16-6   MIAA    Hope
GL   03   0.769   0.567   0.484   0.539   0.654   0.597   037   C   011    10-3    14-8   MIAA    Calvin
GL   04   0.737   0.555   0.513   0.541   0.639   0.590   048   A   C     14-5    16-5   OAC     John Carroll
GL   05   0.773   0.459   0.508   0.475   0.624   0.549   063   A   C-2    17-5    17-5   PrAC    Thomas More
GL   06   0.737   0.504   0.490   0.499   0.618   0.558   068   C   030    14-5    14-6   AMCC    Penn State-Behrend
GL   07   0.700   0.527   0.526   0.527   0.613   0.570   073   C   035    14-6    15-7   OAC     Wilmington
GL   08   0.722   0.495   0.472   0.488   0.605   0.546   079   C   041    13-5    17-5   NCAC    Wittenberg
GL   09   0.700   0.464   0.496   0.474   0.587   0.531   097   C   056    14-6    14-7   NCAC    Wabash

Pool:   A    Top ranked team in Pool A eligible conference
    B    Pool B eligible team
    C    At large candidate
    N/A   Not eligible for postseason participation

B or C #      Rank in Pool (C or B)

A Status:      C    Pool A candidate, would rank within top 19 of Pool C
       C-2    2nd tier Pool A candidate, would rank 20-29 of Pool C
       Blank   Ranks outside of the top 29 of Pool C

RPI50:   50% WP and 50% SOS
RPI:    25% WP and 75% SOS

Updated:      2/12/2010

Kudos to Wooster on bringing that SOS number up big time in the recent weeks.

Another win for Calvin should allow them to jump ahead of Thomas More in next week's ranking. Their WPs would be very similar, but Calvin's SOS is numerically in the top 85% of schedules around the country. Thomas More's SOS is closer to the 25th percentile... ouch.

KnightSlappy · February 15, 2010, 10:11:43 AM

Here's the GL Region data through Sunday's games (2-14-2010):

REG   #   WP     OWP    OOWP    SOS    RPI50   RPI    NAT   Pool        REG     OVR   CONF    Team
GL   01   0.857   0.527   0.497   0.517   0.687   0.602   018   A   C     12-2    17-6   MIAA    Hope
GL   02   0.818   0.530   0.496   0.519   0.668   0.594   025   A   C     18-4    18-5   NCAC    Wooster
GL   03   0.786   0.540   0.485   0.522   0.654   0.588   037   C   011    11-3    15-8   MIAA    Calvin
GL   04   0.737   0.547   0.510   0.535   0.636   0.585   047   A   C     14-5    17-5   OAC     John Carroll
GL   05   0.737   0.509   0.467   0.495   0.616   0.556   066   C   029    14-5    18-5   NCAC    Wittenberg
GL   06   0.700   0.523   0.520   0.522   0.611   0.567   074   C   037    14-6    16-7   OAC     Wilmington
GL   07   0.739   0.470   0.503   0.481   0.610   0.546   076   A          17-6    17-6   PrAC    Thomas More
GL   08   0.700   0.511   0.493   0.505   0.603   0.554   082   C   043    14-6    14-7   AMCC    Penn State-Behrend
GL   09   0.714   0.466   0.491   0.474   0.594   0.534   088   C   048    15-6    15-7   PrAC    Bethany

Pool:   A    Top ranked team in Pool A eligible conference
    B    Pool B eligible team
    C    At large candidate
    N/A   Not eligible for postseason participation

B or C #      Rank in Pool (C or B)

A Status:      C    Pool A candidate, would rank within top 19 of Pool C
       C-2    2nd tier Pool A candidate, would rank 20-29 of Pool C
      In     Clinched Pool A bid
       Blank   Ranks outside of the top 29 of Pool C

RPI50:   50% WP and 50% SOS
RPI:    25% WP and 75% SOS

Updated:      2/14/2010

My guess for Wednesday's rankings (in tiers) is:

1. Hope
-----------------------
2. Wooster
-----------------------
3. John Carroll
4. Calvin
-----------------------
5. Wittenberg
6. Thomas More

ziggy · February 17, 2010, 04:52:01 PM

Regional Rankings for 2/17:
1. Hope
2. John Carroll
3. Wooster
4. Calvin
5. Wittenberg
6. Thomas More

I already found an error as the NCAA stats sheet lists Wooster as 0-2 against in-region ranked teams rather than giving them credit for the victory over Wittenberg in their first meeting.

ChicagoHopeNut · February 17, 2010, 05:03:05 PM

Quote from: ziggy on February 17, 2010, 04:52:01 PM
Regional Rankings for 2/17:
1. Hope
2. John Carroll
3. Wooster
4. Calvin
5. Wittenberg
6. Thomas More

I already found an error as the NCAA stats sheet lists Wooster as 0-2 against in-region ranked teams rather than giving them credit for the victory over Wittenberg in their first meeting.

You can always count on the NCAA to make mistakes. $:-\$

ScotsFan · February 17, 2010, 05:17:40 PM

Quote from: ziggy on February 17, 2010, 04:52:01 PM
I already found an error as the NCAA stats sheet lists Wooster as 0-2 against in-region ranked teams rather than giving them credit for the victory over Wittenberg in their first meeting.

I wonder if this mistake had any bearing on knocking down Wooster below JCU? $:-\$

kiltedbryan · February 17, 2010, 05:18:39 PM

Quote from: ScotsFan on February 17, 2010, 05:17:40 PM
Quote from: ziggy on February 17, 2010, 04:52:01 PM
I already found an error as the NCAA stats sheet lists Wooster as 0-2 against in-region ranked teams rather than giving them credit for the victory over Wittenberg in their first meeting.

I wonder if this mistake had any bearing on knocking down Wooster below JCU? $:-\$

Perhaps...or the head-to-head helped JCU be above Wooster.

ChicagoHopeNut · February 17, 2010, 05:26:02 PM

Quote from: kiltedbryan on February 17, 2010, 05:18:39 PM
Quote from: ScotsFan on February 17, 2010, 05:17:40 PM
Quote from: ziggy on February 17, 2010, 04:52:01 PM
I already found an error as the NCAA stats sheet lists Wooster as 0-2 against in-region ranked teams rather than giving them credit for the victory over Wittenberg in their first meeting.

I wonder if this mistake had any bearing on knocking down Wooster below JCU? $:-\$

Perhaps...or the head-to-head helped JCU be above Wooster.

True. I for one thought the difference in OWP favored Wooster enough to offset other areas.