Great Lakes Region

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There are really two issues at play in regards to the Calvin/SOS debate.

Yes, Calvin has a terrible SOS and the committee has to consider that in the way they best determine given the criteria. That is perfectly legitimate. Reasonable people can have a disagreement here.

But Dave, you never addressed the fact (or I missed it) that Calvin could have improved their SOS by playing Finlandia and Manchester at home instead of on the road. That is counter to the entire point of SOS and an issue that is beyond forgivable.

Getting hammered by SOS is one thing, getting hammered by SOS when the entire method is flawed is another.

ziggy - I have no comments to that affect... ask a coach. All I know from talking to coaches who seem to understand the system pretty well... you have to play the system. If that means playing a sub-par team at home and a superior team on the road... I guess that is how you work the system. There are a lot of systems out there that are flawed or not... and those who succeed seem to understand the system and make it work for them.

This isn't a perfect reference since they are struggling this year more than usual, but I found it very interesting this year that F&M decided to challenge themselves in non-conference road games. Last year they were criticized for playing one non-conference team on the road and it was down the street against an average or below-average them. This year they went to St. Mary's (third year of a home-and-home series that has materialized) and went on the road to play Transylvania and Wooster had they won. It isn't a major difference and the Transy game is secondary criteria, but it told me that they are starting to understand the system in place and are trying to adjust accordingly. Some coaches have caught on very quickly and others have not - or they have fallen victim to circumstances they can not control.

It will be very interesting next year to see coaches adjust once again to a more open field of games that can count. Just imagine that those games Calvin has against CCIW teams all counting and what that could have done to their SOS scenario this year.

And wally - I totally understand your point about scheduling. However, I also have talked to coaches as recently as this week who do their research and if they see a team who is pretty solid is going to lose a lot of contributors a year or two down the road because of graduation (i.e. Wabash)... they consider that. They may still schedule them because they are playing into the x-factor that the team they are considering may or may not be known to reload or because they need the game anyway. I don't think anyone gets the schedule they really want so they can take advantage of it... but I do get the sense that at least some coaches are considering the possibilities and ramifications. We have been in this system long enough I think coaches are getting it.

(Heck, one coach gave me the argument that they would considering scheduling my alma mater who hasn't had a good season in about ten years, but knows that their coach has put together some really good teams in the past and can do it again - so they would consider gambling on that. I did chuckle ).

[sac]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

[KnightSlappy]

Just for my curiosity, would KS or someone be willing to take Calvin's exact schedule this year and replace the Finlandia and Manchester games (which I'm certain were only scheduled to get more in-regions games which folks have been saying KVS should do more of) with one or two of the top teams in the 'region' (GL region or whatever counts as in-region game).

Assume Calvin loses both of these games for the sake of argument. How would the GL rankings look 'according to the criteria established for regional rankings -- the same criteria that is being discussed here at length.

Based on the results of this, I'm wondering if scheduling crappy in-region teams is really a good idea.

Second, I'm wondering if just scheduling one or two really tough, in-region games will make a difference for the situation that Calvin finds itself in. I mean, if one game would make a difference -- that's worth knowing. If, on the other hand, Calvin would need to have scheduled 5 tough, in-region games (replacing 5 weak teams) -- clearly KVS or any other coach in his shoes could not have arranged that.

Finally, for my own satisfaction, I'd just like to know if Calvin, using this screwed up regional ranking system, could have lost more games and been ranked higher.

Thanks in advance to anyone willing to do this. My apologies if this was already done.

Yeah, so losing to Wooster and Ohio Wesleyan instead of beating Finlandia and Manchester would put Calvin at roughly .842/.503

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Wow... that is a bigger jump than I would have expected to the SOS! I thought it would have gone up - but .06 or so is pretty impressive. Very interesting.

[KnightSlappy]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

I can't even...

I'm not even mad any more. I'm actually impressed.

[sac]

Yeah, so losing to Wooster and Ohio Wesleyan instead of beating Finlandia and Manchester would put Calvin at roughly .842/.503

Playing St. Vincent or Thomas More would give you a better SOS than playing Wooster.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

I can't even...

I'm not even mad any more. I'm actually impressed.

