Great Lakes Region

[KnightSlappy]

Really don't agree with PSU-Behrend being ahead of Calvin or  St. Vincent ahead of Hope.

PSU-Behrend's SOS is atrocious at .458

Hope/St. Vincent is close and all the common opponent comparison scores they are supposed to look at are in Hope's favor.

I think you can justify any of it, except I don't see Hope below St. Vincent. Common opponents are the same (both lost to Wooster) except St. Vincent lost a neutral site game with Trine and Hope split a home-and-home. As far as RvRRO, St. Vincent beat Catholic and Hope beat Ohio Wesleyan (both beat Mt. Union). In addition Hope has losses to Calvin (x2), Whitewater, and Stevens Point. St. Vincent has a loss to Marietta.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

One thing I do hear from some as time goes on... eventually WL% can't be ignored just for the SOS being too high or too low. All three teams like PSU-Behrend (PSU-Behrend, Albertus Magnus, St. Norbert) moved up or at least held firm (for SNC in a tough Central) and that tells me the WL% factor is at least being semi-respected.

[sac]

This is where the inconsistency of this poll gets people.  The first two polls Hope is ahead of St. Vincent, even after Hope lost to Alma.  St. Vincent did nothing last week that should have moved them ahead of Hope.

....and neither did PSU-Behrend do anything that should have moved them ahead of Calvin.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

FYI - they don't look at where the teams were and if they should move them up or down. They pretty much clean the slate and start over each and every week and have a discussions about each head-to-head and multiple team situations. This isn't like the Top 25 where I consider why I had a team #10 and if I should move them up and down and in comparison to another team. The regional and national committees start fresh each time.

IF you look at it from that point of view... start from the beginning again and rank as if you never ranked before... some of this might make more sense, I would assume (since I am busy right now hitting refresh/F5 to get the women's rankings published).

[KnightSlappy]

This is where the inconsistency of this poll gets people.  The first two polls Hope is ahead of St. Vincent, even after Hope lost to Alma.  St. Vincent did nothing last week that should have moved them ahead of Hope.

....and neither did PSU-Behrend do anything that should have moved them ahead of Calvin.

Hope gained .029 in WP and lost .009 in SOS from last week.
St. Vincent gained .023 in WP and gained .003 in SOS from last week.

So, St. Vincent DID gain ground, according to the criteria.

What gets me every time is the idea that "at some point" SOS or WP (or whatever) needs to win out. It would seem impossible to avoid bad artificial boundaries that way, even if they're not intentional boundaries.

The perception between .499 and .501 SOS is huge, bigger than the actual difference. Likewise .699 and .701 WP.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Well if you are taking the words from me "at some point" that is my words - no one elses. I think they look at the two comparatively to see how the SOS and WL% compare to one another to understand each set of numbers better. What I am getting at is that I think ... at some point ... if a team is still winning, the committees start to at least acknowledge that despite maybe a poor SOS. Considering the fact the SOS numbers are always changing.

[sac]

Hope compares better to St. Vincent in 3 of the 4 primary criteria.  Just as they did 2 weeks ago and last week.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There are six primary criteria ... how do they compare in the other two? (Again, I am busy hitting refresh on the women's rankings - or I would look into it myself.)

Another thought - the committee apparently doesn't consider each category as a "win" or a "loss" when comparing teams. Learned that the other day when I mentioned it - they look at all the data and see who has better data. That isn't going to make things easier for us, as I like a "win" or "loss" in a category to make it easier.

Also, go outside of just the two teams. If you started comparing another team right around Hope and St. Vincent and make it a three-team comparison, what does it do to your rankings thinking. I know the committees sometimes do that. They may look at Team A and Team B and come up with an answer. They then take Team B and compare it to Team C and come up with another answer. Then they compare Team C with Team A and get a different answer then they expected... resulting in looking at all three teams together. That can change rankings quickly.

[KnightSlappy]

There are five primary criteria (WP, SOS, RvRRO, Common Opponents, H2H), and one (head-to-head) is not applicable in this case.

I'm still not sure I would consider 2-5 to be "better" than 2-2, just not worse.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Sorry - I added wrong LOL

[Bishopleftiesdad]

GREAT LAKES         

Rank	School	In-Region Record	Overall Record
1	Marietta	23-2	23-2
2	Ohio Wesleyan	21-4	21-4
3	Wooster	20-5	20-5
4	John Carroll	19-5	19-5
5	Mount Union	19-6	19-6
6	Penn St.-Behrend	23-2	23-2
7	Calvin	18-5	19-6
8	Saint Vincent	18-6	19-6
9	Hope	16-7	17-8

Link: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2015/02/25/final-public-ncaa-regional-rankings-released/

[sac]

Early look at in-region records among Great Lakes Region teams.  Let me know if I missed any.  I counted a couple games against Illinois Tech that I'm not sure should count  (Wabash, Denison)  I'll narrow this list down a bit more after next Sunday's games.

If we were ranking them today, at least one and probably 2 of those teams above the .700 line wouldn't be ranked.


