Great Lakes Region

sac · January 18, 2009, 10:04:36 PM

Updated in-region records through Sunday's games.

1. Calvin 4-0
2. Capital 12-1
3. Carnegie Mellon 8-1
4. Wooster 9-3
5. Ohio Northern 9-3
6. John Carroll 8-3
6. Penn St.- Behrend 8-3
8. Hiram 9-4
9. Kenyon 8-4
10. Wilmington 9-5
10. Wash & Jeff 9-5
12. Wittenberg 8-5
13. Hope 3-2
14. Ohio Wesleyan 7-5
15. Frostburg St. 8-6
16. Bethany 5-5

Big drop this week for Hope obviously, I think this is just a product of their small numbers of games. Two wins this week and they'd be back among the top 8.

I dropped Thomas More and Grove City because they now have 6 in-region losses, I'll count them again when/if they get nearer to .550

Pretty lite week in important games, Carnegie has 3 in-region games this week, a really big one with Washington U next Sunday.
Games to watch
Wed.
Wash & Jeff @ Bethany
Ohio Wes. @ Wittenberg

Saturday
Wittenberg @ Kenyon

Sunday
Washington U @ Carnegie-Mellon

I worked off last weeks list, so if I missed any teams let me know I didn't go back and look to see if anyone crossed over the .500 mark.

**EDITED** to include AMCC schools Frostburg St and PS-Behrend

David Collinge · January 18, 2009, 10:40:01 PM

I think Kenyon is 8-4:
Wash&Jeff (L)
Albion (W)
Marietta (W)
Wabash (W)
OWU (L)
K'zoo (W)
Capital (L)
Case (W)
Wooster (L)
Earlham (W)
Denison (W)
Allegheny (W)

sac · January 19, 2009, 02:03:31 PM

....and so they are, thanks DC.

oldknight · January 19, 2009, 02:17:15 PM

Quote from: sac on January 18, 2009, 10:04:36 PM
Updated in-region records through Sunday's games.

1. Calvin 4-0

Sac: Calvin did beat Geneva, a school I believe has now completed its move from NAIA to D3. Wouldn't that make the Knights 5-0 in-region?

sac · January 19, 2009, 02:24:12 PM

Quote from: oldknight on January 19, 2009, 02:17:15 PM
Quote from: sac on January 18, 2009, 10:04:36 PM
Updated in-region records through Sunday's games.

1. Calvin 4-0

Sac: Calvin did beat Geneva, a school I believe has now completed its move from NAIA to D3. Wouldn't that make the Knights 5-0 in-region?

Geneva is a year two provisional, year 3 begin to count for in-region games.

Their schedule has no games listed as in-region
http://www.d3hoops.com/school/GNVA/mens/2009

Hugenerd · January 21, 2009, 08:09:16 AM

Great lakes ratings according to pabegg's RPI:

GL 62 01 0.6252 0.4866 0.5278 Calvin 005 A w C 4-0 9-5
GL 64 02 0.6325 0.5420 0.5231 Capital 006 A w C 12-1 14-1
GL 90 03 0.6725 0.6271 0.5608 Carnegie Mellon 010 C 2 7-1 11-2
GL 64 04 0.6014 0.5634 0.5286 John Carroll 041 C 18 9-3 11-4
GL 64 05 0.5947 0.5569 0.5149 Ohio Northern 044 C 20 9-3 11-4
GL 63 06 0.5837 0.5387 0.5075 Wooster 048 A second 9-3 10-5
GL 62 07 0.6261 0.7100 0.4842 Hope 075 3-2 10-5
GL 61 08 0.5444 0.4883 0.4739 Penn State-Behrend 088 A 8-3 9-5
GL 63 09 0.5510 0.4991 0.5133 Hiram 090 9-4 10-5

sac · January 22, 2009, 03:21:31 AM

Updated through Wed, Jan 21 games

1. Capital 13-1
2. Carnegie Mellon 9-1
3. Calvin 4-1
4. Wooster 10-3
5. Ohio Northern 10-3
6. John Carroll 8-3
7. Hiram 10-4
8. Kenyon 9-4
9. Penn St. Behrend 8-4
9. Hope 4-2
9. Olivet 4-2
12. Wilmington 9-5
13. Ohio Wesleyan 8-5
14. Wash & Jeff 9-6
15. Wittenberg 8-6
16. Frostburg St. 9-7
17. Bethany 6-5

Some movement last night, most notably a new #1 with Calvin losing to Olivet. I also moved Olivet in only because I was familar with them crossing into 'rankable' territory so if I've missed someone its not intentional.

