Great Lakes Region

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Seems like the GL is pretty well set. Woo, Witt, Etta and JCU look pretty solid. It could dicey for whomever is ranked 4 th next week if all 4 of those teams fail to earn the Pool A this weekend.  If there are upsets in both the OAC and the NCAC, and all four of the aforementioned schools need a Pool C, they all will have good resumes but you never know if they might get left at the table.

I have all four in the top 14 resumes nationally right now, before removing any teams for Pool A berths.  With 21 Pool C berths to give out, I don't think there can be enough chaos in conference tournaments to knock out any of those four.  The big question now is who (besides Witt) will host.

Assuming the OAC title features the Streaks and Pios, I have to imagine the winner would be in a could position to host

I think Wooster has the inside track to being the 2nd host. If Wooster wins the NCAC Tournament they would in my mind be the 2nd host.

Agreed

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Seems like the GL is pretty well set. Woo, Witt, Etta and JCU look pretty solid. It could dicey for whomever is ranked 4 th next week if all 4 of those teams fail to earn the Pool A this weekend.  If there are upsets in both the OAC and the NCAC, and all four of the aforementioned schools need a Pool C, they all will have good resumes but you never know if they might get left at the table.

I have all four in the top 14 resumes nationally right now, before removing any teams for Pool A berths.  With 21 Pool C berths to give out, I don't think there can be enough chaos in conference tournaments to knock out any of those four.  The big question now is who (besides Witt) will host.

Assuming the OAC title features the Streaks and Pios, I have to imagine the winner would be in a could position to host

I think Wooster has the inside track to being the 2nd host. If Wooster wins the NCAC Tournament they would in my mind be the 2nd host.

And if Witt wins they wouldn't host? Interested in why you think Wooster has the "inside track"

I do not want to speak for another poster, but I think he was implying that Witt is definitely going to host regardless of the outcome of the NCAC and Wooster has the inside track if two teams from GL region host to be that second team.  Along those same lines, and as I said above, I agree - if Wooster wins the NCAC championship, they will be hosting in addition to Witt.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Seems like the GL is pretty well set. Woo, Witt, Etta and JCU look pretty solid. It could dicey for whomever is ranked 4 th next week if all 4 of those teams fail to earn the Pool A this weekend.  If there are upsets in both the OAC and the NCAC, and all four of the aforementioned schools need a Pool C, they all will have good resumes but you never know if they might get left at the table.

I have all four in the top 14 resumes nationally right now, before removing any teams for Pool A berths.  With 21 Pool C berths to give out, I don't think there can be enough chaos in conference tournaments to knock out any of those four.  The big question now is who (besides Witt) will host.

Assuming the OAC title features the Streaks and Pios, I have to imagine the winner would be in a could position to host

I think Wooster has the inside track to being the 2nd host. If Wooster wins the NCAC Tournament they would in my mind be the 2nd host.

And if Witt wins they wouldn't host? Interested in why you think Wooster has the "inside track"

I do not want to speak for another poster, but I think he was implying that Witt is definitely going to host regardless of the outcome of the NCAC and Wooster has the inside track if two teams from GL region host to be that second team.  Along those same lines, and as I said above, I agree - if Wooster wins the NCAC championship, they will be hosting in addition to Witt.

Correct. Witt is in line to host regardless of what happens this week.

An interesting scenario in my mind is if Witt beats Woo in the final, and Marietta beats JCU in the OAC final...could the Pioneers jump both JCU and Wooster to grab the 2nd spot. Or would a JCU title win be enough to overtake Wooster losing the NCAC final.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Don't forget that location comes into play around hosting.  Just because you are ranked higher regionally or even seed wise in the tourney, does not mean you automatically are hosting.  It all depends who else is in and where they can get to under 500 miles. (for example - Hope hosting the regional last year).  Just wondering if Marietta's (or anyone else's) location might factor into the hosting decision. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Don't forget that location comes into play around hosting.  Just because you are ranked higher regionally or even seed wise in the tourney, does not mean you automatically are hosting.  It all depends who else is in and where they can get to under 500 miles. (for example - Hope hosting the regional last year).  Just wondering if Marietta's (or anyone else's) location might factor into the hosting decision.