Updated thru Wed 1/10
       
John Carroll                13-0
Hope                           10-0
Ohio Wesleyan            12-1
Hiram                          11-1
PSU-Behrend              10-1

------------------------.900

Marietta                      11-2
Hilbert                         11-2
Trine                           10-2

------------------------.800

St. Vincent                10-3
Mt. Union                    9-3

------------------------.700

Alma                            9-4
Wooster                       8-4
Mt. St. Joseph            8-4
Grove City                   8-4
Thomas More              8-4
Case Western               8-4
Manchester                  7-4
Wittenberg                   8-5
Baldwin-Wallace           8-5
Heidelberg                    8-5
Pitt-Greensburg           8-5
Calvin                           6-4

------------------------.600

Wabash                        7-5
Denison                       7-5
Hanover                       7-5
Capital                          7-5
Bethany                        7-5
Oberlin                          6-5
Carnegie-Mellon            6-5
Adrian                          5-5
Bluffton                        5-5

-----------------------------------.500

DePauw                          6-7
Defiance                         6-7
Rose-Hulman                 6-7
Kenyon                          5-6
Albion                            4-6


Kind of a big week at the top of several Great Lakes conferences, all of these games are between teams either tied at the top of their conferences or between current 1st and 2nd place teams

MIAA    1/13  Hope at Alma   
NCAC   1/13  Hiram at Wooster
HCAC    1/13  Hanover at Mt. St. Joseph

OAC      1/16  Mt. Union at John Carroll
PAC       1/16  Thomas More at St. Vincent
AMCC   1/16  Hilbert at Pitt Greensburg

[sac]

Updated thru Sun 1/17
       
John Carroll                 15-0
Ohio Wesleyan            14-1
PSU-Behrend               12-1
Hope                           11-1

------------------------.900

Marietta                      13-2
Hilbert                         13-2
St. Vincent                  12-3

------------------------.800

Trine                             11-3
Hiram                            11-3
Alma                             11-4
Mt. Union                      10-4
Mt. St. Joseph              10-4

------------------------.700

Wittenberg                   10-5
Baldwin-Wallace           10-5
Wooster                       9-5
Grove City                     9-5
Thomas More                9-5
Bethany                        9-5
Manchester                   8-5
Oberlin                          8-5
Heidelberg                    9-6
Pitt-Greensburg            9-6

------------------------.600

Calvin                             7-5
Case Western                 8-6
Denison                          8-6
Hanover                          8-6
Kenyon                           7-6
Defiance                         8-7
Wabash                         7-7
Capital                           7-7
Albion                            6-6
-----------------------------------.500



Dropped :   DePauw, Rose-Hulman, Carnegie-Mellon, Adrian, Bluffton.   All now below .500 with at least 7 in-region losses, pretty unrealistic ranking possibilities at this point in the season.

Northcoast:
Still many teams in play, though that realism could be debated.  Witt's win over Wooster gives them a punchers chance now and puts Wooster precariously close to that edge of being on the outside looking in to the NCAA tournament.

MIAA:
Focus switches to Alma, Trine and Albion as those 3 teams meet in the next 3 game days.  We'll throw in a Calvin/Hope game next week.  Two big games for Alma this week. 

OAC:
John Carroll took a big step last week to an OAC title beating Mt. Union.  This week Mt. Union and Marietta meet on Wednesday and we're getting to the point Mt. Union really can't afford more losses with their schedule remaining, loser probably falls two games back. 

HCAC:
Mt. St. Joseph won two last week improving their viability as a possible ranked team.  Pretty quiet week coming up in the HCAC

PAC:
St. Vincent can virtually slam the door shut on the PAC crown if Bethany beats Grove City and then St. V beats Bethany next week.  3 game lead with 4 weeks to go would be just about a lock.

AMCC:
PSU-Behrend and Hilbert clash on Monday, winner takes over the top spot in the league.


Monday game
Hilbert at PSU-Behrend

Wednesday games
Alma at Trine
Denison at Hiram
Oberlin at Ohio Wesleyan
Wittenberg at Kenyon
John Carroll at Baldwin-Wallace
Marietta at Mt. Union
Grove City at Bethany

Saturday games
Albion at Alma
Denison at Ohio Wesleyan
Kenyon at Hiram
Oberlin at Wabash
Defiance at Mt. St. Joseph
Heidelberg at Marietta
St. Vincent at Bethany


Final random thought:   I'm not sure when the last NCAA tournament without Calvin, Wooster or Wittenberg took place, if ever, but that is a real possibility this year.

[sac]

knightslappy's RPI data for a closer look:  http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

I think what his data really shows is how difficult it will be for St. Vincent, Hilbert, PSU-Behrend, Hiram and Mt. St. Joseph to receive a ranking due to SOS. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

knightslappy's RPI data for a closer look:  http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

I think what his data really shows is how difficult it will be for St. Vincent, Hilbert, PSU-Behrend, Hiram and Mt. St. Joseph to receive a ranking due to SOS.

But it does happen every year. I know everyone loves the SOS and understands the men's committee(s) looks at it seriously... but that doesn't mean the WL% and other criteria is ignored. They might not get ranked high, but we have seen in numerous situations where a low SOS with a very, very good WL% still get ranked.