Great Lakes Region

[HOPEful]

And I'd probably go...

1. Marietta
2. Hope
3. Mt. St. Joseph
4. John Carroll
5. Hanover
6. Denison
7. Capital
8. Mt. Union

I don't think you can rank JCU ahead of Hanover right now given Hanover beat JCU and has 3 fewer losses.

I understand and even to a certain extent agree with this point. However, JCU beat Marietta (my #1 team on the list) and has a chance to go for the season sweep this week. I think the two teams are pretty equal right now with JCU having more opportunities to improve their resume going forward. Losses to both Marietta and Mt. Union and I'd consider dropping JCU off the list entirely. A lot of basketball left to play out!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It's so weird seeing an NCAC team having such a low SOS...

The big obvious drag on their schedule is W&J (0-15) in Game #1. Brooklyn and Mt. St. Vincent over the holidays did nothing for them either (combined 6-26).

They have a good win over Ohio Northern...Case Western is so so..not awful but not a great win. Unfortunately, 2-3 games are absolutely killing the SOS.

I remember a few years back we had similar discussion over Marietta's SOS which was dragged down by La Roche who was 1-24 that year.

Don't tell our "favorite poster" that last fact about La Roche... though, he isn't around anymore... he swears that isn't a bad game on their schedule and that I (among others) don't understand why that game has to be scheduled and played (I apparently don't understand how travel and budgets work in Division III, but I digress). He also swears they found a "secret" at Marietta to work around these SOS things, but like everything else he claims... he didn't provide any proof when asked. Considering he lives in Minnesota and doesn't actually have a direct connection to the program... I am guessing he is making things up (shocking, I know).

Anyway... per the SOS, the numbers are hard to trust this time of year when conferences have only gotten in the first of the round-robin at most. Those numbers make some huge swings in the coming two or so weeks, thus why regional rankings tend not to come out earlier as many of us want (though, one more week isn't the end of the world).

[HOPEful]

Anyway... per the SOS, the numbers are hard to trust this time of year when conferences have only gotten in the first of the round-robin at most. Those numbers make some huge swings in the coming two or so weeks, thus why regional rankings tend not to come out earlier as many of us want (though, one more week isn't the end of the world).

When the SOS is that bad though, it's a minimum a red flag. When you look at their schedule more closely, OWU, @ Ohio Northern, and @ Wooster are the few wins that stand out. You could argue Hope's wins @Stout, vs. River Falls, @John Carroll, and at home against LaCross are all "better wins"... Same with Marietta's vs. Christopher Newport and at home against Mount Union.

So how much do you "punish" Hope for their losses to Stevens Point, Williams, and Wilkes (Wilkes being the obviously most egregious)... I guess it's subjective interpretation of what you find to be more telling; good wins or bad losses.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Well what did we learn today....

1. Marietta wins over John Carroll and probably solidifies their spot atop the region for now. Carroll with 6 losses now is probably in that danger zone here of falling off the Pool C table unless they can win out until the conference championship game.
2. Hanover keeps rolling knocking off Anderson in the big HCAC showdown and completes the season sweep over the Ravens who have had a pretty good year.
3. La Roche get's dumped twice this week and suddenly everyone is looking up at Medaille in the AMCC. Probably eliminates any chance of seeing a AMCC team in the Regional Rankings.
4. Hope keeps rolling along in the MIAA...we'll see how they handle Calvin on the road Wednesday.
5. I expected St. Vincent to step back this year graduating 8 seniors off last years squad. Nope. They've built a two game cushion in the PAC and are in danger of running away with their 4th straight conference title.
6. Denison dispatches Kenyon and moves to 16-1. 3 straight against Wittenberg, OWU, and Wooster though loom in the next couple of weeks.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

There have been enough losses this year, I could see an 8 loss team getting in with an excellent SOS.  8 is usually the max because they never take a team (or haven't yet) below .667 winning percentage - and you often need conference tourney games to get there with 8 losses.

[fantastic50]

My regional ranking today would look like this, based on a mix of winning percentage and SOS, weighting them similarly to what the committee seems to have done in the past. 

