Great Lakes Region

[KnightSlappy]

My crazy-fangled formula now gives:

1. Wooster
2. Hope
3. PSU-B
4. Thiel
5. Wabash
6. Wittenberg
-----
7. Marietta

Next best rated team would be Bethany, but they're a long way away.

3 through 6 above are relatively close, so the order isn't guaranteed. They all seem to be in Pool C range at the moment. Marietta would be on the bubble.

[ScotsFan]

I just had a scary thought looking at your updated rankings ks. Is there any chance that the AMCC gets TWO teams in the tournament?        If ever there was a conference that was so undeserving of getting an at large bid, I would have to say the AMCC would be at or near the top of the list.  Yet, because LaRoche and PSU-B are both regionally ranked in different regions, is it a possiblity that one gets a C if they happen to both win out up until the AMCC championship game?  God I hope not?! 

[KnightSlappy]

I just had a scary thought looking at your updated rankings ks. Is there any chance that the AMCC gets TWO teams in the tournament?        If ever there was a conference that was so undeserving of getting an at large bid, I would have to say the AMCC would be at or near the top of the list.  Yet, because LaRoche and PSU-B are both regionally ranked in different regions, is it a possiblity that one gets a C if they happen to both win out up until the AMCC championship game?  God I hope not?! 

Yep. If the season ended today, I think they'd get two teams in.

It's sad, but that's what happens when the NCAA continually rewards teams with good winning percentages but poor SOS.

[ziggy]

I just had a scary thought looking at your updated rankings ks. Is there any chance that the AMCC gets TWO teams in the tournament?       If ever there was a conference that was so undeserving of getting an at large bid, I would have to say the AMCC would be at or near the top of the list.  Yet, because LaRoche and PSU-B are both regionally ranked in different regions, is it a possiblity that one gets a C if they happen to both win out up until the AMCC championship game?  God I hope not?!  

Yep. If the season ended today, I think they'd get two teams in.

It's sad, but that's what happens when the NCAA continually rewards teams with good winning percentages but poor SOS.

The possibility of an AMCC team reaching the board for consideration looks good from where we sit now but it remains to be seen what their chances of actually being picked for a Pool C will be considering they are handed out Nationally. Rather than leading to a second AMCC team in the tournament, it could lead to an under-representation of Great Lakes teams in the tournament as Pool C candidates from other regions are selected instead.

Best case scenario is that Calvin wins the MIAA tournament since Hope is (or is nearly) a Pool C lock. 

[KnightSlappy]

For the past two seasons that I've been following the rankings closely, the NCAA seem to generally weigh SOS and WP 50-50 against each other. That seems OK at a glance, but the raw numbers don't tell the whole story.

The total difference between the best and worst WP is currently 0.958 (but it's theoretically possible to get 1.000).
The total difference between the best and worst SOS is currently (according to my records) is 0.236 (.618 to 0.383).

It's not possible to get SOS numbers that are either extremely high or extremely low.

So, by weighing the raw numbers equally against each other, you're really weighing WP four times more (because there's four times as much variability in the numbers).

That's why RPI gives the SOS number three times as much weight as the WP number. To try to counterbalance some of that.

[sac]

I just had a scary thought looking at your updated rankings ks. Is there any chance that the AMCC gets TWO teams in the tournament?        If ever there was a conference that was so undeserving of getting an at large bid, I would have to say the AMCC would be at or near the top of the list.  Yet, because LaRoche and PSU-B are both regionally ranked in different regions, is it a possiblity that one gets a C if they happen to both win out up until the AMCC championship game?  God I hope not?! 

Don't forget at least one of those two will pick up another loss in their tournament, that could be enough to keep either team out with their schedules.

[KnightSlappy]

I just had a scary thought looking at your updated rankings ks. Is there any chance that the AMCC gets TWO teams in the tournament?       If ever there was a conference that was so undeserving of getting an at large bid, I would have to say the AMCC would be at or near the top of the list.  Yet, because LaRoche and PSU-B are both regionally ranked in different regions, is it a possiblity that one gets a C if they happen to both win out up until the AMCC championship game?  God I hope not?!  

