Great Lakes Region

[sac]

We have had the 1.25 to 0.75 multiplier in place for several years (even going through a tweek of those numbers). It is an effort for teams that always want to play at home to stop being rewarded for playing tough schedules in their friendly confines every single year.

I seem to be aware of the multiplier Dave, I'm not sure you're really following what KS and I are discussing.

[sac]

RvRRO's   --I did both inside and outside the Great Lakes Region for simplicity.

1.  Marietta  4-0  (St. Vincent, JCU, Mt. U, Eastern Conn)
2.  OWU  2-2 ( Hope, Wooster, Wooster)
3.  Wooster  3-2 (St.Vincent, Mt. Union, Hope, OWU, OWU)
4.  Case Western 2-2  (NYU, Emory, WashU, WashU)
5.  Hope 2-3  (Whitewater, Stevens Point, Mt. Union, OWU, Wooster)
6.  St. Vincent 1-2  (Marietta, Wooster, Mt. Union
7.  Mt. Union  1-4 (St. Vincent, Wooster, Hope, Marietta, John Carroll)
8.  John Carroll  1-2 (Marietta, St. Norbert, Mt. Union)
9.  PSU-Behrend 2-0  (William Patterson, Misericordia)

[sac]

Heard it twice "from the inside" now.

"Hope's sos really helped them."

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Hard to ignore a .565 right now... however, other criteria for everyone and changing SOS numbers in the future could change that situation. Also, I have heard it often as well: false SOS numbers are not going to be rewarded. In other words, nice SOS but if you can't win with it you aren't going to be rewarded (i.e. Carthage last year). Hope can't lose too many more games are they are going to find themselves on the outside looking in.

[ziggy]

Hard to ignore a .565 right now... however, other criteria for everyone and changing SOS numbers in the future could change that situation. Also, I have heard it often as well: false SOS numbers are not going to be rewarded. In other words, nice SOS but if you can't win with it you aren't going to be rewarded (i.e. Carthage last year). Hope can't lose too many more games are they are going to find themselves on the outside looking in.

This is why I mentioned the inclusion of results vs. regionally ranked opponents in the coming weeks. Not sure the committee will be as willing to reward a team whose foundation is built on SOS if they see a 2-5 in that column.

[sac]

Hard to ignore a .565 right now... however, other criteria for everyone and changing SOS numbers in the future could change that situation. Also, I have heard it often as well: false SOS numbers are not going to be rewarded. In other words, nice SOS but if you can't win with it you aren't going to be rewarded (i.e. Carthage last year). Hope can't lose too many more games are they are going to find themselves on the outside looking in.

This is why I mentioned the inclusion of results vs. regionally ranked opponents in the coming weeks. Not sure the committee will be as willing to reward a team whose foundation is built on SOS if they see a 2-5 in that column.

Walk it through though........

St. Vincent is 2-2, they won't pick up anymore RvRROs unless Trine is ranked, that would make them 2-3, they have a much worse loss to Wooster than  Hope and a loss to Mt. Union who Hope beat

Mt. Union is 1-4, they will pick up Marietta and probably John Carroll next unless they win both of those their RvRRO's isn't likely to look better.  SOS still weaker than Hope and have a head-to-head loss to Hope

John Carroll is 1-2, they will pick Marietta and probably Mt. Union, win both  and they're 3-2 but still have pretty big SOS gap with Hope

PSU-Behrend is 2-0 they will not add anymore  RvRRO games and may lose Misericordia who is #7 in the 7-team ranked Atlantic.



Calvin is 2-2 right now plus whatever Saturday's result with Trine is if the other is ranked next week
Trine is 4-3 right now plus whatvever Saturday's result with Calvin is if the other is ranked next week
being a head-to-head game the loser is unlikely to be ranked meaning Hope's RvRRO will probably be 2-5 if Calvin is ranked, or 3-4 if Trine is ranked

Calvin and Trine both have SOS gaps against Hope that will be difficult to breach.  Based solely on the introduction of RvRRO's who do you move ahead of Hope that isn't already?

These are the only two I see you could move ahead of Hope (Calvin can close the SOS gap + 2-0 head-to-head) (Trine's SOS is still very poor compared to Hope, even head-to-head)

But here's the rub.  The only way Hope makes it as a C is to make the MIAA Final which means one of these two is eliminated and being that the definition of Pool C is to lose your last game would mean the other gets the AQ.  So these two really don't matter relative to Hope's Pool C chances.

Hope is in a very good position guys, if they keep winning they won't drop unless JCU or Mt Union beat Marietta.

Hard to ignore a .565 right now... however, other criteria for everyone and changing SOS numbers in the future could change that situation. Also, I have heard it often as well: false SOS numbers are not going to be rewarded. In other words, nice SOS but if you can't win with it you aren't going to be rewarded (i.e. Carthage last year). Hope can't lose too many more games are they are going to find themselves on the outside looking in.

