Great Lakes Region

sac · February 09, 2009, 10:51:51 PM

Here's the reply I got from pabegg that explains the OWP problems much better.......either I had forgotten or didn't remember.........probably both

QuoteOWP is the average of the opponents' winning percentage.

Calvin 8/9
Albion 8/13
Wheaton (Ill.) 13/16
Kalamazoo 5/15
Olivet 6/9
Kalamazoo 5/15
Albion 8/13
Alma 5/14
Adrian 4/13
Trine 4/14
Olivet 6/9

You've got to take the percentages from each of those lines and average them.

In order to get the numbers above, you've got to take out the Hope games. For example, Olivet is 6-5 but 6-3 in games not including Hope.

KnightSlappy · February 12, 2009, 09:50:33 AM

Great Lakes Region Rankings from 2/11/09
1. Capital 18-3, 16-3 (won, 17-3)
2. Carnegie Mellon 16-4, 12-3
3. John Carroll 16-4, 14-3 (won, 15-3)
4. Calvin 14-6, 9-1 (won, 10-1)
5. Wooster 15-6, 14-4 (won, 15-4)
6. Ohio Northern 15-6, 13-5 (won, 14-5)

Calvin's WP is too high to remain at #4 for very much longer even if the 3 above them keep winning. The OWP for the Knights has been a problem but adding .800 Hope to the list will help that for the next set of rankings. IMO only the top 4 have a shot at a Pool C bid. Wooster and ONU need to win the AQ to get in.

sac · February 12, 2009, 10:37:48 PM

Updated through the weekend games.

1. Calvin 10-1
2. Capital 17-3
3. John Carroll 14-3
4. Carnegie Mellon 12-3

-------------------------------
5. Wooster 15-4
6. PSU-Behrend 15-5
7. Ohio Northern 14-5
8. Ohio Wesleyan 13-5
-----------------------------------
9. Hope 8-4

10t. Hiram 13-7
12t Kenyon 12-7
12t Wash & Jeff 12-7
10t. Thomas More 13-7
15. Wittenberg 10-7
14t Bethany 10-6
14t Albion 10-6
16. Wilmington 12-8
-------------------------------
18. Olivet 6-6

*** Big day yesterday in the GL Region, quite a few teams who still had slim 'C' chances are all but officially eliminated, all teams from #10 on down cannot get above a .700 win %. and still be a 'C' candidate.

*** Hope would be eliminated with 1 more regular season loss, all teams above them can suffer at least 1 more regular season loss and still stay above the magical .700 mark.

*** PS-Behrend lost yesterday and their 'C' chances are probably pretty slim to begin with, I might put them right on the bubble with Hope.

Key games this weekend

Sat Feb 14
Wooster @ Wittenberg
Capital @ Ohio Northern
Calvin @ Olivet

KnightSlappy · February 13, 2009, 09:33:11 AM

sac,
I have Mellon at 12-3 in region. I also think you should add another line for teams 0.900 and above.

sac · February 13, 2009, 12:43:13 PM

yep on Carnegie

sac · February 13, 2009, 09:42:07 PM

Brandeis 66 Carnegie Mellon 63

Thats a big loss for CMU, they still have some tough games to go.

Sun NYU
2-20 @Washington
2-22 @ Chicago
2-28 @ Rochester

CMU needs to win 2 of those to get to .700, probably need 3 to be in good position for a Pool C bid.

KnightSlappy · February 15, 2009, 01:50:51 PM

Great Lakes Region Rankings from 2/11/09 Updates through Sunday
1. Capital 18-3, 16-3 (won, won, 18-3)
2. Carnegie Mellon 16-4, 12-3 (lost, won, 13-4)
3. John Carroll 16-4, 14-3 (won, won, 16-3)
4. Calvin 14-6, 9-1 (won, won 11-1)
5. Wooster 15-6, 14-4 (won, won, 16-4)
6. Ohio Northern 15-6, 13-5 (won, lost, 14-6)

Wooster probably stays at #5 and Ohio Wesleyan could see that #6 spot. I'll peg JCU for #2 and Calvin for #3 but those two teams are probably very close. Carnegie Mellon probably falls to #4, staying north of Wooster in the rankings. Capital stays strong in the top spot.

sac · February 15, 2009, 09:51:42 PM

Updated through the weekend games.

1. Calvin 11-1
2. Capital 18-3
3. John Carroll 15-3
4. Carnegie Mellon 13-4
5. Wooster 16-4
-------------------------------
6t. PSU-Behrend 14-5
6t.. Ohio Wesleyan 14-5
7. Ohio Northern 14-6
-----------------------------------
9. Hope 9-4

*** Calvin, Capital and John Carroll have clinched win% of over 70%

This weeks games

none: There are no more games pairing these 9 schools against each other.

