Great Lakes Region

[KnightSlappy]

Franciscan is a year 4 provisional, so all of their games DO count for regional purposes (3rd and 4th year teams are counted).

[KnightSlappy]

First column overall record/second column in-region record

1. Wooster 23-2 20-2
--------------------------------------.900
2. Hope  19-6  15-2
3. Marietta 23-3  20-3
3. Penn St.-Behrend  22-3  20-3
5. Thiel 18-6  18-3
--------------------------------------.800
6. Wabash  20-5  19-5
7. Wittenberg  17-7   15-5
--------------------------------------.700
8. Bethany 16-7 16-7
9. Calvin 14-12  11-5
10. John Carroll 17-8  15-8

--------------------------------------.600



Last week's key games, winners in bold

2/16  Wittenberg @ Wabash  (for Pool C purposes, a must win for both)
2/16  Marietta @ Capital

2/19  Marietta @ John Carroll



PSU-Behrend.....I have an issue with Behrend, d3hoops is listing all 25 of its games as in-region, I was sure Franciscan games didn't count.  For now I'm listing them as 20-3 in-region.   Also I've had their record wrong for 2 weeks and have corrected the missing loss.


Knightslappy is considering Wooster and Hope 'cold-hard-lead pipe locks' for the tournament so we'll go with that.  Although I could see Hope running into trouble if they were to lose in the semi-finals at home to either just barely above .500 Olivet or Adrian. 

Marietta was a missed shot away from dropping two this week, despite the solid overall record their potential downfall might be a weak SOS/RPI.  They needed that win today to be safe.  They go into the OAC tournament as the top seed having just lost to #3 seed Capital, and beating #2 JCU at the buzzer.


PSU-Behrend and Thiel both did what they had to do this week, I'm really rooting for both of these to win their respective conference tournaments so they can stay out of the Pool C mix.

Wabash was the big winner of the week beating Witt and then Witt getting beat again.   Wabash has at least given themselves a good chance......then pray their aren't a lot of upsets.

Wittenberg went from solid Pool C to bubble team in 4 days, they really need to get to the NCAC final now to have a shot.

I agree with these assessments.

Witt's Pool C chances may have evaporated. They'll at least need to get to the NCAC finals, but even then, they'll need to hope for few to no upsets around the country. I currently have them as the last team out.

Hope is a team that I feel pretty confident about, but you're right, some funky things could go on with their SOS if they were to lose in the semis. They're on the edge of the locks, but we're still talking locks here. These are the teams that I more or less think would get in if ALL the leagues had upsets.

[sac]

Here's all the Great Lakes Region Tournaments, including the AMCC



Northcoast
Tuesday, Feb. 22                 
#8 Allegheny at #1 Wooster, 7:30                  
#7 Denison at #2 Wittenberg, 7:30         
#6 Kenyon at #3 Wabash, 7:30                     
#5 Hiram at #4 Ohio Wesleyan, 6:00


Friday, Feb. 25
at highest remaining seed after quarters
6:00/8:00 with top seed in later slot    

Saturday, Feb. 26     
7:00 at semifinal site



Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association
First Round - Wednesday, February 23
#8 Alma (2-12, 6-18) at #1 Hope (12-2, 19-6), 7:30 p.m.
#7 Trine (4-10, 12-13) at #2 Calvin (9-5, 14-11), 7:30 p.m.
#6 Kalamazoo (6-8, 9-16) at #3 Albion (8-6, 14-11), 7:30 p.m.
#5 Adrian (7-7, 12-12) at #4 Olivet (8-6, 13-12), 7:30 p.m.

Semifinals - Friday, February 25
At highest seed, 6 p.m. and 8:15 p.m.

Championship - Saturday, February 26
At Friday site, 7:30 p.m.



Ohio Athletic Conference
Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2011

Game 1: #8 Wilmington at #1 Marietta College • 7:30 p.m.
Game 2: #7 Mount Union at #2 John Carroll • 7:30 p.m.
Game 3: #6 Otterbein at #3 Capital • 7:30 p.m.
Game 4: #5 Heidelberg at #4 Ohio Northern • 8 p.m.

OAC Semifinals: Thursday, Feb. 24, 2011 • All Game Times TBA
Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner at Higher Seed
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner at Higher Seed

OAC Finals: Saturday, Feb. 26, 2011 • 7:30 p.m.
Game 7: Lowest Remaining Seed at Highest Remaining Seed



Presidents Athletic Conference
First Round - Tuesday, February 22, 2011

#8 Waynesburg at #1 Thiel - 7 p.m.
#5 Thomas More at #4 W&J - 7 p.m.
#7 Grove City at #2 Saint Vincent - 8 p.m.
#6 Westminster at #3 Bethany - 8 p.m.

