Great Lakes Region

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Here's what I've got at the moment (more info at http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html).

1) Wittenberg (18-0, 12-0 NCAC, 1.000 WP, 0.517 SOS)
2) Wooster (15-4, 9-3 NCAC, 0.789 WP, 0.578 SOS)
3) Marietta (15-4, 9-3 OAC, 0.789 WP, 0.575 SOS)
4) John Carroll (15-4, 9-3 OAC, 0.789 WP, 0.543 SOS)
5) Baldwin Wallace (14-5, 8-4 OAC, 0.737 WP, 0.552 SOS)
6) Ohio Wesleyan (14-5, 9-3 NCAC, 0.737 WP, 0.542 SOS)
7) Ohio Northern (13-6, 8-4 OAC, 0.684 WP, 0.548 SOS)
8) Transylvania (13-6, 8-4 HCAC, 0.684 WP, 0.532 SOS)
9) Mount St. Joseph (13-6, 10-2 HCAC, 0.684 WP, 0.512 SOS)
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10) Hanover (13-4, 10-2 HCAC, 0.765 WP, 0.489 SOS)
11) Hiram (12-7, 8-4 NCAC, 0.632 WP, 0.568 SOS)
12) St. Vincent (12-6, 10-2 PAC, 0.667 WP, 0.499 SOS)

I would flop 4 and 3 and not because I am a JCU homer (but I am) . . . I think the 2-0 record head-to-head gives Carroll the edge despite the weaker SOS.  Of course, you could also argue to flop 4 and 5 for the same reason.  The OAC, in some ways, has a lot of game to play, but the three at the top only have one game between each other left -- BW v JCU on 2/7.

[fantastic50]

I would flop 4 and 5 and not because I am a JCU homer (but I am) . . . I think the 2-0 record head-to-head gives Carroll the edge despite the weaker SOS.

No argument there.  My system does not consider head-to-head results, but that certainly will be a factor in the regional committee's discussions.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Here's what I've got at the moment (more info at http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html).

1) Wittenberg (18-0, 12-0 NCAC, 1.000 WP, 0.517 SOS)
2) Wooster (15-4, 9-3 NCAC, 0.789 WP, 0.578 SOS)
3) Marietta (15-4, 9-3 OAC, 0.789 WP, 0.575 SOS)
4) John Carroll (15-4, 9-3 OAC, 0.789 WP, 0.543 SOS)
5) Baldwin Wallace (14-5, 8-4 OAC, 0.737 WP, 0.552 SOS)
6) Ohio Wesleyan (14-5, 9-3 NCAC, 0.737 WP, 0.542 SOS)
7) Ohio Northern (13-6, 8-4 OAC, 0.684 WP, 0.548 SOS)
8) Transylvania (13-6, 8-4 HCAC, 0.684 WP, 0.532 SOS)
9) Mount St. Joseph (13-6, 10-2 HCAC, 0.684 WP, 0.512 SOS)
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10) Hanover (13-4, 10-2 HCAC, 0.765 WP, 0.489 SOS)
11) Hiram (12-7, 8-4 NCAC, 0.632 WP, 0.568 SOS)
12) St. Vincent (12-6, 10-2 PAC, 0.667 WP, 0.499 SOS)

I would flop 4 and 5 and not because I am a JCU homer (but I am) . . . I think the 2-0 record head-to-head gives Carroll the edge despite the weaker SOS.

I assume you mean 3 and 4, right?

[Onward on, John Carroll]

I corrected myself in my post above but, yes, I meant 3 and 4 with the disclaimer that BW could make the same argument about 4 and 5.   

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Personally, I've got it Marietta, BW, JCU right now, although I think ONU is better than they've shown just yet.  This week should be interesting.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Personally, I've got it Marietta, BW, JCU right now, although I think ONU is better than they've shown just yet.  This week should be interesting.

You really want to believe in Marietta, don't you?  I do not get it as they are not the same team they have been in years past during their impressive run from after-thought to regional power over the past decade.  That said, they are 1-3 against those two teams with two of those losses at home. If you want to weight SOS that much, that is understandable but I simply cannot give them the nod when I have watched them 7 times this season. 

I actually hope that the cannibalization in the league stops and we are able to sneak three teams in again as we did a few years ago.   I think if everyone wins out and JCU beats BW (and one of those three wins the tournament - no promises there), we could be in position to do just that with a little help.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Personally, I've got it Marietta, BW, JCU right now, although I think ONU is better than they've shown just yet.  This week should be interesting.

