Great Lakes Region

[KnightSlappy]

You were spot on, Slappy.  You've got your finger on the pulse of these rankings.  I thought Wabash might slip to #4 in these rankings this week, but clearly Wabash's three wins over regionally ranked teams (vs. zero for Marietta) is carrying significant weight.  That, and Wabash's sizeable SOS advantage. 

I used last week's ratings to formulate an equation that does a decent job of predicting the rankings across the regions. Not perfect, but usually most of the teams are in there in approximately the right place. Not bad for not doing any sort of head to head or common opponent adjustment.

Basically it's:
.45 x WP + 0.50 x SOS + 0.001 x (# of regionally ranked games played) + .005 x (WP vs. regionally ranked) + .05 x (RPI including all D3 games)

could be tweaked a bit, but I like it so far.

This equation ranks the GL like this for this week:

1. Wooster
2. Hope
3. Wabash
4. Marietta
5. Thiel
6. PSU-Behrend
--------
7. Wittenberg
8. JCU
9. Calvin

[pennstghs]

I guess Wittenberg has to do a little more to "impress" the voters. Not quite sure how a 4 loss in conference team can be ranked 3rd in the region but who knows.

[wally_wabash]

I guess Wittenberg has to do a little more to "impress" the voters. Not quite sure how a 4 loss in conference team can be ranked 3rd in the region but who knows.

Because there are a dozen other games outside of league play that also count.

[sac]

--------------------------------------.700
8. John Carroll 15-6  13-6
8. Bethany 13-6 13-6
10. Capital 14-6  12-6
11. Calvin 11-11  8-4

All 4 of these teams need to win out and reach the semi-finals of their respective conference tournaments to get above the .700 threshold.

--------------------------------------.600
12. Olivet 11-10 7-5
13. Albion 12-9  8-6
14. Adrian 10-10 6-6

These 3 teams cannot reach .700 without winning their conference tournament (which would make them Pool A)......all 3 would need to reach the conference Championship to have any Pool C prayer and it would be slim for each of them at best.  (Olivet would be .684 win%, and I assume a pretty strong RPI)


All the teams above .800 could lose 2 games and still remain above the .700 mark (including 1 loss in their conference tournament.)

Calvin lost to Adrian tonight, the best in-region W% they can finish with is .684 and a 13-6 record.  Firmly a bubble team and a tough tournament ahead of them.

Albion lost to Trine tonight and already could not finish above .700, their Pool C chances are now dead.  Best possible W% is .619 with 13-8 record

Olivet lost to Hope tonight, the best in-region W% they can finish with is .632 and a 12-7 record.  About 1,000,000 things would have to go perfect for Olivet to make it as a Pool C team, their SOS is their only saving grace.

Even with the win, Adrian's best possible W% is .632 and 12-7.  Like Olivet only without the strong SOS.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Or, to simplify about the MIAA tourney, Hope would still be a viable C candidate.  The rest of the MIAA is 'win or go home'.

[sac]

Or, to simplify about the MIAA tourney, Hope would still be a viable C candidate.  The rest of the MIAA is 'win or go home'.

Pretty much

[sac]

--------------------------------------.700
8. John Carroll 15-6  13-6
8. Bethany 13-6 13-6
10. Capital 14-6  12-6
11. Calvin 11-11  8-4

Otterebein beat Capital tonight 82-58, Capital's pool C chances are now probably dead.  Best possible W% is .680 and that's with a 17-8 in-region record.  I don't believe more than 7 losses has ever been selected as a Pool C team.


Thiel and Bethany both won tonight.

[sac]

First column overall record/second column in-region record

1. Hope  18-5  14-1
2. Marietta 22-2  19-2
3. Wooster 21-2 18-2
4. Penn St.-Behrend  20-2  18-2
--------------------------------------.900
5. Thiel 17-6  17-3
6. Wittenberg  17-5   15-3
--------------------------------------.800
7. Wabash  18-5  17-5
8. Bethany 15-6 15-6
--------------------------------------.700
9. John Carroll 16-7  14-7
10. Calvin 12-12  9-5
--------------------------------------.600



Last week's key games, winners in bold

2-9  Olivet @ Hope
2-9  Calvin @ Adrian

2-12  Hope @ Adrian
2-12   Wooster @ Wittenberg

Next Week's key games

2/16  Wittenberg @ Wabash  (for Pool C purposes, a must win for both)
2/16  Marietta @ Capital

2/19  Marietta @ John Carroll


A lot of carnage in the GL last week, in the OAC Capital lost twice and JCU picked up another loss effectively ending Pool C chances for Capital and making them very slim for JCU.  More importantly though, those losses combined with Marietta's wins mean Marietta clinches the OAC regular season championship.  This is Marietta's first basketball title since 1975, not bad for a team that finished tied for 8th in the OAC last year.

Wittenberg took the lead in the NCAC handing Wooster its 2nd in-region loss.  Wabash dropped a game to Hiram.  Wabash is now firmly a bubble team. 

In the MIAA, Albion, Olivet, Adrian and Calvin all took at least one loss officially ending Pool C hopes for all of them although Calvin's still hold by a thread.

Thiel has just 1 games left and has won the Presidents Athletic Conference Championship.

PSU-Behrend remains 1 game back of LaRoche in the AMCC.


For the purposes of this list  Capital, Albion, Olivet and Adrian drop off.  All can only make the NCAA through their respective conference tournament AQ's.  I'm leaving JCU and Calvin in the list, because their best possible win% is close enough to .700 that they might still have slim hopes.

We're pretty close to calling Wooster, Hope and Marietta Pool C locks if not already, one win this week would probably make that so for sure.  PSU-Behrend's schedule is the only thing keeping it from being a lock imo.

