Great Lakes Region

[fantastic50]

At the moment, the. 615 WP is a problem, but if they keep winning, they'll certainly get ranked.

quote author=Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) link=topic=5126.msg1914994#msg1914994 date=1547033651]

With those numbers, Transy definitely gets ranked over Albion.
[/quote]

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I was looking more at the actual records at this point.  With so few games the percentages can skew pretty quickly.  Two losses isn't going to be too much for that SOS.  Committees have irrational hatred for SOS numbers under .500 remember.

[fantastic50]

Two teams off to surprising starts continue to look impressive tonight.  Capital shoots a high percentage at Marietta, and comes away with the victory, 82-78.  Wabash beats Wittenberg 96-83, in a game that was all but over by early in the second half.  Both the Crusaders and the Little Giants now have sole possession of first place in their respective conferences.

However, LaRoche is trailing Franciscan at halftime, 39-34.

[Fifth and Putnam]

Wooster to Host Third Annual Great Lakes Invitational this December

http://www.woosterathletics.com/sports/mbkb/2018-19/releases/20190108hilehm

[smedindy]

Two teams off to surprising starts continue to look impressive tonight.  Capital shoots a high percentage at Marietta, and comes away with the victory, 82-78.  Wabash beats Wittenberg 96-83, in a game that was all but over by early in the second half.  Both the Crusaders and the Little Giants now have sole possession of first place in their respective conferences.

However, LaRoche is trailing Franciscan at halftime, 39-34.

They did come back and win against the formerly moribund now just mediocre Franciscan.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The grind of conference play is in full gear. Nothing beats a team up or reveals how good one is like the grind of conference play.

Thursday night on Hoopsville we take a look at the grind and how teams are surviving, surprising, and even impressing as the holidays and the break quickly become a distant memory in the rear view mirror.

The first of the season's "WBCA Center Court" segments also debuts with the dedication of one coach off the court and with her family. UW-Platteville women's coach Megan Wilson talks about her daughter's battle with cancer and the decision to step away from coaching to help her daughter fight.

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- Alyssa Polosky, No. 14 SUNY Geneseo women's head coach
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[CollegeGolf18]

Now that we are at the mid-point of the NCAC season...with 8 conference games to go it is shaping up to be a really good race between Wabash (8-0) and Wooster (7-1).

I do believe if Wabash wins at Wooster, they will win conference. I just don't see 3 other losses on the schedule.

[gobrits]

Wednesday, January 19

Kalamazoo at Calvin — 4
Trine at Albion — 3
Adrian at Olivet — 2
Hope at Alma — 1

[fantastic50]

If regional rankings were coming out this early, I would predict the following...

1) Capital (13-2, 8-0 OAC, 0.867 WP, 0.570 SOS), won at Marietta
2) Marietta (13-2, 7-1 OAC, 0.867 WP, 0.542 SOS)
3) Wabash (12-1, 8-0 NCAC, 0.923 WP, 0.507 SOS), won vs Wooster
4) Wooster (12-3, 7-1 NCAC, 0.800 WP, 0.566 SOS)
5) La_Roche (14-2, 9-0 AMCC, 0.875 WP, 0.513 SOS)
6) Wittenberg (10-4, 5-3 NCAC, 0.714 WP, 0.545 SOS)
7) Mount Union (13-2, 7-1 OAC, 0.867 WP, 0.488 SOS)
8) Albion (11-3, 4-0 MIAA, 0.786 WP, 0.490 SOS)
9) Baldwin Wallace (10-5, 4-4 OAC, 0.667 WP, 0.532 SOS)
----------
10) Wilmington (9-5, 5-3 OAC, 0.643 WP, 0.543 SOS)
11) Rose-Hulman (9-5, 6-2 HCAC, 0.643 WP, 0.522 SOS)
12) Penn_State-Behrend (13-2, 7-2 AMCC, 0.867 WP, 0.457 SOS)

The top four currently look pretty good for Pool C berths (if needed), but there is a steep drop after that.  Witt and Mount can likely afford only one or two more regular-season losses, or else they likely will need to win their conference tournaments.

[fantastic50]

My projections on conference races at the moment...

OAC: Capital 16-2 (64% to get the #1 seed), Marietta 14-4 (21%), Mt Union 14-4 (15%), Wilm 10-8, B-W 10-8
NCAC: Wabash 16-2 (65%), Wooster 15-3 (35%), Witt 11-7, Oberlin 10-8
MIAA: Albion 11-3 (43%), Olivet 10-4 (29%), Trine 9-5 (16%), Hope 8-6 (7%), Calvin 7-7
AMCC: LaRoche 16-2 (82%), PSU-Behrend 14-4 (17%), Mt. Aloysius 10-8, Medaille 10-8
HCAC: Hanover, Rose-Hulman, Bluffton, & Translyvania all 13-5 (slight edge to Hanover)
PAC: St Vincent 14-2 (84%), Grove City 10-6, Chatham 9-7, W&J 9-7

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The Hoopsville Marathon Show ... is tomorrow!

Tune in starting at 12:00 p.m. ET as we talk to guests from around the country about nothing but #d3hoops.

It is all about celebrating the season, student-athletes, coaches, and an exciting season.

For more information, click here: http://bit.ly/2HGx0N3

We will share more about the show a little later.

[sac]

Just in time for your first rankings on Wednesday a few significant upsets around the region this first weekend of February.

OAC:  John Carroll 88  Capital 69  --Capital/Marietta now tied
NCAC:  Allegheny 80  Wabash 68  --Wooster now with 1 game lead
HCAC:  Anderson 79  Hanover 74  -- back to a 1 game lead
PAC:  Westminster 87  St. Vincent 80  --St. V has already clinched a share of PAC, loss affects their regional ranking spot I would think.
MIAA:  Kzoo 82  Olivet 81  -- Trine now has a 1 game lead over Albion
AMCC:  no upsets

[fantastic50]

While it sounds like the regional & national committees may be looking at team resumes through a slightly different lens this year, here's my prediction of the first round of regional rankings.

