Great Lakes Region

[sac]

Right now the 6 teams in line to host from the Great Lakes/Central/West Regions

Wittenberg
JCU/Wooster---one but not both will host
WashU
Plattevillle
St. John's
Whitman


Whitman is irrelevant to this part of the country for bracketing.  We frequently but not always need a 6th bracket in the Midwest, that might look good at the CCIW winner if its IWU or Augustana.  Maybe a possibility Augustana and Platteville flip ranking positions if Augie wins CCIW and Platteville doesn't win WIAC.  In that case Platteville becomes an attractive place for that extra bracket.  Except for the fact its so close to Augustana, that might be a problem.  Then it might go to IWU.

Even Wheaton or North Central as CCIW tournament champion could be in the hosting picture.  Fascinatingly complicated for the extra bracket if they need it.

[fantastic50]

I have been going back and forth, actually. The fact ONU is right behind Marietta makes me think they are close in the eyes of the committee(s). ONU now has a win over Marietta (1-2 on the season) and will improve their vRRO most likely to 4-5 (considering another loss in this conversation). I think the WL and SOS conversation between the two will wash each other out and not be a factor, leaving this with the other criteria.

I could see a reason that ONU moves ahead of Marietta; I could see a reason that they stay stuck behind Marietta.

If they move ahead of Marietta, ONU WILL get to the table to be considered. That is half the battle. That also could leave Marietta out. If Marietta stays ahead of ONU, then I think ONU's chances are very slim on getting in.

Something to consider is that I am not looking at the selections through an algorithm that Fantastic50 is. I am adjusting per conversations I have with committee members and what I see them doing. I am certainly not more right or wrong nor is F50's system... I just come from a different point of view.

I respect Dave's expert opinion, as someone who has long followed D3 basketball closely, and has frequent opportunities to talk with folks on the regional committees.  Goodness knows those of us in predictive modeling have the tendency toward overconfidence (the 2008 market crash and 2016 presidential election come to mind), by downplaying even the unknowns we are aware of, much less the "unknown unknowns". 

That being said, it's hard for me to see the justification for Ohio Northern jumping Marietta, if the Polar Bears lose tomorrow.  My thought is that there has been a chasm between #4 and #5 in the region, and that one game won't close the gap.  Here are the numbers, again assuming an ONU loss tomorrow...

Marietta 21-6 (.779 WP), .563 SOS, 4-5 vRRO (wins vs Hope, vs ONU, at BW, at ONU)
Ohio Northern 19-9 (.679 WP), .551 SOS, 4-5 vRRO (wins vs Keene St, at BW, vs BW, at Etta)

I think that the WP difference is too big, given the similar SOS & vRRO numbers and the Pioneers holding the 2-1 head-to-head advantage.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

I have been going back and forth, actually. The fact ONU is right behind Marietta makes me think they are close in the eyes of the committee(s). ONU now has a win over Marietta (1-2 on the season) and will improve their vRRO most likely to 4-5 (considering another loss in this conversation). I think the WL and SOS conversation between the two will wash each other out and not be a factor, leaving this with the other criteria.

I could see a reason that ONU moves ahead of Marietta; I could see a reason that they stay stuck behind Marietta.

If they move ahead of Marietta, ONU WILL get to the table to be considered. That is half the battle. That also could leave Marietta out. If Marietta stays ahead of ONU, then I think ONU's chances are very slim on getting in.

Something to consider is that I am not looking at the selections through an algorithm that Fantastic50 is. I am adjusting per conversations I have with committee members and what I see them doing. I am certainly not more right or wrong nor is F50's system... I just come from a different point of view.

I respect Dave's expert opinion, as someone who has long followed D3 basketball closely, and has frequent opportunities to talk with folks on the regional committees.  Goodness knows those of us in predictive modeling have the tendency toward overconfidence (the 2008 market crash and 2016 presidential election come to mind), by downplaying even the unknowns we are aware of, much less the "unknown unknowns". 

That being said, it's hard for me to see the justification for Ohio Northern jumping Marietta, if the Polar Bears lose tomorrow.  My thought is that there has been a chasm between #4 and #5 in the region, and that one game won't close the gap.  Here are the numbers, again assuming an ONU loss tomorrow...

Marietta 21-6 (.779 WP), .563 SOS, 4-5 vRRO (wins vs Hope, vs ONU, at BW, at ONU)
Ohio Northern 19-9 (.679 WP), .551 SOS, 4-5 vRRO (wins vs Keene St, at BW, vs BW, at Etta)

I think that the WP difference is too big, given the similar SOS & vRRO numbers and the Pioneers holding the 2-1 head-to-head advantage.

I am with you, Drew.  I think that and have thought that there is a large gap between 4 and 5 for much of the past 2-3 weeks.  That is not based on anything other than looking at the numbers.   I also thought that heading into this week 2-4 (Woo, JCU and Etta) were VERY closely grouped.  Now Etta is out of the conversation to move up. 

[pennstghs]

Do you think if Witt can hold off Ohio Wesleyan today that would be good enough for them to possibly host for both of the next two weekends? It most likely depends on how the bracket shakes out but Springfield is a pretty central location to a lot of places in the U.S.

