Great Lakes Region

NW Hope Fan · February 12, 2014, 11:07:18 PM

Quote from: David Collinge on February 12, 2014, 10:11:06 PM
Ranked GL teams went 3-3-1 tonight, as #2 OWU, #4 Marietta, and #5 Wittenberg lost by 11, 20, and 22, respectively.

Well there ya go! And #6 won by 51!

(And Olivet only lost to #3 Mt. union by 7)

sac · February 13, 2014, 01:53:12 PM

Updated these with last nights results. I'd like to believe this would look quite a bit different this morning with OWU, Marietta and Witt all losing. The SOS numbers wouldn't have changed all that much. In true NCAA fashion the data sheets from yesterday are gone.

GREAT LAKES
1 Wooster 18-2 19-3
2 Ohio Wesleyan 17-5 17-5
3 Mount Union 18-3 18-3
4 Marietta 16-5 17-5
5 Wittenberg 17-5 17-5
6 Hope 15-5 16-6
7 Bethany (W.Va.) 17-4 18-4

Mount Union probably #2 now, maybe Hope moves ahead of Witt but that would be a compete guess really.

Six losses is a bit more sketchy to get a Pool C than five.

Between Wooster/Wittenberg/ these two will accumulate a minimum of two losses with a head-to-head game this weekend and another loss in the NCAC Tournament. Ohio Wesleyan would also accumulate another loss in the NCAC Tournament to be a Pool C candidate.

Between Mt. Union/Marietta these two will accumulate a minimum of two losses with a head-to-head game next week and another loss in the NCAC Tournament.

Marietta, Wittenberg, Ohio Wesleyan have almost put themselves in must win situations now.

KnightSlappy · February 13, 2014, 02:52:40 PM

Updated RPI numbers through Wednesday, now using the NCAA's incorrect SOS calculation method.

RG   ##   WP     bSOS    bRPI    NAT   Pool   D3     RRO   CONFER   TEAM
GL   01   0.900   0.550   0.638   006   A     18-2    4-1   NCAC    Wooster
GL   02   0.750   0.577   0.620   015   A     15-5    2-4   MIAA    Hope
GL   03   0.773   0.541   0.599   031   C     17-5    2-3   NCAC    Ohio Wesleyan
GL   04   0.864   0.496   0.588   046   A     19-3    1-1   OAC     Mount Union
GL   05   0.762   0.525   0.584   049   C     16-5    0-3   OAC     Marietta
GL   06   0.714   0.535   0.580   056   C     15-6    3-4   NCAC    DePauw
GL   07   0.773   0.513   0.578   058   C     17-5    2-2   NCAC    Wittenberg
gl   08   0.810   0.491   0.570   068   C     17-4    1-0   PrAC    Bethany
gl   09   0.889   0.454   0.563   077   A     16-2    1-0   PrAC    St. Vincent
gl   10   0.650   0.521   0.554   091   C     13-7    0-4   OAC     Wilmington
gl   11   0.545   0.555   0.553   094   C     12-10   0-5   OAC     Baldwin Wallace
gl   12   0.600   0.530   0.548   105   C     12-8    2-3   UAA     Case Western Reserve
gl   13   0.818   0.451   0.543   112   C     18-4    1-0   AMCC    Penn State-Behrend
gl   14   0.591   0.522   0.539   119   C     13-9    1-3   OAC     Ohio Northern
gl   15   0.778   0.459   0.539   120   C     14-4    1-4   MIAA    Calvin
gl   16   0.636   0.505   0.538   123   C     14-8    0-4   OAC     John Carroll
gl   17   0.455   0.565   0.537   124   C     10-12   2-4   OAC     Capital
gl   18   0.850   0.430   0.535   127   A     17-3    0-0   AMCC    Hilbert
gl   19   0.571   0.516   0.530   140   C     12-9    1-3   PrAC    Thomas More
gl   20   0.474   0.547   0.529   147   C     9-10    1-3   UAA     Carnegie Mellon

DePauw is now 2-0 vs. Wittenberg. That's going to make things tough for the wTigers in the rankings.

By RPI, OWU still looks like they might be OK for a Pool C (though definitely bubble). Marietta/DePauw/Witt/Bethany look on the wrong side of the bubble.

sac · February 13, 2014, 04:08:36 PM

RRO's kill me

Out of conference RRO's
Hope - 6
Calvin -3
Wooster - 2
DePauw - 2
OWU - 1
Marietta - 1
Wittenbeg -1
Wilmington -1
Mt. Union - 0

sac · February 13, 2014, 04:31:52 PM

Last year's NCAA Tournament had little auto-bid carnage so the Pool C field probably went deeper into the records than any previous year.

2013 Pool C qualifiers, losses
3 (1)
4 (4)
5 (6)
6 (5)
7 (2)
8 (1)

In 2012, four 6 loss teams made the field as Pool C's.