Our friends from the AMCC took a hit as both PSU-Behrend and Frostburg lost to start the week, then in the PrAC Bethany beat Wash & Jeff.

I'll redo the list fresh after the weekend games. We're getting to the point where losses are difficult to recover from. Witt is pretty much a must win

Some questions about Carnegie Mellon should be answered Sunday.

Saturday
Wittenberg @ Kenyon

Sunday
Washington U @ Carnegie-Mellon

Hugenerd · January 24, 2009, 05:50:00 PM

If anyone is interested in watching CMU play tomorrow, they host WashU at noon and the game will be webcast:

http://www.cmu.edu/athletics/video/webcast.html

sac · January 25, 2009, 07:01:12 PM

Updated through Sunday's games.

1. Capital 14-1
2. Carnegie Mellon 12-2
3. Calvin 5-1
4. Wooster 11-3
5. John Carroll 9-3
6. PSU-Behrend 11-4
6. Hiram 11-4
7. Hope 5-2
7. Ohio Northern 10-4
10. Wilmington 10-5
11. Kenyon 9-5
12. Ohio Wesleyan 8-5
13. Wash & Jeff 9-6
-------------------------------
14. Wittenberg 7-5
15. Olivet 4-3
16. Grove City 6-5
17. Wabash 7-6
18. Thomas More 8-7
19. Bethany 6-6

Despite today's loss to Washington, Carnegie Mellon remains in 2nd. Ohio Northern and Kenyon suffered damaging losses on Saturday. Damaging to 'Pool C' chances anyway, ONU lost to Marietta, Kenyon to Wittenberg. I had Witt's IRR listed incorrectly last week, 7-5 is now correct.

Big week in the OAC as Capital faces #2 and #3 in the standings Wilmington and JCU. Two wins could solidify at least a 'C' bid already (?)

This is the final week before the first regional ranking I think (confirm ?), the results from this weeks two OAC clashes will go a long way towards who gets ranked in the #5 and #6 slots. I think 1-4 look pretty certain to be 1-4 on the 'standings'.

By the way the line under #13 is just the cutoff for a winning percentage of .600.

Key games this week

Jan 28.
Wabash at Wittenberg
Kenyon at Hiram
Wilmington at Capital

Jan 30
Transylvania at Wittenberg

Jan 31
Wooster at Ohio Wesleyan
Capital at John Carroll
Olivet at Hope
Grove City at Wash & Jeff

If I missed anything let me know.

Mr. Ypsi · January 25, 2009, 07:29:24 PM

Since CMU's next four games are all Case and Emory, they should be sittin' pretty!

sac · January 26, 2009, 02:10:25 PM

Pabegg calculates all the OWP, OOWP in the Pool C board. You can kind of see where teams sit right now.

QuoteGL 64 01 02 0.6281 0.5303 0.5185 Capital 004 A w C 14-1 16-1
GL 90 02 03 0.6407 0.6031 0.5383 Carnegie Mellon 017 C 3 9-2 13-3
GL 62 03 01 0.5894 0.5148 0.4945 Calvin 031 A w C 5-1 10-6
GL 64 04 04 0.5860 0.5215 0.5318 John Carroll 048 C 21 10-3 12-4
GL 62 05 07 0.5883 0.5722 0.4944 Hope 057 C 28 5-2 12-5
GL 63 06 06 0.5594 0.4722 0.5077 Wooster 061 A third 11-3 12-5
GL 64 07 05 0.5772 0.5373 0.5200 Ohio Northern 064 C 33 10-4 12-5
GL 63 08 09 0.5418 0.4693 0.4954 Hiram 080 11-4 12-5
GL 61 09 08 0.5391 0.4814 0.4791 Penn State-Behrend 084 A 10-4 11-6

CMU playing in the UAA is going to keep them in the 'C' picture all year. If they can avoid an upset, they should be sitting pretty.

The rest of the GL looks like it will have a tough time getting a 'C'. Cap and Calvin look ok at this point should they lose their conference tournaments.

sac · January 29, 2009, 10:32:10 PM

Updated through Thursday's games.

