Great Lakes Region

[sac]

I understand sac... I was basing my thought on the head-to-head comment. There is a lot in play.

I will say this... .667 WL% will probably eliminate Hope from being an at-large team. I have been basically told as much... just as I have heard from others that teams below .500 in SOS probably won't get in either. Just some extra information for people to ponder.

You're still basically arguing against something I never said.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

sac - what you highlighted wasn't arguing with you... as the last sentence stated... it was extra information to ponder.

[sac]

I look forward to these February lectures.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

sac - lecture? I was sharing information I have gathered over the last few weeks. I thought you would want to know items that seem important. Where in the world do you think I am lecturing?

[David Collinge]

If I may, I think maybe you are talking past each other here. If I understand correctly, SAC is pointing out that a relatively highly ranked Hope would be an accurate reflection of the criteria, including their HtH wins versus other GL contenders, whereas Dave is saying that, regardless of Hope's relative position within the GL, they are DOA on the national Pool C table, and might be ranked ahead of other GL teams whose resumes might be stronger for Pool C consideration. Hence, "blocking."

As a purist (hah!), I would hope that the GL committee would not take this into consideration when doing the regional rankings. I don't believe that "stronger national resume" is one of the criteria. But as a purist, I would also hope that the regional committees apply the same criteria in the same way as the national committee, making it impossible for a lower-ranked team to have a stronger national resume.

I also hope for world peace, btw.

[wally_wabash]

Agree with DC here.  If Hope's portfolio is better than other GL teams when blinded to the rest of the nation, but not better than those same GL teams when we include the rest of the nation, then we're probably doing something wrong with the criteria.  This bit of nuance pops up in football also, so it's not just a hoops thing.  The idea that committees might rank teams based on who they think would get selected nationally also leaves some conspiracy threads dangling about that we could do without. 

[Pat Coleman]

Looks like yesterday was a good day to be stuck in project management training all day and not on the boards.

[sac]

Emory 71 Case Western 65

That about does it for CW's pool c chances.

[sac]

Wednesday games
Otterbein 69 at Marietta 95
Oberlin 76 at Ohio Wesleyan 106
Allegheny 63 at Wooster 80
Kalamazoo 55 at Hope 67
Thiel 58 at St.Vincent 78
Mt. Union 81 at John Carroll 88
Hilbert 60 at PSU-Behrend 64
Calvin 87 at Olivet 74
Mt. St. Joeseph 82 at Anderson 69


Friday
Emory 71 at Case Western 55

Saturday's games
Ohio Wesleyan 86 at DePauw 77
Wooster 58 at Oberlin 45
Adrian 41 at Hope 56
Thomas More 72 at St. Vincent 81
Mt. Union 74 at Wilmington 71
Pitt-Greensburg 64 at PSU-Behrend 91
Calvin 71 at Albion 54

Going into tomorrow Mt Union and Case Western are the only two ranked teams to lose a game this week.

Sunday
Rochester (9-13) at Case Western (15-7)
Muskingum (6-18) at John Carroll (18-5)
Mt. St. Joeseph (19-5) at Rose-Hulman (14-10)
Ohio Northern (12-12) at Marietta (22-2)
Defiance (18-6) at Franklin (5-19)

[KnightSlappy]

Case losses to Rochester at home, they're in danger of falling out of the rankings.

[sac]

Case losses to Rochester at home, they're in danger of falling out of the rankings.

I think they have to be out don't they?

Marietta, OWU, Wooster, John Carroll, Calvin, PSU-Behrend all won.  For the last three spots its probably....

Mt. Union                 19-6    .760/.530/2-5
Case Western         13-8   .619/.575/2-4
Hope                       16-7     .696/.543/2-5
St. Vincent              18-6      .750/.515/2-2
Mt. St. Joeseph       18-6      .750/.475/0-1
Defiance                   18-6     .739/.481/0-1            **currently playing Franklin at time of this post
Wabash                  13-8      .619/.516/2-2
Baldwin Wallace      16-8     .667/.493/0-7
Trine                        16-8     .667/.488/3-4

DePauw and Hilbert have awful SOS numbers. The bolded teams clearly have the best criteria of this bunch.

The SOS numbers are current from ks' blog.

Mt. Union still has the problem of losing to both Hope and St. Vincent.
 
If its close between Hope/St. Vincent again, comparative scores is still in Hope's favor (esp vs Wooster)

[KnightSlappy]

I think Ohio Wesleyan is very close to Marietta, but I think the Pioneers stay on top. Their only two losses are to regionally ranked opponents.

RG   ##   WP      bSOS    bRPI    NAT   Pool   D3      RRO   CONFER   TEAM
GL   01   0.920   0.506   0.610   018   A      23-2    3-2   OAC      Marietta
GL   02   0.840   0.534   0.610   016   A      21-4    3-1   NCAC     Ohio Wesleyan
GL   03   0.800   0.542   0.607   020   C      20-5    2-2   NCAC     Wooster
GL   04   0.792   0.516   0.585   043   C      19-5    3-2   OAC      John Carroll
GL   05   0.760   0.530   0.587   040   C      19-6    2-4   OAC      Mount Union
GL   06   0.783   0.502   0.572   069   A      18-5    2-1   MIAA     Calvin
GL   07   0.920   0.458   0.573   067   A      23-2    0-1   AMCC     Penn State-Behrend
GL   08   0.696   0.543   0.581   048   C      16-7    2-5   MIAA     Hope
GL   09   0.750   0.515   0.574   065   A      18-6    2-2   PrAC     St. Vincent
---
gl   10   0.619   0.560   0.575   062   C      13-8    2-4   UAA      Case Western Reserve



Mount Union and John Carroll are very close. I'll give the edge to JCU's 3-2 record vRRO. It gets messy starting with the #6 spot again. I'll just bump Case down and everyone else up. Also, it's not a stated criterion, but I think the committees DO look at how teams finish (e.g. final 25% of season), and Case has now lost 5 of 6.

Case may very well be in there, but the committee has been averse to ranking anyone below a .667 winning percentage. If they make it in, it's probably St. Vincent on the outside.

If either Calvin or Hope win the MIAA Tournament, they could end up as high as #3 in the final secret rankings, depending on what happens in the other conferences.

[EttaFan1]

I'm not sure how Case would bump St. Vincent anywhere (as St. Vincent and Case is trying for an at large bid). 

I'm also not sure how Case would have a shot with a host of other teams having much stronger resumes for the pool c bid. 

I'd say Case's season is done.

[KnightSlappy]

GREAT LAKES         
Rank   School   In-Region Record   Overall Record
1   Marietta   23-2   23-2
2   Ohio Wesleyan   21-4   21-4
3   Wooster   20-5   20-5
4   John Carroll   19-5   19-5
5   Mount Union   19-6   19-6
6   Penn St.-Behrend   23-2   23-2
7   Calvin   18-5   19-6
8   Saint Vincent   18-6   19-6
9   Hope   16-7   17-8

Link: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2015/02/25/final-public-ncaa-regional-rankings-released/

[sac]

Really don't agree with PSU-Behrend being ahead of Calvin or  St. Vincent ahead of Hope.

PSU-Behrend's SOS is atrocious at .458

Hope/St. Vincent is close and all the common opponent comparison scores they are supposed to look at are in Hope's favor.