Great Lakes Region

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Impossible to consider them against the current week's rankings considering they are ranking teams prior to those second week rankings coming out... so they only refer to the previous week's rankings. As Ryan said, the only time that changes is the very, very last ranking done only by the national committee.

[KnightSlappy]

It's Week 1 - the only time they consider the rankings they are doing in the VRRO is in the final rankings on selection sunday.

Which is insane since the second-to-last rankings also "count" but they themselves don't include all of the primary criteria.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It's Week 1 - the only time they consider the rankings they are doing in the VRRO is in the final rankings on selection sunday.

Which is insane since the second-to-last rankings also "count" but they themselves don't include all of the primary criteria.

That isn't true... they all include primary criteria except the very first rankings.

That is why they got rid of the once-ranked, always-ranked because Week 1 didn't have all the criteria.

And Week 2 will count to set-up the final rankings, but the final rankings will only include Week 3 and Week 4 (the RAC's rankings, before they are done over one last time for the national committee).

[KnightSlappy]

It's Week 1 - the only time they consider the rankings they are doing in the VRRO is in the final rankings on selection sunday.

Which is insane since the second-to-last rankings also "count" but they themselves don't include all of the primary criteria.

That isn't true... they all include primary criteria except the very first rankings.

That is why they got rid of the once-ranked, always-ranked because Week 1 didn't have all the criteria.

And Week 2 will count to set-up the final rankings, but the final rankings will only include Week 3 and Week 4 (the RAC's rankings, before they are done over one last time for the national committee).

Sorry, meant to say it isn't based on actually correct data. Week 3's RROs are based on Week 2's actuals (for the sake of ease, not rigor). Week 4's RROs are iterated to be based on themselves. So, we'll be getting echos of the Week 2, 3, and 4 rankings in those final rankings.

This will tend to help the schools from the more prominent conferences that have the ability to shuffle 4-5 teams through the rankings these last four weeks. And those conferences tend to get higher number of RRO games in the first place. (CCIW, WIAC, NESCAC, etc.)

[sac]

A quick glance at some of the RRO data from somewhere else on this site and John Carroll looks pretty rock solid to remain ahead of Marietta  4-1 v RRO to Marietta 3-4.  Plus the 2-0 head-to-head    It might take a couple JCU losses to change that.


I think the big question is what happens to Wooster if they lose to Witt next week  and/or OWU this weekend.  Its a question of are they first GL team at the the table or the last one. 



Witt, Wooster, JCU and Marietta are really the only true C candidates from this region.  ONU might be able to play their way into contention but I think they probably have to beat both Marietta and JCU and probably make the OAC Championship game.

OWU and BW were on the ropes last night and probably took knock out blows with their losses.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

To be clear... Week 4's start with Week 2 and Week 3 data.. .that's where the RACs rank for the national committee. The national committee makes adjustments and finalizes those rankings. The vRRO is run one more time (which eliminates Week 2's vRRO numbers) and the national committee makes any final adjustments needed. So, Week 4 does include Week 2 to start and always includes Week 3.

[KnightSlappy]

To be clear... Week 4's start with Week 2 and Week 3 data.. .that's where the RACs rank for the national committee. The national committee makes adjustments and finalizes those rankings. The vRRO is run one more time (which eliminates Week 2's vRRO numbers) and the national committee makes any final adjustments needed. So, Week 4 does include Week 2 to start and always includes Week 3.

And Week 3 always includes Week 2 which means Week 4 never fully separates from Week 2 data, even after running the vRRO again (the vRROs themselves won't show up but the fringe spots in the rankings include the Week 2 vRROs in the decision making process).

[fantastic50]

A quick glance at some of the RRO data from somewhere else on this site and John Carroll looks pretty rock solid to remain ahead of Marietta  4-1 v RRO to Marietta 3-4.  Plus the 2-0 head-to-head    It might take a couple JCU losses to change that.

I think the big question is what happens to Wooster if they lose to Witt next week  and/or OWU this weekend.  Its a question of are they first GL team at the the table or the last one. 

Witt, Wooster, JCU and Marietta are really the only true C candidates from this region.  ONU might be able to play their way into contention but I think they probably have to beat both Marietta and JCU and probably make the OAC Championship game.

OWU and BW were on the ropes last night and probably took knock out blows with their losses.

At the end of the day, I think the top four all get comfortably, even if we were to see a surprise conference tournament winner. 

ONU or B-W could get to the bubble by finishing the regular season strong and then reaching the OAC final.  OWU probably needs to win two more big games out of three (at Wooster, vs Witt, and a potential tourney semi against Wooster) to have a decent Pool C chance.