  I'm well aware of where Hope stands and how slim of a margin they have.

[sac]

Mount Union 102 Marietta 92

I don't think it changes much.   Mounts win over Marietta, same as Hope over OWU.  Hope still owns head-to-head over Mount.  I'd slide Mount ahead of St. Vincent maybe, but St. V has head-to-head over Mt. U.  Mt. U got a nice SOS boost tonight but not enough to close gap with Hope.

John Carroll 108  Baldwin-Wallace 106  OT
probably ends BW's chances at ranking.  JCU hosts Marietta Saturday.


Ohio Wesleyan 81  Wabash 80

[iwumichigander]

Mount Union 102 Marietta 92

I don't think it changes much.   Mounts win over Marietta, same as Hope over OWU.  Hope still owns head-to-head over Mount.  I'd slide Mount ahead of St. Vincent maybe, but St. V has head-to-head over Mt. U.  Mt. U got a nice SOS boost tonight but not enough to close gap with Hope.

John Carroll 108  Baldwin-Wallace 106  OT
probably ends BW's chances at ranking.  JCU hosts Marietta Saturday.


Ohio Wesleyan 81  Wabash 80

oh Sac it potentially changes the landscape particularly of MC loses to JCU Saturday which I think would mean MC would have to win the AQ or will be on the bubble?

[sac]

Marietta with 3 losses would be interesting.  Their SOS will go above .500 this weekend, that's what would have held them back in Pool C.

I don't think it changes the rankings if we did them tomorrow.  That's all I meant.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Hard to ignore a .565 right now... however, other criteria for everyone and changing SOS numbers in the future could change that situation. Also, I have heard it often as well: false SOS numbers are not going to be rewarded. In other words, nice SOS but if you can't win with it you aren't going to be rewarded (i.e. Carthage last year). Hope can't lose too many more games are they are going to find themselves on the outside looking in.

This is why I mentioned the inclusion of results vs. regionally ranked opponents in the coming weeks. Not sure the committee will be as willing to reward a team whose foundation is built on SOS if they see a 2-5 in that column.

Yes... that is why the term "results versus regionally ranked opponents" is so important to understand. It isn't a WL% thing (despite what one coach tried to argue on my show last season)... they do want to look at the results. Furthermore, if those five losses are to the top of regional rankings and the two wins are at the bottom - that is significant as well.

They really do look at all of the criteria.

[KnightSlappy]

Here's what we're looking at through Wednesday, separated by rough RPI tiers. After Calvin there's another gap before Carnegie Mellon.

RG   ##   WP      bSOS    bRPI    NAT   Pool   D3      RRO   CONFER   TEAM
GL   01   0.955   0.504   0.617   013   A      21-1    4-1   OAC      Marietta

GL   02   0.773   0.554   0.609   020   C      17-5    3-2   NCAC     Wooster
GL   03   0.706   0.572   0.605   022   C      12-5    2-2   UAA      Case Western Reserve
GL   04   0.818   0.532   0.604   023   A      18-4    2-1   NCAC     Ohio Wesleyan

GL   05   0.700   0.557   0.593   034   C      14-6    2-3   MIAA     Hope
GL   06   0.773   0.526   0.588   042   C      17-5    2-4   OAC      Mount Union

GL   07   0.762   0.509   0.572   061   C      16-5    1-2   OAC      John Carroll
GL   08   0.714   0.521   0.569   073   A      15-6    2-2   PrAC     St. Vincent
GL   09   0.909   0.453   0.567   077   A      20-2    1-1   AMCC     Penn State-Behrend
gl   10   0.750   0.506   0.567   078   A      15-5    2-1   MIAA     Calvin


Calvin will probably jump into the rankings if they can beat Trine on Saturday. Anywhere from 9th all the way up to 5th is possible.

[sac]

NYU 94 Case Western 73

That drops Case's win% below .700, very strong SOS, 2-3 RvRRo, some opportunity for teams behind them to move up this weekend.

[sac]

John Carroll 86  Marietta 71

First thought is this really complicates things a bit.  Mt. Union plays at John Carroll next Wednesday.

[sac]

Hope loses 91-84 at alma.   Pool c chances probably done.

[KnightSlappy]

I'll update final numbers after tomorrow's games, but looking like:

1. Marietta, even with the two losses this week.
2. Ohio Wesleyan
3. Wooster
4. Case Western Reserve
5. Mount Union
6. John Carroll
7. Calvin
8. Hope
9. St. Vincent

Still tricky 5-8. I could see those teams slotting in almost any order. Question is does Calvin's 2-0 over Hope bring them up above Mount Union, or does it bring Hope down below Calvin?

All I know is St. Vincent is behind Calvin. Could make an argument for .914 Penn State-Behrend being in the mix as well.