Great Lakes Region

ScotsFan · January 09, 2011, 01:12:17 PM

Maybe Marietta was looking ahead to their next two games and forgot they had a game with the Berg as they took their first loss of the season yesterday at Heidelberg, 81-77. Cap also lost to B-W, 86-79. Had Cap won, they would have been in a tie for 1st in the OAC.

KnightSlappy · January 10, 2011, 12:39:22 PM

Here's how the GL region is stacking up according to in-region RPI (with SOS weights!)

Reg. Rnk Team     Conf.    WP    wSOS    wRPI    Nat. Status   REG   D3    vRRO OVR
GL   1   Wooster     NCAC   1.000   0.563   0.672   4    A   C    11-0 12-0 0-0   14-0
GL   2   Thiel     PrAC   0.875   0.538   0.622   17   A   C    7-1   7-1   0-0   9-4
GL   3   Hope     MIAA   0.800   0.556   0.617   22   A   wC   4-1   4-2   0-0   8-5
GL   4   Calvin     MIAA   0.750   0.555   0.604   39   C   15   3-1   3-4   0-0   6-8
GL   5   Wabash     NCAC   0.923   0.493   0.600   46   C   21 12-1 12-1 0-0   13-1
GL   6   Heidelberg OAC    0.600   0.595   0.596   48   A   bub 6-4   6-5   0-0   6-7
GL   7   Albion     MIAA   0.667   0.564   0.589   53   C   25   4-2   7-4   0-0   8-5
GL   8   John Carroll OAC    0.636   0.573   0.589   54   C   26   7-4   8-4   0-0   9-4
GL   9   Olivet     MIAA   0.600   0.576   0.582   65   C   33   3-2   4-3   0-0   6-7

MIAA in Exile · January 10, 2011, 12:59:28 PM

Knight Slappy---how is Marietta not in this ranking?

KnightSlappy · January 10, 2011, 01:09:10 PM

Quote from: MIAA in Exile on January 10, 2011, 12:59:28 PM
Knight Slappy---how is Marietta not in this ranking?

Their issues is a bad (Sir Charles would call it turrible) SOS.

I have them as #10. WP: .909, wSOS: .458, wRPI: .584

MIAA in Exile · January 10, 2011, 01:12:56 PM

yes but they are an A---since they led the OAC--you have H'berg as the OAC A.
It's no biggie since it's so early in the conference season and I'm not being critical...just curious.

Thanks for compiling this.

sac · January 10, 2011, 01:15:03 PM

9 of the top 65 RPI's from this region. Strong!

ziggy · January 10, 2011, 01:19:45 PM

Quote from: MIAA in Exile on January 10, 2011, 01:12:56 PM
yes but they are an A---since they led the OAC--you have H'berg as the OAC A.
It's no biggie since it's so early in the conference season and I'm not being critical...just curious.

Thanks for compiling this.

This same "issue" came up last season. Heidi gets the "A" since they have the higher RPI and are thereby the stronger team by calculation. It should be assumed that the strongest team wins the conference tournament and the automatic qualifier that comes with it.

The same kind of thing comes up in the MIAA where Albion is on top of the standings yet Hope "gets" the AQ based on RPI.

KnightSlappy · January 10, 2011, 01:22:08 PM

Quote from: ziggy on January 10, 2011, 01:19:45 PM
Quote from: MIAA in Exile on January 10, 2011, 01:12:56 PM
yes but they are an A---since they led the OAC--you have H'berg as the OAC A.
It's no biggie since it's so early in the conference season and I'm not being critical...just curious.

Thanks for compiling this.

This same "issue" came up last season. Heidi gets the "A" since they have the higher RPI and are thereby the stronger team by calculation. It should be assumed that the strongest team wins the conference tournament and the automatic qualifier that comes with it.

The same kind of thing comes up in the MIAA where Albion is on top of the standings yet Hope "gets" the AQ based on RPI.

Exactly. Way to early for me to go through (by hand) and figure out all of the conference leaders. Since the AQ goes to a tourney champ anyway (excepting the UAA), it doesn't much matter how I figure it.

sac · January 10, 2011, 01:30:39 PM

I think if the MIAA were to get 4 teams in the tournament like this chart suggests right now, our buddies across the lake might have a conniption.