I was wondering if hostages might start to be taken... I will admit, #6 seems low. I would have had them at #5 compared to what we have known already... but I have to dive into the criteria more to maybe figure it out.

[KnightSlappy]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

I can't even...

I'm not even mad any more. I'm actually impressed.

I was wondering if hostages might start to be taken... I will admit, #6 seems low. I would have had them at #5 compared to what we have known already... but I have to dive into the criteria more to maybe figure it out.

Not even talking about Calvin anymore.

Thomas more has a better WP, SOS, more "results" versus regionally ranked opponents, and a 1-1 head-to-head record with St. Vincent. But they're behind them.

[ziggy]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

I can't even...

I'm not even mad any more. I'm actually impressed.

I was wondering if hostages might start to be taken... I will admit, #6 seems low. I would have had them at #5 compared to what we have known already... but I have to dive into the criteria more to maybe figure it out.

Not even talking about Calvin anymore.

Thomas more has a better WP, SOS, more "results" versus regionally ranked opponents, and a 1-1 head-to-head record with St. Vincent. But they're behind them.

I'd like to say that a Hoopsville segment in which a committee member walks through a specific set of rankings and lays out the rationale behind would be amazing but I fear it would actually be far more infuriating.

[KnightSlappy]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

I can't even...

I'm not even mad any more. I'm actually impressed.

I was wondering if hostages might start to be taken... I will admit, #6 seems low. I would have had them at #5 compared to what we have known already... but I have to dive into the criteria more to maybe figure it out.

Not even talking about Calvin anymore.

Thomas more has a better WP, SOS, more "results" versus regionally ranked opponents, and a 1-1 head-to-head record with St. Vincent. But they're behind them.

Also, based on the Capital-Calvin-Hope ranking:

1. Capital is giving up .121 in the WP to Calvin but has a .046 SOS advantage and a 1-2 to 0-0 vRRO advantage
2. Hope is giving up 0.089 in the WP to Capital but has a 0.46 SOS advantage and a 1-3 to 1-2 vRRO advantage

1-1 vRRO (vs. unranked Marietta, even) must carry more weight than .032 points of WP.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Well... the challenge there would be that is one committee member's point of view. The reason there are several and conference calls take so long is they are discussing those decisions with everyone's point of view on the table. That usually leads to a lot of point, counter-point and decisions made accordingly.

I have thought about doing it, but even the chairs have resisted probably because they understand that a) that is their point of view between Team A and Team B... b) there could be other points of view that may change their minds... and c) they as one person don't want to sway other people from reading the data themselves and having a healthy conversation about it.

Just my opinion on it though... you never know.

[Pat Coleman]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

I can't even...

I'm not even mad any more. I'm actually impressed.

I was wondering if hostages might start to be taken... I will admit, #6 seems low. I would have had them at #5 compared to what we have known already... but I have to dive into the criteria more to maybe figure it out.

Not even talking about Calvin anymore.

Thomas more has a better WP, SOS, more "results" versus regionally ranked opponents, and a 1-1 head-to-head record with St. Vincent. But they're behind them.

St. Vincent has a slight edge in common opponents: 14-0 vs. 13-1. Also has two more results vs. RRO in the secondary criteria.

[ziggy]

Well... the challenge there would be that is one committee member's point of view. The reason there are several and conference calls take so long is they are discussing those decisions with everyone's point of view on the table. That usually leads to a lot of point, counter-point and decisions made accordingly.

I have thought about doing it, but even the chairs have resisted probably because they understand that a) that is their point of view between Team A and Team B... b) there could be other points of view that may change their minds... and c) they as one person don't want to sway other people from reading the data themselves and having a healthy conversation about it.

Just my opinion on it though... you never know.

I completely understand that and I would probably be just as reluctant as the people you have interacted with. I was just thinking that while an individual certainly has his or her own opinions, he or she would also be aware of the discussion at large and based on that would be able to offer an overall explanation.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yeah - good thought ziggy... maybe one day I can figure out a way to do it without also being too specific. Usually on Match-Up Monday's show.. we get a little of that when talking about the last teams in.

[wally_wabash]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3

Quick recap of this week's GL region conference call....