1) Marietta (OAC leader) 13-4, 0.608
2) Hanover (HCAC leader) 12-2, 0.530
3) Hope (MIAA leader) 12-3, 0.536
4) John Carroll (Pool C) 10-6, 0.595
5) Mount St. Joseph (Pool C) 13-3, 0.506
6) Denison (NCAC leader) 16-1, 0.445
7) Wooster (Pool C) 11-6, 0.554
8) Mount Union (Pool C) 11-6, 0.551
9) Capital (Pool C) 10-7, 0.569
X) St. Vincent (PrAC leader) 12-4, 0.495

If we were headed into conference tournaments today, only Marietta and Hanover would be safe, with Hope on the bubble without the AQ.  I can't recall a team with a sub-.500 SOS getting a Pool C berth recently, so Denison likely would be staying home at 26-2, if they won out except for the NCAC final.  Last year's Hope team is a good comparison for Denison; with a 21-2 record and .504 SOS, they were among the last teams selected in Pool C. 

In running the numbers as if the season ended today, I had zero GL teams getting a Pool C berth; what a turnaround that would be from last year.
http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1787145

[Fifth and Putnam]

There are two extra Pool C slots this year that we have not had in past years. Could come into play for someone like a John Carroll if they're really close on the bubble.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

There are two extra Pool C slots this year that we have not had in past years. Could come into play for someone like a John Carroll if they're really close on the bubble.

Could be true, just glad we get 64 this year.  Seems that more than a few folks are planning on those 2 extra Pool C slots helping out their team - but it's still only 2 more slots spread round 8 regions.

[sac]

My regional ranking today would look like this, based on a mix of winning percentage and SOS, weighting them similarly to what the committee seems to have done in the past. 

1) Marietta (OAC leader) 13-4, 0.608
2) Hanover (HCAC leader) 12-2, 0.530
3) Hope (MIAA leader) 12-3, 0.536
4) John Carroll (Pool C) 10-6, 0.595
5) Mount St. Joseph (Pool C) 13-3, 0.506
6) Denison (NCAC leader) 16-1, 0.445
7) Wooster (Pool C) 11-6, 0.554
8) Mount Union (Pool C) 11-6, 0.551
9) Capital (Pool C) 10-7, 0.569
X) St. Vincent (PrAC leader) 12-4, 0.495

If we were headed into conference tournaments today, only Marietta and Hanover would be safe, with Hope on the bubble without the AQ.  I can't recall a team with a sub-.500 SOS getting a Pool C berth recently, so Denison likely would be staying home at 26-2, if they won out except for the NCAC final.  Last year's Hope team is a good comparison for Denison; with a 21-2 record and .504 SOS, they were among the last teams selected in Pool C. 

In running the numbers as if the season ended today, I had zero GL teams getting a Pool C berth; what a turnaround that would be from last year.
http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1787145

Hope was in a little easier than some of us thought.  Here's last years Pool C list that Titan Q put together with where he thought they slotted.  All indications I got second hand from someone on the committee was that Hope made it without much difficulty and probably a slot or two higher than here..

2016 Pool C Selections (best guess at order)
1. St. Thomas (MIAC) .889/.564 (not updated)/11-1, W#1
2. Marietta (OAC) 0.893/0.556/5-3, GL#1
3. Susquehanna (LAND) 0.840/0.554/4-3, MA#2
4. Amherst (NESCAC) .815/.564/5-2, NE#1
5. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) 0.808/0.552/4-3, EA#1
6. Salisbury (CAC) 0.778/0.562/4-3, MA#3
7. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
8. North Central (CCIW) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
9. Tufts (NESCAC) 0.769/0.561/3-5, NE#3
10. Elmhurst (CCIW) 0.778/0.543/3-5, CE#5
11. Wooster (NCAC) 0.741/0.563/3-4, GL#6
12. Oswego State (SUNYAC) 0.714/0.552/6-2, EA#5
13. Trinity (NESCAC) 0.720/0.563/2-5, NE#2
14. WPI (NEWMAC) 0.769/0.521/5-3, NE#5
15. Hope (MIAA) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4   
16. LaGrange (USAC) 0.708/0.551/3-2, SO#6
17. Whitman (NWC) 0.840/0.509/1-2, W#3
18. Scranton (LAND) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
19. New York University (UAA) 0.800/0.509/3-3, EA#3

[sac]

This was posted earlier today on the Pool C board, I've highlighted the Great Lakes teams.

