Great Lakes Region

[pennstghs]

Witt has a real shot to rise in the rankings the next two weeks as well.

Personally, Wooster despite their loss to JCU should be ranked ahead of John Carroll. Wooster hasn't lost but once since December and John Carroll has suffered one too many losses to merit being ranked second in-region

[ziggy]

Regional Rankings for 2/17:
1. Hope
2. John Carroll
3. Wooster
4. Calvin
5. Wittenberg
6. Thomas More

The beauty of the timing in which the NCAA chooses to release regional rankings is that they are quickly obsolete. Approximately 5 hours after they are released Hope and Wittenberg lose while John Carroll, Wooster, Calvin and Thomas More pick up wins.

[pennstghs]

Regional Rankings for 2/17:
1. Hope
2. John Carroll
3. Wooster
4. Calvin
5. Wittenberg
6. Thomas More

The beauty of the timing in which the NCAA chooses to release regional rankings is that they are quickly obsolete. Approximately 5 hours after they are released Hope and Wittenberg lose while John Carroll, Wooster, Calvin and Thomas More pick up wins.

touche, I knew I should have kept my mouth shot

[ScotsFan]

How close is Wabash to cracking the GL Regional Rankings?  With their win over likely previously ranked Wittenberg, Wabash now has a 16-6 regional record.  Is that good enough to get it done?  I mean, Witt's regional win percentage before their loss to Wabash was .737 which was good enough to garner the #5 slot in last week's rankings.  Wabash's win percentage after their win at Witt puts them at .727 which I would think should be good enough to get them ranked.

Of course, my reasons for inquiring about this are selfish because Wooster has swept the Lil Giants this season and it would look good for their record vs. regionally ranked opponents portion of the criteria. 

I still don't know if it would be enough for Wooster to overtake JCU if the Blue Streaks win on Saturday.  Their RPI should only improve with wins to end the season over Heide and ONU who both have better regional records than Wooster's opponents this week by far.

[KnightSlappy]

How close is Wabash to cracking the GL Regional Rankings?  With their win over likely previously ranked Wittenberg, Wabash now has a 16-6 regional record.  Is that good enough to get it done?  I mean, Witt's regional win percentage before their loss to Wabash was .737 which was good enough to garner the #5 slot in last week's rankings.  Wabash's win percentage after their win at Witt puts them at .727 which I would think should be good enough to get them ranked.

Of course, my reasons for inquiring about this are selfish because Wooster has swept the Lil Giants this season and it would look good for their record vs. regionally ranked opponents portion of the criteria. 

I still don't know if it would be enough for Wooster to overtake JCU if the Blue Streaks win on Saturday.  Their RPI should only improve with wins to end the season over Heide and ONU who both have better regional records than Wooster's opponents this week by far.

I have Wabash as the #8 team in the region (thru last night). They're big problem is the very (very) poor SOS number (312^th according to my numbers), and both Thomas More and PS-Behrend have stronger schedules. At this point, I would bet Wilmington gets back in, replacing Witt.

[KnightSlappy]

Here's what I'm looking at through Thursday's games:

REG   #   WP      OWP     OOWP    SOS     RPI     RPI50   NAT   Pool        REG     OVR   CONF     Team
GL   01   0.826   0.523   0.504   0.517   0.594   0.671   024   A   C      19-4    19-5   NCAC     Wooster
GL   02   0.800   0.538   0.491   0.523   0.592   0.661   032   A   C      12-3    17-7   MIAA     Hope
GL   03   0.800   0.537   0.488   0.521   0.590   0.660   035   C   009    12-3    16-8   MIAA     Calvin
GL   04   0.737   0.556   0.511   0.541   0.590   0.639   047   A   C      14-5    18-5   OAC      John Carroll
GL   05   0.700   0.532   0.523   0.529   0.572   0.614   065   C   028    14-6    17-7   OAC      Wilmington
GL   06   0.739   0.474   0.505   0.484   0.548   0.612   069   A          17-6    18-6   PrAC     Thomas More
GL   07   0.727   0.475   0.497   0.483   0.544   0.605   077   C   038    16-6    16-7   AMCC     Penn State-Behrend
GL   08   0.727   0.465   0.495   0.475   0.538   0.601   079   C   040    16-6    16-7   NCAC     Wabash
GL   09   0.700   0.516   0.468   0.500   0.550   0.600   080   C   041    14-6    18-6   NCAC     Wittenberg


Check out those standard-RPI numbers for the top 4 teams --that's insanely close! I'm thinking all four are good for an Pool C should they reach their respective tournament championship games otherwise unscathed, and we don't see too many "big" upsets.

