Great Lakes Region

[sac]

Two significant losses in the GL region last night

St. Vincent lost to Waynesburg last night 73-64.  For ranking purposes that's a significant 6th loss and for the moment puts them behind about a dozen GL teams with better win%.   With St. Vincent's pretty poor SOS,  pool C chances probably went down the drain last night, at a minimum circling the drain fast. 


Good news is it didn't affect their grip on the PAC title with Bethany beating Thomas More, so St. Vincent maintains its 2 game lead.


Mt. St. Joseph also picked up in-region loss #6 last night to Anderson 88-71.  With their SOS also below .500 they are likely looking at pool C chances circling the drain.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Two significant losses in the GL region last night

St. Vincent lost to Waynesburg last night 73-64.  For ranking purposes that's a significant 6th loss and for the moment puts them behind about a dozen GL teams with better win%.   With St. Vincent's pretty poor SOS,  pool C chances probably went down the drain last night, at a minimum circling the drain fast. 


Good news is it didn't affect their grip on the PAC title with Bethany beating Thomas More, so St. Vincent maintains its 2 game lead.


Mt. St. Joseph also picked up in-region loss #6 last night to Anderson 88-71.  With their SOS also below .500 they are likely looking at pool C chances circling the drain.

Looking at the rest of the region and looking at these two, I think both's Pool C chances are done. I thought they were both done before they lost last night. The good news is that I think St. Vincent is still the heavy favorite to win the conference tournament while the HCAC is going to be a free for all battle royal.

[KnightSlappy]

Two significant losses in the GL region last night

St. Vincent lost to Waynesburg last night 73-64.  For ranking purposes that's a significant 6th loss and for the moment puts them behind about a dozen GL teams with better win%.   With St. Vincent's pretty poor SOS,  pool C chances probably went down the drain last night, at a minimum circling the drain fast. 


Good news is it didn't affect their grip on the PAC title with Bethany beating Thomas More, so St. Vincent maintains its 2 game lead.


Mt. St. Joseph also picked up in-region loss #6 last night to Anderson 88-71.  With their SOS also below .500 they are likely looking at pool C chances circling the drain.

Looking at the rest of the region and looking at these two, I think both's Pool C chances are done. I thought they were both done before they lost last night. The good news is that I think St. Vincent is still the heavy favorite to win the conference tournament while the HCAC is going to be a free for all battle royal.

Agreed. I don't believe St. Vincent could get their Pool C record above .800 at this point. Not going to get in with a .700s WP and a sub-.500 SOS.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Reminder, which Brian Van Haaften stated on Hoopsville yesterday (and has been stated several times in the past), in the SOS era NO team has received an at-large bid with a sub .500 SOS.

Now, I see a few scenarios this year that could call that tendency and philosophy into question and I hope you heard those on Hoopsville yesterday (don't worry, I am sure they will be repeated if the tendencies continue)... but keep that in mind. NO team with a sub-.500 SOS has ever received an at-large bid on the men's side.

[KnightSlappy]

Reminder, which Brian Van Haaften stated on Hoopsville yesterday (and has been stated several times in the past), in the SOS era NO team has received an at-large bid with a sub .500 SOS.

Now, I see a few scenarios this year that could call that tendency and philosophy into question and I hope you heard those on Hoopsville yesterday (don't worry, I am sure they will be repeated if the tendencies continue)... but keep that in mind. NO team with a sub-.500 SOS has ever received an at-large bid on the men's side.

I'm not sure that's true.

I have 2012 Birmingham-Southern as having a .917 WP and .441 SOS (and, I think, 0-0 vRRO!).

Also I think St. Joseph's (L.I.) had a .470 SOS that same year with an .870 WP and 1-0 vRRO.

2010:
Anderson at .477
MIT at .498 (calc discrepancies could put them over)

2011:
Concordia (Wis.) at .497 (see MIT above)
Penn State-Behrend at .481
Oswego St. at .482
Amherst at .463
Texas-Dallas at .488

I don't see any in 2013-2015.

I'm not sure when we first noticed the NCAA's odd SOS calculation method, so my numbers could be off some in these earlier years, but I'm certain at least one of these ended the year sub-.500 on the SOS. I have no idea if there's a way to confirm these historical numbers.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I can go back and check... but I have had many a chair and others mention that to me. Maybe they are wrong... but it something that has stuck in my head.