Through Sunday, Jan. 22, based on knightslappy's numbers posted at http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

43 Pool A berths (current conference leaders)
UW-River Falls (WIAC CE) 14-1, 0.606
Babson (NEWMAC NE) 16-1, 0.593
Washington U. (UAA CE) 13-3, 0.620
Whitman (NWC WE) 17-0, 0.541
Tufts (NESCAC NE) 15-2, 0.567
Marietta (OAC GL) 13-4, 0.608
Susquehanna (LAND MA) 14-2, 0.552
Lycoming (MACC MA) 15-2, 0.544
Ramapo (NJAC AT) 16-1, 0.504
Salisbury (CAC MA) 14-3, 0.546
Neumann (CSAC AT) 16-1, 0.499
Hanover (HCAC GL) 12-2, 0.530
Eastern Connecticut (LEC NE) 13-5, 0.578
St. Lawrence (LL EA) 14-2, 0.517
Augustana (CCIW CE) 14-3, 0.529
Hope (MIAA GL) 12-3, 0.536
St. John Fisher (E8 EA) 11-4, 0.557
Hardin-Simmons (ASC SO) 13-4, 0.544
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (SCIAC WE) 11-0, 0.447
Benedictine (NATHC ce) 12-3, 0.514
Brockport (SUNYAC EA) 14-3, 0.503
--- approximate cut line if teams were in Pool C ---
Endicott (CCC ne) 13-4, 0.521
Denison (NCAC GL) 16-1, 0.445
Buena Vista (IIAC WE) 11-6, 0.554
Randolph-Macon (ODAC SO) 12-5, 0.530
St. Johns (MIAC we) 12-3, 0.493
St. Norbert (MWC ce) 12-3, 0.482
St. Vincent (PrAC gl) 12-4, 0.495
Eastern (MACF AT) 10-7, 0.553
Becker (NECC ne) 10-4, 0.504
Franklin and Marshall (CC ma) 12-5, 0.505
Staten Island (CUNYAC at) 13-5, 0.495
Salem State (MASCAC ne) 11-7, 0.531
Albertus Magnus (GNAC ne) 13-3, 0.455
Gallaudet (NEAC ea) 13-3, 0.450
Husson (NAC ne) 10-5, 0.486
Greensboro (USAC so) 9-5, 0.491
Farmingdale State (SKY at) 11-5, 0.471
Northwestern (Minn.) (UMAC we) 12-5, 0.458
Medaille (AMCC gl) 12-4, 0.439
Westminster (Mo.) (SLIAC ce) 11-4, 0.441
Colorado College (SCAC we) 7-7, 0.514
Birmingham-Southern (SAA so) 9-9, 0.462

21 Pool C guesses (must have WP>=.667 and SOS>=.500)
1) Middlebury (NESCAC NE) 13-3, 0.628
2) Rochester (UAA EA) 15-1, 0.552
3) Whitworth (NWC WE) 15-2, 0.545
4) UW-Whitewater (WIAC CE) 13-3, 0.567
5) Swarthmore (CC MA) 14-3, 0.556
6) Loras (IIAC WE) 14-4, 0.570
7) UW-Eau Claire (WIAC CE) 12-4, 0.574
8) Christopher Newport (CAC MA) 15-2, 0.524
9) Amherst (NESCAC NE) 12-4, 0.567
10) Wesleyan (NESCAC NE) 15-4, 0.551
11) Catholic (LAND MA) 13-4, 0.558
12) Williams (NESCAC NE) 13-5, 0.571
13) Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW CE) 12-5, 0.573
14) Emory (UAA SO) 12-4, 0.552
15) Keene State (LEC NE) 12-5, 0.566
16) MIT (NEWMAC NE) 13-4, 0.542
17) WPI (NEWMAC NE) 12-5, 0.559
18) LeTourneau (ASC SO) 13-3, 0.517
19) Cabrini (CSAC AT) 12-3, 0.519
20) St. Thomas (MIAC WE) 12-4, 0.533
21) Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC SO) 13-4, 0.525