Semifinals - Thursday, February 24, 2011
Lowest seed at highest seed - 7 p.m.
Middle remaining seeds (at higher seed) - 7 p.m.

Finals - Saturday, February 26, 2011
at highest remaining seed - 7:30 p.m.



AMCC
First Round - Tuesday, Feb. 22 - 7p
#5 Mount Aloysius at #4 Hilbert
#6 Pitt-Bradford at #3 Medaille

Semifinals - Friday, Feb. 25
Hosted by La Roche
1p: Winner of 4v5 vs. #1La Roche
3p: Winner of 3v6 vs. #2 PS-Behrend

[WAlum]

Thanks sac.  Great work!   

[sac]

Here's all the Great Lakes Region Tournaments with results and pairings........updated as the finals come in.



Northcoast
Tuesday, Feb. 22                 
#8 Allegheny 57 at #1 Wooster 62                
#7 Denison 63 at #2 Wittenberg 77         
#6 Kenyon 61 at #3 Wabash 72                    
#5 Hiram 85 at #4 Ohio Wesleyan 100


Friday, Feb. 25
at Wooster
#3 Wabash vs #2 Wittenberg, 6pm
#4 Ohio Wesleyan vs #1 Wooster, 8pm
   

Saturday, Feb. 26     
7:00 at Wooster



Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association
First Round - Wednesday, February 23
#8 Alma (2-12, 6-18) at #1 Hope (12-2, 19-6), 7:30 p.m.
#7 Trine (4-10, 12-13) at #2 Calvin (9-5, 14-11), 7:30 p.m.
#6 Kalamazoo (6-8, 9-16) at #3 Albion (8-6, 14-11), 7:30 p.m.
#5 Adrian (7-7, 12-12) at #4 Olivet (8-6, 13-12), 7:30 p.m.

Semifinals - Friday, February 25
At highest seed, 6 p.m. and 8:15 p.m.

Championship - Saturday, February 26
At Friday site, 7:30 p.m.



Ohio Athletic Conference
Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2011

Game 1: #8 Wilmington 73 at #1 Marietta College 84
Game 2: #7 Mount Union 68 at #2 John Carroll 75
Game 3: #6 Otterbein 47 at #3 Capital 76
Game 4: #5 Heidelberg 80 at #4 Ohio Northern 77  2OT

OAC Semifinals: Thursday, Feb. 24, 2011 • All Game Times TBA
Game 5: #5 Heidelberg at #1 Marietta
Game 6: #3 Capital at #2 John Carroll

OAC Finals: Saturday, Feb. 26, 2011 • 7:30 p.m.
Game 7: Lowest Remaining Seed at Highest Remaining Seed



Presidents Athletic Conference
First Round - Tuesday, February 22, 2011

#8 Waynesburg 53 at #1 Thiel 73
#5 Thomas More 58 at #4 W&J 57
#7 Grove City 54 at #2 Saint Vincent 72
#6 Westminster 58 at #3 Bethany 90

Semifinals - Thursday, February 24, 2011
#5 Thomas More at #1 Thiel 7 p.m.
#3 Bethany at #2 Saint Vencent 7 p.m.

Finals - Saturday, February 26, 2011
at highest remaining seed - 7:30 p.m.



AMCC
First Round - Tuesday, Feb. 22 - 7p
#5 Mount Aloysius 60 at #4 Hilbert 102
#6 Pitt-Bradford 85 at #3 Medaille 97

Semifinals - Friday, Feb. 25
Hosted by La Roche
1p: #4 Hilbert  vs. #1 La Roche
3p: #3 Medaile vs #2 PSU-Behrend

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Final Regional Rankings are out before Selection Sunday: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/category/ncaa-stuff/regional-rankings/

[ziggy]

We've got issues.

Hope's and Marietta's numbers appear right but there is no justification for Marietta's jump above the Dutchmen. Hope has the slightly better WP with a much better weighted SOS and neither team has any results against regionally ranked opponents.

The NCAA is neglecting to count a PSU-Behrend loss thus making their WP look better than it actually is. In reality, their WP is nearly identical to Hope but with a weighted SOS even worse than Marietta's. PSU-B is 3-2 versus regionally ranked, however, but I can't help but think they are getting more credit than they deserve due to the WP error.

[wally_wabash]

The rankings don't account for last night's results...this list was out of date before it even hit the street.   

[ziggy]

The rankings don't account for last night's results...this list was out of date before it even hit the street.  

