Great Lakes Region

sac · February 07, 2009, 11:57:43 PM

If you're a fan of D3, Wednesday's your night

Wheaton at Elmhurst.......currently tied atop CCIW

Hope at Calvin..........Calvin one game lead over Hope

Transylvania at Franklin.........currently tied atop HCAC

Platteville at Whitewater........both in top 10, chasing Stevens Point in WIAC

Wittenberg at Ohio Wesleyan.......OWU tied for NCAC lead

not a bad lineup.

sac · February 08, 2009, 03:17:33 PM

Start with the real rankings........

Great Lakes Region
1. Capital 18-3 16-3 (win, loss)
2. Carnegie Mellon 16-4 12-3 (win, win)
3. John Carroll 16-4 14-3 (win, win)
4. Calvin 14-6 9-1 (win, win)
5. Hope 15-6 8-3 (loss, win)
6. Ohio Northern 15-6 13-5 (win, loss)

**I suspect Wooster moves into the rankings next week, with ONU's loss Hope might stick around at number 6, maybe Ohio Wesleyan takes that spot, maybe PS-Behrend.

Updated through the weekend games.

1. Calvin 9-1
2. Capital 16-3
3. Carnegie Mellon 15-3
4. John Carroll 13-3
-------------------------------
5. PSU-Behrend 15-4
6. Wooster 14-4
7. Hope 8-3
8. Ohio Northern 13-5
9. Ohio Wesleyan 12-5
-----------------------------------
10. Hiram 13-6
11t Kenyon 12-6
11t Wash & Jeff 12-6
13t. Wilmington 12-7
13t. Thomas More 12-7
15. Wittenberg 10-6
16t Bethany 9-6
16t Albion 9-6
-------------------------------
18. Olivet 6-5

** The first line is the .800, the second line is the .700 win % cutoff, the third is .600 win %..........with just 4 weeks to go, I think if you're under the .700 line the pool C chances are pretty slim, all those teams need wins to get above .700.

** Calvin now has the best in-region record again, will be interesting to see if that affects the new poll. Crucial game with Hope for MIAA and C purposes, a win might lock them into a C spot if they take care of business. I'm not sure Capital will fall from the top spot.

Key games this weekend

Wed Feb 11.
Wash & Jeff @ Thomas More (1st and 2nd in PrAC)
PS- Behrend @ Medaille (1st v 2nd in AMCC)
Wittenberg @ Ohio Wesleyan
Ohio Northern @ Wilmington
Hope @ Calvin

Sat Feb 14
Wooster @ Wittenberg
Capital @ Ohio Northern
Calvin @ Olivet

ziggy · February 09, 2009, 01:01:43 PM

From the Pool C board:

Quote from: pabegg on February 09, 2009, 12:35:13 PM
This week's update:

Reg Conf Rank Prior RPI OWP OOWP School Natl Status Reg Overall
GL 64 01 01 0.6177 0.5578 0.5132 Capital 016 A w C 16-3 18-3
GL 64 02 02 0.6135 0.5545 0.5214 John Carroll 019 C 4 14-3 16-4
GL 90 03 04 0.5940 0.5348 0.5022 Carnegie Mellon 032 C 9 12-3 16-4
GL 62 04 05 0.5645 0.5197 0.5367 Calvin 038 A w C 9-1 14-6
GL 63 05 08 0.5783 0.4307 0.4968 Wooster 046 A second 14-4 15-6
GL 63 06 nr 0.5773 0.5154 0.5218 Ohio Wesleyan 055 C 24 13-5 14-6
GL 62 07 03 0.5748 0.5202 0.5026 Hope 056 C 25 8-3 15-6
GL 64 08 06 0.5687 0.5157 0.5041 Ohio Northern 062 C 31 13-5 15-6
GL 61 09 09 0.5419 0.4526 0.4845 Penn State-Behrend 068 A third 14-4 15-6

sac · February 09, 2009, 01:08:21 PM

Calvin's OWP is above .500 now.

KnightSlappy · February 09, 2009, 01:22:23 PM

I don't know how Calvin's OWP could have jumped that high so soon. Every number I have crunched has seemed that they need to get lucky in the conference tournament matchups to get to 0.500.

I can't figure out pabegg's RPI calculation either. The standard in-region calculation (0.25*W%+0.5*OWP+0.25*OOWP) lines with pabegg's rpi for Capital, John Carroll, and Penn State-Behrend, but Calvin, Hope, and Carnegie Mellon show some deviation.

According to his OWP and OOWP #s, Calvin's RPI should be 0.619. Even if you drop their OWP from his listed 0.5197 to 0.4197 thier RPI comes out to 0.569. pabegg lists Calvin's RPI as 0.5645

Am I calculating wrong or is something off on his sheet? I PMed him to try to get some info.

sac · February 09, 2009, 01:26:13 PM

I raised a brow when I saw the OWP that doesn't make sense to me. Albion and Olivet have both come north of the .500 mark in recent games, combined with Hope that could be enough I suppose.