[sac]

Updated thru Sun 2/7
       
John Carroll                     21-0
PSU-Behrend                  19-1
Hope                               17-1
Ohio Wesleyan                 19-2
Marietta                           19-2

------------------------.900

Hilbert                           18-4

------------------------.800

Alma                             16-5
St. Vincent                   16-5
Wooster                        15-5
Hiram                            15-5
Mt. Union                      14-5
Mt. St. Joseph              14-6
Trine                             14-6

------------------------.700

Pitt-Greensburg            14-7
Grove City                     13-7
Bethany                        13-7
Wittenberg                    13-8
Denison                        12-8
Thomas More                12-8

------------------------.600

-----------------------------------.500


Dropped: Dropped Hanover, Manchester, Oberlin and Calvin who reach 9 losses.

Northcoast:   OWU and Wooster are still tied with Wooster has the big week a road trip to Hiram and hosting rivals Wittenberg on Saturday

MIAA:  Alma and Hope are now tied,  Trine gets Hope at home on Wed. and travel to Alma Saturday in two games that will determine their Pool C viability.

OAC:   Big week for Marietta as they host Mt. Union on Wed and John Carroll on Saturday.

PAC:  St. Vincent leads now by 2 full games over Bethany. 

HCAC:  MSJ lead down to 1 over Defiance, but have only Hanover remaining as the only true tough game left.

AMCC:  PSU-Behrend leads by 2 games in the loss column over Hilbert and Greensburg, and play both the following week.  Pitt-Greensburg travels to Hilbert on Saturday

Wednesday Games
Hope at Trine
Wooster at Hiram
Mt. Union at Marietta

Saturday
Trine at Alma
Oberlin at Hiram
Wittenberg at Wooster
Pitt-Greensburg at Hilbert
Grove  City at St. Vincent
John Carroll at Marietta

[sac]

Knightslappy's data is updated through 2/8
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/


First official ranking is Wed.  I think I would go

1.  John Carroll
2.  Marietta
3.  Ohio Wesleyan
4.  Hope
5.  Alma
6.  Wooster
7.  Mt. Union
8.  Trine
9.  PSU-Behrend

I think you could make a case for both Alma and Wooster to be ahead of Hope but maybe a weak one, and even a case for Hiram to be in the poll over PSU-Behrend, but I could also see Behrend being as high as #5 or #6.

Those big OAC matchups and Trine's two big games this week  should really shake things up, so week 1 is really a rough draft in this region.

[sac]

per the whole conversation about great records and poor SOS.  There are 4 of those types of teams to watch how they're ranked on Wednesday.

NE---Johnson & Wales    19-1    .455
E-----Lancaster Bible      17-0    .421
GL---John Carroll            21-0    .498
GL---PSU-Behrend         18-1     .418

[Fifth and Putnam]

Knightslappy's data is updated through 2/8
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/


First official ranking is Wed.  I think I would go

1.  John Carroll
2.  Marietta
3.  Ohio Wesleyan
4.  Hope
5.  Alma
6.  Wooster
7.  Mt. Union
8.  Trine
9.  PSU-Behrend

I think you could make a case for both Alma and Wooster to be ahead of Hope but maybe a weak one, and even a case for Hiram to be in the poll over PSU-Behrend, but I could also see Behrend being as high as #5 or #6.

Those big OAC matchups and Trine's two big games this week  should really shake things up, so week 1 is really a rough draft in this region.

I think if Marietta can get a split this week and then take care of business on the road next week @Otterbein and @Ohio Northern I will feel pretty comfortable heading into the conference tournament. 22-3 with their SOS should be pretty safe regardless of what happens in the OAC Tournament. That said, I'd love to see them finish 26-2.

[sac]

Regional Rankings
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3/regional-rankings-0

[HOPEful]

Regional Rankings
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3/regional-rankings-0

Knightslappy's new avitar?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Or rather... http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2016/02/10/first-2016-regional-rankings-released-today/

[sac]

1.  John Carroll---lost
2.  Marietta---won
3.  Ohio Wesleyan--lost
4.  Hope---won
5.  Alma---won
6.  Wooster---lost
7.  Mt. Union---lost
8.  Hiram--won
9.  Trine---lost

PSU-Behrend---lost
Mt. St. Joseph---lost
Hilbert---idle
St. Vincent---won


Fun!

[HOPEful]

1.  John Carroll---lost
2.  Marietta---won
3.  Ohio Wesleyan--lost
4.  Hope---won
5.  Alma---won
6.  Wooster---lost
7.  Mt. Union---lost
8.  Hiram--won
9.  Trine---lost
PSU-Behrend---lost
Mt. St. Joseph---lost
Hilbert---idle
St. Vincent---won

And on Saturday...

Marietta hosts John Carrol, Alma hosts Trine, and Wooster hosts rival Wittenberg... So at least 2 more of these teams will get an L on Saturday.