You really want to believe in Marietta, don't you?  I do not get it as they are not the same team they have been in years past during their impressive run from after-thought to regional power over the past decade.  That said, they are 1-3 against those two teams with two of those losses at home. If you want to weight SOS that much, that is understandable but I simply cannot give them the nod when I have watched them 7 times this season. 

I actually hope that the cannibalization in the league stops and we are able to sneak three teams in again as we did a few years ago.   I think if everyone wins out and JCU beats BW (and one of those three wins the tournament - no promises there), we could be in position to do just that with a little help.

Marietta is a good team this year, but something just hasn't quite clicked this year and I can't put my finger on it. They've showed flashes of what their ceiling is, but even in a lot of their wins I walked away feeling like they could of and should of played better. I agree that JCU at this point should be ahead of Marietta on any regional ranking, they got the season sweep over the Pioneers. On the flip side, Marietta won in Berea and if not for a desperation heave that banked in at Ban Johnson..Marietta would have the sweep of the Jackets.

I'd probably go:
1. Witt

2. Wooster
3. JCU                        These 3 are EXTREMELY close in resumes
4. Marietta

5. BW
6. OWU
7. ONU

8. Transy
9. Hanover (I think the head to head victory here slots Hanover over MSJ for now)

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Personally, I've got it Marietta, BW, JCU right now, although I think ONU is better than they've shown just yet.  This week should be interesting.

Clearly you are using the official - how did they do vs. Hope this year index    Sorry I had to interject that since it may be the closest Hope gets to being involved in Regional Ranking discussions this year. 

I think you could arrange those three in any order and make a decent argument...

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Personally, I've got it Marietta, BW, JCU right now, although I think ONU is better than they've shown just yet.  This week should be interesting.

Clearly you are using the official - how did they do vs. Hope this year index    Sorry I had to interject that since it may be the closest Hope gets to being involved in Regional Ranking discussions this year. 

I think you could arrange those three in any order and make a decent argument...

Well, I started the year with eye test - then the results made that difficult to justify and now I'm sort of back to the eye test with results that make me a little more secure.  I'm not super confident in that position.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Personally, I've got it Marietta, BW, JCU right now, although I think ONU is better than they've shown just yet.  This week should be interesting.

You really want to believe in Marietta, don't you?  I do not get it as they are not the same team they have been in years past during their impressive run from after-thought to regional power over the past decade.  That said, they are 1-3 against those two teams with two of those losses at home. If you want to weight SOS that much, that is understandable but I simply cannot give them the nod when I have watched them 7 times this season. 

I actually hope that the cannibalization in the league stops and we are able to sneak three teams in again as we did a few years ago.   I think if everyone wins out and JCU beats BW (and one of those three wins the tournament - no promises there), we could be in position to do just that with a little help.

Marietta is a good team this year, but something just hasn't quite clicked this year and I can't put my finger on it. They've showed flashes of what their ceiling is, but even in a lot of their wins I walked away feeling like they could of and should of played better. I agree that JCU at this point should be ahead of Marietta on any regional ranking, they got the season sweep over the Pioneers. On the flip side, Marietta won in Berea and if not for a desperation heave that banked in at Ban Johnson..Marietta would have the sweep of the Jackets.

I'd probably go:
1. Witt

2. Wooster
3. JCU                        These 3 are EXTREMELY close in resumes
4. Marietta

5. BW
6. OWU
7. ONU

8. Transy
9. Hanover (I think the head to head victory here slots Hanover over MSJ for now)

Great point about the near season-sweep of BW.   Like I hinted at earlier, it would certainly be best for everyone's resume if the upsets stopped and the only losses anyone suffers from among the top 4 - BW, JCU, ONU and Etta - are to each other.   

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I probably need to get some more face time in with these teams.  I saw both Marietta losses at home - to JCU and BW and just watching them, it felt to me like Marietta was still the better team, even if they didn't execute well enough to win those games.  At some point in the season, though, failure to execute has to factor in.  The trouble comes with these other losses, as you said - if it were just the top four, that would be one thing, but the results vs the rest of the conference jumble everything up.