It might, but usually that is a second weekend conversation, not a first weekend one. The first weekend the committee tries and gets its Top 16 squads to host. For the most part, you can consider them as the top two ranked teams in each region, BUT that is not totally true as the top two are not equal across the board. They will then craft a bracket doing their best to allow those they want to to host to host. There are exceptions, but I don't think those exceptions will come into play in the Great Lakes region. You might not be able to get the best options, but there are plenty of teams 500 miles from most Great Lakes schools.

The second weekend is a completely different conversation because the committee obviously has less control of the mileage based on results and whatnot.

[kiltedbryan]

Ohio Northern knocks off Marietta 94-88, so Marietta is officially a Pool C candidate. The Pios should still hear their name called on Monday...but seems likely it will be for games at someone else's gym.

John Carroll dispensed with Baldwin-Wallace 93-72 and will host ONU on Saturday for the OAC Pool A bid. B-W, a "longshot" in fantastic50's tabulations prior to this loss, is now surely done.

Pressure now on Wooster to make the NCAC final to retain a good position for host #2, I think.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Marietta will probably make the tournament, but they certainly won't be hosting as surmised.

Baldwin-Wallace has probably ended their season. I think their chances are pretty remote on getting in, especially if Ohio Wesleyan wins over Wooster (would at least move OWU ahead of BW and possibly block BW from getting to the table).

ONU secure a bid in the tournament with tonight's win. Had they lost, I think the OAC would have been a two-bid league with an outside chance of ONU making it (better than BW's chances, but only slightly).

[sac]

Marietta will probably make the tournament, but they certainly won't be hosting as surmised.

Baldwin-Wallace has probably ended their season. I think their chances are pretty remote on getting in, especially if Ohio Wesleyan wins over Wooster (would at least move OWU ahead of BW and possibly block BW from getting to the table).

ONU secure a bid in the tournament with tonight's win. Had they lost, I think the OAC would have been a two-bid league with an outside chance of ONU making it (better than BW's chances, but only slightly).

Fantastic50 actually believes Ohio Northern could only get in through the AQ.  They are simply to far back in the pecking order even with their win tonight.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Marietta will probably make the tournament, but they certainly won't be hosting as surmised.

Baldwin-Wallace has probably ended their season. I think their chances are pretty remote on getting in, especially if Ohio Wesleyan wins over Wooster (would at least move OWU ahead of BW and possibly block BW from getting to the table).

ONU secure a bid in the tournament with tonight's win. Had they lost, I think the OAC would have been a two-bid league with an outside chance of ONU making it (better than BW's chances, but only slightly).

You think ONU is in, Dave?

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Marietta will probably make the tournament, but they certainly won't be hosting as surmised.

Baldwin-Wallace has probably ended their season. I think their chances are pretty remote on getting in, especially if Ohio Wesleyan wins over Wooster (would at least move OWU ahead of BW and possibly block BW from getting to the table).

ONU secure a bid in the tournament with tonight's win. Had they lost, I think the OAC would have been a two-bid league with an outside chance of ONU making it (better than BW's chances, but only slightly).

So a JCU loss appears to be good for the league as I would think JCU and Etta are in regardless and ONU would get the auto bid with a win Saturday. My question, can JCU host with a win on Saturday?  I still think they need Wooster to lose, preferably in the semis, to host over Wooster. Witt has home games regardless. I think JCU has an outside chance of jumping Wooster if Wooster makes the finals and loses.

Dave - do you see a scenario in which three GL teams host?

[kiltedbryan]

ONU secure a bid in the tournament with tonight's win. Had they lost, I think the OAC would have been a two-bid league with an outside chance of ONU making it (better than BW's chances, but only slightly).

