Great Lakes Region

[smedindy]

The only bad loss for Wabash was the loss to Denison. That's the killer. Losing to DPU at home was bad but then we stole it back from them there.

But that Denison loss, that's gonna sting.

[sac]

3-5 since starting 12-1 though.

[KnightSlappy]

Thanks to a terrific start, and every other candidate for the 5th-6th spot in the GL losing this weekend (John Carroll, Thiel, Adrian, Marietta), the Little Giants will almost surely be ranked when the official list comes out on Wed.

I'd guess:

1   Hope
2   Wittenberg
3   Wooster
4   Ohio Wesleyan
5   Bethany
6   Wabash

Bethany/Wabash could flip-flop, but I like the other 4.

I have the next three as Thiel, Capital, and John Carroll.

[smedindy]

3-5 since starting 12-1 though.

Tough league though. The NCAC this year is a Big 10 meat grinder, and you couldn't say that in years past.

Gotta win, though. Just saying it's not a 'collapse' but a pretty good team playing other pretty good teams in a pretty good league. There will be blood. And Witt is drinking your milkshake.

[Mr. Ypsi]

3-5 since starting 12-1 though.

Tough league though. The NCAC this year is a Big 10 meat grinder, and you couldn't say that in years past.

Gotta win, though. Just saying it's not a 'collapse' but a pretty good team playing other pretty good teams in a pretty good league. There will be blood. And Witt is drinking your milkshake.

Agreed.  After years and years of being Woo and Witt and (maybe) another guy, I think you are at least on the fringes of joining the elite.

Now if only the MIAA could do the same.   This year instead of being Hope and Calvin and (maybe) another guy, they've reverted to just Hope.  Adrian really looked like a comer for a while.

[sac]

OAC

Capital         11-3
John Carroll   10-4
Marietta         9-5
Wilmington      9-5
Bald-Wally      8-6

JCU's oopsie moment at Otterbein this past Saturday puts the race in the hands of Capital.  Baldwin-Wallace could have the most say in how things play out as they play both Capital and JCU this week in Berea.  Marietta meanwhile goes on the road twice this week, with an upset or two at the top could find themselves hosting both Capital and JCU next week with a lot on the line.

Wed. Game to watch:

John Carroll @ Baldwin Wallace:  Title race implications aside, this was only a 4 point win for JCU back in early January.

bonus:   Otterbein at Capital:   fresh off their upset of JCU, Otterbein gets Capital.  Capital won the first meeting by 9 on Jan 4.  but that was a 1 or 2 possession game the whole way with Cap scoring the last 5 points of the game from the FT line.   Upset alert indeed.



NCAC

Wittenberg        11-1
Wooster             9-3
Ohio Wesleyan    8-4
Wabash              7-5
DePauw              7-5

If you wonder why the standings look like they do its because the one team of the top 5 who has played the fewest games vs the other 4 is Wittenberg.  That ends this week as Witt finishes with 3 games vs teams in the top 5 and the 4th game vs the only team to hand them an NCAC loss.  Might want to buckle-up if you're a Witt fan.

Wed. game to watch

Wooster @ Ohio Wesleyan:   why the game to watch, well without a Wooster win here the conference race is pretty much decided, while a Wooster win would lead nicely into Saturdays Woo/Witt encounter.  This was a 4 point win for Wooster at home 3 weeks ago.

bonus:   Wittenberg @ Wabash:   Witt blewout Wabash 3 weeks ago at home.  Status quo if Witt wins, a Wabash win could give us the close NCAC finish this league deserves.




MIAA

Hope          10-0
Trine            6-4
Adrian          6-4
Calvin           6-4
Albion          4-6

Hope's clinched at least a share of the league, the real drama is the fight for seedings for the MIAA's half-tournament.

Wed. game to watch:

Albion @ Trine:  This is probably Albion's last chance to have a chance at making the tournament.  A loss would probably put them 3 back with 3 to go.  A Trine win would obviously virtually assure the Thunder of a tournament bid.  Trine won by 16 @ Albion 3 weeks ago, and Albion is hurting.

bonus:  Kalamazoo @ Hope:  D3's new #1 plays its first game with that title against an old rival with a chance to claim the MIAA Championship outright.



PAC

Thiel               11-2
Bethany          10-2
Thomas More   10-3
St. Vincent       9-3

Things have really tightened up thanks to Thomas More's wins over Thiel and Bethany last week. 

Wed. game to watch:  Pick any of the other 3 GL leagues to follow as the these four PAC teams should win with ease and if they don't they probably don't deserve to be among these four.

bonus:  after Wed.  only 3 more days until Bethany @ Thiel on Saturday.

[WAlum]

Every game is important down the stretch for the GL teams with Pool C hopes.  It will be fun to see the official regional rankings this week!

[ScotsFan]

Adrian really looked like a comer for a while.

When was this?  When they were losing at home to Wooster  by 25 or when they were losing at Alma?  Sorry, but there isn't an MIAA team other than Hope that has looked like a comer this year...

[ScotsFan]

Regional Rankings are out and much to my delight, no PrAC teams made the cut:

GREAT LAKES

1 Hope 12-0 20-1
2 Wittenberg 15-3 17-4
3 Wooster 16-3 18-3
4 Ohio Wesleyan 15-5 16-5
5 Wabash 13-6 15-6
6 Capital 13-6 14-7


No real surprises here.  I think this may be a first to see 4 teams from the NCAC regionally ranked.   

