Great Lakes Region

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Not sure anyone said that... I certainly didn't. But that doesn't mean there isn't a number to us non-committee members you can use as a barometer or guide as to their chances.

Many teams have gotten at-large bids with more than 8-losses thanks to SOS, head-to-head, vRRO, etc.... and teams with just a handful of losses have not made the tournament because of the same information.

[sac]

Well... some of those eight-loss teams didn't have all eight losses count in their in-region record

But some of them did.

I also think it's silly that there's a winning percentage (above zero) below which teams "can't" be considered for the rankings / Pool C.

I think I was just being realistic about their chances.  Technically no one has been eliminated but past selection history says 8 losses in this region is pretty much done.  With 7 in-region losses already and still some difficult games remaining I might have been just saving myself a little time by crossing them off the list.

We started using OWP/OOWP in 2008 with a few tweaks here and there.  15-9 Randolph from last year was the first 9 loss team I can remember making the tournament.  I can only think off the top of head of Wheaton and IWU making it with 8 losses.  IWU might have been in the old QOWI days.

[sac]

Well... some of those eight-loss teams didn't have all eight losses count in their in-region record

But some of them did.

I also think it's silly that there's a winning percentage (above zero) below which teams "can't" be considered for the rankings / Pool C.

I think I was just being realistic about their chances.  Technically no one has been eliminated but past selection history says 8 losses in this region is pretty much done.  With 7 in-region losses already and still some difficult games remaining I might have been just saving myself a little time by crossing them off the list.

We started using OWP/OOWP in 2008 with a few tweaks here and there.  15-9 Randolph from last year was the first 9 loss team I can remember making the tournament.  I can only think off the top of head of Wheaton and IWU making it with 8 losses.  IWU might have been in the old QOWI days.

Actually Randolph was 15-6 last year, they had 9 RRO's, my mistake.  IWU and Wheaton both had 7 losses.  Bad memory.


The only 8 loss teams that have been selected for Pool C  were Brandeis in 2009 and Springfield in 2013.

That's only 2 out of about 100 Pool C selections.  Pretty small chances.

[KnightSlappy]

I'll take a guess for today:

RG   ##   WP      wSOS    wRPI    NAT   Pool   D3      RRO   CONFER   TEAM
GL   01   0.895   0.545   0.633   008   A      17-2    3-1   NCAC     Wooster
GL   02   0.810   0.550   0.615   019   C      17-4    2-1   NCAC     Ohio Wesleyan
GL   03   0.760   0.534   0.591   037   A      19-6    2-4   MIAA     Hope
GL   04   0.850   0.504   0.591   039   A      17-3    1-1   OAC      Mount Union
GL   05   0.800   0.525   0.594   032   C      16-4    0-3   OAC      Marietta
gl   06   0.810   0.497   0.575   057   C      17-4    2-2   NCAC     Wittenberg
GL   07   0.882   0.473   0.575   056   A      15-2    1-0   PrAC     St. Vincent

[Flying Dutch Fan]

I'll take a guess for today:

RG   ##   WP      wSOS    wRPI    NAT   Pool   D3      RRO   CONFER   TEAM
GL   01   0.895   0.545   0.633   008   A      17-2    3-1   NCAC     Wooster
GL   02   0.810   0.550   0.615   019   C      17-4    2-1   NCAC     Ohio Wesleyan
GL   03   0.760   0.534   0.591   037   A      19-6    2-4   MIAA     Hope
GL   04   0.850   0.504   0.591   039   A      17-3    1-1   OAC      Mount Union
GL   05   0.800   0.525   0.594   032   C      16-4    0-3   OAC      Marietta
gl   06   0.810   0.497   0.575   057   C      17-4    2-2   NCAC     Wittenberg
GL   07   0.882   0.473   0.575   056   A      15-2    1-0   PrAC     St. Vincent

Hope is 14-5 vs D3.  I suspect you used 19-6 while predicting what Hope's record would be if they win out but lose in the Conf Finals.

