Great Lakes Region

[smedindy]

Coulda, shoulda, woulda makes for nice coffee talk, but you can't change the reality of the situation. If you want to avoid missing the tourney because you've been saddled with a schedule that looked 'good' but turned out poor, then WIN YOUR LEAGUE!!

Want to win the MVP every year? Hit a home run every time you're at the plate and never make an error in field.

What? Win your league and you don't have to worry about the committee. Simple as that.

Of course, it would be best if there weren't conference tourneys, but still, how hard is that. Take any doubt out of the committee's hands. Else, you have NO excuses.

[Titan Q]

But doesn't results against regionally-ranked means mean ranked in ANY region?  Therefore, Calvin will also have Wheaton (though that didn't turn out so well ).  [And Hope will have NCC, Wheaton, and IWU if they finish well enough for that to be relevant.]

No, this is not the case.  The criteria list is:

* Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
* Strength of schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
  - Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP).
  - Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).
* In-region head-to-head competition.
* In-region results versus common regional opponents.
* In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.


The game has to be "in-region" to be used for RRO.  So Transylvania's (Midwest) win over Wooster (Great Lakes) would count, but not Wheaton's (Midwest) over Calvin (Great Lakes).

Last year IWU was helped by two out-of-region wins over teams ranked in other regions - Bethany and Staten Island - but that was in the "secondary criteria."  Those games did not show up in IWU's RRO calculation.

http://static.psbin.com/w/6/qxppu7z1rkr1ta/2013_Pre_Championship_DIII_Men-s_Basketball.pdf

[Titan Q]

Oh, right. I remember reading about this on the boards in previous years - since the criterion says "results" and not "wins" or "losses" or "winning percentage" etc. Thus, a 3-3 set of results might be seen more favorably (or at least equally) than an 2-0 because of the six data points vs. two.

Yes, on this topic I think it was Pat Coleman who once posted --

"Tis better to have played and lost than never to have played at all."

[sac]

But doesn't results against regionally-ranked means mean ranked in ANY region?  Therefore, Calvin will also have Wheaton (though that didn't turn out so well ).  [And Hope will have NCC, Wheaton, and IWU if they finish well enough for that to be relevant.]

I am aware of that and whoopdy do.  The Great Lakes, Atlantic regions will have the fewest 'ranked' teams of every region.  This is major advantage to the power conferences of the other regions that the GL power conferences really don't get to enjoy.

They will have the same proportion of ranked teams as every other region.  The problem, of course, is that the size of regions is no where near balanced.

The imbalance comes from the power conferences such as the CCIW, WIAC etc having the opportunity to have their 3rd and 4th place teams be ranked at some point.  That is much less likely to happen for the MIAA, OAC or NCAC in such a small region.

......in the end, no the proportions won't be the same.

[KnightSlappy]

Coulda, shoulda, woulda makes for nice coffee talk, but you can't change the reality of the situation. If you want to avoid missing the tourney because you've been saddled with a schedule that looked 'good' but turned out poor, then WIN YOUR LEAGUE!!

Want to win the MVP every year? Hit a home run every time you're at the plate and never make an error in field.

What? Win your league and you don't have to worry about the committee. Simple as that.

Right, but it's not realistic that every deserving team wins their AQ. And beside, this discussion also is about seeding and hosting once you're in.

[smedindy]

Deserving is in the eyes of the beholder. The power conferences can't have all the cake.

No one will ever ever ever be satisfied with any algorithm for seeding or hosting. I prefer national SOS and national rankings of course, using neutral measures that incorporate other factors than just straight up W/L. But you take baby steps.

[Titan Q]

My Midwest projection...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4592.32160

[KnightSlappy]

Finally, to rest Calvin's season on the fact that Wabash and Anderson were off this year (and to be honest, I didn't expect those teams to be stellar this year, so why should Calvin) is a lot to put on Calvin's schedule - in other words... two teams doesn't make or break a schedule.

What is the list of teams that Calvin should have scheduled. If we're looking for them to go out and schedule games versus regionally ranked opponents. When KVS was beginning to fill out his 2012-13 schedule 18 months ago, what in-region teams should have he expected to be ranked?

I'll start the list with Wooster. Are there really any more teams? Do we even want to include ODAC teams in this?

Again, not trying to complain about Calvin -- I accept where they are and do agree they need to schedule better in-region game -- just trying to use them as an example to show how silly the "versus regionally ranked" component is if we're trying to see if teams are "making an attempt to schedule tough games" or "go above and beyond".

Which team played more games versus regionally ranked: the team with the .450 SOS or the .550 SOS? What are we really adding by using this criterion?

[smedindy]

You should never forecast regional rankings. I realize Calvin's in a tough spot since most of the CCIW is out of region, and even though the HCAC and NCAC are in region getting some teams up to Grand Rapids isn't easy. But, they could stop scheduling the NAIA and concentrate of D-3 schools. Just my nickel...

[KnightSlappy]

Finlandia is the team killing Calvin's schedule strength.

Actually the home games versus Anderson, North Park, and Albion are all worse from an SOS component standpoint. If they replaced those three games with @Finlandia their SOS would improve by .015.

[KnightSlappy]

You should never forecast regional rankings. I realize Calvin's in a tough spot since most of the CCIW is out of region, and even though the HCAC and NCAC are in region getting some teams up to Grand Rapids isn't easy. But, they could stop scheduling the NAIA and concentrate of D-3 schools. Just my nickel...

I don't disagree, but they only played three games versus non-D3's this year. That's not a ton considering there is only one non-conference D3 that is in-state, Finlandia, and they're actually over 500 miles away.

It will get better next year when all D3's count the same, so long as they don't have trouble getting to the 75% in-region mark.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The percentage is actually 70% in region games - I wish it was 75... but it is 70.

[sac]

The percentage is actually 70% in region games - I wish it was 75... but it is 70.

25 x .7 = 17.5   rounded up to 18
25 x .75 = 18.5  rounded up to 19

because that 1 game makes all the difference?

[sac]

Finlandia is the team killing Calvin's schedule strength.

Actually the home games versus Anderson, North Park, and Albion are all worse from an SOS component standpoint. If they replaced those three games with @Finlandia their SOS would improve by .015.

and that is just crazy

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The percentage is actually 70% in region games - I wish it was 75... but it is 70.

25 x .7 = 17.5   rounded up to 18
25 x .75 = 18.5  rounded up to 19

because that 1 game makes all the difference?

There are more sports than basketball... and I think that one game will keep teams from being more travel crazy. I also wanted it more than 75%... so like 20 games.