Leagues with the most teams in: NESCAC 5, WIAC 3, NEWMAC 3, many (including CCIW) with 2.
Pool C berths by region: Northeast 7, Central 3, West 3, Mid-Atlantic 3, South 3, East 1, Atlantic 1, Great Lakes 0

Moving In: Emory (C), Keene State (C), WPI (C), St. Thomas (C), Virginia Wesleyan (C), Randolph-Macon (ODAC), St. Johns (MIAC), Eastern (MACF), Franklin and Marshall (CC), Albertus Magnus (GNAC), Husson (NAC), Medaille (AMCC), Birmingham-Southern (SAA)

Moving Out: UW-Stout (C), UW-Oshkosh (C), Mount St. Joseph (HCAC), North Park (C), Bates (C), Carthage (C), Guilford (ODAC), DeSales (MACF), Castleton (NAC), La Roche (AMCC), Bethel (MIAC), Lasell (GNAC), Centre (SAA)

Wrong side of the bubble
John Carroll (OAC GL) 10-6, 0.595
UW-Stout (WIAC CE) 9-5, 0.588
Mass-Dartmouth (LEC NE) 11-6, 0.573
Chicago (UAA ce) 10-6, 0.581
UW-Stevens Point (WIAC CE) 9-7, 0.604
UW-Oshkosh (WIAC ce) 10-7, 0.594
Mount St. Joseph (HCAC GL) 13-3, 0.506
North Park (CCIW ce) 13-4, 0.524
Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC AT) 14-3, 0.501
Connecticut College (NESCAC ne) 11-6, 0.567
Bates (NESCAC ne) 12-6, 0.559
Carthage (CCIW ce) 10-6, 0.574
Rowan (NJAC AT) 11-7, 0.572
Hamilton (NESCAC ne) 12-4, 0.519
Ripon (MWC ce) 12-3, 0.500
Oswego State (SUNYAC EA) 13-4, 0.513
Skidmore (LL EA) 13-5, 0.527
Guilford (ODAC SO) 14-3, 0.488
Wooster (NCAC GL) 11-6, 0.554
Nebraska Wesleyan (IIAC we) 11-4, 0.519
DeSales (MACF AT) 11-6, 0.551
Mount Union (OAC GL) 11-6, 0.551
Central (IIAC WE) 9-7, 0.581
Trinity (Conn.) (NESCAC ne) 12-6, 0.540
Scranton (LAND MA) 12-5, 0.525
Capital (OAC GL) 10-7, 0.569
Pomona-Pitzer (SCIAC we) 8-2, 0.488
Wartburg (IIAC we) 10-6, 0.553
St. Olaf (MIAC WE) 7-8, 0.612
Castleton (NAC ne) 12-4, 0.504
Buffalo State (SUNYAC EA) 10-5, 0.534
Maryville (Tenn.) (USAC SO) 12-3, 0.484
Texas Lutheran (SCAC SO) 11-7, 0.554
New Jersey City (NJAC AT) 15-3, 0.469
SUNY Geneseo (SUNYAC ea) 11-6, 0.536
Moravian (LAND MA) 10-5, 0.528
Union (LL EA) 8-6, 0.562
Howard Payne (ASC so) 9-4, 0.516
TCNJ (NJAC at) 13-5, 0.504
SUNY Oneonta (SUNYAC ea) 10-7, 0.554
Concordia (Texas) (ASC so) 10-5, 0.524
Hood (MACC ma) 13-5, 0.503
Ohio Northern (OAC gl) 10-7, 0.551
Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC gl) 11-6, 0.527
Hamline (MIAC we) 10-6, 0.534
Western Connecticut (LEC ne) 10-5, 0.518
Misericordia (MACF at) 12-5, 0.503
Johns Hopkins (CC ma) 11-6, 0.525
Delaware Valley (MACF at) 10-7, 0.547
York (Pa.) (CAC ma) 11-6, 0.524
UW-Platteville (WIAC ce) 7-9, 0.602

[fantastic50]

Here are my thoughts at the moment.