Yep. If the season ended today, I think they'd get two teams in.

It's sad, but that's what happens when the NCAA continually rewards teams with good winning percentages but poor SOS.

The possibility of an AMCC team reaching the board for consideration looks good from where we sit now but it remains to be seen what their chances of actually being picked for a Pool C will be considering they are handed out Nationally. Rather than leading to a second AMCC team in the tournament, it could lead to an under-representation of Great Lakes teams in the tournament as Pool C candidates from other regions are selected instead.

Best case scenario is that Calvin wins the MIAA tournament since Hope is (or is nearly) a Pool C lock. 

I changed my spreadsheet to rank the regions according to my best fit equation (on the previous page). Applying this to the selection process gives La Roche the Pool A and PSU-Behrend the #8 Pool C bid.

Sad.

[KnightSlappy]

I just had a scary thought looking at your updated rankings ks. Is there any chance that the AMCC gets TWO teams in the tournament?        If ever there was a conference that was so undeserving of getting an at large bid, I would have to say the AMCC would be at or near the top of the list.  Yet, because LaRoche and PSU-B are both regionally ranked in different regions, is it a possiblity that one gets a C if they happen to both win out up until the AMCC championship game?  God I hope not?! 

Don't forget at least one of those two will pick up another loss in their tournament, that could be enough to keep either team out with their schedules.

But it will probably be to a regionally ranked team, so it may not hurt all that much. I hate when conference are split across regions. It seems like it gives more opportunity for teams to become regionally ranked.

[kiltedbryan]

For the past two seasons that I've been following the rankings closely, the NCAA seem to generally weigh SOS and WP 50-50 against each other. That seems OK at a glance, but the raw numbers don't tell the whole story.

The total difference between the best and worst WP is currently 0.958 (but it's theoretically possible to get 1.000).
The total difference between the best and worst SOS is currently (according to my records) is 0.236 (.618 to 0.383).

It's not possible to get SOS numbers that are either extremely high or extremely low.

So, by weighing the raw numbers equally against each other, you're really weighing WP four times more (because there's four times as much variability in the numbers).

That's why RPI gives the SOS number three times as much weight as the WP number. To try to counterbalance some of that.

KS- thanks for the breakdown on this! It really feels like the NCAA folks are playing with numbers and indicators that they really just don't fully understand. Between this over-reliance on WP and the home/away multipliers--it seems to be a continual story of using good data to produce incorrect interpretations.

[sac]

I just had a scary thought looking at your updated rankings ks. Is there any chance that the AMCC gets TWO teams in the tournament?        If ever there was a conference that was so undeserving of getting an at large bid, I would have to say the AMCC would be at or near the top of the list.  Yet, because LaRoche and PSU-B are both regionally ranked in different regions, is it a possiblity that one gets a C if they happen to both win out up until the AMCC championship game?  God I hope not?! 

Don't forget at least one of those two will pick up another loss in their tournament, that could be enough to keep either team out with their schedules.

But it will probably be to a regionally ranked team, so it may not hurt all that much. I hate when conference are split across regions. It seems like it gives more opportunity for teams to become regionally ranked.

Yes it does.  In most years see the UAA, and even this year I think you can raise an eyebrow toward Brandeis, proably not ranked if the whole UAA were in 1 region.

[ScotsFan]

I just had a scary thought looking at your updated rankings ks. Is there any chance that the AMCC gets TWO teams in the tournament?        If ever there was a conference that was so undeserving of getting an at large bid, I would have to say the AMCC would be at or near the top of the list.  Yet, because LaRoche and PSU-B are both regionally ranked in different regions, is it a possiblity that one gets a C if they happen to both win out up until the AMCC championship game?  God I hope not?! 

Yep. If the season ended today, I think they'd get two teams in.