Wooster could really help themselves as they could notch 2 road wins over regionally ranked opponents this week!

[KnightSlappy]

Looks like SOS is being valued highly, which is very good.

[KnightSlappy]

Best fit ratios across all regions seems to be 60% SOS 40% WP. Last year it was always more like 50-50.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Looks like SOS is being valued highly, which is very good.

Yeah, check out the Northeast: MIT is only 7th; Albertus Magnus is 12th (each with only one loss)!  MIT's SOS is below .500; AM's is a dreadful .435.

[ScotsFan]

Looks like SOS is being valued highly, which is very good.

Agreed! 

[sac]

Regional Rankings are out and much to my delight, no PrAC teams made the cut:

GREAT LAKES

1 Hope 12-0 20-1
2 Wittenberg 15-3 17-4
3 Wooster 16-3 18-3
4 Ohio Wesleyan 15-5 16-5
5 Wabash 13-6 15-6
6 Capital 13-6 14-7

With last night's NCAC results of Wooster beating OWU, and Wabash beating Witt you could probably pencil in  the rankings as...

1. Hope
2. Wooster
3. Wittenberg
4. Wabash
5. Ohio Wesleyan
6. Capital

Wabash/Wesleyan are guaranteed a loss, same with Witt/Wooster in the next week.  After tonight these are probably the only 6 that will get ranked this year, unless the committee sneaks Bethany or Thiel in after their game this weekend ..........either Wabash or Wesleyan is probably going to find themselves close to outside this top 6.  All bets off if Capital loses again.

[sac]

OAC

Capital           12-3
John Carroll     10-5
Marietta         10-5
Wilmington      10-5
Bald-Wally        9-6

With B-W's win over JCU on Wed., Capital is in control.  Lot's of good match-ups in the coming days and some serious jockeying for OAC seedings.

Sat game to watch:

Capital @ Baldwin Wallace:   Has to be this one doesn't it?  BW fresh off beating JCU with a chance to take down Capital.  A Capital win clinches at least a share of the OAC Championship.  Capital won the first game 75-69, nearly blowing a 17 point lead. 

Bonus:  Wilmington @ John Carroll:   Wilmington has kind of hung around in the race and is now tied for 2nd with JCU so this particular game has strong tournament and Championship implications, particularly if someone can beat Capital.

bonus, bonus:  Marietta @ Heidelberg:   A Marietta win sets up a nice Wed. showdown with Capital in Marietta.  Even better if BW beat Capital Saturday.



NCAC

Wittenberg       11-2
Wooster           10-3
Ohio Wesleyan    8-5
Wabash             8-5
DePauw             7-6
Denison             7-6

Wittenberg's loss to Wabash has tightend up the NCAC race.  It's really down to two teams and its old friends Witt and Woo.  Wesleyan and Wabash have NCAC tournament and NCAA considerations to worry about.  We welcome Denison into the mix, and lookout, the Big Red have a favorable finish and could potentially sneak into the 4/5 game with some favorable results.  Still much to play for in the NCAC

Saturday game to watch:
Wooster @ Wittenberg---Way, way back in early December Wittenberg won this game by one in the last second.  Since then they've stayed on top while others stumbled behind them.  This is game 2 of Witt's tough 4 game finish.   A Wittenberg win clinches at least a share of the NCAC, a Wooster win produces a tie, with the finish probably favoring Wooster a little.  Throw in the Great Lakes rankings and this is a pretty massive game for both teams.

bonus:  Ohio Wesleyan @ Hiram--OWU is kind of between big games, they could get caught off guard here.


MIAA

Hope           11-0--Clinched MIAA Championship
Adrian           7-4
Calvin           7-4
Trine            6-5
Albion           5-6

Hope's win Wed. over Kalamazoo clinched the MIAA Championship outright with as little fanfare as is possible.  Albion's win at Trine kept the Britons alive in the pursuit of an MIAA tournament slot.


Sat game to watch:
Hope @ Calvin-- Calvin is still battling for tournament positioning.  Should be an emotion filled afternoon with Hope's #1 ranking and all.  A Hope win would put more pressure on Calvin's remaining two games.  A Calvin win keeps them in pursuit of the 2 seed.

Albion @ Kalamazoo--  Another must win for Albion.  A loss does not officially eliminate the Britons, they would have to win one of the leagues tie-breakers.  A Win and Albion lives to fight another day with Trine having a tough week next week.

Technically Kzoo and Alma are both still alive for the MIAA tournament, but those odds are so low its pretty unlikely to happen.



PAC

Thiel                 12-2
Bethany            11-2
Thomas More     11-3
St. Vincent        10-3

As you can see the PAC has bunched up at the top, these four have a staggering 5 game lead in the loss column over the current #5 team.  The PAC is a full tournament and these four have locked up a top 4 seed.  Its now just a matter of figuring out those seeds.

Sat. Game to Watch:
Bethany @ Thiel--  the long awaited rematch.  Thiel whipped Bethany on the Bison's home floor the first time.  The winner here is the leader of the PAC going into next week.  Thiel would wrap up at least a share of the PAC as they have just one more league game remaining.

bonus:  Since the PAC may end up being a 1 bid league to the NCAA, gaining the top seed and therefore home court advantage in the tournament could be paramount.