There is also zero chance of that actually happening, but I'd love that reaction.

KnightSlappy · January 10, 2011, 01:37:39 PM

Quote from: sac on January 10, 2011, 01:30:39 PM
I think if the MIAA were to get 4 teams in the tournament like this chart suggests right now, our buddies across the lake might have a conniption.

There is also zero chance of that actually happening, but I'd love that reaction.

It's saying Albion and Olivet are below the cutoff. 18 Pool C teams make it, and they're 25 and 33, but they do have a shot at it.

Four's probably impossible, but they could do three, I think.

It's also a good time for me to point out that these only consider two of the criteria: WP and SOS. Head to head, vs. regionally ranked, and common opponents are not included, so adjust accordingly (e.g. you would be justified to consider Calvin as "ranked" ahead of Hope via the head-to-head matchup).

ziggy · January 10, 2011, 01:38:11 PM

Quote from: sac on January 10, 2011, 01:30:39 PM
I think if the MIAA were to get 4 teams in the tournament like this chart suggests right now, our buddies across the lake might have a conniption.

There is also zero chance of that actually happening, but I'd love that reaction.

edit: KS covered it so I'll just say that we have all the little "we're lucky to get one team in via pool A" conferences to thank for that.

sac · January 16, 2011, 08:42:12 PM

This year's tracking of the in-region records.

First column overall record/second column in-region record

1. Wooster 16-0 13-0
2. Wabash 14-1 13-1
2. Penn St.-Behrend 13-1 13-1
4. Thiel 11-4 10-1
--------------------------------------.900
5. Hope 10-5 6-1
6. Marietta 14-2 11-2
7. Wittenberg 11-4 9-2
--------------------------------------.800
--------------------------------------.700
8. Bethany 10-5 10-5
8. Capital 10-4 8-4
8. Calvin 7-9 4-2
8. Adrian 8-6 4-2
12. Albion 8-6 5-3
---------------------------------------.600
13. John Carroll 10-5 7-5

Next week's key games
1-19 Adrian at Hope
1-19 Wabash at Wittenberg

1-22 Wittenberg at Wooster
1-22 Capital at John Carroll
1-22 Hope at Albion

* I did this quickly so I might have left someone out who shouldn't be, I tried to keep it to teams over .600 in in-region record. Let me know if I left anyone out.

wooscotsfan · January 16, 2011, 10:08:02 PM

Sac - nice work on this list and thanks for posting it.

I think the one other team that should be included is Penn State Behrend because they are in GL region.

sac · January 16, 2011, 11:07:03 PM

Quote from: wooscotsfan on January 16, 2011, 10:08:02 PM
Sac - nice work on this list and thanks for posting it.

I think the one other team that should be included is Penn State Behrend because they are in GL region.

Without a doubt, thanks

sac · January 17, 2011, 08:29:23 PM

Offensive and defensive efficiency rating for the teams above through Sunday's games.

Top 5 OFFENSE
1. Wooster 118.5
2. John Carroll 114.9
2. Hope 114.9
4. Marietta 112.9
5. PSU-Behrend 112.6

Top 5 DEFENSE
1. Wabash 83.0*
2. Adrian 91.0
3. Wittenberg 92.0
4. Wooster 92.2
5. Thiel 92.6

* I looked hard in the Wabash stats to find an error somewhere, but came up with nothing. For D3 I think this is an insanely low number, a good chance it would be the lowest in D3.

OVERALL (200-defense + offense)
1. Wooster 226.3
2. Wabash 223.0
3. PSU-Behrend 220.6
4. Marietta 215.4
5. Hope 212.3
6. Bethany 210.6
7. John Carroll 210.4
8. Capital 209.7
9. Albion 209.1
10. Thiel 207.8
11. Wittenberg 207.6
12. Calvin 204.7
13. Adrian 203

If any of you remember Barry Robinson's old Columbus Multimedia Poll, his efficiency calculations were very similar to these.

A good thing to keep in mind is these are efficiency values vs the schedule each team has played, and as we know, each team has not played the same strength of schedule.