[KnightSlappy]

Great catch, yes I still had that in the spreadsheet!

RG   ##   WP      wSOS    wRPI    NAT   Pool   D3      RRO   CONFER   TEAM
GL   01   0.895   0.545   0.633   008   A      17-2    3-1   NCAC     Wooster
GL   02   0.810   0.550   0.615   019   C      17-4    2-1   NCAC     Ohio Wesleyan
GL   03   0.737   0.564   0.607   021   A      14-5    2-4   MIAA     Hope
GL   04   0.850   0.504   0.591   039   A      17-3    1-1   OAC      Mount Union
GL   05   0.800   0.525   0.594   033   C      16-4    0-3   OAC      Marietta
gl   06   0.810   0.496   0.575   058   C      17-4    2-2   NCAC     Wittenberg
GL   07   0.882   0.473   0.575   056   A      15-2    1-0   PrAC     St. Vincent

[Fifth and Putnam]

I hope that 0-3 RRO doesn't come back to haunt Marietta at the end of the season. They were right there in all three of those games.

[KnightSlappy]

I hope that 0-3 RRO doesn't come back to haunt Marietta at the end of the season. They were right there in all three of those games.

My understanding is that RROs can only really be positive in the eyes of the committees. That is, that 0-3 is still better than 0-0 (though 3-0, 2-1 or 1-2 are better than 0-3).

[sac]

I hope that 0-3 RRO doesn't come back to haunt Marietta at the end of the season. They were right there in all three of those games.

My understanding is that RROs can only really be positive in the eyes of the committees. That is, that 0-3 is still better than 0-0 (though 3-0, 2-1 or 1-2 are better than 0-3).

Marietta will pick up at least one more RRO when they play Mt. Union next week, could get another in the OAC tournament.

[sac]

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3/division-iii-regional-rankings

GREAT LAKES                  
1   Wooster                   17-2   18-3         
2   Ohio Wesleyan   17-4   17-4         
3   Mount Union           17-3   17-3         
4   Marietta                   16-4   17-4         
5   Wittenberg           17-4   17-4         
6   Hope                   14-5   15-6         
7   Bethany (W.Va.)   17-4   18-4

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Or you can go to this link... which includes the SOS data links: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2014/02/12/2014-ncaa-regional-rankings-week-1/

[KnightSlappy]

WOW, Hope has a 0.078 advantage over Wittenberg in SOS, but that didn't make up for their 0.073 disadvantage is SOS (plus having two more results versus RRO)?

This is the opposite of how teams were ranked last year.

[sac]

St. Vincent   15-2    .882/.460
Bethany       17-4    .810/.489

I Really don't see the rational thinking behind Bethany being ahead of St. Vincent.  So +.029 SOS is enough to make up for 2 more losses and a head-to-head loss to St. Vincent?


so .029 SOS is enough to lift Bethany over St. Vincent, but +.078 SOS is not enough to lift Hope over Wittenberg?
Hope           14-5     .737/.588
Wittenberg   17-4    .810/.510

[KnightSlappy]

St. Vincent   15-2    .882/.460
Bethany       17-4    .810/.489

I Really don't see the rational thinking behind Bethany being ahead of St. Vincent.  So +.029 SOS is enough to make up for 2 more losses and a head-to-head loss to St. Vincent?


so .029 SOS is enough to lift Bethany over St. Vincent, but +.078 SOS is not enough to lift Hope over Wittenberg?
Hope           14-5     .737/.588
Wittenberg   17-4    .810/.510

Yeah, I was just about to point out Bethany too. Don't get it.

Also, the NCAA is doing the SOS calc the wrong way still, that much is clear form the numbers.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Well... according to the championships committee (overall one, not sport specific), they are doing it the right way. I know you know what I am talking about. Agreed the math is fuzzy and nearly a washout, but the NCAA thinks they are right until they are proven otherwise .