[ScotsFan]

I have Wabash as the #8 team in the region (thru last night). They're big problem is the very (very) poor SOS number (312^th according to my numbers), and both Thomas More and PS-Behrend have stronger schedules. At this point, I would bet Wilmington gets back in, replacing Witt.

Thanks KS.  That answered my question.  Wabash's SOS is comaratively poor, but TMC and PSU-B don't exactly have SOS's to write home about.  I guess I was just hoping that maybe the the LG's  would slide into Witt's spot given the fact that they beat Witt on the road last week or at the very least, TMC would slide up to #5 and Wabash would slide in at #6. 

Although, as you know quite well, trying to predict how the rankings committee will rank the teams is like trying to predict lottery numbers... 

[KnightSlappy]

I have Wabash as the #8 team in the region (thru last night). They're big problem is the very (very) poor SOS number (312^th according to my numbers), and both Thomas More and PS-Behrend have stronger schedules. At this point, I would bet Wilmington gets back in, replacing Witt.

Thanks KS.  That answered my question.  Wabash's SOS is comaratively poor, but TMC and PSU-B don't exactly have SOS's to write home about.  I guess I was just hoping that maybe the the LG's  would slide into Witt's spot given the fact that they beat Witt on the road last week or at the very least, TMC would slide up to #5 and Wabash would slide in at #6. 

Although, as you know quite well, trying to predict how the rankings committee will rank the teams is like trying to predict lottery numbers... 

I'm quite positive it's more difficutl than predicting lottery numbers!

Wabash could get in at #6, but I think they may end up #7 in the NCAA's mind. I think Wilmington, with that SOS, will get into the #6 spot. The LG's will be ahead of Witt, and most likely PS-B.

...now that I look at it more they have a better chance than I originally thought... but who knows how the weight WP and SOS for any particular team...

[Happy Calvin Guy]

Here's what I'm looking at through Thursday's games:

REG   #   WP      OWP     OOWP    SOS     RPI     RPI50   NAT   Pool        REG     OVR   CONF     Team
GL   01   0.826   0.523   0.504   0.517   0.594   0.671   024   A   C      19-4    19-5   NCAC     Wooster
GL   02   0.800   0.538   0.491   0.523   0.592   0.661   032   A   C      12-3    17-7   MIAA     Hope
GL   03   0.800   0.537   0.488   0.521   0.590   0.660   035   C   009    12-3    16-8   MIAA     Calvin
GL   04   0.737   0.556   0.511   0.541   0.590   0.639   047   A   C      14-5    18-5   OAC      John Carroll
GL   05   0.700   0.532   0.523   0.529   0.572   0.614   065   C   028    14-6    17-7   OAC      Wilmington
GL   06   0.739   0.474   0.505   0.484   0.548   0.612   069   A          17-6    18-6   PrAC     Thomas More
GL   07   0.727   0.475   0.497   0.483   0.544   0.605   077   C   038    16-6    16-7   AMCC     Penn State-Behrend
GL   08   0.727   0.465   0.495   0.475   0.538   0.601   079   C   040    16-6    16-7   NCAC     Wabash
GL   09   0.700   0.516   0.468   0.500   0.550   0.600   080   C   041    14-6    18-6   NCAC     Wittenberg


Check out those standard-RPI numbers for the top 4 teams --that's insanely close! I'm thinking all four are good for an Pool C should they reach their respective tournament championship games otherwise unscathed, and we don't see too many "big" upsets.