[sac]

Great Lakes--Conference leaders/Pool C picture  (6 losses and under is "ok", 7 and we're getting sketchy as a Pool C, I used 7 as a cutoff this week)


Record--team--W%/SOS--Games remaining against other leaders or PoolC's in parenthesis

I don't think we're to a point where we can "lock" anyone in, (next week probably),  Red=  SOS to low to warrant a Pool C slot or overall record below the .700 line  ie currently out of position for a C

AMCC
18-3  PSU-Behrend   .857/.442
16-5  LaRoche           .762/.463
14-7  PSU-Altoona     .667/.455

HCAC
14-5  Hanover       .737/.495
15-6  Transylvania     .714/.513
14-7  Mt. St. Joseph   .667/.506
13-7  Rose-Hulman    .650/.494

MIAA
14-5  Adrian  .737/.442
11-7   Hope  .611/.552
12-6  Olivet  .667/.484


NCAC
20-0  Wittenberg   1.000/.509
17-4  Wooster          .810/566
15-6  Ohio Wesleyan  .714/.536



OAC
17-4  John Carroll   .810/.522
16-5  Marietta        .762/.567
15-6  Ohio Northern  .714/549
15-6  Baldwin Wallace  .714/.541



PAC
16-4  Thomas More         .800/.460
14-5  Westminster         .737/.451
13-7  St. Vincent             .650/.502

I removed Medaille and Hiram, both picked up their 8th and 9th losses.

Big winner this week was probably Ohio Northern who at least played themselves back into the Pool C picture.

Wednesday is first ranking day.....

-----Question for #2 and #3, JCU or Wooster.  Wooster appears to have the upper hand, but without looking at Head-to-heads yet I'm not sure.

-----pick your order between  BW, OWU and ONU for 5,6,7

-----8, 9 I think it might get odd   Behrend probably ought to be ranked but that SOS, woof.  So we're back to two HCAC teams and the odd part might be Hanover and Transylvania being slotted in ahead of conference leader Rose-Hulman


You're realistic Pool C candidates are only Wittenberg, Marietta, John Carroll and Wooster at the moment.

[Fifth and Putnam]

I think Wooster is a clear #2 over JCU.

I'll go ONU, BW, and OWU for 5,6, and 7.

Hanover and MSJ were 8 and 9 before the week started. I am guessing Transylvania slides into one of those last slots...I'd go Transy 8 and Hanover 9.

Rose-Hulman probably are kicking themselves. A 1-6 start to the year pretty much wrecked their resume before we even got to the holidays. Shame because they are 13-1 since.

With a .442 SOS, you'd be better be 21-0 or 20-1 to even think about getting ranked. That's a seriously low SOS. I don't think they make the slate.

How I think they come out:
1. Witt
2. Woo
3. JCU
4. Etta
5. ONU
6. BW
7. OWU
8. Transy
9. Hanover

[fantastic50]

I also think that Wooster is clearly #2.  Marietta & JCU could go either way at #3 and #4, and the next three are all comparable, but I would put all four OAC teams ahead of OWU.

1) Wittenberg (20-0, 14-0 NCAC, 1.000 WP, 0.508 SOS)

2) Wooster (17-4, 11-3 NCAC, 0.810 WP, 0.566 SOS)

3) Marietta (16-5, 10-4 OAC, 0.762 WP, 0.567 SOS)
4) John Carroll (17-4, 11-3 OAC, 0.810 WP, 0.523 SOS)

5) Ohio Northern (15-6, 10-4 OAC, 0.714 WP, 0.551 SOS)
6) Baldwin Wallace (15-6, 9-5 OAC, 0.714 WP, 0.541 SOS)
7) Ohio Wesleyan (15-6, 10-4 NCAC, 0.714 WP, 0.536 SOS)

8) Transylvania (15-6, 10-4 HCAC, 0.714 WP, 0.512 SOS)
9) Hanover (14-5, 11-3 HCAC, 0.737 WP, 0.495 SOS)

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10) Mount St. Joseph (14-7, 11-3 HCAC, 0.667 WP, 0.508 SOS)
11) Hope (11-7, 7-3 MIAA, 0.611 WP, 0.552 SOS)
12) Thomas More (16-4, 13-1 PAC, 0.800 WP, 0.466 SOS)

More details... http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_reg.html

[sac]

JCU should most definitely be ahead of Marietta with a 2-0 head-to-head.