Great Lakes Region

[ScotsFan]

Last night scores, involving 'ranked' losing teams

Calvin 81 Albion 50
OWU 87 Wabash 76


Albion's C chances are likely dead, and Wabash's took a big hit last night.

I would still say that Wabash is ok for the time being. Randolph-Macon will be a win against a regionally ranked opponent and their winning percentage is still very strong. The hardest part about prognosticating a tournament field is predicting how the committee will weight WP versus SOS. If the example of Anderson last year taught us anything, it is that Wabash's WP north of .800 should look very good to the people in power.

I think I was probably mentally taking into account that Wabash has to play Witt and @ Wooster again.

Being a C candidate of course means losing in your tournament, should Wabash lose both to Witt and Woo again, they are looking at 6 losses in-region which is firmly a bubble team and their SOS as I recall isn't very good.


Bottom line for Wabash is they need to beat either Witt or Wooster to be a serious C team in all likelihood.

I'm kind of thinking that Wabash's loss last night just made their home date with Witt a must win if they want to have any chance of getting a C. 

Also, where is Cap in the discussion?  They have the same record, both overall and in-region as JCU.  Is JCU's SOS that much stronger than Cap's?

[KnightSlappy]

Last night scores, involving 'ranked' losing teams

Calvin 81 Albion 50
OWU 87 Wabash 76


Albion's C chances are likely dead, and Wabash's took a big hit last night.

I would still say that Wabash is ok for the time being. Randolph-Macon will be a win against a regionally ranked opponent and their winning percentage is still very strong. The hardest part about prognosticating a tournament field is predicting how the committee will weight WP versus SOS. If the example of Anderson last year taught us anything, it is that Wabash's WP north of .800 should look very good to the people in power.

I think I was probably mentally taking into account that Wabash has to play Witt and @ Wooster again.

Being a C candidate of course means losing in your tournament, should Wabash lose both to Witt and Woo again, they are looking at 6 losses in-region which is firmly a bubble team and their SOS as I recall isn't very good.


Bottom line for Wabash is they need to beat either Witt or Wooster to be a serious C team in all likelihood.

I agree that they'll probably have to win against one of the other W's, but I usually don't take the conference tournament loss into account becuase everyone, except UAA, that's a Pool C also has to lose that one.

[KnightSlappy]

Last night scores, involving 'ranked' losing teams

Calvin 81 Albion 50
OWU 87 Wabash 76


Albion's C chances are likely dead, and Wabash's took a big hit last night.

I would still say that Wabash is ok for the time being. Randolph-Macon will be a win against a regionally ranked opponent and their winning percentage is still very strong. The hardest part about prognosticating a tournament field is predicting how the committee will weight WP versus SOS. If the example of Anderson last year taught us anything, it is that Wabash's WP north of .800 should look very good to the people in power.

I think I was probably mentally taking into account that Wabash has to play Witt and @ Wooster again.

Being a C candidate of course means losing in your tournament, should Wabash lose both to Witt and Woo again, they are looking at 6 losses in-region which is firmly a bubble team and their SOS as I recall isn't very good.


Bottom line for Wabash is they need to beat either Witt or Wooster to be a serious C team in all likelihood.

I'm kind of thinking that Wabash's loss last night just made their home date with Witt a must win if they want to have any chance of getting a C. 

Also, where is Cap in the discussion?  They have the same record, both overall and in-region as JCU.  Is JCU's SOS that much stronger than Cap's?

As I have it, Capital's SOS is 0.474 and JCU's is 0.584.

And JCU is 2-0 in the head to head.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Last night scores, involving 'ranked' losing teams

Calvin 81 Albion 50
OWU 87 Wabash 76


Albion's C chances are likely dead, and Wabash's took a big hit last night.

I would still say that Wabash is ok for the time being. Randolph-Macon will be a win against a regionally ranked opponent and their winning percentage is still very strong. The hardest part about prognosticating a tournament field is predicting how the committee will weight WP versus SOS. If the example of Anderson last year taught us anything, it is that Wabash's WP north of .800 should look very good to the people in power.

I think I was probably mentally taking into account that Wabash has to play Witt and @ Wooster again.

Being a C candidate of course means losing in your tournament, should Wabash lose both to Witt and Woo again, they are looking at 6 losses in-region which is firmly a bubble team and their SOS as I recall isn't very good.


Bottom line for Wabash is they need to beat either Witt or Wooster to be a serious C team in all likelihood.

I agree that they'll probably have to win against one of the other W's, but I usually don't take the conference tournament loss into account becuase everyone, except UAA, that's a Pool C also has to lose that one.

And this year the UAA is unlikely to have a Pool C candidate.

[KnightSlappy]

Last night scores, involving 'ranked' losing teams

Calvin 81 Albion 50
OWU 87 Wabash 76


Albion's C chances are likely dead, and Wabash's took a big hit last night.