It's sad, but that's what happens when the NCAA continually rewards teams with good winning percentages but poor SOS.

This will really rub me the wrong way if, say Wooster wins the automatic from the NCAC.  I would consider both Wabash and Witt as better Pool C candidates than either Behrend or LaRoche.  But, there is the distinct possiblity that one of Witt or Wabash would be staying home while the less deserving AMCC team would more than likely take their bid. 

I guess I have to hope for at least one of them to lose before the AMCC finals. 

[ziggy]

I just had a scary thought looking at your updated rankings ks. Is there any chance that the AMCC gets TWO teams in the tournament?        If ever there was a conference that was so undeserving of getting an at large bid, I would have to say the AMCC would be at or near the top of the list.  Yet, because LaRoche and PSU-B are both regionally ranked in different regions, is it a possiblity that one gets a C if they happen to both win out up until the AMCC championship game?  God I hope not?! 

Yep. If the season ended today, I think they'd get two teams in.

It's sad, but that's what happens when the NCAA continually rewards teams with good winning percentages but poor SOS.

This will really rub me the wrong way if, say Wooster wins the automatic from the NCAC.  I would consider both Wabash and Witt as better Pool C candidates than either Behrend or LaRoche.  But, there is the distinct possiblity that one of Witt or Wabash would be staying home while the less deserving AMCC team would more than likely take their bid. 

I guess I have to hope for at least one of them to lose before the AMCC finals. 

The thing is, you never really know. I really thought that it was a shame that the HCAC got a second team in and that they wouldn't be competitive in the tournament. Didn't happen, Anderson ended up beating St. Thomas in the first round and Defiance nearly took out UW-Whitewater. Sometimes there are teams that end up being more deserving afterall.

[Pat Coleman]

Indeed -- everyone gets new life in the tournament and sometimes a team that comes in on a roll but is less recognized can be really dangerous.

[ScotsFan]

Yes, but the AMCC has traditionally never fared well in the tournament.  I'm not so inclined to think LaRoche or Behrend will reverse that trend.

[sac]

First column overall record/second column in-region record



1. Wooster 23-2 20-2
--------------------------------------.900
2. Hope  19-6  15-2
3. Marietta 23-3  20-3
3. Penn St.-Behrend  22-3  20-3
5. Thiel 18-6  18-3
--------------------------------------.800
6. Wabash  20-5  19-5
7. Wittenberg  17-7   15-5
--------------------------------------.700
8. Bethany 16-7 16-7
9. Calvin 14-12  11-5
10. John Carroll 17-8  15-8

--------------------------------------.600



Last week's key games, winners in bold

2/16  Wittenberg @ Wabash  (for Pool C purposes, a must win for both)
2/16  Marietta @ Capital

2/19  Marietta @ John Carroll



PSU-Behrend.....I have an issue with Behrend, d3hoops is listing all 25 of its games as in-region, I was sure Franciscan games didn't count.  For now I'm listing them as 20-3 in-region.   Also I've had their record wrong for 2 weeks and have corrected the missing loss.


Knightslappy is considering Wooster and Hope 'cold-hard-lead pipe locks' for the tournament so we'll go with that.  Although I could see Hope running into trouble if they were to lose in the semi-finals at home to either just barely above .500 Olivet or Adrian. 

Marietta was a missed shot away from dropping two this week, despite the solid overall record their potential downfall might be a weak SOS/RPI.  They needed that win today to be safe.  They go into the OAC tournament as the top seed having just lost to #3 seed Capital, and beating #2 JCU at the buzzer.


PSU-Behrend and Thiel both did what they had to do this week, I'm really rooting for both of these to win their respective conference tournaments so they can stay out of the Pool C mix.

Wabash was the big winner of the week beating Witt and then Witt getting beat again.   Wabash has at least given themselves a good chance......then pray their aren't a lot of upsets.

Wittenberg went from solid Pool C to bubble team in 4 days, they really need to get to the NCAC final now to have a shot.