Team (conference/pool) W-L, SOS
1) Marietta (OAC leader) 15-4, 0.601
2) John Carroll (Pool C) 12-6, 0.593
3) Hope (MIAA leader) 14-3, 0.529
4) Hanover (HCAC leader) 13-3, 0.525
5) Mount St. Joseph (Pool C) 15-3, 0.508
6) Wooster (Pool C) 13-6, 0.545
7) Denison (NCAC leader) 17-2, 0.448
8) Ohio Northern (Pool C) 12-7, 0.545
9) Anderson (Pool C) 13-5, 0.493

  I think that the committee would likely put Denison a little higher, despite the weak schedule.  Marietta and JCU both look like very strong Pool C candidates, Hope and Hanover look solid for now, and MSJ is a bubble team at the moment.  The NCAC still looks like a one-bid league, though Wooster might have a chance at a Pool C if they won out except for the conference final, to finish 21-7 with a decent SOS.

[sac]

Here are my thoughts at the moment.

Team (conference/pool) W-L, SOS
1) Marietta (OAC leader) 15-4, 0.601
2) John Carroll (Pool C) 12-6, 0.593
3) Hope (MIAA leader) 14-3, 0.529
4) Hanover (HCAC leader) 13-3, 0.525
5) Mount St. Joseph (Pool C) 15-3, 0.508
6) Wooster (Pool C) 13-6, 0.545
7) Denison (NCAC leader) 17-2, 0.448
8) Ohio Northern (Pool C) 12-7, 0.545
9) Anderson (Pool C) 13-5, 0.493

  I think that the committee would likely put Denison a little higher, despite the weak schedule.  Marietta and JCU both look like very strong Pool C candidates, Hope and Hanover look solid for now, and MSJ is a bubble team at the moment.  The NCAC still looks like a one-bid league, though Wooster might have a chance at a Pool C if they won out except for the conference final, to finish 21-7 with a decent SOS.

JCU over Hope better not happen, or why do we play games.  Hope 85  John Carroll 72   

[Fifth and Putnam]

Here are my thoughts at the moment.

Team (conference/pool) W-L, SOS
1) Marietta (OAC leader) 15-4, 0.601
2) John Carroll (Pool C) 12-6, 0.593
3) Hope (MIAA leader) 14-3, 0.529
4) Hanover (HCAC leader) 13-3, 0.525
5) Mount St. Joseph (Pool C) 15-3, 0.508
6) Wooster (Pool C) 13-6, 0.545
7) Denison (NCAC leader) 17-2, 0.448
8) Ohio Northern (Pool C) 12-7, 0.545
9) Anderson (Pool C) 13-5, 0.493

  I think that the committee would likely put Denison a little higher, despite the weak schedule.  Marietta and JCU both look like very strong Pool C candidates, Hope and Hanover look solid for now, and MSJ is a bubble team at the moment.  The NCAC still looks like a one-bid league, though Wooster might have a chance at a Pool C if they won out except for the conference final, to finish 21-7 with a decent SOS.

JCU over Hope better not happen, or why do we play games.  Hope 85  John Carroll 72   

I can't see JCU being ahead of Hope at the moment. It's probably closer than Hope fans want to think it is though. I also want to say the JCU team today looks completely different than the one they played towards the beginning of the year. I still have no answers for what was going on there in November with the Blue Streaks.

With 3 weeks left before conference tournaments (time sure does fly) and only a week out from our first regional rankings, I'll take another shot at this:

1. Marietta
2. Hope (I've watched both Marietta and Hope extensively this year and it's razor thin for me on who's a better squad, both do some things very well and struggle at times in other areas. It would be an amazing second weekend matchup in the tournament should we get there.)

It gets really tough here because teams are bunched close together.
3. John Carroll
4. MSJ (They get the nod for now over Hanover with the head-to-head win)
5. Hanover
6. Denison
7. Wooster
8. Mount Union
9. St. Vincent

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

JCU would easily be ahead of Hope if the rankings came out this week.  Huge SOS difference.

[fantastic50]

JCU would easily be ahead of Hope if the rankings came out this week.  Huge SOS difference.

This is my thinking.  All other things (head-to-head, results versus regionally-ranked opponents, etc.) being, that .064 SOS difference between JCU and Hope has been considered equivalent to a 4-game difference in records (4 more wins & 4 fewer losses) in recent years.  That being said, I wouldn't be completely shocked if the regional committee has Hope ahead.