I would still say that Wabash is ok for the time being. Randolph-Macon will be a win against a regionally ranked opponent and their winning percentage is still very strong. The hardest part about prognosticating a tournament field is predicting how the committee will weight WP versus SOS. If the example of Anderson last year taught us anything, it is that Wabash's WP north of .800 should look very good to the people in power.

I think I was probably mentally taking into account that Wabash has to play Witt and @ Wooster again.

Being a C candidate of course means losing in your tournament, should Wabash lose both to Witt and Woo again, they are looking at 6 losses in-region which is firmly a bubble team and their SOS as I recall isn't very good.


Bottom line for Wabash is they need to beat either Witt or Wooster to be a serious C team in all likelihood.

I agree that they'll probably have to win against one of the other W's, but I usually don't take the conference tournament loss into account becuase everyone, except UAA, that's a Pool C also has to lose that one.

And this year the UAA is unlikely to have a Pool C candidate.

Right, but I have to qualify it or else someone from Ypsilanti would instead come in and say "Nuh, uhhhh" the UAA doesn't have to lose to get a Pool C. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Last night scores, involving 'ranked' losing teams

Calvin 81 Albion 50
OWU 87 Wabash 76


Albion's C chances are likely dead, and Wabash's took a big hit last night.

I would still say that Wabash is ok for the time being. Randolph-Macon will be a win against a regionally ranked opponent and their winning percentage is still very strong. The hardest part about prognosticating a tournament field is predicting how the committee will weight WP versus SOS. If the example of Anderson last year taught us anything, it is that Wabash's WP north of .800 should look very good to the people in power.

I think I was probably mentally taking into account that Wabash has to play Witt and @ Wooster again.

Being a C candidate of course means losing in your tournament, should Wabash lose both to Witt and Woo again, they are looking at 6 losses in-region which is firmly a bubble team and their SOS as I recall isn't very good.


Bottom line for Wabash is they need to beat either Witt or Wooster to be a serious C team in all likelihood.

I agree that they'll probably have to win against one of the other W's, but I usually don't take the conference tournament loss into account becuase everyone, except UAA, that's a Pool C also has to lose that one.

And this year the UAA is unlikely to have a Pool C candidate.

Right, but I have to qualify it or else someone from Ypsilanti would instead come in and say "Nuh, uhhhh" the UAA doesn't have to lose to get a Pool C. 

Hey, now, you're mixing me up with 'it's not preseason' Greg - and he lives in Chicago, not Ypsi!

[kiltedbryan]

Last night scores, involving 'ranked' losing teams

Calvin 81 Albion 50
OWU 87 Wabash 76


Albion's C chances are likely dead, and Wabash's took a big hit last night.

I would still say that Wabash is ok for the time being. Randolph-Macon will be a win against a regionally ranked opponent and their winning percentage is still very strong. The hardest part about prognosticating a tournament field is predicting how the committee will weight WP versus SOS. If the example of Anderson last year taught us anything, it is that Wabash's WP north of .800 should look very good to the people in power.

I think I was probably mentally taking into account that Wabash has to play Witt and @ Wooster again.

Being a C candidate of course means losing in your tournament, should Wabash lose both to Witt and Woo again, they are looking at 6 losses in-region which is firmly a bubble team and their SOS as I recall isn't very good.


Bottom line for Wabash is they need to beat either Witt or Wooster to be a serious C team in all likelihood.

I'm kind of thinking that Wabash's loss last night just made their home date with Witt a must win if they want to have any chance of getting a C. 

Also, where is Cap in the discussion?  They have the same record, both overall and in-region as JCU.  Is JCU's SOS that much stronger than Cap's?

As I have it, Capital's SOS is 0.474 and JCU's is 0.584.

And JCU is 2-0 in the head to head.

John Carroll lost its sixth today at ONU. The Streaks are 13-6, 11-6 right now in region. If JCU ends up needing a Pool C bid, its best possible in-region finish is now 19-7 (.730). (Assumes 6-0 remaining regular season, 2-1 in OAC tournament.)

JCU is flirting with needing to win the OAC tourney to make the dance, I'd think.

[KnightSlappy]

I haven't dug too deep into all of the numbers and scenarios yet, but my initial guess at this week's rankings is:

1. Wooster
2. Hope
3. Wabash
4. Thiel
5. Marietta
6. PSU-Behrend

------

7. Wittenberg
8. Calvin
9. Bethany

[sac]

First column overall record/second column in-region record

1. Wooster 19-0 16-0
--------------------------------------1.000
2. Hope  14-5  10-1
--------------------------------------.900
3. Penn St.-Behrend  16-2  16-2
4. Marietta 18-2  15-2
5. Wabash  16-3  15-3
6. Thiel 13-6  13-3
7. Wittenberg  14-5   12-3
--------------------------------------.800
8. Bethany 12-5 12-5
9. Calvin 10-10  7-3
--------------------------------------.700
10. Capital 13-5  11-5
11. Thomas More 11-8 10-5
12. John Carroll 13-6  11-6
13. Adrian 10-8 6-4
--------------------------------------.600
14. Albion 9-8  6-5



Last week's key games, winners in bold

1-26  Albion at Calvin

1-29  Hope at Calvin

.....Thiel lost to Geneva on Wed. night, making their game with Bethany next week a must win.