Agree with others. This seems too optimistic re: ONU. With the OAC final loss ONU would be going into selections at 19-9 (.678), 4-6 vRRO, with a good, but not exceptional, SOS. That's not that great of a resume...plus Marietta, Witt and Wooster could all still be at the GL table as C bids before ONU would even be considered.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I have been going back and forth, actually. The fact ONU is right behind Marietta makes me think they are close in the eyes of the committee(s). ONU now has a win over Marietta (1-2 on the season) and will improve their vRRO most likely to 4-5 (considering another loss in this conversation). I think the WL and SOS conversation between the two will wash each other out and not be a factor, leaving this with the other criteria.

I could see a reason that ONU moves ahead of Marietta; I could see a reason that they stay stuck behind Marietta.

If they move ahead of Marietta, ONU WILL get to the table to be considered. That is half the battle. That also could leave Marietta out. If Marietta stays ahead of ONU, then I think ONU's chances are very slim on getting in.

Something to consider is that I am not looking at the selections through an algorithm that Fantastic50 is. I am adjusting per conversations I have with committee members and what I see them doing. I am certainly not more right or wrong nor is F50's system... I just come from a different point of view.

As for the question about the GL having three hosts, no I don't see that happening. I don't see the committee needing a third host. Men have priority in the first weekend, so there isn't any shifting around like we saw last year. Furthermore, they may need an additional host somewhere else depending on who comes out of the Texas conferences, the West Region scenarios, and even the Northeast/East Coast situations.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Let me also add, I dive into everything more in the next 48 hours than anything. I try not to get distracted with other predictions and the rankings until now. Too much to keep track of and get distracted by. I will spend a lot of time in the next three days going over numbers, positions, and results to figure out where things stand... before figuring out what I can #gleen (for Hoopsville fans) ahead of our selections show on Sunday.

[sac]

"punch their ticket" implies you think they have a C bid, they would have 9 losses after losing to JCU vs 6 for Marietta.  They are 1-2 head-to-head vs Marietta that's a big gap to fill with a lesser SOS as well.   That's just not happening.

ONU is way down the list nationally in criteria.  Even if they jumped Marietta some how they probably wouldn't get picked.  That would be Marietta's nightmare.

[kiltedbryan]

My question, can JCU host with a win on Saturday?  I still think they need Wooster to lose, preferably in the semis, to host over Wooster. Witt has home games regardless. I think JCU has an outside chance of jumping Wooster if Wooster makes the finals and loses.

I think if JCU and Wooster have identical weeks (e.g., both go 2-1 or 3-0), then most likely Wooster stays ahead of JCU and remains GL#2. In these scenarios, Wooster's existing SOS advantage (.560 vs .534 at the start of the week) and extra vRRO win provides the difference. There's not much else for the committee to go on: they didn't play head-to-head, and (unless I missed it) played no common opponents.

What's fun is if they have different weeks.

Looking at the scenarios:

Wooster loses tomorrow (1-1 week), JCU wins Saturday (3-0). Advantage JCU
Woo would be 21-6 (.778) 6-3 vRRO
JCU would be 23-5 (.821), 7-2 vRRO
Woo maybe retains a slight SOS edge here...but the other criteria favor JCU and it's the more likely GL#2 and host.

Wooster loses Saturday (2-1 week), JCU wins Saturday (3-0). Coin flip
Woo would be 22-6 (.785) 7-3 vRRO
JCU would be 23-5 (.821), 7-2 vRRO
Woo probably retains a SOS edge here which would

counterbalance JCU's better winning percentage. So, this is a coin flip - I think either one is defensible as GL#2 and a host.

Wooster wins out (3-0 week), JCU loses Saturday (2-1). Advantage Wooster
Woo would be 23-5 (.821) 8-2 vRRO
JCU would be 22-6 (.785), 6-3 vRRO
Woo definitely retains the SOS lead here, too, and would be GL#2 and likely host.