1. Capital 15-1
2t Carnegie Mellon 12-2
2t Calvin 6-1
4. Wooster 12-3
5. John Carroll 10-3
6t PSU-Behrend 12-4
6t Hiram 12-4
6t Hope 6-2
9. Ohio Northern 11-4
10. Ohio Wesleyan 9-5
11t Wilmington 10-6
11t Olivet 5-3
13. Wittenberg 8-5
14. Kenyon 9-6
15. Wash & Jeff 9-6
-------------------------------

16. Thomas More 9-7
17. Bethany 7-6
18. Grove City 6-6
19. Wabash 7-7

A little bit of movement which seems to have created a bunch of ties, I'm willing to say teams with 3 current in-region losses are still in the 'C' game but they can't afford a slip up. 4 current losses and above and its pretty unlikely.

Big games in the OAC and MIAA this weekend.

Jan 31
Wooster at Ohio Wesleyan
Capital at John Carroll
Olivet at Hope
Grove City at Wash & Jeff

sac · February 01, 2009, 05:41:09 PM

Updated through Thursday's games.

1. Capital 15-2
2. Calvin 7-1
3. Carnegie Mellon 13-3
4. John Carroll 11-3
5. Hope 7-2
6t PSU-Behrend 13-4
6t Hiram 13-4
8t Ohio Northern 12-4
8t Wooster 12-4
10. Ohio Wesleyan 10-5
11. Wilmington 11-6
12t Kenyon 10-6
12t Wash & Jeff 10-6
-------------------------------

14. Thomas More 10-7
15. Wittenberg 8-6
16. Olivet 5-4
17t Bethany 7-6
17t Albion 7-6

Big upset today as Case Reserve beat Carnegie Mellon 75-67, CMU's season will be decided in the final 2 weeks with games vs Brandeis and NYU at home, followed by a tough road swing with Rochester, WashU and Chicago to finish. CMU's margin for error just got a lot smaller.

* Wooster was the big loser this week dropping 4 places

* John Carroll solidified itself in the 'C' category and have now tied for the OAC lead with Capital

* The big winners were Hope and Calvin who closed some gaps, I don't like either's Pool C chances but for seeding they're starting to look better and better. There will be some losses among the top 6 coming.

* Really big week for Hiram coming up, Wooster and OWU.

* First ranking comes out this week, if I had to guess I think it will be, with 5&6 interchangeable.

1. Capital
2. Calvin
3. Carnegie Mellon
4. John Carroll
5. PSU-Behrend
6. Hiram

Key games this week

Wednesday
Wooster at Hiram
Hope at Albion

Saturday
Ohio Wesleyan at Hiram
Ohio Northern at John Carroll
PSU-Behrend at PSU-Altoona (2nd place AMCC)

sac · February 02, 2009, 02:24:13 PM

Pabegg's weekly update on the Pool A and C races.

Quote
GL 64 01 01 0.6291 0.5579 0.5181 Capital 009 A w C 15-2 17-2
GL 64 02 04 0.6038 0.5464 0.5225 John Carroll 024 C 5 12-3 14-4
GL 62 03 05 0.5979 0.5532 0.5077 Hope 034 C 12 7-2 14-5
GL 90 04 02 0.5973 0.5439 0.5321 Carnegie Mellon 041 C 17 10-3 14-4
GL 62 05 03 0.5692 0.4472 0.5075 Calvin 043 A w C 7-1 12-6
GL 64 06 07 0.5742 0.5108 0.5254 Ohio Northern 053 C 25 12-4 14-5
GL 63 07 08 0.5637 0.4934 0.5033 Hiram 061 C 32 13-4 14-5
GL 63 08 06 0.5605 0.4955 0.5011 Wooster 062 A third 12-4 13-6
GL 61 09 09 0.5425 0.4663 0.4873 Penn State-Behrend 074 A 12-4 13-6

......and a brief comment about Hope/Calvin

QuoteThe statistical model shows Calvin as the "better" team while the NCAA prediction model shows Hope as the higher ranked team, so I pick Calvin to win the conference and Hope to compete favorably for Pool C.

This might be true but it likely that at least 2 more losses will be spread between the two, one in the regular season, and to whichever opponent bounces them from the tournament.

Hope's #'s will only look good if Wheaton continues to win. Calvin's OWP isn't likely to get above .500. With half as many in-region games as most other great lakes teams, 3 losses is really like 6...........and 6 is really on the bubble.

Interesting stuff none the less.

KnightSlappy · February 02, 2009, 02:43:36 PM

I would say other teams play closer to 1.5 times the number of in-region games (25ish games as compared to 16ish). Making 3 loses more like 4.5 not 6.