Next week's key games
2-2   Thiel at Bethany

2-5   Wabash at Wooster
2-5   Albion at Adrian

The 3 above MIAA's not named Hope face some pretty tough games that will make or break their Pool C chances this week, Albion could win 3 games.  I'm leaving  Albion and Adrian in the mix for now, though the loser of their head-to-head is probably done for Pool C.  JCU I'm leaving in because they have a favorable schedule until their next meeting with Marietta in the last week of the season.

I added Thomas More who have strung together some wins and are now 10-5 in-region.

[sac]

I haven't dug too deep into all of the numbers and scenarios yet, but my initial guess at this week's rankings is:

1. Wooster
2. Hope
3. Wabash
4. Thiel
5. Marietta
6. PSU-Behrend

------

7. Wittenberg
8. Calvin
9. Bethany

Are you counting Thiel's loss last week?

The precedent the last couple years has been to punish the MIAA for its lower number of in-region games.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Hope at #4 or lower.  I think PSU-Behrend is ranked, but don't think Thiel will be ranked with Witt my #6 team.

[kiltedbryan]

--------------------------------------.700
10. Capital 13-5  11-5
11. Thomas More 11-8 10-5
12. John Carroll 13-6  11-6
13. Adrian 10-8 6-4

JCU should be 11-6 in-region (unless something is labeled wrong on its schedule).

[KnightSlappy]

Thiel and Wittenberg looks like a close call, but I'm taking Thiel still for this set of rankings.

Primary Criteria

Winning Percentage
Thiel 0.769
Wittenberg 0.800

Strength Of Schedule
Thiel 0.512
Wittenberg 0.469

Versus Regionally Ranked (estimated)
Thiel 1-0 (win over La Roche)
Wittenberg 1-1 (win over Wabash, loss to Wooster)

No Head to Head

Common Opponents
Both beat Washington and Jefferson (Thiel twice).
Witt beat Allegheny, Thiel Lost to Allegheny.

Secondary Criteria

D3 Winning Percentage
Thiel 0.769
Wittenberg 0.765

D3 Strength of Schedule
Thiel 0.506
Wittenberg 0.498

No Common Non-D3 Opponents

Versus All D3 Regionally Ranked (estimated)
Thiel 1-0 (win over La Roche)
Wittenberg 2-1 (win over Wabash, win over Kean, loss to Wooster)

Overall Win-Loss Percentage
Thiel 0.684
Wittenberg 0.737

[KnightSlappy]

The precedent the last couple years has been to punish the MIAA for its lower number of in-region games.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Hope at #4 or lower.  I think PSU-Behrend is ranked, but don't think Thiel will be ranked with Witt my #6 team.

I think the MIAA has been 'punished' for SOS reasons, not number of games reasons.

If Hope is ranked lower than #2 I'll don the orange and blue for the next rivalry game.

[Mr. Ypsi]

First column overall record/second column in-region record

1. Wooster 19-0 16-0
--------------------------------------1.000
2. Hope  14-5  10-1
--------------------------------------.900
3. Penn St.-Behrend  16-2  16-2
4. Marietta 18-2  15-2
5. Wabash  16-3  15-3
6. Thiel 13-6  13-3
7. Wittenberg  14-5   12-3
--------------------------------------.800
8. Bethany 12-5 12-5
9. Calvin 10-10  7-3
--------------------------------------.700
10. Capital 13-5  11-5
11. Thomas More 11-8 10-5
12. John Carroll 13-6  10-6
13. Adrian 10-8 6-4
--------------------------------------.600
14. Albion 9-8  6-5



Last week's key games, winners in bold

1-26  Albion at Calvin

1-29  Hope at Calvin

.....Thiel lost to Geneva on Wed. night, making their game with Bethany next week a must win.

Next week's key games
2-2   Bethany at Thiel

2-5   Wabash at Wooster
2-5   Albion at Adrian

The 3 above MIAA's not named Hope face some pretty tough games that will make or break their Pool C chances this week, Albion could win 3 games.  I'm leaving  Albion and Adrian in the mix for now, though the loser of their head-to-head is probably done for Pool C.  JCU I'm leaving in because they have a favorable schedule until their next meeting with Marietta in the last week of the season.

I added Thomas More who have strung together some wins and are now 10-5 in-region.

According to the d3hoops.com schedule it is Thiel @ Bethany.  Did they get it backwards?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Nevermind.  Both the Bethany and Thiel websites confirm that it is Thiel @ Bethany.