1) Capital (17-4, 12-2 OAC, 0.810 WP, 0.530 SOS, 0.535 ncSOS) - swept Marietta, lost to Witt
2) Wooster (18-3, 13-1 NCAC, 0.857 WP, 0.536 SOS, 0.544 ncSOS) - split with Wabash, beat Witt
3) Marietta (18-3, 12-2 OAC, 0.857 WP, 0.548 SOS, 0.578 ncSOS) - swept by Capital, beat Witt & La Roche
4) Wabash (16-3, 12-2 NCAC, 0.842 WP, 0.520 SOS, 0.492 ncSOS) - split with Wooster, beat Witt
5) Wittenberg (15-5, 10-4 NCAC, 0.750 WP, 0.517 SOS, 0.541 ncSOS) - 1-3 vs higher-ranked teams (beat Capital)
6) La Roche (19-2, 14-0 AMCC, 0.905 WP, 0.504 SOS, 0.549 ncSOS) - lost to Marietta, swept PS-B, no other notable wins
7) Mount Union (17-4, 11-3 OAC, 0.810 WP, 0.491 SOS, 0.408 ncSOS) - lost to Cap & Marietta, swept Wilmington
8) Wilmington (14-6, 10-4 OAC, 0.700 WP, 0.533 SOS, 0.503 ncSOS) - 1-5 vs higher-ranked teams (beat Wabash)
9) Hanover (14-5, 11-3 HCAC, 0.737 WP, 0.500 SOS, 0.512 ncSOS) - no great non-conf wins (lost to Wooster)
----------
Albion (14-5, 7-2 MIAA, 0.737 WP, 0.488 SOS, 0.513 ncSOS) - beat Capital & Chicago, maybe should be #9
St. Vincent (16-3, 11-1 PAC, 0.842 WP, 0.458 SOS, 0.473 ncSOS) - only one quality win (Hood)
Penn State-Behrend (18-3, 11-3 AMCC, 0.857 WP, 0.467 SOS, 0.386 ncSOS) - no quality wins

[wooscotsfan]

Fantastic50 - thanks for your computer projection which I always find very helpful! 

As another point of reference, here are the current Massey ratings for some of the top Great Lakes teams:

#8   Wooster 18-3
#9   Marietta 18-3
#12 Capital 17-4
#19 Wabash 18-3
#24 Mt. Union 17-4
#33 La Roche 19-2
#34 Wilmington 14-6
#37 Wittenberg 16-5
#56 Trine 15-5
#69 Albion 14-6
#83 Hanover 16-5
#84 PSU-Behrend 18-3
#142 St. Vincent 18-3

I didn't list any GL teams that have more than 6 losses because it is unlikely that the NCAA will include them in the regional rankings this week.
Massey does utilize strength of schedule but some of the exhibition game results seem to be included in their numbers so not 100% accurate.

Here is the Massey link: https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/ncaa-d3/ratings

[sac]

While it sounds like the regional & national committees may be looking at team resumes through a slightly different lens this year, here's my prediction of the first round of regional rankings.

1) Capital (17-4, 12-2 OAC, 0.810 WP, 0.530 SOS, 0.535 ncSOS) - swept Marietta, lost to Witt
2) Wooster (18-3, 13-1 NCAC, 0.857 WP, 0.536 SOS, 0.544 ncSOS) - split with Wabash, beat Witt
3) Marietta (18-3, 12-2 OAC, 0.857 WP, 0.548 SOS, 0.578 ncSOS) - swept by Capital, beat Witt & La Roche
4) Wabash (16-3, 12-2 NCAC, 0.842 WP, 0.520 SOS, 0.492 ncSOS) - split with Wooster, beat Witt
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5) Wittenberg (15-5, 10-4 NCAC, 0.750 WP, 0.517 SOS, 0.541 ncSOS) - 1-3 vs higher-ranked teams (beat Capital)
6) La Roche (19-2, 14-0 AMCC, 0.905 WP, 0.504 SOS, 0.549 ncSOS) - lost to Marietta, swept PS-B, no other notable wins
7) Mount Union (17-4, 11-3 OAC, 0.810 WP, 0.491 SOS, 0.408 ncSOS) - lost to Cap & Marietta, swept Wilmington
8) Wilmington (14-6, 10-4 OAC, 0.700 WP, 0.533 SOS, 0.503 ncSOS) - 1-5 vs higher-ranked teams (beat Wabash)
9) Hanover (14-5, 11-3 HCAC, 0.737 WP, 0.500 SOS, 0.512 ncSOS) - no great non-conf wins (lost to Wooster)
----------
Albion (14-5, 7-2 MIAA, 0.737 WP, 0.488 SOS, 0.513 ncSOS) - beat Capital & Chicago, maybe should be #9
St. Vincent (16-3, 11-1 PAC, 0.842 WP, 0.458 SOS, 0.473 ncSOS) - only one quality win (Hood)
Penn State-Behrend (18-3, 11-3 AMCC, 0.857 WP, 0.467 SOS, 0.386 ncSOS) - no quality wins

Drew the red line where the Pool C cutoff is probably at.  Over on the Pool C thread Fantastic50 has Wittenberg in the "Work ahead" category.  Looking at their schedule Wittenberg probably needs to beat either Wooster(Sat) or Wabash(next Wed) plus their other two games to advance their shot at a C.    Not sure just winning a semi-final game against either Wabash/Wooster would do enough for them as a C candidate with 8 losses.   7 they might be ok.