[sac]

First column overall record/second column in-region record

4. Penn St.-Behrend  20-2  18-2
--------------------------------------.900
5. Thiel 17-6  17-3
6. Wittenberg  17-5   15-3
--------------------------------------.800
7. Wabash  18-5  17-5

Thiel is actually in good shape as a 'C' candidate W% wise, but I don't think the PrAC has ever had a 2nd team make the tournament, and I'm sure their SOS isn't very good compared to the other GL region teams.

Wittenberg is in good shape even with a loss to Wabash this week, though I wouldn't recommend it, that win over Wooster may have catapulted them into the NCAA tournament.  I think 2 wins this week would make them a strong 'C' candidate.

Wabash could use a win over Witt to boost their W%, they actually aren't in terrble shape, even with a loss to Witt their best possible W% as a C candidate is still over .740.

[wally_wabash]

Question for those a little more savvy with the Pool C watch than I...

I'm thinking that Wabash is going to need four more wins to get invited.  The last two regular season games (vs. Witt on Wednesday most notably) and then two wins in the league tournament, one of which will have to be on the home court of either Wittenberg or Wooster depending on who gets the top seed in the NCAC.  The question is, do you think Wabash needs all four of those wins, or could three wins be enough provided one of those wins is against a regionally ranked team (which would give Wabash four wins over RR'd teams)?

Getting picked off by Hiram was a killer.  Wabash was pretty safe until then. 

[sac]

Question for those a little more savvy with the Pool C watch than I...

I'm thinking that Wabash is going to need four more wins to get invited.  The last two regular season games (vs. Witt on Wednesday most notably) and then two wins in the league tournament, one of which will have to be on the home court of either Wittenberg or Wooster depending on who gets the top seed in the NCAC.  The question is, do you think Wabash needs all four of those wins, or could three wins be enough provided one of those wins is against a regionally ranked team (which would give Wabash four wins over RR'd teams)?

Getting picked off by Hiram was a killer.  Wabash was pretty safe until then. 

General rule of thumb I follow is you're safest if you make your conference Championship game if you need a Pool C bid.

Semi-final losses generally mean an end to the season except for the 'lock' teams.


Wabash is 16-5 in-region, 2 wins next week, and losing in the semi's puts them at 19-6.  or .760, that's not terrible.

Making the Championship game makes it 20-6 or .769.  Not a big difference between the two.

Losing to Witt this week and same above scenario's.....

lose in semi's = .720

lose in championship game = .731


Being a Pool C of course means you are at the mercy of what teams receive an AQ bid.  What it takes to get a C bid changes each year based on how many 'upsets' occur in the Championship games of other tournaments.  Making the Championship game and beating a regionally ranked team would surely benefit Wabash.

[ziggy]

Question for those a little more savvy with the Pool C watch than I...

I'm thinking that Wabash is going to need four more wins to get invited.  The last two regular season games (vs. Witt on Wednesday most notably) and then two wins in the league tournament, one of which will have to be on the home court of either Wittenberg or Wooster depending on who gets the top seed in the NCAC.  The question is, do you think Wabash needs all four of those wins, or could three wins be enough provided one of those wins is against a regionally ranked team (which would give Wabash four wins over RR'd teams)?

Getting picked off by Hiram was a killer.  Wabash was pretty safe until then. 

Wabash will be fine as long as they don't lose to any more teams they should beat. A mid-.700s WP makes for a legitimate resume and their SOS number suggests that their strong WP is not a result of a weak schedule, as does their 3-2 record versus regionally ranked.

The bottom end of the GL rankings have thinned out to the point that I firmly believe that Wabash will get their chance on the board when it comes to Pool C selection time and I don't see a glaring deficiency in their measurable criteria. Wabash should look good when the committee gets to the middle Pool C selections.

[KnightSlappy]

A guess at this week's rankings.

1. Wooster
2. Hope

These will be your top two. Hope's got a decent shot at the #1 ranking, but I think Wooster's still got it due to being 3-2 versus regionally ranked teams (versus 0-0 for Hope).

3. Marietta
4. Wittenberg
5. Thiel

This group is pretty tight. You could make a legit case for any order. In the end, I think it will be 'Etta's sexy 0.900 WP that gives them the nod. Thiel leads in SOS, Marietta leads in WP, and Witt (likely) leads in games versus regionally ranked.

6. Wabash
----------------------
7. Penn State-Behrend

The next tier looks like Wabash and Behrend. I'd give the spot to Wabash, but you never know what the committee will do. These are the matchups where the committee will tell us how serious they are about SOS. PSU-B's SOS is piss poor (in the bottom 8% of D3).

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Week 3 Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/16/ncaa-2011-regional-rankings-week-3/

[ziggy]

A guess at this week's rankings.

1. Wooster
2. Hope

These will be your top two. Hope's got a decent shot at the #1 ranking, but I think Wooster's still got it due to being 3-2 versus regionally ranked teams (versus 0-0 for Hope).

3. Marietta
4. Wittenberg
5. Thiel

This group is pretty tight. You could make a legit case for any order. In the end, I think it will be 'Etta's sexy 0.900 WP that gives them the nod. Thiel leads in SOS, Marietta leads in WP, and Witt (likely) leads in games versus regionally ranked.

6. Wabash
----------------------
7. Penn State-Behrend

The next tier looks like Wabash and Behrend. I'd give the spot to Wabash, but you never know what the committee will do. These are the matchups where the committee will tell us how serious they are about SOS. PSU-B's SOS is piss poor (in the bottom 8% of D3).

The NCAA is apparently willing to virtually disregard SOS...