I don't think pabegg uses the standard RPI calculation they use for D1.

KnightSlappy · February 09, 2009, 01:33:23 PM

It still won't get above 0.500 though. Albion and Olivet's W's have all come at the expense of other MIAA teams getting L's. Each week Calvin's OWP would approach 0.500 but would never be able to pass it.

I guess I am not quite sure if each team's WP is averaged or if total W's and loses are used. For example, if Calvin beat Team A (5-0 in region) and also beat Team B (1-1) in region, would Calvin's OWP be 0.75 or 0.857?

sac · February 09, 2009, 01:39:58 PM

The other seven teams all played in-region games outside the conference, thats where the differences would lie.

This is what I had for in-region records before conference play.

Adrian 1-3
Albion 2-3
Alma 2-3
Calvin 0-0
Hope 0-1
Kzoo 2-5
Olivet 1-0
Trine 2-3

sac · February 09, 2009, 01:43:49 PM

Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 09, 2009, 01:33:23 PM
It still won't get above 0.500 though. Albion and Olivet's W's have all come at the expense of other MIAA teams getting L's. Each week Calvin's OWP would approach 0.500 but would never be able to pass it.

I guess I am not quite sure if each team's WP is averaged or if total W's and loses are used. For example, if Calvin beat Team A (5-0 in region) and also beat Team B (1-1) in region, would Calvin's OWP be 0.75 or 0.857?

Total wins and losses = new average

sac · February 09, 2009, 01:47:22 PM

I come up with .4437 for Calvin's OWP

sac · February 09, 2009, 01:55:13 PM

Cleary we're doing something wrong, I come up with .4841 for Hope

KnightSlappy · February 09, 2009, 01:56:47 PM

Quote from: sac on February 09, 2009, 01:47:22 PM
I come up with .4437 for Calvin's OWP

Quote from: sac on February 09, 2009, 01:55:13 PM
Cleary we're doing something wrong, I come up with .4841 for Hope

They both will jump up after Wed. What you have for Calvin's looks right to me.

sac · February 09, 2009, 03:19:17 PM

QuoteGL 64 01 01 0.6177 0.5578 0.5132 Capital 016 A w C 16-3 18-3
GL 64 02 02 0.6135 0.5545 0.5214 John Carroll 019 C 4 14-3 16-4
GL 90 03 04 0.5940 0.5197 0.5367 Carnegie Mellon 032 C 9 12-3 16-4
GL 62 04 05 0.5645 0.4307 0.4968 Calvin 038 A w C 9-1 14-6
GL 63 05 08 0.5783 0.5157 0.5041 Wooster 046 A second 14-4 15-6
GL 63 06 nr 0.5773 0.5381 0.5109 Ohio Wesleyan 055 C 24 13-5 14-6
GL 62 07 03 0.5748 0.5348 0.5022 Hope 056 C 25 8-3 15-6
GL 64 08 06 0.5687 0.5154 0.5218 Ohio Northern 062 C 31 13-5 15-6
GL 61 09 09 0.5419 0.4526 0.4845 Penn State-Behrend 068 A third 14-4 15-6

Pabegg updated his chart, Calvin's OWP is correct now, still not sure about Hope's.

ziggy · February 09, 2009, 03:24:05 PM

Quote from: sac on February 09, 2009, 03:19:17 PM
QuoteGL 64 01 01 0.6177 0.5578 0.5132 Capital 016 A w C 16-3 18-3
GL 64 02 02 0.6135 0.5545 0.5214 John Carroll 019 C 4 14-3 16-4
GL 90 03 04 0.5940 0.5197 0.5367 Carnegie Mellon 032 C 9 12-3 16-4
GL 62 04 05 0.5645 0.4307 0.4968 Calvin 038 A w C 9-1 14-6
GL 63 05 08 0.5783 0.5157 0.5041 Wooster 046 A second 14-4 15-6
GL 63 06 nr 0.5773 0.5381 0.5109 Ohio Wesleyan 055 C 24 13-5 14-6
GL 62 07 03 0.5748 0.5348 0.5022 Hope 056 C 25 8-3 15-6
GL 64 08 06 0.5687 0.5154 0.5218 Ohio Northern 062 C 31 13-5 15-6
GL 61 09 09 0.5419 0.4526 0.4845 Penn State-Behrend 068 A third 14-4 15-6
Pabegg updated his chart, Calvin's OWP is correct now, still not sure about Hope's.

Good work guys, the numbers didn't make sense. Especially considering Calvin has already gone a second time through the bottom of the league, and still have Hope and Albion to come.

sac · February 09, 2009, 04:26:26 PM

pabegg tells me Hope's number is now correct, I still differ with him on that.