Great Lakes Region

[wally_wabash]

It just seems like Calvin's treatment in these rankings are particularly punitive. 

Well, I see these as two separate and equally important issues:

1) You have to play a certain # of in-region games, and

2) You have to have positive numbers in three areas: in-region winning %, SOS, and results vs regionally ranked opponents.

The number of in-region games you play is (largely) under your own control.  Your win% in those games is under your control.  But SOS and results vs RROs (specifically whether or not any of your opponents ever gets ranked) is not.  That's the bugaboo. 

In football, where you only have 9 or 10 results to look at, you really need dig into the minutiae of SOS and RROs to separate at-large candidates.  In basketball, over the course of 25+ games, I think those metrics become less necessary.  Win% becomes the most important thing because over 25+ games, it's really hard to be undefeated or lose just once or twice or three times no matter who was on your schedule.  Take a look at Wooster for example.  Wooster is 21-4 and are 3-1 against RROs which is quite nice.  But three of the four games they've lost are to unranked and really pretty average teams.  Wooster didn't get to 22-3 and it wasn't because their schedule was harder.  They lost three games to the same caliber of team that Calvin never lost to (or maybe just once vs. Carthage).  And never mind the common opponent thing there either, although that just underscores the point. 

If they want to rank Wooster ahead of Calvin because of the SOS and RRO differences, fine.  I don't agree, but I can buy it.  It just doesn't make sense that they would be lower than #2 here given 22 wins in 25 games.  That's excellent regardless of an OWP or OOWP or any combination thereof. 

[KnightSlappy]

Thanks to 'd-mac' for a detailed and fair rendering of a process that will always be imperfect. The bottom line is that if Calvin wins two games this week, Pool C trivia is, well, just trivia to them. Conference results showed the Knights were the best team in the MIAA this year, they are healthy, and they get home court advantage. Things are set up for them to win two games this week so let's just do it.

But this is about more than just Pool C, it's about seeding and hosting as well. It's possible that Calvin hosts zero games even if they win out. They'd probably get the opening round, though, with the new format for this year.

[ziggy]

And finally, I get the real sense that many people want these selections and rankings to be cut and dry and based on only hard data and weighted accordingly... that isn't going to happen. The BSC.. I mean BCS  doesn't allow the computers to control the rankings completely... and D1 basketball doesn't allow the data to control it completely. There are committees in place that will weigh the data per each head-to-head and such to decide where teams will be placed or selected. We shouldn't be getting away some type of human interpretation. And remember, the "old boys network" made some of the strangest decisions of all time... at least the data helps get rid of that aspect of the selection process and makes the committees look at the real information in front of them to make these decisions.

And the coach votes is/was where the corruption exists.

But the BCS (the people behind it, that is) also prohibit the computers from considering margin of victory. I believe a number of the computer pollsters publish their official BCS rankings and also publish a different set of "better" BCS rankings based on what they believe to be a more accurate model.

[oldknight]

Thanks to 'd-mac' for a detailed and fair rendering of a process that will always be imperfect. The bottom line is that if Calvin wins two games this week, Pool C trivia is, well, just trivia to them. Conference results showed the Knights were the best team in the MIAA this year, they are healthy, and they get home court advantage. Things are set up for them to win two games this week so let's just do it.

But this is about more than just Pool C, it's about seeding and hosting as well. It's possible that Calvin hosts zero games even if they win out. They'd probably get the opening round, though, with the new format for this year.

Fair point. But if the committee winds up putting Calvin at Aurora, that's fine with me.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Thanks to 'd-mac' for a detailed and fair rendering of a process that will always be imperfect. The bottom line is that if Calvin wins two games this week, Pool C trivia is, well, just trivia to them. Conference results showed the Knights were the best team in the MIAA this year, they are healthy, and they get home court advantage. Things are set up for them to win two games this week so let's just do it.

But this is about more than just Pool C, it's about seeding and hosting as well. It's possible that Calvin hosts zero games even if they win out. They'd probably get the opening round, though, with the new format for this year.

Considering there are no pods to host this year, I don't think this would be an issue. There is a real chance they can host games against the Rose-Hulmans and others in the first or second round... and then hit the road for the third round. And again, with losses in conference tournaments and their SOS improving because of teams like Hope winning right now, they could easily move up the polls as F&M did last year.

[KnightSlappy]

The average WP of Calvin's possible non-conference, in-region opponents (considering only teams that exist in MI, the GL region, or MW region -- not Virginia or anything) is .469.

So, potentially, playing MORE regional games means playing worse ones.

To expand the point further, going out to 200 miles, the average non-conference, in-region opponent Calvin could have potentially faced has a .375 winning percentage. Out to 300 miles it's still only .441 (boosted by OWU and Wooster both being 290-300 miles away).

I know teams around the country (particularly out west and in the south) have to drive to find games, but does the NCAA consider this or do they rigidly hold to the SOS number while eschewing hard selection metrics that they'd have to rigidly hold to?

[ziggy]

The average WP of Calvin's possible non-conference, in-region opponents (considering only teams that exist in MI, the GL region, or MW region -- not Virginia or anything) is .469.

So, potentially, playing MORE regional games means playing worse ones.

To expand the point further, going out to 200 miles, the average non-conference, in-region opponent Calvin could have potentially faced has a .375 winning percentage. Out to 300 miles it's still only .441 (boosted by OWU and Wooster both being 290-300 miles away).

I know teams around the country (particularly out west and in the south) have to drive to find games, but does the NCAA consider this or do they rigidly hold to the SOS number while eschewing hard selection metrics that they'd have to rigidly hold to?

A reasonable argument can be made that the only reason Machester was on Calvin's schedule this year was because of the need (real or imagined) for more in-region games. That's a mighty weight around the neck right now.