[sac]

Witt looks good to host round 1 and 2 regardless of tonight imo, after that it depends on how the tournament shakes out.  They would most likely be in good shape to be considered for hosting a Sectional.

That is contingent on if if Witt filed paperwork to be a host site.

[fantastic50]

Found a coding issue that made my model overconfident; fixing it gives OWU (9%) and B-W (2%) a glimmer of hope for a Pool C berth, but they are far enough down the list that I don't see it happening.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Thanks. So your telling me there is a chance.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Witt looks good to host round 1 and 2 regardless of tonight imo, after that it depends on how the tournament shakes out.  They would most likely be in good shape to be considered for hosting a Sectional.

That is contingent on if if Witt filed paperwork to be a host site.

Isn't that AD Malpractice if they failed to do that in the midst of what was an undefeated season into February?

[sac]

Witt looks good to host round 1 and 2 regardless of tonight imo, after that it depends on how the tournament shakes out.  They would most likely be in good shape to be considered for hosting a Sectional.

That is contingent on if if Witt filed paperwork to be a host site.

Isn't that AD Malpractice if they failed to do that in the midst of what was an undefeated season into February?

I only mention this because we've ran into schools that had scheduling conflicts and didn't file paper work.  Its a rare thing. 

I think Witt is pretty familiar with the hosting process.

[Fifth and Putnam]

@ Baltimore
La Roche @ Johns Hopkins

@ Springfield
Wittenberg vs. Misericordia
Marietta vs. UW-Oshkosh

@ Atlanta
Hanover vs. LaTourneau

@ Rock Island
Hope vs. Augsburg

@ University Heights
JCU vs. Thomas More
Wooster vs. Illinois Wesleyan

[sac]

Do you think if Witt can hold off Ohio Wesleyan today that would be good enough for them to possibly host for both of the next two weekends? It most likely depends on how the bracket shakes out but Springfield is a pretty central location to a lot of places in the U.S.

revisiting this, the bracket suggests Witt is in line to host both weekends if they win their pod

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Do you think if Witt can hold off Ohio Wesleyan today that would be good enough for them to possibly host for both of the next two weekends? It most likely depends on how the bracket shakes out but Springfield is a pretty central location to a lot of places in the U.S.

revisiting this, the bracket suggests Witt is in line to host both weekends if they win their pod

Agreed.  If all of the hosts win, it is just one flight.  Emory is a flight at 545 miles but Augustana is just 435 miles and JCU is a quick trip down 71 and across 70.  It appears this bracket was built around the assumption that Witt wins as nearly all of the other more plausible scenarios involve two flights in an area that really should not need them.  John Carroll and Augustana are 503 miles apart.  John Carroll and Emory are 717 miles apart.  Emory and Augustana are 789 miles apart. 

https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

[sac]

Great Lakes AQ's, 4 are different than last year
OAC    John Carroll
NCAC  Wittenberg
MIAA   Hope
PAC    Thomas More
AMCC  LaRoche
HCAC  Hanover




Great Lakes Pool C's

2008--Capital, Wooster
2009--Capital, Carnegie-Mellon
2010--John Carroll
2011--Wittenberg, PSU-Behrend
2012--Wittenberg, Ohio Wesleyan
2013--Wooster
2014--Hope, Wittenberg, Ohio Wesleyan
2015--Marietta, John Carroll, Ohio Wesleyan, Wooster
2016--Marietta, Ohio Wesleyan, Wooster, Hope
2017--Hope
2018--Wooster, Marietta

HCAC teams  Anderson(2010), Hanover(2011), Transylvania(2012, 2013) received Pool C's from the Midwest Region.

NCAC--12
OAC--7
MIAA--3
UAA--1
AMCC--1
PAC--0
HCAC--4 (all from Midwest Region)

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Final Great Lakes Regional Rankings

1 Wittenberg 25-2 26-2  - Pool A
2 John Carroll 23-5 23-5 - Pool A
3 Marietta 21-6 21-6 -Pool C
4 Wooster 21-6 21-6  - Pool C
5 Ohio Northern 19-9 19-9 - left at the table
6 Ohio Wesleyan 19-9 19-9 - never at the table
7 Baldwin Wallace 18-9 18-9 - never at the table
8 Hope 16-8 18-9 - Pool A
9 Hanover 20-6 22-6 - Pool A

http://d3hoops.com/notables/2018/02/men-regional-rankings-final

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Final Great Lakes Regional Rankings

1 Wittenberg 25-2 26-2  - Pool A
2 John Carroll 23-5 23-5 - Pool A
3 Marietta 21-6 21-6 -Pool C
4 Wooster 21-6 21-6  - Pool C
5 Ohio Northern 19-9 19-9 - left at the table
6 Ohio Wesleyan 19-9 19-9 - never at the table
7 Baldwin Wallace 18-9 18-9 - never at the table
8 Hope 16-8 18-9 - Pool A
9 Hanover 20-6 22-6 - never at the table

http://d3hoops.com/notables/2018/02/men-regional-rankings-final

While technically correct that Hanover was never at the table that was because they were Pool A