Understood, the issues I stated above are all in reference to games through 2/20

[KnightSlappy]

The NCAA is neglecting to count a PSU-Behrend loss thus making their WP look better than it actually is. In reality, their WP is nearly identical to Hope but with a weighted SOS even worse than Marietta's. PSU-B is 3-2 versus regionally ranked, however, but I can't help but think they are getting more credit than they deserve due to the WP error.

I'm not sure their game versus Clark should be counted as in-region. Clark is 499 miles away, in the NE region, and Admin region 1. This may be incorrect on my sheet and D3hoops.com.

[wally_wabash]

I know this forum kind of looks down on PSU-B, but three wins vs. regionally ranked teams vs. zero for Hope is significant.  The math will tell you that Behrend's schedule is awful, but somewhere in that awful schedule they've played, and beaten, some regionally ranked teams.  Those results have to matter, don't they?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I will check the game against Clark in our system... thank you.

As for the answer... I don't have one... but there is a chance they went to secondary criteria for these two teams for whatever reason the committee chose.

If that was case, consider these parameters:
Out-of-region head-to-head competition.
Overall Division III win-loss percentage.
Results versus common non Division III opponents.
Results versus all Division III ranked teams.
Overall win-loss percentage.
Results versus all common opponents.
Overall DIII strength of schedule.

wally... PSB's results against regional ranked opponents would out-weigh in some cases those who haven't played any games against regionally ranked teams... you are correct.

[ziggy]

I will check the game against Clark in our system... thank you.

As for the answer... I don't have one... but there is a chance they went to secondary criteria for these two teams for whatever reason the committee chose.

If that was case, consider these parameters:
Out-of-region head-to-head competition.
Overall Division III win-loss percentage.
Results versus common non Division III opponents.
Results versus all Division III ranked teams.
Overall win-loss percentage.
Results versus all common opponents.
Overall DIII strength of schedule.

wally... PSB's results against regional ranked opponents would out-weigh in some cases those who haven't played any games against regionally ranked teams... you are correct.

I'm quite familiar with the primary and secondary criteria.

I suppose you could say that Hope and Marietta are completely deadlocked in the primary criteria except for the wSOS. That point is a blowout in Hope's favor (0.518 vs. 0.470). To put it in perspective, Hope's wSOS is about 70th percentile(ish) while Marietta's is 25th(ish). That is a big difference.

Secondary is secondary for a reason. I would have to see a really compelling reason in the secondary criteria to accept Marietta over Hope but there isn't one.

[ziggy]

I know this forum kind of looks down on PSU-B, but three wins vs. regionally ranked teams vs. zero for Hope is significant.  The math will tell you that Behrend's schedule is awful, but somewhere in that awful schedule they've played, and beaten, some regionally ranked teams.  Those results have to matter, don't they?

You're right, however...

Hope hasn't played a regionally ranked team but their wSOS will tell you that Hope has played, and beaten, some good teams.

wSOS and results versus regionally ranked essentially have the same aim: to differentiate between similar looking WPs. I suppose it comes down to personal preference. Hope has played a better overall schedule (objective) while PSU-B has played five "tough" games (subjective).

[sac]

I know this forum kind of looks down on PSU-B, but three wins vs. regionally ranked teams vs. zero for Hope is significant.  The math will tell you that Behrend's schedule is awful, but somewhere in that awful schedule they've played, and beaten, some regionally ranked teams.  Those results have to matter, don't they?

LaRoche is one of those regionally ranked teams and somehow they've managed to play a schedule worse than PSU-B's according to massey.  One of the others is Medaille who also managed to play a schedule ranked worse than PSU-B's.

#372, #373 and #374


The term "regionally ranked" means nothing when the quality of play from one region to another is so drastically different.

It's also another example of what a big advantage some regions have over others because they get to rank more teams, PSU-B gets an advantage by being in the GL's and not the mid-atlantic like most of the rest of its conference.  The mid-atlantic gets to rank 9 teams, the Great Lakes 6.  Chances are really good if the Great Lakes ranked 9 we'd have multiple MIAA teams that would have been ranked.  Calvin, Albion, Adrian and even Olivet were all in a position to be ranked if this region went that deep to rank teams.  That's a lot of wins in the regionally ranked category Hope doesn't get credit for vs teams of similar ability(and probably better), all because the GL can't rank more than 6 teams.

To top it off PSU-B has the added advantage of playing in a conference with teams in 3 different regions.   I doubt Medaille would be ranked in the Middle Atlantic and would not be ranked in the Great Lakes either.