Great Lakes Region

[sac]

I think both BW and ONU are probably  in win the AQ or nothing mode.  Their C chances look pretty slim, albeit with lots that can happen.  Maybe if one of them can get to the final they'd improve their position enough.

Next loss is #8 for either with ok but not outstanding SOS.

[fantastic50]

Well, fan50, BW did what they needed to do with the win. I am assuming you're  still projecting BW to have a strong Pool C resume if they win 4 more and lose in the OAC title game. How do they look if they win 3 in a row and lose in the semis?

How about Northern? Can they keep dreams of a Pool C alive with a loss in the semis or will it take 4 in a row (including saturday's game against Etta)?

If BW wins out except for the final, I am showing .714/.562/4-5 (93% for a Pool C berth).  I can't as readily run the numbers on a semifinal loss, but my guess is that they would be a bubble team (provided they won the rest up to that point).

For ONU, the numbers would be 714/.544/4-5 (54% for Pool C); the issue for them is that they could have as few as 2 wins vRRO, depending on who else is regionally ranked at the end.  It seems to me that a lot of help would be required for the Polar Bears to get in without reaching the OAC final.

[fantastic50]

Current season-to-date numbers on this region show it tightening up more than I expected after Witt's loss at Hiram. 

(Through Sunday's games)
Witt .955/.513/3-0
Woo .826/.556/5-1
JCU .826/.536/5-1
Etta .783/.562/3-4

My formula suggests the order should be Woo, Witt, Marietta, JCU, with very little separation among them all, but that doesn't consider the head-to-head results. 

After the head-to-head results are included, I think that the top four will be unchanged from last week: Witt #1, Woo #2, Etta #3, JCU #4.  However, they are all close enough that any of the four could be the final regional #1, two weeks from now.

[sac]

If Witt gets two wins over OWU and Wooster this week they'd be #1 next week by a pretty wide margin.

[fantastic50]

If Witt gets two wins over OWU and Wooster this week they'd be #1 next week by a pretty wide margin.

Agreed.  If Witt takes care of business this week, I don't think anyone can catch them, regardless of how the NCAC & OAC tournaments turn out.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

If Witt gets two wins over OWU and Wooster this week they'd be #1 next week by a pretty wide margin.

Agreed.  If Witt takes care of business this week, I don't think anyone can catch them, regardless of how the NCAC & OAC tournaments turn out.

This is definitely Witt's region to lose.  The only want I see Wooster or JCU catching them is by winning out in combination with dropping at least one regular season game and an NCAC tournament game. Even if they drop both this week and then win the NCAC (presumably with a victory over Wooster),  I would have to imagine their numbers would still be better.  I see a path for Etta to overtake Wooster and JCU if the cards fall right for them but I do not see them catching Witt.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Week 2 Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2018/02/men-regional-rankings-second

[sac]

I would say 7, 8, and 9 are pretty soft rankings with little chance of ever making it to the table.  "Filler" if you will.

Hope popping into the ranking is probably a neutral for JCU, positives for Marietta, BW and the WIAC's Platteville, Stevens Point.




Possibility maybe that OWU drops out after this week, maybe even Hiram?  That might make Wooster less appealing as the #2

[ScotsFan]

If Witt gets two wins over OWU and Wooster this week they'd be #1 next week by a pretty wide margin.

Could Wooster make a claim with two wins this week? 

I'm interested to see how Witt responds to their first loss of the season.  OWU at the Branch won't be an easy win and if they lose tonight, they'd be looking at a 2 game losing streak going into their showdown with Wooster in the season finale.

[fantastic50]

I would say 7, 8, and 9 are pretty soft rankings with little chance of ever making it to the table.  "Filler" if you will.

Hope popping into the ranking is probably a neutral for JCU, positives for Marietta, BW and the WIAC's Platteville, Stevens Point.

Possibility maybe that OWU drops out after this week, maybe even Hiram?  That might make Wooster less appealing as the #2

My guess is that either OWU or Hiram stays in after this week, but not both.  With non-conference victories over Brockport and Emory & Henry (and currently unranked Hanover) plus sweeps of both Hiram & OWU), Wooster has plenty of wins vs RRO, so I think they stay #2 next week with a loss.  However, the Scots may need to beat Witt once, either Saturday or in the NCAC tourney final, to stay ahead of the OAC champ (if it's JCU or Marietta) in the final regional rankings.

[kiltedbryan]

If Witt gets two wins over OWU and Wooster this week they'd be #1 next week by a pretty wide margin.

Agreed.  If Witt takes care of business this week, I don't think anyone can catch them, regardless of how the NCAC & OAC tournaments turn out.

Wittenberg 80
Ohio Wesleyan 85

So, that probably helps solidify OWU's rankings spot and weakens Witt's hold on the top slot...elsewhere:

Denison 78
Hiram 60

Seems like a nail-in-the-coffin loss for Hiram's ability to stay in the rankings.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Are we to the point where Witt, Woo, JCU, and Marietta all are locked in regardless of what happens the rest of the way and everyone else is fighting for Pool A spots?

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Are we to the point where Witt, Woo, JCU, and Marietta all are locked in regardless of what happens the rest of the way and everyone else is fighting for Pool A spots?

What is ONU rattles off three in a row and loses in the OAC title game?  That would be a decent resume, no?  Those three wins would include two RRO (Etta Saturday and either JCU or Etta in the semifinals) and (with a loss in the OAC title game) leave them with a record of 20-8 overall and vRRO of maybe 4-5.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Are we to the point where Witt, Woo, JCU, and Marietta all are locked in regardless of what happens the rest of the way and everyone else is fighting for Pool A spots?

What is ONU rattles off three in a row and loses in the OAC title game?  That would be a decent resume, no?  Those three wins would include two RRO (Etta Saturday and either JCU or Etta in the semifinals) and (with a loss in the OAC title game) leave them with a record of 20-8 overall and vRRO of maybe 4-5.

I still think they'd be a long shot. Fantastic50 has ONU at 5% to get in. They'd need a lot of chalk to help out.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Are we to the point where Witt, Woo, JCU, and Marietta all are locked in regardless of what happens the rest of the way and everyone else is fighting for Pool A spots?

What is ONU rattles off three in a row and loses in the OAC title game?  That would be a decent resume, no?  Those three wins would include two RRO (Etta Saturday and either JCU or Etta in the semifinals) and (with a loss in the OAC title game) leave them with a record of 20-8 overall and vRRO of maybe 4-5.

I still think they'd be a long shot. Fantastic50 has ONU at 5% to get in. They'd need a lot of chalk to help out.

I agree with that 5% if the games go according to projections which would have them going, I assume, 1-2 in their next 3.  My assumption, a longshot but not improbable by any means, would have them going 3-1 in their next 4 with a win over Etta and JCU (or two over Etta).

Regardless, that is an unlikely scenario but I have seen stranger in the OAC tourney.