The seven and eight loss teams (Plattsburgh St., Rutgers-Newark, Springfield) were the only 7/8 loss teams to make the field the last two years. Springfield was one of only two eight loss teams to make the Pool C field since 2008 when we went to OWP/OOWP/SOS calculations.

Last night's carnage in the Great Lakes Region really put some teams in peril of missing out on the tournament. I'm with KS I think Wittenberg's in real danger, assuming they accumulate just another loss in the NCAC tournament, unless their SOS gets a big boost in the coming weeks, which it might, I'm not sure they'll have the criteria for selection. An SOS of .520 was the lowest of the 6/7/8 loss teams from last year and that 6 loss team had 9 RRO's

How much on or off the bubble a team is really depends on results in the conference tournaments two weeks from now.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 13, 2014, 04:38:03 PM

I think this year has one factor we haven't seen in a very long time... a very deep number of teams that have good NCAA resumes. Even if there are not a lot of upsets in conference tournament play, we will still have a lot of teams that have legitimate arguments to be in the tournament. My source also pointed out they are expecting this year to be a very difficult year when determining at-large teams.

sac · February 13, 2014, 05:10:14 PM

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 13, 2014, 04:38:03 PM
I think this year has one factor we haven't seen in a very long time... a very deep number of teams that have good NCAA resumes. Even if there are not a lot of upsets in conference tournament play, we will still have a lot of teams that have legitimate arguments to be in the tournament. My source also pointed out they are expecting this year to be a very difficult year when determining at-large teams.

I'm not so sure I see that as any different than the last couple years. There are already a number of 5/6 loss teams in the regional rankings. I count 23 already, that's 1/3 of the 64 regionally ranked teams. By definition of being a Pool C candidate every one looses at least one more. Its really going to depend on who the AQ qualifiers are as always.

After Randolph's SOS of .520 with 9 RRO's, the next lowest of the 5/6/7/8 loss teams to make it last year was probably Rutgers-Newark at 19-7 .548 SOS, 7 RRO's

sac · February 15, 2014, 02:55:20 PM

Kenyon 75 DePauw 67

There might have been a small window for DePauw to be ranked had they won and Witt lost tonight. This game impacts the NCAC tournament seedings much more.

Pitt-Greensburg 67 Hilbert 62

The previous ranking suggested Hilbert didn't have much of a chance to crack into the rankings. I would say this loss assures they won't be ranked as they drop to 17-4.

Bethany 85 St. Vincent 65

Creates a tie atop the PAC with St. Vincent. I believe Bethany holds the tie-breaker for Number 1 seed in the tournament. Unlikely Bethany would be a presentable Pool C team(low SOS), but they have a chance to move up in the GL rankings with this win and all the other losses.

Thomas More lost today as well. Could have been 1 game back with both Bethany and St. Vincent on the schedule next week.

KnightSlappy · February 15, 2014, 10:28:30 PM

Ohio Northern 90, Mount Union 85

Wooster 60, Wittenberg 55

Just a quick check over my sheet right now, and Calvin, St. Vincent, and DePauw might be battling for the top spot among teams that won't be ranked this week.

According to my numbers, if the NCAA calculated SOS the way it should be done, Mount Union's SOS advantage over Calvin would be .010. They way they're calculating it, the SOS difference comes out to .033.

KnightSlappy · February 15, 2014, 10:44:36 PM

(Mostly) thru Saturday. Now using the NCAA's wrong SOS method.

RG   ##   WP     bSOS    bRPI    NAT   Pool   D3     RRO   CONFER   TEAM
GL   01   0.905   0.555   0.642   005   A     19-2    5-1   NCAC    Wooster
GL   02   0.762   0.561   0.611   019   A     16-5    2-4   MIAA    Hope
GL   03   0.783   0.533   0.596   032   C     18-5    2-3   NCAC    Ohio Wesleyan
GL   04   0.773   0.530   0.591   039   C     17-5    0-3   OAC     Marietta
GL   05   0.818   0.505   0.583   049   A     18-4    1-0   PrAC    Bethany
GL   06   0.826   0.498   0.580   050   A     19-4    1-1   OAC     Mount Union
GL   07   0.739   0.523   0.577   056   C     17-6    2-3   NCAC    Wittenberg
gl   08   0.682   0.534   0.571   066   C     15-7    3-4   NCAC    DePauw
gl   09   0.842   0.462   0.557   085   C     16-3    1-1   PrAC    St. Vincent
gl   10   0.650   0.521   0.553   092   C     13-7    0-4   OAC     Wilmington
gl   11   0.609   0.532   0.551   098   C     14-9    2-3   OAC     Ohio Northern
gl   12   0.522   0.560   0.550   099   C     12-11   0-6   OAC     Baldwin Wallace
gl   13   0.826   0.455   0.548   103   A     19-4    1-0   AMCC    Penn State-Behrend
gl   14   0.619   0.524   0.548   104   C     13-8    2-3   UAA     Case Western Reserve
gl   15   0.789   0.465   0.546   109   C     15-4    1-4   MIAA    Calvin
gl   16   0.636   0.503   0.537   124   C     14-8    0-4   OAC     John Carroll
gl   17   0.478   0.555   0.536   128   C     11-12   2-4   OAC     Capital
gl   18   0.522   0.532   0.530   146   C     12-11   1-6   NCAC    Denison
gl   19   0.810   0.433   0.527   150   C     17-4    0-0   AMCC    Hilbert
gl   20   0.450   0.546   0.522   160   C     9-11    1-4   UAA     Carnegie Mellon