And it's not like Calvin went out and tried to play an easy schedule. I went back and found this in the season preview:
"We play about as good of a nonconference schedule as anyone in the country," Vande Streek said.  "We have gotten away from the NAIA schools.  The NCAA has put the pressure on us to play in region games.  We have to play 70 percent of our games in region."

Like KS said elsewhere, with Calvin's current regional ranking, the NCAA is basically saying they never had a chance to be ranked any higher because of the schedule.

[smedindy]

Could this be an anomalous year for some of those teams?

You are considering RHIT and Transylvania, correct? It's probably easier to get to Transy than Hanover...

[ScotsFan]

If they want to rank Wooster ahead of Calvin because of the SOS and RRO differences, fine.  I don't agree, but I can buy it.  It just doesn't make sense that they would be lower than #2 here given 22 wins in 25 games.  That's excellent regardless of an OWP or OOWP or any combination thereof.

Really, the difference between 22-3 and 21-4 is insignificant at best.  But when you throw in the big advantage Wooster has in SOS over Calvin, it's hard not to see why Wooster is #1.  The part that confounds me is why Calvin's total résumé isn't good enough to have them ranked higher than they are. 

[Titan Q]

If they want to rank Wooster ahead of Calvin because of the SOS and RRO differences, fine.  I don't agree, but I can buy it.  It just doesn't make sense that they would be lower than #2 here given 22 wins in 25 games.  That's excellent regardless of an OWP or OOWP or any combination thereof.

Really, the difference between 22-3 and 21-4 is insignificant at best.  But when you throw in the big advantage Wooster has in SOS over Calvin, it's hard not to see why Wooster is #1.  The part that confounds me is why Calvin's total résumé isn't good enough to have them ranked higher than they are.

But based on the criteria, who should Calvin be higher than, and why?

1. Wooster (Great Lakes, NCAC) -20-4 (.833)/.552/3-1
2. Ohio Wesleyan (Great Lakes, NCAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.537/2-2
3. Thomas More (Great Lakes, PrAC) - 20-3 (.870)/.498/1-2
4. Capital (Great Lakes, OAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.487/1-2
5. St. Vincent (Great Lakes, PrAC) - 18-3 (.857)/.493/1-1
6. Calvin (Great Lakes, MIAA) - 18-1 (.947)/.444/0-0


I'm not saying a disagree necessarily, but I guess I'm looking for a more criteria-based opinion.

The more I have looked at the numbers in the last week or so, the more I have come to realize the challenge Calvin has with the criteria.

[KnightSlappy]

Could this be an anomalous year for some of those teams?

You are considering RHIT and Transylvania, correct? It's probably easier to get to Transy than Hanover...

In the total number, yes, not in the "within 300 miles number".

Anomalous is a good word for it. Three opponents that Calvin has played: Wabash, Anderson, and Manchester are a combined 20-50 in regional play after combining 42-34 last year. If those numbers held we won't be having this discussion (even if Calvin lost two of those games).

[sac]

Has anyone received any word on why Hope's in-region record was incorrect again last week?

[Mr. Ypsi]

If they want to rank Wooster ahead of Calvin because of the SOS and RRO differences, fine.  I don't agree, but I can buy it.  It just doesn't make sense that they would be lower than #2 here given 22 wins in 25 games.  That's excellent regardless of an OWP or OOWP or any combination thereof.

Really, the difference between 22-3 and 21-4 is insignificant at best.  But when you throw in the big advantage Wooster has in SOS over Calvin, it's hard not to see why Wooster is #1.  The part that confounds me is why Calvin's total résumé isn't good enough to have them ranked higher than they are.

But based on the criteria, who should Calvin be higher than, and why?

1. Wooster (Great Lakes, NCAC) -20-4 (.833)/.552/3-1
2. Ohio Wesleyan (Great Lakes, NCAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.537/2-2
3. Thomas More (Great Lakes, PrAC) - 20-3 (.870)/.498/1-2
4. Capital (Great Lakes, OAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.487/1-2
5. St. Vincent (Great Lakes, PrAC) - 18-3 (.857)/.493/1-1
6. Calvin (Great Lakes, MIAA) - 18-1 (.947)/.444/0-0


I'm not saying a disagree necessarily, but I guess I'm looking for a more criteria-based opinion.

The more I have looked at the numbers in the last week or so, the more I have come to realize the challenge Calvin has with the criteria.

It all depends on how the criteria are weighed.  This year, they seem to be (IMO) over-weighting SOS.  I would place Calvin 3rd, as their W% should outweigh relatively modest SOS deficits to the current 3, 4, and 5.  SOS and WvRRO are only partially under a team's control - if Calvin's opponents had played more to their recent histories, this conversation would be unnecessary (and lack of RROs is in large part because Calvin beat Adrian and Hope!).

[smedindy]

It's still probably easier to get from Grand Rapids to Lexington or Terre Haute than some of the more 'scenic' places within 300 miles. Thomas More and Mt. St. Joe's are in the Cincy area.

I'm not saying it easy to schedule and definitely the NCAA should look at an exception for the MI / Northern Illinois area (I KNOW there are boundaries, but it makes sense here to grant a tiny waiver) but a weekend playing at Thomas More and Transylvania or Rose Hulman and DPU or Wabash would help Calvin.

[Gregory Sager]

I'm not saying it easy to schedule and definitely the NCAA should look at an exception for the MI / Northern Illinois area (I KNOW there are boundaries, but it makes sense here to grant a tiny waiver) but a weekend playing at Thomas More and Transylvania or Rose Hulman and DPU or Wabash would help Calvin.

There's no need for the NCAA to grant an exception. All it needs to do is to add a rule that schools from contiguous states are automatically in-region. Illinois and Michigan share a border. It runs right through the middle of the southern part of Lake Michigan.