Great Lakes Region

[sac]

I would say other teams play closer to 1.5 times the number of in-region games (25ish games as compared to 16ish).  Making 3 loses more like 4.5 not 6.

I wasn't being specific, but 3 losses with the number of in-region games Hope/Calvin will have (18 and 17 if they make MIAA Finals) will be compared against teams with between 23-26.  (I'm only using Calvin as an example because they'll have the fewest # of of in-region games in the Pool C conversation.)

Take Capital.......if they make the OAC Championship game they'll have 26 in-region games.  If Calvin were to finish 14-3, thats a winning % of .823, thats 21.4 wins on a 26 game slate...........or slightly better than 21-5, slightly worse than 22-4.

Take John Carroll......if they make the OAC Championship game they'll have 24 in-region games.  If Calvin were to finish 14-3, thats a winning % of .823, thats 19.7 wins on a 24 game slate...........or slightly better than 19-5, slightly worse than 20-4

Carnegie-Mellon will only have 23 in-region games, doing the same math.........18.9 wins, or slightly better than 18-5, slightly worse than 19-4

So yeah, roughly 4.5/3 is a 1.5 ratio......or every loss is equivalent of 1.5 losses.

3 losses for either Hope/Calvin is in the ballpark for a 'C', I think 4 would be pushing the envelope too much.  Neither gets a 'C' if they don't make the MIAA Finals.

[ziggy]

3 losses for either Hope/Calvin is in the ballpark for a 'C', I think 4 would be pushing the envelope too much.  Neither gets a 'C' if they don't make the MIAA Finals.

The scenario in my mind that seems to most likely allow for Calvin and Hope to both receive bids is for Calvin to win the second regular season match-up and then for Hope to win the conference tournament.  I think Calvin has a really tough time getting in if they lose to Hope then don't win the tournament.

The other factor will be upsets in other conference tournaments.  It looks a lot better if Capital is going in as a Pool A than as a Pool C.

[sac]

3 losses for either Hope/Calvin is in the ballpark for a 'C', I think 4 would be pushing the envelope too much.  Neither gets a 'C' if they don't make the MIAA Finals.

The scenario in my mind that seems to most likely allow for Calvin and Hope to both receive bids is for Calvin to win the second regular season match-up and then for Hope to win the conference tournament.  I think Calvin has a really tough time getting in if they lose to Hope then don't win the tournament.

The other factor will be upsets in other conference tournaments.  It looks a lot better if Capital is going in as a Pool A than as a Pool C.

Interesting, I take the opposite view (I think) and only because of Calvin's OWP number which I don't think will get above .500.    I wouldn't want to be sitting on 3 losses and have an OWP of around .490.  Calvin's best option would be to win the tournament.  Hope might skate by but.........

I only like Hope as a C if Wheaton continues to win.   I don't like eithers chances with 4 losses.

[KnightSlappy]

I tend to agree with ziggy.  A 2 loss Calvin team may be more likely to get the Pool C bid than a 3 loss Hope team.  sac is correct that Hope stands a far greater chance at getting in with 3 loses than Calvin does (with 3 loses).

ziggy's scenario: Calvin15-2 in region (Pool C),  Hope 15-3 (Pool A)
sac's scenario: Calvin 15-2 in region (Pool A), Hope 15-3 (Pool C)

Calvin may have a hard time getting in with 3 loses.  Hope's RPI could (should?) be good enough to get in with 3 loses.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

Are the first set of regional rankings due out today or next week?

[Pat Coleman]

Today, supposedly.

[HopeConvert]

Where will they be posted?

[Pat Coleman]

D3hoops.com, as soon as they're available.

[ziggy]

You can find regional rankings at:
http://www.ncaa.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/ncaa/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/DIIIMBBRANKING2-4-09

Great Lakes Region 
1. Capital  17-2  15-2
2. Carnegie Mellon  14-4  10-3
3. John Carroll  14-4  12-3
4. Calvin  12-6  7-1
5. Hope  14-5  7-2
6. Ohio Northern  14-5  12-4

[sac]

I think this is the first time the NCAC has never had a team ranked, at least as long as I can recall these polls.


I haven't looked at all the criteria (wins vs ranked teams, win vs teams on the Tuesday of a full moon etc.) but I suspect Calvin is #4 based on their OWP which is under .500.  Their regional Win % is better than both Carnegie and John Carroll.

Hiram and PSU-Behrend both have low OWP's.  IF the GL could rank 8 teams like everyone else I else I think they'd be there.

[SKOT]

Hiram and PSU-Behrend both have low OWP's.  IF the GL could rank 8 teams like everyone else I else I think they'd be there.

Is the number of teams ranked based off of the number of teams in each region or is this just quirky and odd like all things NCAA?

[sac]

Based on # of teams in each region, the GL is the 3rd smallest of the eight regions.   The Northeast will rank 10 teams.  I dont' recall now but I think there's another formula involved.

[Pat Coleman]

It is based on the number of teams in each region, yes.

[ziggy]

Updated from yesterday's rankings:

Great Lakes Region
1. Capital  18-2  16-2 (win)
2. Carnegie Mellon  14-4  10-3 (DNP)
3. John Carroll  15-4  13-3 (win)
4. Calvin  13-6  8-1 (win)
5. Hope  14-6  7-3 (loss)
6. Ohio Northern  15-5  13-4 (win)

Items to note:
-The OAC teams have at least four losses coming through the end of the season:  Ohio Northern still plays Capital and John Carroll and two teams will lose in the conference tournament.  John Carroll and Capital have the easier schedule and the inside track on a tournament berth.

-Hope probably took a big Pool C hit with their loss at Albion.  A loss at Calvin next Wednesday means they will need the AQ.  I think the MIAA's best chance at two bids comes from Hope losing at Calvin next week then winning the conference tournament.  That scenario probably gives the MIAA its best chance at a Pool C.

-It is critical that Calvin keeps the regional record up because of a weak OWP.  While the low number of in region games means that each loss is magnified, the same must be said for each win.  2 more losses gives them a 14-3 record in region (assuming they make the MIAA final); putting them on par with a 20-5 team.

[sac]

Updated through Wednesday's games.

1t Capital 16-2
1t Calvin 8-1
3. Carnegie Mellon 13-3
4. John Carroll 12-3
5. PSU-Behrend 14-4
6t Ohio Northern 13-4
6t Wooster 13-4
8. Hiram 13-5
9. Hope 7-3
-----------------------------------
10. Ohio Wesleyan 11-5
11. Wilmington 12-6
12t Kenyon 11-6
12t Wash & Jeff 11-6
14. Thomas More 11-7
15. Wittenberg 9-6
16. Olivet 6-4
-------------------------------
17t Bethany 8-6
17t Albion 8-6

**  The first line is the .700 win % cutoff, the second is .600 win %


**  Big loss last night for Hope, margin for error the rest of way is rail thin.  1 more loss before the MIAA tournament puts them squarly on the bubble.  Their best possible in-region record with still being a  Pool C candidate is 14-4 or .778, 13-5 is .722, 12-6 is .667.  (.708 made the tournament last year)

**  Hiram v Ohio Wesleyan is for all purposes a Pool C elimination game.  Loser can probably only make the tournament by winning the AQ.

**  PSU-Altoona lost last night which give PSU-B a 1 game lead in the AMCC

Key games this weekend

Saturday
Ohio Wesleyan at Hiram
Ohio Northern at John Carroll
PSU-Behrend at PSU-Altoona (2nd place AMCC)