We can argue over who ought to be #8 and #9 right now, but the Heartland and MIAA will be one-bid leagues this year, so those spots matter only for other teams' vRRO numbers.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

A quick glance at some of the RRO data from somewhere else on this site and John Carroll looks pretty rock solid to remain ahead of Marietta  4-1 v RRO to Marietta 3-4.  Plus the 2-0 head-to-head    It might take a couple JCU losses to change that.


I think the big question is what happens to Wooster if they lose to Witt next week  and/or OWU this weekend.  Its a question of are they first GL team at the the table or the last one. 



Witt, Wooster, JCU and Marietta are really the only true C candidates from this region.  ONU might be able to play their way into contention but I think they probably have to beat both Marietta and JCU and probably make the OAC Championship game.

OWU and BW were on the ropes last night and probably took knock out blows with their losses.

I think if ONU rattles off 5 in a row and loses in the OAC title game to either JCU or Etta (which would reduce the chances that it is a bid thief), they will have a decent Pool C resume.  That argument is strengthened by the fact that those 5 wins would contain 2, maybe 3 wins against RRO.

BW and OWU must win their conference tourney games, at this point, to see NCAA action.

As for JCU, I thought we were in good shape last year . . .then we lost to Capital to end the regular season and were upset by Musky three days later.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

A quick glance at some of the RRO data from somewhere else on this site and John Carroll looks pretty rock solid to remain ahead of Marietta  4-1 v RRO to Marietta 3-4.  Plus the 2-0 head-to-head    It might take a couple JCU losses to change that.

I think the big question is what happens to Wooster if they lose to Witt next week  and/or OWU this weekend.  Its a question of are they first GL team at the the table or the last one. 

Witt, Wooster, JCU and Marietta are really the only true C candidates from this region.  ONU might be able to play their way into contention but I think they probably have to beat both Marietta and JCU and probably make the OAC Championship game.

OWU and BW were on the ropes last night and probably took knock out blows with their losses.

At the end of the day, I think the top four all get comfortably, even if we were to see a surprise conference tournament winner. 

ONU or B-W could get to the bubble by finishing the regular season strong and then reaching the OAC final.  OWU probably needs to win two more big games out of three (at Wooster, vs Witt, and a potential tourney semi against Wooster) to have a decent Pool C chance.

We can argue over who ought to be #8 and #9 right now, but the Heartland and MIAA will be one-bid leagues this year, so those spots matter only for other teams' vRRO numbers.

I agree with everything you are saying, except as to BW.  I do no think they can build a good enough Pool C resume even with 5 straight wins and a loss in the OAC final.

[fantastic50]

I agree with everything you are saying, except as to BW.  I do no think they can build a good enough Pool C resume even with 5 straight wins and a loss in the OAC final.

In that case, BW would be 20-8 (WP .714), and my sims on that scenario show an average SOS of .560, and 3-5 vRRO (plus a .577 ncSOS), which looks like a solid resume; I have them at about 90% to get in under that scenario.  If Marietta were to finish 2-1 and then fall in the OAC semis, the Pioneers would be 20-7 and potentially have similar numbers (.741 / .569 / 3-5) in the other categories.  That resume looks good enough unless the "bid thieves" have a huge year, bursting bubbles all over the place.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

I agree with everything you are saying, except as to BW.  I do no think they can build a good enough Pool C resume even with 5 straight wins and a loss in the OAC final.

In that case, BW would be 20-8 (WP .714), and my sims on that scenario show an average SOS of .560, and 3-5 vRRO (plus a .577 ncSOS), which looks like a solid resume; I have them at about 90% to get in under that scenario.  If Marietta were to finish 2-1 and then fall in the OAC semis, the Pioneers would be 20-7 and potentially have similar numbers (.741 / .569 / 3-5) in the other categories.  That resume looks good enough unless the "bid thieves" have a huge year, bursting bubbles all over the place.

Well . . . I cannot argue with that math and analysis, professor.  Well done, as usual. 

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Well, fan50, BW did what they needed to do with the win. I am assuming you're  still projecting BW to have a strong Pool C resume if they win 4 more and lose in the OAC title game. How do they look if they win 3 in a row and lose in the semis?

How about Northern? Can they keep dreams of a Pool C alive with a loss in the semis or will it take 4 in a row (including saturday's game against Etta)?

[sac]

Semi-final losses to "bubbly teams" is usually not good enough.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Semi-final losses to "bubbly teams" is usually not good enough.

True.  The only thing I was thinking, thought, was that, for ONU, those three straight wins would include a victory over Etta on Saturday.  Of course, I was not too confident in either BW or ONU's chance to earn a Pool C until Fantastic50 showed the numbers.