sac · February 15, 2014, 10:46:50 PM

Updated with todays results

GREAT LAKES
1 Wooster 19-2 20-3
2 Ohio Wesleyan 18-5 18-5
3 Mount Union 18-4 18-4
4 Marietta 17-5 18-5
5 Wittenberg 17-6 17-6
6 Hope 16-5 17-6
7 Bethany (W.Va.) 18-4 19-4

Wooster would probably still be an 'automatic C' if they lost in the NCAC tournament, not sure about Mt. Union now.

A little historical reference. Since we went to OWP/OOWP SOS calculations in 2008 and subsequent 'tweeks' that followed. Pool C's have been relatively scarce for this region with just 10 total selections and I think 4 or 5 of those went to teams that had won their regular season championship only to lose in their respective tournaments. We've received 9% of the 108 Pool C's handed out, the Great Lakes is roughly 9.9% of D3.

The MIAA and PAC have yet to receive a Pool C bid.

2008--Capital, Wooster
2009--Capital, Carnegie-Mellon
2010--John Carroll
2011--PSU-Behrend, Wittenberg
2012--Ohio Wesleyan, Wittenberg
2013--Wooster

sac · February 15, 2014, 10:48:26 PM

QuoteGL 05 0.818 0.505 0.583 049 A 18-4 1-0 PrAC Bethany

I watched quite a bit of their game with St. Vincent. Should they find their way into the tournament they could give someone a tougher game than they want in the first round. Good defensive team.

KnightSlappy · February 15, 2014, 10:52:15 PM

I have Ohio Wesleyan still as 'bubble-in'.

OAC loser looks very bubble, maybe leaning bubble-out.

Wittenberg certainly looks bubble-out for now.

Wooster is heading for a lock. Hope looks in good shape for a C.

Bethany looks bubble-out.

I'm not seeing it for anyone else.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 18, 2014, 12:02:46 AM

FYI regarding the PAC tie-breaker (from a source): Saint Vincent holds the tiebreaker over Bethany at this moment for the top seed in the conference tournament and controls its own fate.

"Tiebreaking criteria is as follows: 1) head to head; 2) Matching wins vs. higher seeds; 3) Record vs. common opponents; 4) In-Region Strength of Schedule; 5) Out of Region Strength of Schedule 6) Coin toss."

SVC and Bethany split. Bethany lost at Thomas More on Jan. 22, 82-74 (OT) and Saint Vincent defeated TMC 75-61 on Jan. 18...Thomas More is nearly locked into the third seed in the PAC (can finish with no more than 5 losses, next lowest is 7). Thus if Saint Vincent and Bethany win out (Thomas More losing out), Saint Vincent would hold the tiebreaker on matching wins vs higher seeds, 2-0 vs #3 TMC as opposed to Bethany's 1-1.

sac · February 18, 2014, 12:02:16 PM

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 18, 2014, 12:02:46 AM
FYI regarding the PAC tie-breaker (from a source): Saint Vincent holds the tiebreaker over Bethany at this moment for the top seed in the conference tournament and controls its own fate.

"Tiebreaking criteria is as follows: 1) head to head; 2) Matching wins vs. higher seeds; 3) Record vs. common opponents; 4) In-Region Strength of Schedule; 5) Out of Region Strength of Schedule 6) Coin toss."

SVC and Bethany split. Bethany lost at Thomas More on Jan. 22, 82-74 (OT) and Saint Vincent defeated TMC 75-61 on Jan. 18...Thomas More is nearly locked into the third seed in the PAC (can finish with no more than 5 losses, next lowest is 7). Thus if Saint Vincent and Bethany win out (Thomas More losing out), Saint Vincent would hold the tiebreaker on matching wins vs higher seeds, 2-0 vs #3 TMC as opposed to Bethany's 1-1.

Thomas More plays both St. Vincent and Bethany this week. If Thomas More wins both they would at minimum tie for the conference championship and would hold a better overall head-to-head record between St. Vincent, Thomas More and Bethany at 3-1.

I would think Thomas More would get the 1 seed in that scenario.

Thomas More would also get the 2 seed if they finish in a tie with Bethany and beat them a second time.

If they beat St. Vincent and end up tied with with St. Vincent I think they would have to go to tie-breaker #3 to settle that, would depend on Thomas More's second result vs Bethany.

Thomas More controls a lot of its own destiny here.