Sat: Carnegie Mellon @ Washinton U

ziggy · February 16, 2009, 04:25:13 PM

Quote from: pabegg on February 16, 2009, 09:41:33 AM
OK, here we go for this week:

Reg Conf Rank Prior RPI OWP OOWP School Natl Status Reg Overall
GL 64 01 01 0.6193 0.5522 0.5154 Capital 013 A w C 18-3 20-3
GL 64 02 02 0.6115 0.5416 0.5208 John Carroll 018 C 4 16-3 18-4
GL 62 03 04 0.5876 0.4686 0.4965 Calvin 020 A w C 11-1 16-6
GL 63 04 05 0.5828 0.5133 0.5047 Wooster 037 A w C 16-4 17-6
GL 90 05 03 0.5921 0.5335 0.5366 Carnegie Mellon 038 C 13 13-4 17-5
GL 63 06 06 0.5798 0.5315 0.5063 Ohio Wesleyan 044 C 16 15-5 16-6
GL 64 07 08 0.5716 0.5334 0.5194 Ohio Northern 057 C 26 14-6 16-7
GL 62 08 07 0.5692 0.5446 0.4951 Hope 068 C 35 9-4 16-7
GL 61 09 09 0.5412 0.4724 0.4831 Penn State-Behrend 082 14-5 16-7

Reg Region
Conf Conference number
Rank Regional ranking
Prior Prior regional ranking
School
Natl National ranking based on regional results
Status
B + number: Pool B ranking (top 4 in tournament)
C + number: Pool C ranking of 18 teams in tournament
C second: second tier Pool C (spots 19-28)
C third: third tier Pool C (spots 29-38)
A in: clinched Pool A bid
A w C: Pool A, in Pool C range (1 to 18)
A second: Pool A, in second tier Pool C
A third: Pool A, in third tier Pool C
A: lower level Pool A
blank: lower level Pool C

KnightSlappy · February 18, 2009, 03:36:36 PM

New Regional Rankings 2/18/2009:

http://www.ncaa.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/ncaa/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/DIIIMBBRANKING2-18-09

KnightSlappy · February 20, 2009, 02:43:22 PM

Great Lakes Region Rankings 2/18/09 Updates Through Thursday 2/19
1. Capital 20-3 18-3 (won, 19-3)
2. John Carroll 18-4 16-3 (won, 17-3)
3. Carnegie Mellon 17-5 13-4
4. Calvin 16-6 11-1 (won, 12-1)
5. Wooster 17-6 16-4 (won, 17-4)
6. Ohio Wesleyan 16-6 15-5 (won, 16-5)

ziggy · February 20, 2009, 09:36:15 PM

Washington U 77
Carnegie Mellon 63
Final

sac · February 22, 2009, 06:17:01 PM

Just to finish up this season long look at the region..........final regular season in-region records.
1. Capital 20-3 .870
2t. Calvin 12-2 .857
2t. John Carroll 18-3 .857
4. Wooster 18-4 .818
--------------------------
5. Carnegie Mellon 14-5 .737
6. Hope 11-4 .733
7. Ohio Wesleyan 16-6 .727
8. PSU-Behrend 15-6 .714
------------------------------------
9. Ohio Northern 15-7 .682

Some changes this week, Calvin's loss doesn't hurt them too bad with their win%, however since the tournament selection involves OWP and OOWP I believe the Knights are firmly on the bubble as is Wooster.

Capital and JCU should be in regardless of how their tournaments go.

Hope, Ohio Wesleyan and Carnegie Mellon are on an even thinner bubble than Calvin and Wooster, in fact I think CMU is probably out, and Hope needs to win the MIAA. At the very least Hope and OWU need to win 2 in their tournament to have any chance at a 'C' bid, slim as that might be.

Ohio Northern needs to win their conference tournament, as does PSU Behrend.

sac · February 22, 2009, 06:20:51 PM

Here's how Pabegg has it through this afternoon, with an update coming tommorrow sometime.

GL 64 01 01 0.6085 0.5252 0.5139 Capital 012 A w C 20-3 22-3
GL 64 02 02 0.6102 0.5328 0.5182 John Carroll 015 C 4 18-3 20-4
GL 62 03 03 0.5783 0.4814 0.4934 Calvin 033 A w C 12-2 17-7
GL 63 04 04 0.5751 0.4900 0.5023 Wooster 036 A w C 18-4 19-6
GL 90 05 05 0.5846 0.5363 0.5317 Carnegie Mellon 044 C 15 14-5 18-6
GL 62 06 08 0.5640 0.5137 0.4953 Hope 060 C 27 11-4 18-7
GL 63 07 06 0.5613 0.5094 0.4993 Ohio Wesleyan 065 C 32 16-6 17-7
GL 64 08 05 0.5622 0.5241 0.5190 Ohio Northern 079 15-7 17-8
GL 61 09 09 0.5422 0.4853 0.4838 Penn State-Behrend 089 15-6 17-8

He has CMU as the #15 C team right now, but in all likely hood there will be at least 4 upsets in conference tournaments that will pull a C bid away.

sac · February 22, 2009, 07:34:41 PM

Here are the win percentages the seven leading 'C' candidates can finish with
1st number is loss in round 1
2nd number is win in round 1, loss in round 2
3rd number is win in rounds 1 & 2, loss in Championship game

Capital .833, .840, .846
Calvin .800, .813, .824
John Carroll .818, .826, .833
Wooster .783, .792, .800
Carnegie Mellon .737
Hope .688, .706, .722
Ohio Wesleyan .696, .708, .720

........also the earlier the loss occurs, the bigger the hit to OWP and OOWP to take into consideration.

I actually like Calvin's and Wooster win %, it their OWP and OOWP numbers that could be a roadblock to other teams getting on the C table if one of those two gets on the table first. Nationally, Calvin and Wooster OWP and OOWP don't stack up well. I believe either would be a late C bid.

I realize there are other considerations, but win%, and OWP/OOWP seem to be the biggies.