KS--how is this likely to be changed with Calvin's upcoming back-to-back games with Alma (last reg season game and first tourney game), even if they win both?  SOS will be severely hurt I would guess.

[KnightSlappy]

Calvin's SOS will suffer, but they'll stay in the top 4, which is critical. The MIAA's in good shape to have their non-tournement winner at the top of the Pool C discussion table.

Just remember to root for Wooster and John Carroll to win their tournaments!

I'll try to plug in two games against Alma in a bit and report the results back to you.

[KnightSlappy]

Plugging in two Calvin wins over Alma, and two Hope wins over Trine we get:

REG   #   WP      OWP     OOWP    SOS     RPI     RPI50   NAT   Pool        REG     OVR   CONF     Team
GL   02   0.824   0.515   0.489   0.507   0.586   0.665   027   A   C      14-3    17-7   MIAA     Hope
GL   03   0.824   0.481   0.496   0.486   0.570   0.655   039   C   010    14-3    16-8   MIAA     Calvin


Calvin's SOS drops significantly, but they're still in decent shape. Should they go on to play Hope in the Tournament final, much of the Alma affect will be nullified.

[Happy Calvin Guy]

Just remember to root for Wooster and John Carroll to win their tournaments!

Since Pool C selections are done on a national, not regional, basis, wouldn't it be just as important to the MIAA tourney loser for other top seeds around the country besides just Wooster and JC to win their conference tourneys?

[sac]

Just remember to root for Wooster and John Carroll to win their tournaments!

Since Pool C selections are done on a national, not regional, basis, wouldn't it be just as important to the MIAA tourney loser for other top seeds around the country besides just Wooster and JC to win their conference tourneys?

Yes........but I suppose it would be possible for a team like Wilmington to beat JCU and JCU remain ranked ahead of the MIAA Pool C candidate, thus pushing their spot on the table down until JCU was selected if at all.

[KnightSlappy]

Just remember to root for Wooster and John Carroll to win their tournaments!

Since Pool C selections are done on a national, not regional, basis, wouldn't it be just as important to the MIAA tourney loser for other top seeds around the country besides just Wooster and JC to win their conference tourneys?

Yes........but I suppose it would be possible for a team like Wilmington to beat JCU and JCU remain ranked ahead of the MIAA Pool C candidate, thus pushing their spot on the table down until JCU was selected if at all.

That's what I was thinkings. Since only the top team from each region can be considered at any point in the Pool C discussion, it's to your advantage to get into the discussion ASAP so that you have more opportunities to get selected.

But you're correct. The fewer upsets we see nationally, the better chance there is for the Pool C hopefuls to get in. So no rooting for the underdogs!

[KnightSlappy]

Sorry for the delay, here's the data through Sunday's games.

REG   #   WP      OWP     OOWP    SOS     RPI     RPI50   NAT   Pool        REG     OVR   CONF     Team
GL   01   0.833   0.511   0.501   0.508   0.589   0.671   022   A   C      20-4    20-5   NCAC     Wooster
GL   02   0.813   0.530   0.488   0.516   0.590   0.664   028   A   C      13-3    18-7   MIAA     Hope
GL   03   0.813   0.508   0.492   0.503   0.580   0.658   031   C   007    13-3    17-8   MIAA     Calvin
GL   04   0.773   0.555   0.509   0.539   0.598   0.656   035   A   C      17-5    19-5   OAC      John Carroll
GL   05   0.739   0.524   0.520   0.523   0.577   0.631   049   C   016    17-6    18-7   OAC      Wilmington
GL   06   0.760   0.474   0.504   0.484   0.553   0.622   064   A   C-2    19-6    19-6   PrAC     Thomas More
GL   07   0.739   0.476   0.497   0.483   0.547   0.611   074   C   035    17-6    17-7   AMCC     Penn State-Behrend
GL   08   0.714   0.506   0.486   0.499   0.553   0.607   076   C   037    15-6    19-6   NCAC     Wittenberg
GL   09   0.739   0.464   0.494   0.474   0.540   0.606   077   C   038    17-6    17-7   PrAC     Bethany